Prediction of NFT Sale Price Fluctuations on OpenSea Using Machine Learning Approaches

The rapid expansion of the non-fungible token(NFT)market has attracted many investors.However,studies on the NFT price fluctuations have been relatively limited.To date,the machine learning approach has not been used to demonstrate a specific error in NFT sale price fluctuation prediction.The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for NFT price fluctuations using the NFT trading information obtained from OpenSea,the world’s largest NFT marketplace.We used Python programs to collect data and summarized them as:NFT information,collection information,and related account information.AdaBoost and Random Forest(RF)algorithms were employed to predict the sale price and price fluctuation of NFTs using regression and classification models,respectively.We found that the NFT related account information,especially the number of favorites and activity status of creators,confer a good predictive power to both the models.AdaBoost in the regression model had more accurate predictions,the root mean square error(RMSE)in predicting NFT sale price was 0.047.In predicting NFT sale price fluctuations,RF performed better,which the area under the curve(AUC)reached 0.956.We suggest that investors should pay more attention to the information of NFT creators.We anticipate that these prediction models will reduce the number of investment failures for the investors.

Random vortex induced vibration response of suspended flexible cable to fluctuating wind

A popular dynamical model for the vortex induced vibration(VIV)of a suspended flexible cable consists of two coupled equations.The first equation is a partial differential equation governing the cable vibration.The second equation is a wake oscillator that models the lift coefficient acting on the cable.The incoming wind acting on the cable is usually assumed as the uniform wind with a constant velocity,which makes the VIV model be a deterministic one.In the real world,however,the wind velocity is randomly fluctuant and makes the VIV of a suspended flexible cable be treated as a random vibration.In the present paper,the deterministic VIV model of a suspended flexible cable is modified to a random one by introducing the fluctuating wind.Using the normal mode approach,the random VIV system is transformed into an infinite-dimensional modal vibration system.Depending on whether a modal frequency is close to the aeolian frequency or not,the corresponding modal vibration is characterized as a resonant vibration or a non-resonant vibration.By applying the stochastic averaging method of quasi Hamiltonian systems,the response of modal vibrations in the case of resonance or non-resonance can be analytically predicted.Then,the random VIV response of the whole cable can be approximately calculated by superimposing the response of the most influential modal vibrations.Some numerical simulation results confirm the obtained analytical results.It is found that the intensity of the resonant modal vibration is much higher than that of the non-resonant modal vibration.Thus,the analytical results of the resonant modal vibration can be used as a rough estimation for the whole response of a cable.

Calculation of Scale of Fluctuation and Variance Reduction Function

The scale of fluctuation is one of the vital parameters for the application of random field theory to the reliability analysis of geotechnical engineering. In the present study, the fluctuation function method and weighted curve fitting method were presented to make the calculation more simple and accurate. The vertical scales of fluctuation of typical layers of Tianjin Port were calculated based on a number of engineering geotechnical investigation data, which can be guidance to other projects in this area. Meanwhile, the influences of sample interval and type of soil index on the scale of fluctuation were analyzed, according to which, the principle of determining the scale of fluctuation when the sample interval changes was defined. It can be obtained that the scale of fluctuation is the basic attribute reflecting spatial variability of soil, therefore, the scales of fluctuation calculated according to different soil indexes should be basically the same. The non-correlation distance method was improved, and the principle of determining the variance reduction function was also discussed.

Application of Random Process in Soil Profile Modeling

When using the random process in soil profile modeling, the stationary and ergodicity of the soil properties in the profile must be tested. This paper describes a procedure for stationary and ergodicity testing. Numerical examples were given for demonstration. A log-cosine function is suggested to simulate the correlation function, which has been proved to be good for soil profile modeling.

Hydrodynamic Interactions Introduce Differences in the Behaviour of a Ratchet Dimer Brownian Motor

We use the Brownian dynamics with hydrodynamic interactions simulation in order to describe the movement of an elastically coupled dimer Brownian motor in a ratchet potential. The only external forces considered in our system were the load, the random thermal noise and an unbiased thermal fluctuation. We observe differences in the dynamic behaviour if hydrodynamic interactions are considered as compared with the case without them. In conclusion, hydrodynamic interactions influence substantially the dynamics of a ratchet dimer Brownian motor;consequently they have to be considered in any theory where the molecular motors are in a liquid medium.

