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基于改进Kinky Inference的输出调节自适应无拖曳控制
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作者 孙笑云 沈强 吴树范 《北京航空航天大学学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第5期1604-1613,共10页
在空间引力波探测任务中,航天器内部检验质量因存在载荷硬件噪声、环境噪声及微推力器耦合噪声等复杂干扰,影响其无拖曳控制精度,难以实现超净、超稳控制需求。提出一种基于惰性适配Lipschitz常数Kinky Inference (LACKI)的航天器自适... 在空间引力波探测任务中,航天器内部检验质量因存在载荷硬件噪声、环境噪声及微推力器耦合噪声等复杂干扰,影响其无拖曳控制精度,难以实现超净、超稳控制需求。提出一种基于惰性适配Lipschitz常数Kinky Inference (LACKI)的航天器自适应无拖曳控制方法,运用监督学习规则实现先验知识不足、样本数据存在损坏时外界干扰的逼近和抑制,及基于输出调节的模型参考自适应控制(MRAC)方法实现检验质量精确的无拖曳控制。数值仿真验证了无拖曳控制中敏感轴平动和转动自由度的状态响应性能及LACKI规则针对外界干扰的估计效果,通过与常规线性控制方法的对比,验证了所提方法对于提高无拖曳控制精度的有效性。 展开更多
关键词 监督学习 LIPSCHITZ估计 模型参考自适应控制 无拖曳控制 输出调节 Kinky inference
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A Bayesian multi-model inference methodology for imprecise momentindependent global sensitivity analysis of rock structures
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作者 Akshay Kumar Gaurav Tiwari 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第3期840-859,共20页
Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.e.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating du... Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.e.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating due to the small size of datasets while mapping the relative importance of properties to the model response.This paper proposes an augmented Bayesian multi-model inference(BMMI)coupled with GSA methodology(BMMI-GSA)to address this issue by estimating the imprecision in the momentindependent sensitivity indices of rock structures arising from the small size of input data.The methodology employs BMMI to quantify the epistemic uncertainties associated with model type and parameters of input properties.The estimated uncertainties are propagated in estimating imprecision in moment-independent Borgonovo’s indices by employing a reweighting approach on candidate probabilistic models.The proposed methodology is showcased for a rock slope prone to stress-controlled failure in the Himalayan region of India.The proposed methodology was superior to the conventional GSA(neglects all epistemic uncertainties)and Bayesian coupled GSA(B-GSA)(neglects model uncertainty)due to its capability to incorporate the uncertainties in both model type and parameters of properties.Imprecise Borgonovo’s indices estimated via proposed methodology provide the confidence intervals of the sensitivity indices instead of their fixed-point estimates,which makes the user more informed in the data collection efforts.Analyses performed with the varying sample sizes suggested that the uncertainties in sensitivity indices reduce significantly with the increasing sample sizes.The accurate importance ranking of properties was only possible via samples of large sizes.Further,the impact of the prior knowledge in terms of prior ranges and distributions was significant;hence,any related assumption should be made carefully. 展开更多
关键词 Bayesian inference Multi-model inference Statistical uncertainty Global sensitivity analysis(GSA) Borgonovo’s indices Limited data
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Plasma current tomography for HL-2A based on Bayesian inference
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作者 刘自结 王天博 +5 位作者 吴木泉 罗正平 王硕 孙腾飞 肖炳甲 李建刚 《Plasma Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第5期165-173,共9页
An accurate plasma current profile has irreplaceable value for the steady-state operation of the plasma.In this study,plasma current tomography based on Bayesian inference is applied to an HL-2A device and used to rec... An accurate plasma current profile has irreplaceable value for the steady-state operation of the plasma.In this study,plasma current tomography based on Bayesian inference is applied to an HL-2A device and used to reconstruct the plasma current profile.Two different Bayesian probability priors are tried,namely the Conditional Auto Regressive(CAR)prior and the Advanced Squared Exponential(ASE)kernel prior.Compared to the CAR prior,the ASE kernel prior adopts nonstationary hyperparameters and introduces the current profile of the reference discharge into the hyperparameters,which can make the shape of the current profile more flexible in space.The results indicate that the ASE prior couples more information,reduces the probability of unreasonable solutions,and achieves higher reconstruction accuracy. 展开更多
关键词 plasma current tomography Bayesian inference machine learning Gaussian distribution
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Variational Neural Inference Enhanced Text Semantic Communication System
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作者 Zhang Xi Zhang Yiqian +1 位作者 Li Congduan Ma Xiao 《China Communications》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第7期50-64,共15页
