Analysis of the Impact of the Decline in Crude Oil Imports on the Japanese Economy

In Japan, crude oil use depends almost exclusively on imports, mainly from the Middle East. Therefore, guaranteeing crude oil imports is an important issue for the Japanese energy policy. To analyze the impact of a decrease in crude oil imports, two features of crude oil as an energy good should be taken into consideration, namely being a factor of production in the energy sector and feedstock in petroleum and coal products. This study uses the GTAP and GTAP-E models to evaluate the impact of the decrease in crude oil imports in Japan, applying the same methodology and exogenous values, and analyzes the difference of the simulation results between the two models. In Japan, crude oil is used in two sectors： as feedstock in petroleum and coal products, and as a factor of production in the electricity sector. When energy goods are used as feedstock, the GTAP model, in which energy goods are treated as intermediate inputs with fixed coefficients, is suitable for analysis. The GTAP-E model, which incorporates an energy substitution structure into the GTAP model, is, on the other hand, suitable for analyzing energy goods when they are used as a factor of production. Furthermore, this study uses both a static analysis and an analysis incorporating capital accumulation effects to evaluate short-term, as well as medium to long-term impacts. The simulation results clearly indicate that, in the GTAP-E model, when crude oil imports from the Middle East decrease, Japan attempts to increase its crude oil imports from other regions, but by less than in the case of the GTAP model. The results of this study show that, for energy goods used mainly as feedstock, such as crude oil, analysis with fixed coefficients presents more realistic simulation results than those using the energy substitution structure.

Low Oil Prices Drive up China's Crude Oil Imports

China’s crude oil imports hit a record high in the first half of 2016 despite an economic slowdown,and analysts largely attributed the surge to low prices,not strategic maneuvering.The country imported 186.5 million tons of crude oil in the first half of the year,23.15 million

China Crude Oil Imports and Oil Market-oriented Reform

Crude oil imports in China are mainly carried out by state-owned entities with non state-owned entities as compliment. Crude imported by 5 state-owned entities accounts for 90% of the total imports, while non state-owned entities are about given more freedom in using and importing crude. In 2015 only, there were 13 compauies graftted rcritlt access to imported crude oil and 6welv qualiied to import rights. Currently, there are 29 non-state-owned companies engaging in crude import business. China oil market is .faced with severe challenges. Ttre growth rate of oil demand declined, and dependence upon imported oil increased and reached as high as 61.26% in 2015. Refined oil demand growth also slowed down, and oil refining overcapacity got prominent and completion wouht become fiercer＂ in future. Overcapacity was about 140 million toils per year in 2015. Consumption ratio of diesel to gasoline went on declining, and ttre task of product structure adjustment was heavy. China oil market is undergoing great transformation, and institutional mechanism zoill go ahead, on the basis of centering on orderly release of limitations on crude oil and refined oil import and export, orderly release of competitive business arrd government pricing of oil/gas downstream links, vigorous resolving of overcapacity, strengthening low-carbon development, and laying a solid foundation.for guarantee.

The potential of domestic production and imports of oil and gas in China:an energy return on investment perspective

Concerns about China’s energy security have escalated because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, so it is necessary to calculate the availability of domestic oil and gas resources and China’s ability to obtain foreign energy through trade. In this work,the calculation was done by using the energy return on investment（EROI） method. The results showed that the EROIstnd（i.e., standard EROI） of China’s oil and gas extraction decreased from approximately 17.3：1 in 1986 to 8.4：1 in 2003, but it increased to 12.2：1 in 2013. From a company-level perspective, the EROIstnddiffered for different companies and was in the range of（8–12）：1. The EROI2,d（EROI considering energy outputs after processed and direct energy inputs） for different companies was in the range of（3–7）：1. The EROI of imported oil（EROIIO）declined from 14.8：1 in 1998 to approximately 4.8：1 in 2014, and the EROI of imported natural gas（EROIING）declined from 16.7：1 in 2009 to 8.6：1 in 2014. In 2015, the EROIIO and EROIING showed a slight increase due to decreasing import prices. In general, this paper suggests that from a net energy perspective, it has become more difficult for China to obtain oil and gas from both domestic production and imports. China is experiencing an EROI decline, which demonstrates the risk in the use of unsustainable fossil resources.