The Harmonic Oscillator with Random Damping in Non-Markovian Thermal Bath

In this paper, we define the harmonic oscillator with random damping in non-Markovian thermal bath. This model represents new version of the random oscillators. In this side, we derive the overdamped harmonic oscillator with multiplicative colored noise and translate it into the additive colored noise by changing the variables. The overdamped harmonic oscillator is stochastic differential equation driving by colored noise. We derive the change in the total entropy production (CTEP) of the model and calculate the mean and variance. We show the fluctuation theorem (FT) which is invalid at any order in the time correlation. The problem of the deriving of the CTEP is studied in two different examples of the harmonic potential. Finally, we give the conclusion and plan for future works.

A Statistical Method for Characterizing CMOS Process Fluctuations in Subthreshold Current Mirrors

A novel method to characterize CMOS process fluctuations in subthreshold current mirrors （SCM） is reported. The proposed model is succinct in methodology and calculation complexity compared with previous statistical models. However,it provides favorable estimations of CMOS process fluctuations on the SCM circuit, which makes it promising for engineering applications. The model statistically abstracts physical parameters, which depend on the IC process, into random variables with certain mean values and standard deviations, while aggregating all the random impacts into a discrete martingale. The correctness of the proposed method is experimentally verified on an SCM circuit implemented in an SMIC 0.18μm CMOS 1P6M mixed signal process with a conversion factor of 100 in an input range from 100pA to lμA. The pro- posed theory successfully predicts - 10% of die-to-die fluctuation measured in the experiment, and also suggests the -lmV of threshold voltage standard deviation over a single die,which meets the process parameters suggested by the design kit from the foundry. The deviations between calculated probabilities and measured data are less than 8%. Meanwhile, pertinent suggestions concerning high fluctuation tolerance subthreshold analog circuit design are also made and discussed.

Discrete Element Method Numerical Modelling on Crystallization of Smooth Hard Spheres under Mechanical Vibration

The crystallization, corresponding to the fcc structure （with packing density p≈0.74）, of smooth equal hard spheres under batch-wised feeding and three-dimensional interval vibration is numerically obtained by using the discrete element method. The numerical experiment shows that the ordered packing can be realized by proper control of the dynamic parameters such as batch of each feeding ε and vibration amplitude A. The radial distribution function and force network are used to characterize the ordered structure. The defect formed during vibrated packing is characterized as well. The results in our work fill the gap of getting packing density between random close packing and fcc packing in phase diagram which provides an effective way of theoretically investigating the complex process and mechanism of hard sphere crystallization and its dynamics.

Random failure mechanism method for assessment of working platform bearing capacity with a linear trend in undrained shear strength

A bearing capacity evaluation for the surface strip foundation on a working platform modelled on a twolayered substrate is considered in the study.The upper layer is assumed as man-made and wellcontrolled and thus non-variable.The lower layer modelling natural cohesive soil is subjected to spatial variability of undrained shear strength.The random failure mechanism method(RFMM)is used to evaluate the bearing capacity.This approach employs a kinematic assessment of the critical load and incorporates the averaging of three-dimensional(3 D)random field along dissipation surfaces that result from the failure mechanism geometry.A novel version of the approach considering an additional linear trend of undrained shear strength in the spatially variable layer is proposed.The high efficiency of the RFMM algorithm is preserved.The influences of foundation length,trend slope in the spatially variable layer,fluctuation scales,and thickness of the homogenous sand layer on the resulting bearing capacity evaluations are analysed.Moreover,for selected cases,verification of the RFMM based assessment obtained using random finite difference method(RFDM)based on 3 D analysis is provided.Two types of analyses are performed using RFDM based on associated and non-associated flow rules.For associated flow rule which corresponds to RFMM,the RFMM is conservative and efficient and thus it seems preferable.However,if RFDM employs non-associated flow rule(much lower dilation angle for sand layer),the efficient RFMM is no longer conservative.For this situation,a combined approach that improves the efficiency of the numerical method is suggested.

Spontaneous Emission of an Inertial Multi-Level Atom in a Spacetime with a Reflecting Plane Boundary

We calculate the contributions of the vacuum fluctuations and radiation reaction to the rate of change of the mean atomic energy for a multi-level hydrogen atom in the multipolar coupling scheme in a spacetime with a reflecting boundary. Our results show that, due to the presence of the boundary, the polarizations of the atom in the parallel direction and in the normal direction are weighted differently in terms of their contributions to the spontaneous emission rate, which is an oscillating function of the atom distance from the boundary. The possible experimental implications of our result are briefly discussed.