Recently,deep learning-based semantic communication has garnered widespread attention,with numerous systems designed for transmitting diverse data sources,including text,image,and speech,etc.While efforts have been di... Recently,deep learning-based semantic communication has garnered widespread attention,with numerous systems designed for transmitting diverse data sources,including text,image,and speech,etc.While efforts have been directed toward improving system performance,many studies have concentrated on enhancing the structure of the encoder and decoder.However,this often overlooks the resulting increase in model complexity,imposing additional storage and computational burdens on smart devices.Furthermore,existing work tends to prioritize explicit semantics,neglecting the potential of implicit semantics.This paper aims to easily and effectively enhance the receiver's decoding capability without modifying the encoder and decoder structures.We propose a novel semantic communication system with variational neural inference for text transmission.Specifically,we introduce a simple but effective variational neural inferer at the receiver to infer the latent semantic information within the received text.This information is then utilized to assist in the decoding process.The simulation results show a significant enhancement in system performance and improved robustness. 展开更多
关键词 deep learning semantic communication variational neural inference
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Performance of physical-informed neural network (PINN) for the key parameter inference in Langmuir turbulence parameterization scheme
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作者 Fangrui Xiu Zengan Deng 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第5期121-132,共12页
The Stokes production coefficient(E_(6))constitutes a critical parameter within the Mellor-Yamada type(MY-type)Langmuir turbulence(LT)parameterization schemes,significantly affecting the simulation of turbulent kineti... The Stokes production coefficient(E_(6))constitutes a critical parameter within the Mellor-Yamada type(MY-type)Langmuir turbulence(LT)parameterization schemes,significantly affecting the simulation of turbulent kinetic energy,turbulent length scale,and vertical diffusivity coefficient for turbulent kinetic energy in the upper ocean.However,the accurate determination of its value remains a pressing scientific challenge.This study adopted an innovative approach by leveraging deep learning technology to address this challenge of inferring the E_(6).Through the integration of the information of the turbulent length scale equation into a physical-informed neural network(PINN),we achieved an accurate and physically meaningful inference of E_(6).Multiple cases were examined to assess the feasibility of PINN in this task,revealing that under optimal settings,the average mean squared error of the E_(6) inference was only 0.01,attesting to the effectiveness of PINN.The optimal hyperparameter combination was identified using the Tanh activation function,along with a spatiotemporal sampling interval of 1 s and 0.1 m.This resulted in a substantial reduction in the average bias of the E_(6) inference,ranging from O(10^(1))to O(10^(2))times compared with other combinations.This study underscores the potential application of PINN in intricate marine environments,offering a novel and efficient method for optimizing MY-type LT parameterization schemes. 展开更多
关键词 Langmuir turbulence physical-informed neural network parameter inference
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Local saliency consistency-based label inference for weakly supervised salient object detection using scribble annotations
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作者 Shuo Zhao Peng Cui +1 位作者 Jing Shen Haibo Liu 《CAAI Transactions on Intelligence Technology》 SCIE EI 2024年第1期239-249,共11页
Recently,weak supervision has received growing attention in the field of salient object detection due to the convenience of labelling.However,there is a large performance gap between weakly supervised and fully superv... Recently,weak supervision has received growing attention in the field of salient object detection due to the convenience of labelling.However,there is a large performance gap between weakly supervised and fully supervised salient object detectors because the scribble annotation can only provide very limited foreground/background information.Therefore,an intuitive idea is to infer annotations that cover more complete object and background regions for training.To this end,a label inference strategy is proposed based on the assumption that pixels with similar colours and close positions should have consistent labels.Specifically,k-means clustering algorithm was first performed on both colours and coordinates of original annotations,and then assigned the same labels to points having similar colours with colour cluster centres and near coordinate cluster centres.Next,the same annotations for pixels with similar colours within each kernel neighbourhood was set further.Extensive experiments on six benchmarks demonstrate that our method can significantly improve the performance and achieve the state-of-the-art results. 展开更多
关键词 label inference salient object detection weak supervision
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Distributed process monitoring based on Kantorovich distancemultiblock variational autoencoder and Bayesian inference
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作者 Zongyu Yao Qingchao Jiang Xingsheng Gu 《Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第9期311-323,共13页