Analysis on the spatial pattern and evolution of China's petroleum trade under the dual effect of international oil price and “Belt and Road” Framework

“Belt and Road” is the important origin of oil import in China. Based on social network analysis and stochastic frontier gravity model, this paper studied the characteristic evolution and influence factor of oil import network between China and “Belt and Road” countries. Then by constructing a stochastic frontier gravity model including the crude oil future price and oil importing price, it found that the international crude oil future price, the oil importing price, the political situation, the trade agreements have the effects on the China's oil import from “Belt and Road” region. It provided suggestions for improving the spatial pattern of China's petroleum trade.

Divisia Decomposition Method and Its Application to Changes of Net Oil Import Intensity

The existing oil import dependence index cannot exactly measure the economic cost or scales, and it is difficult to describe the economical aspect of oil security. To measure the foreign dependence of one country's economy and reflect its oil economic security, this paper defines the net oil import intensity as the ratio of net oil import cost to GDP. By using Divisia Index Decomposition, the change of net oil import intensity in five industrialized countries and five newly industrialized countries during 1971—2010 is decomposed into five factors: oil price, oil intensity, oil self-sufficiency, domestic price level and exchange rate. The result shows that the dominating factors are oil price and oil intensity; moreover, the newly industrialized countries have higher net oil import intensity than industrialized countries.

Analysis of China's Oil and Gas Policy in 2015

The reforms in oil and gas sector have been accelerated in 2015. The reform of mineral rights has begun and 6 oil and gas exploration zones in Xinjiang Autonomous Region have served as the tender pilots, breaking through the requirements on the resources varieties, exploration phase and enterprise qual!fication. The right of importing and using of the crude oil has been gradually relaxed and 13 local refineries have obtained the right to use imported crude oil of 55.1888 million tons per year. The natural gas price for non-residential use was unified and a universal price was set ~r the incremental supply and existing supply. Tire Shanghai Petroleum and Gas Exchange （SHPGX） was established and laid foundation for the market mechanism to detervnine the price. The government governance has undergone continuous adjustments such as regulating the tax instead of charging the fees, streamlining administration and delegating power to tire lower levels.The Guidelines on Deepening tire Reform of State-owned Enterprises was released, symbolizing the accomplishment of the overall planning ~ the SOE reform.

China Top Oil Importer Status Overrated

Media reports of China surpassing the United States as the world’s biggest oil importer as shown by data from a U.S.government agency were somewhat overrated.Recently published data by the U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA)showed that net imports of the United States and China stood at 6.24 million and 6.3million barrels per day in September of 2013,respectively.The EIA further forecast that China will start overtaking the United States by October 2013 on a monthly basis and by 2014 on an annual basis in terms of net oil imports.

Analysis on Policies of Oil and Gas in China

The Government has actively introduced oil and gas policies to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the industry it, 2017. The purposes of such policies are： to accelerate the reform of mineral resource royalties and advance the competitive transfer of mining rights; to promote the reform of the natural gas price, introduce cost supervision on long-distance natural gas pipeline enterprises in the area of gas pipeline transportation, and strengthen the regulation qf the distribution price; to liberalize the import qf crude oil in an orderly manner, increase the allowable volume of non-state trading crude oil imports, strengthen the supervision and periodically pause the approval of the right to use imported crude oil; and to enhance environmental protection.

Kazakhstan-China Pipeline Pours 4 Million Tons of Oil into China in 1st Year

China has imported 4 million tons of oil through the Kazakhstan-China pipeline in its first year of operation, customs officials said.