First-principles calculation of transport property in nano-devices under an external magnetic field

The mesoscopic quantum interference phenomenon （QIP） can be observed and behaves as the oscillation of conductance in nano-devices when the external magnetic field changes. Excluding the factor of impurities or defects, specific QIP is determined by the sample geometry. We have improved a first-principles method based on the matrix Green＇s function and the density functional theory to simulate the transport behaviour of such systems under a magnetic field. We have studied two kinds of QIP： universal conductance fluctuation （UCF） and Aharonov Bohm effect （A-B effect）. We find that the amplitude of UCF is much smaller than the previous theoretical prediction. We have discussed the origin of difference and concluded that due to the failure of ergodic hypothesis, the ensemble statistics is not applicable, and the conductance fluctuation is determined by the flux-dependent density of states （DOSs）. We have also studied the relation between the UCF and the structure of sample. For a specific structure, an atomic circle, the A-B effect is observed and the origin of the oscillation is also discussed.

Temperature Fluctuations in a Rectangular Nanochannel

We consider an incompressible fluid in a rectangular nanochannel. We solve numerically the three dimensional Fourier heat equation to get the steady solution for the temperature. Then we set and solve the Langevin equation for the temperature. We have developed equations in order to determine relaxation time of the temperature fluctuations, τT = 4.62 × 10-10s. We have performed a spectral analysis of the thermal fluctuations, with the result that temporal correlations are in the one-digit ps range, and the thermal noise excites the thermal modes in the two-digit GHz range. Also we observe long-range spatial correlation up to more than half the size of the cell, 600 nm;the wave number, q, is in the 106 m-1 range. We have also determined two thermal relaxation lengths in the z direction: l1 = 1.18 nm and l2 = 9.86 nm.

Improved Evaluation Method for the SRAM Cell Write Margin by Word Line Voltage Acceleration

An accelerated evaluation method for the SRAM cell write margin is proposed using the conventional Write Noise Margin (WNM) definition based on the “butterfly curve”. The WNM is measured under a lower word line voltage than the power supply voltage VDD. A lower word line voltage is chosen in order to make the access transistor operate in the saturation mode over a wide range of threshold voltage variation. The final WNM at the VDD word line voltage, the Accelerated Write Noise Margin (AWNM), is obtained by shifting the measured WNM at the lower word line voltage. The WNM shift amount is determined from the measured WNM dependence on the word line voltage. As a result, the cumulative frequency of the AWNM displays a normal distribution. Together with the maximum likelihood method, a normal distribution of the AWNM drastically improves development efficiency because the write failure probability can be estimated from a small number of samples. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified using the Monte Carlo simulation.

基于304dB的北欧海相黏土参数空间非均匀变异性研究

由于应力和沉积作用的历史差异,不同场地的岩土类型与性质会有所不同;即使同一场地,在不同位置处的岩土类型及性质亦存在差异。目前普遍采用的均匀随机场模型很难准确表征上述复杂空间变异性,且缺乏原位测试数据的验证。为此,基于国际土力学与岩土工程学会风险评估和管理委员会TC-304所开发和维护的岩土实测参数数据库304dB,对北欧三国挪威、芬兰、瑞典海相黏土参数的空间变异性展开了深入研究。分析比较了北欧三国海相黏土的统计特征参数沿深度变化的异同以及各参数相互影响的物理机制,明确了各参数的空间变异性规律。通过趋势性、涨落性与相关性分析,揭示了北欧三国海相黏土参数均值、标准差以及涨落尺度沿深度均非常数,均值沿深度线性增长,标准差沿深度的变化趋势近似为二次函数,相关函数与间距及位置有关,但随间距增长不会一致收敛。基于综合样本的分层相关性分析,建立了海相黏土参数分层非均匀随机场,该随机场均值为沿深度的线性函数,标准差为在空间变化的随机场,其趋势函数为沿深度的二次函数,不同分层位置处黏土参数可具有不同的均值和标准差初值,各层内参数具有不同涨落尺度。与均匀随机场以及仅考虑均值沿深度线性增长的非均匀场模型相比,所建立的分层非均匀随机场模型可以全面描述海相黏土参数均值、标准差及其相关性沿深度的复杂空间变异性及其非连续变化的分层特性。

紊流润滑滑动轴承壁面压力脉动效应研究

壁面压力脉动是紊流润滑滑动轴承随机振动的主要激励源之一,建立紊流激励特性和轴承结构动力学响应之间的关联,对高转速、低黏度润滑滑动轴承的状态监测和故障诊断具有重要意义。为研究紊流润滑滑动轴承的壁面压力脉动效应,考虑流体油膜中存在逆压力梯度的影响,选用Rozenberg模型和广义Corcos模型表征壁面压力脉动的自功率谱和互功率谱,采用波数域模态叠加法求解滑动轴承紊流壁面压力脉动模型,分析滑动轴承在不同工况参数下壁面压力脉动的激励特性以及结构的响应特性。结果表明:低波数区域紊流脉动压力是轴承结构高频随机振动的主要因素;随着润滑油黏度的降低,高频范围内的轴承模态响应幅值增大,共振峰值附近产生较宽的频带和较高的振幅;随着轴颈转速和径向载荷的升高,紊流压力梯度增大,高频范围内的轴承模态响应幅值也随之增大。