Modern industrial processes are typically characterized by large-scale and intricate internal relationships.Therefore,the distributed modeling process monitoring method is effective.A novel distributed monitoring sche... Modern industrial processes are typically characterized by large-scale and intricate internal relationships.Therefore,the distributed modeling process monitoring method is effective.A novel distributed monitoring scheme utilizing the Kantorovich distance-multiblock variational autoencoder(KD-MBVAE)is introduced.Firstly,given the high consistency of relevant variables within each sub-block during the change process,the variables exhibiting analogous statistical features are grouped into identical segments according to the optimal quality transfer theory.Subsequently,the variational autoencoder(VAE)model was separately established,and corresponding T^(2)statistics were calculated.To improve fault sensitivity further,a novel statistic,derived from Kantorovich distance,is introduced by analyzing model residuals from the perspective of probability distribution.The thresholds of both statistics were determined by kernel density estimation.Finally,monitoring results for both types of statistics within all blocks are amalgamated using Bayesian inference.Additionally,a novel approach for fault diagnosis is introduced.The feasibility and efficiency of the introduced scheme are verified through two cases. 展开更多
关键词 Chemical processes SAFETY Kantorovich distance Neural networks Process monitoring Bayesian inference
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Multi-modal knowledge graph inference via media convergence and logic rule
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作者 Feng Lin Dongmei Li +5 位作者 Wenbin Zhang Dongsheng Shi Yuanzhou Jiao Qianzhong Chen Yiying Lin Wentao Zhu 《CAAI Transactions on Intelligence Technology》 SCIE EI 2024年第1期211-221,共11页
Media convergence works by processing information from different modalities and applying them to different domains.It is difficult for the conventional knowledge graph to utilise multi-media features because the intro... Media convergence works by processing information from different modalities and applying them to different domains.It is difficult for the conventional knowledge graph to utilise multi-media features because the introduction of a large amount of information from other modalities reduces the effectiveness of representation learning and makes knowledge graph inference less effective.To address the issue,an inference method based on Media Convergence and Rule-guided Joint Inference model(MCRJI)has been pro-posed.The authors not only converge multi-media features of entities but also introduce logic rules to improve the accuracy and interpretability of link prediction.First,a multi-headed self-attention approach is used to obtain the attention of different media features of entities during semantic synthesis.Second,logic rules of different lengths are mined from knowledge graph to learn new entity representations.Finally,knowledge graph inference is performed based on representing entities that converge multi-media features.Numerous experimental results show that MCRJI outperforms other advanced baselines in using multi-media features and knowledge graph inference,demonstrating that MCRJI provides an excellent approach for knowledge graph inference with converged multi-media features. 展开更多
关键词 logic rule media convergence multi-modal knowledge graph inference representation learning
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A dynamic algorithm for trust inference based on double DQN in the internet of things
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作者 Xiaodong Zhuang Xiangrong Tong 《Digital Communications and Networks》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第4期1024-1034,共11页
The development of the Internet of Things(IoT)has brought great convenience to people.However,some information security problems such as privacy leakage are caused by communicating with risky users.It is a challenge t... The development of the Internet of Things(IoT)has brought great convenience to people.However,some information security problems such as privacy leakage are caused by communicating with risky users.It is a challenge to choose reliable users with which to interact in the IoT.Therefore,trust plays a crucial role in the IoT because trust may avoid some risks.Agents usually choose reliable users with high trust to maximize their own interests based on reinforcement learning.However,trust propagation is time-consuming,and trust changes with the interaction process in social networks.To track the dynamic changes in trust values,a dynamic trust inference algorithm named Dynamic Double DQN Trust(Dy-DDQNTrust)is proposed to predict the indirect trust values of two users without direct contact with each other.The proposed algorithm simulates the interactions among users by double DQN.Firstly,CurrentNet and TargetNet networks are used to select users for interaction.The users with high trust are chosen to interact in future iterations.Secondly,the trust value is updated dynamically until a reliable trust path is found according to the result of the interaction.Finally,the trust value between indirect users is inferred by aggregating the opinions from multiple users through a Modified Collaborative Filtering Averagebased Similarity(SMCFAvg)aggregation strategy.Experiments are carried out on the FilmTrust and the Epinions datasets.Compared with TidalTrust,MoleTrust,DDQNTrust,DyTrust and Dynamic Weighted Heuristic trust path Search algorithm(DWHS),our dynamic trust inference algorithm has higher prediction accuracy and better scalability. 展开更多
关键词 Internet of things Information security Reinforcement learning Trust propagation Trust inference
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Parallel Inference for Real-Time Machine Learning Applications
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作者 Sultan Al Bayyat Ammar Alomran +3 位作者 Mohsen Alshatti Ahmed Almousa Rayyan Almousa Yasir Alguwaifli 《Journal of Computer and Communications》 2024年第1期139-146,共8页
Hyperparameter tuning is a key step in developing high-performing machine learning models, but searching large hyperparameter spaces requires extensive computation using standard sequential methods. This work analyzes... Hyperparameter tuning is a key step in developing high-performing machine learning models, but searching large hyperparameter spaces requires extensive computation using standard sequential methods. This work analyzes the performance gains from parallel versus sequential hyperparameter optimization. Using scikit-learn’s Randomized SearchCV, this project tuned a Random Forest classifier for fake news detection via randomized grid search. Setting n_jobs to -1 enabled full parallelization across CPU cores. Results show the parallel implementation achieved over 5× faster CPU times and 3× faster total run times compared to sequential tuning. However, test accuracy slightly dropped from 99.26% sequentially to 99.15% with parallelism, indicating a trade-off between evaluation efficiency and model performance. Still, the significant computational gains allow more extensive hyperparameter exploration within reasonable timeframes, outweighing the small accuracy decrease. Further analysis could better quantify this trade-off across different models, tuning techniques, tasks, and hardware. 展开更多
关键词 Machine Learning Models Computational Efficiency Parallel Computing Systems Random Forest inference Hyperparameter Tuning Python Frameworks (TensorFlow PyTorch Scikit-Learn) High-Performance Computing
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A Slice Analysis-Based Bayesian Inference Dynamic Power Model for CMOS Combinational Circuits
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作者 陈杰 佟冬 +2 位作者 李险峰 谢劲松 程旭 《Journal of Semiconductors》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2008年第3期502-509,共8页
To improve the accuracy and speed in cycle-accurate power estimation, this paper uses multiple dimensional coefficients to build a Bayesian inference dynamic power model. By analyzing the power distribution and intern... To improve the accuracy and speed in cycle-accurate power estimation, this paper uses multiple dimensional coefficients to build a Bayesian inference dynamic power model. By analyzing the power distribution and internal node state, we find the deficiency of only using port information. Then, we define the gate level number computing method and the concept of slice, and propose using slice analysis to distill switching density as coefficients in a special circuit stage and participate in Bayesian inference with port information. Experiments show that this method can reduce the power-per-cycle estimation error by 21.9% and the root mean square error by 25.0% compared with the original model, and maintain a 700 + speedup compared with the existing gate-level power analysis technique. 展开更多
关键词 slice analysis Bayesian inference power model CMOS combinational circuit
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APPLICATION OF FUZZY INFERENCE IN IDENTIFICATION OF HELICOPTER MODEL
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作者 宋彦国 张呈林 徐锦法 《Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics》 EI 2001年第2期124-129,共6页
Helicopter mathematical model mainly depends on design helicopter control system, flight simulator, and real time control simulation system. But it is difficult to establish a helicopter flight dynamics mathematical ... Helicopter mathematical model mainly depends on design helicopter control system, flight simulator, and real time control simulation system. But it is difficult to establish a helicopter flight dynamics mathematical model that has features such as rapidness, reliability and precision, because there is no unique and precise expression to some sophisticated phenomenon of helicopter. In this paper a fuzzy helicopter flight model is constructed based on the flight experimental data. The fuzzy model, which is identified by fuzzy inference, has characteristics of computed rapidness and high precision. In order to guarantee the precision of the identified fuzzy model, a new method is adopted to handle the conflict fuzzy rules. Additionally, using fuzzy clustering technology can effectively reduce the number of rules of fuzzy model, namely, the order of the fuzzy model. The simulation results indicate that the method of this paper is effective and feasible. 展开更多
关键词 helicopter mathematical model fuzzy inference fuzzy clustering flight control
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Construction and realization of the knowledge base and inference engine of an IDSS model for air-conditioning cooling/heating sources selection
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作者 刘颖 王如竹 +1 位作者 李云飞 张小松 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2003年第2期136-141,共6页
The knowledge representation mode and inference control strategy were analyzed according to the specialties of air-conditioning cooling/heating sources selection. The constructing idea and working procedure for knowle... The knowledge representation mode and inference control strategy were analyzed according to the specialties of air-conditioning cooling/heating sources selection. The constructing idea and working procedure for knowledge base and inference engine were proposed while the realization technique of the C language was discussed. An intelligent decision support system (IDSS) model based on such knowledge representation and inference mechanism was developed by domain engineers. The model was verified to have a small kernel and powerful capability in list processing and data driving, which was successfully used in the design of a cooling/heating sources system for a large-sized office building. 展开更多