强震临震微波动现象跟踪实践

为验证和检验强震临震微波动现象及其主要特征,利用甘肃、青海、四川、云南、西藏等区域台网200余个宽频带数字地震台站的实时波形资料和实时跟踪监控技术系统,对2019—2022年间青藏高原发生的44次5级以上地震进行全程实时跟踪及动态监控,进一步检验临震微波动现象的重现性和客观性,验证了临震微波动现象的频谱、时间、空间等特征。

基于自适应特性的直流微电网双因子下垂控制策略研究

分布式电源DG(distributed generator)出口线路参数不一致及其出力随机扰动引起了直流微电网负荷功率分配精度下降与网侧电压波动。针对上述问题,计及DG运行暂稳态工况,提出1种基于自适应特性的双因子下垂控制策略。首先,稳态运行时考虑线路阻抗的影响并引入电压调节系数,建立双因子下垂系数稳态分量,在阻抗值未知的情况下即可实现负荷功率的精确分配,同时抬升网侧电压,减小与额定电压的差值;其次,暂态过程中考虑DG出力随机扰动的影响并引入分布一致性迭代算法,建立双因子下垂系数自由分量,可在维持DG均衡出力的情况下快速抑制功率扰动与网侧电压波动,提高系统的稳定性;最后,在PSCAD中搭建直流微电网模型,仿真结果证明了所提策略的有效性。

基于混合t Location-Scale分布模型的光伏功率随机性分量波动性分析

光伏波动性是影响光伏功率稳定并网的关键问题之一。为了更准确地对光伏功率随机性分量进行定量描述,文章首先利用周期图法提取功率的周期性分量,然后提出了混合t Location-Scale分布模型,并对光伏功率随机性分量进行拟合。验证了文章所提模型在拟合光伏功率随机性分量波动性上的优越性,讨论该模型在不同采样时间间隔、不同地区的有效性和适用性。并以某地区光伏电站群实测数据为例,验证了混合t Location-Scale分布模型对随机性分量波动性拟合效果的优势。

基于随机预测理论的双馈风电机组参与电网调频控制策略

随着电力系统中的风电渗透率不断提高,系统中风电功率的随机波动给电网频率稳定性带来巨大挑战。针对上述问题,该文提出基于机会约束随机模型预测控制的附加功率调频控制策略。首先,综合考虑系统中风速及负荷的实时随机波动问题,建立风电并网系统频率响应模型;其次,以系统频率变化及风电输出功率波动最小为控制目标建立期望目标函数,并将机会约束纳入随机最优化模型中;最后,根据随机扰动的分布信息或坎泰利不等式,结合状态反馈控制律求解随机最优化模型,得到当前时刻的最优控制律。利用MATLAB/Simulink搭建风电并网系统进行仿真验证,结果表明,所提策略能够有效抑制风电功率波动及系统频率变化,提高了电网的频率稳定性。

肌肉能量技术对非特异性腰痛患者动态姿势控制和腰神经肌肉功能效果的随机对照试验

目的 探讨肌肉能量技术(MET)对非特异性腰痛患者动态姿势控制能力以及腰部神经肌肉功能的影响。方法 2022年3月至6月,于山东体育学院招募非特异性腰痛在校大学生30例,随机分为对照组(n=15)和干预组(n=15)。对照组进行健康宣教,干预组采用MET进行干预,共4周。干预前后,采用疼痛视觉模拟量表(VAS)、腰部功能障碍指数(ODI)、Y平衡测试和躯干屈曲-放松测试评定腰部神经肌肉功能的变化。结果 干预后,两组VAS评分(|t|> 2.449,P <0.05)均下降,干预组VAS评分显著小于对照组(t=-5.068,P <0.001);干预组ODI评分下降(t=4.785,P <0.001),干预组ODI评分明显小于对照组(t=-2.895,P=0.007);干预组Y平衡测试成绩明显提高(t=-3.662,P=0.003);干预组多裂肌屈曲放松比增加(t=-2.460,P=0.029)。结论 MET能有效改善非特异腰痛患者的疼痛、腰部功能障碍、动态姿势控制和腰部多裂肌屈曲功能。