关键词 AIR-CONDITIONING cooling/heating sources intelligent decision support system knowledge base inference engine
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Modulation classification of MPSK signals based on nonparametric Bayesian inference
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作者 陈亮 程汉文 吴乐南 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2009年第2期171-174,共4页
A nonparametric Bayesian method is presented to classify the MPSK (M-ary phase shift keying) signals. The MPSK signals with unknown signal noise ratios (SNRs) are modeled as a Gaussian mixture model with unknown m... A nonparametric Bayesian method is presented to classify the MPSK (M-ary phase shift keying) signals. The MPSK signals with unknown signal noise ratios (SNRs) are modeled as a Gaussian mixture model with unknown means and covariances in the constellation plane, and a clustering method is proposed to estimate the probability density of the MPSK signals. The method is based on the nonparametric Bayesian inference, which introduces the Dirichlet process as the prior probability of the mixture coefficient, and applies a normal inverse Wishart (NIW) distribution as the prior probability of the unknown mean and covariance. Then, according to the received signals, the parameters are adjusted by the Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) random sampling algorithm. By iterations, the density estimation of the MPSK signals can be estimated. Simulation results show that the correct recognition ratio of 2/4/8PSK is greater than 95% under the condition that SNR 〉5 dB and 1 600 symbols are used in this method. 展开更多
关键词 modulation classification M-ary phase shift keying Dirichlet process nonparametric Bayesian inference Monte Carlo Markov chain
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APPLICATION STUDY ON ADAPTIVE NEURAL FUZZY INFERENCE MODEL IN COMPLEX SOCIAL-TECHNICAL SYSTEM
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作者 冯绍红 李东 《Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics》 EI 2011年第4期393-399,共7页
The adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is used to make a ease study considering features of complex social-technical system with the target of increasing organizational efficiency of public scientific re... The adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is used to make a ease study considering features of complex social-technical system with the target of increasing organizational efficiency of public scientific research institutions. An integrated ANFIS model is built and the effectiveness of the model is verified by means of investigation data and their processing results. The model merges the learning mechanism of neural network and the language inference ability of fuzzy system, and thereby remedies the defects of neural network and fuzzy logic system. Result of this case study shows that the model is suitable for complicated socio-technical systems and has bright application perspective to solve such problems of prediction, evaluation and policy-making in managerial fields. 展开更多
关键词 complex adaptive system adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) complex social-technical system organizational efficiency
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How to Make Inference in Reading
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作者 何少芳 《海外英语》 2013年第3X期31-32,共2页
Students often have difficulties in reading comprehension because of too many new and unfamiliar words,too little background knowledge and different patterns of thinking among different countries.In this thesis,I reco... Students often have difficulties in reading comprehension because of too many new and unfamiliar words,too little background knowledge and different patterns of thinking among different countries.In this thesis,I recommend applying context clues,synonyms or antonyms,examples,definitions or explanations,cause/effect clues and background clues to make inference when we read texts. 展开更多
关键词 READING COMPREHENSION CLUES inference
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A Preliminary Analysis on Inferences in Discourse Comprehension
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作者 冯政 《海外英语》 2011年第6X期355-357,共3页
By analysing the nature of inference and discourse comprehension as well as the role and classification of inference, it is concluded that inference is a productive mode of thinking that decides from something known o... By analysing the nature of inference and discourse comprehension as well as the role and classification of inference, it is concluded that inference is a productive mode of thinking that decides from something known or assumed, and the inference in discourse works out the underlying propositions, necessary or elaborative, and the unsaid speaker's meaning. To derive a good inference, one has to make use of world knowledge and share some experiences with the speaker. 展开更多
关键词 ANALYSIS inference DISCOURSE COMPREHENSION
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Inference Use by Chinese College Learners in L2 Text Comprehension
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作者 张天乾 《海外英语》 2014年第4X期8-11,共4页
Schema theory is an influential approach to text comprehension, which can account for inferring process in L2 text reading. According to the schema theory, comprehending a text is an interactive process between the re... Schema theory is an influential approach to text comprehension, which can account for inferring process in L2 text reading. According to the schema theory, comprehending a text is an interactive process between the reader's prior knowledge(top-down processing) and the text(bottom-up processing). Both top-down and bottom-up processing are necessary for the inferring in reading comprehension. This paper explores how good and poor Chinese learners adopts top-down processing and bottom-up processing to make inferences in L2 reading, and finds some differences and similarities in using textual materials and background knowledge to make inferences in L2 reading by good and poor Chinese EFL learners respectively. 展开更多
关键词 inferring strategies SCHEMA theory TOP-DOWN proces
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Autonomous air combat maneuver decision using Bayesian inference and moving horizon optimization 被引量:60
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作者 HUANG Changqiang DONG Kangsheng +2 位作者 HUANG Hanqiao TANG Shangqin ZHANG Zhuoran 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2018年第1期86-97,共12页
To reach a higher level of autonomy for unmanned combat aerial vehicle(UCAV) in air combat games, this paper builds an autonomous maneuver decision system. In this system,the air combat game is regarded as a Markov pr... To reach a higher level of autonomy for unmanned combat aerial vehicle(UCAV) in air combat games, this paper builds an autonomous maneuver decision system. In this system,the air combat game is regarded as a Markov process, so that the air combat situation can be effectively calculated via Bayesian inference theory. According to the situation assessment result,adaptively adjusts the weights of maneuver decision factors, which makes the objective function more reasonable and ensures the superiority situation for UCAV. As the air combat game is characterized by highly dynamic and a significant amount of uncertainty,to enhance the robustness and effectiveness of maneuver decision results, fuzzy logic is used to build the functions of four maneuver decision factors. Accuracy prediction of opponent aircraft is also essential to ensure making a good decision; therefore, a prediction model of opponent aircraft is designed based on the elementary maneuver method. Finally, the moving horizon optimization strategy is used to effectively model the whole air combat maneuver decision process. Various simulations are performed on typical scenario test and close-in dogfight, the results sufficiently demonstrate the superiority of the designed maneuver decision method. 展开更多
关键词 autonomous air combat maneuver decision Bayesian inference moving horizon optimization situation assessment fuzzy logic
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A Scan of Obesogenic Environments and a Spatial Inference of Obesity Prevalence in Chinese Children and Adolescents: Based on the Chinese Health and Nutrition Survey 2011 Data 被引量:6
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作者 GUO Chun Lei ZHANG Bing +6 位作者 WANG Hui Jun FENG Guo Shuang LI Jun Ming SU Chang ZHANG Ji Guo WANG Zhi Hong DU Wen Wen 《Biomedical and Environmental Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第10期729-739,共11页
Objective To identify the characteristics of Chinese obesogenic environments at a provincial level, infer a spatial distribution map of obesity prevalence in 31 provinces, and provide a foundation for development of p... Objective To identify the characteristics of Chinese obesogenic environments at a provincial level, infer a spatial distribution map of obesity prevalence in 31 provinces, and provide a foundation for development of policy to reduce obesity in children and adolescents. Methods After scanning obesity data on subjects aged 7-17 years from 12 provinces in the China Health and Nutrition Survey 2011 and environmental data on 31 provinces from the China Statistical Yearbook 2011 and other sources, we selected 12 predictors. We used the 12 surveyed provinces as a training sample to fit an analytical model with partial least squares regression and prioritized the 12 predictors using variable importance in projection. We also fitted a predictive model with Bayesian analysis. Results We identified characteristics of obesogenic environments. We fitted the predictive model with a deviance information criterion of 61.96 and with statistically significant(P 〈 0.05) parameter estimates of intercept [95% confidence interval(CI): 329.10, 963.11], log(oil)(CI: 13.11, 20.30), log(GDP)(CI: 3.05, 6.93), log(media)(CI:-234.95,-89.61), and log(washing-machine)(CI: 0.92, 5.07). The total inferred average obesity prevalence among those aged 7-17 was 9.69% in 31 Chinese provinces in 2011. We also found obvious clustering in occurrences of obesity in northern and eastern provinces in the predicted map. Conclusion Given complexity of obesity in children and adolescents, concerted efforts are needed to reduce consumption of edible oils, increase consumption of vegetables, and strengthen nutrition, health, and physical activity education in Chinese schools. The northern and eastern regions are the key areas requiring intervention. 展开更多
关键词 Chinese children OBESITY Environment Spatial inference PREVALENCE
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