An objective technique of tropical cyclone （TC） moving direction prediction over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean during 2001 - 2002 is studied using GMS-50uting-Longwave Radiation （OLR）data. Three formulae used to ...An objective technique of tropical cyclone （TC） moving direction prediction over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean during 2001 - 2002 is studied using GMS-50uting-Longwave Radiation （OLR）data. Three formulae used to predict TC moving direction in 6, 12 and 24 h, respectively, have been obtained based on a multiple linear regression framework and some regression factors including several kinds of OLR characteristic values and the minimum sea level pressure of tropical cyclone center. The multiple correlation coefficients of the statistical analysis using the information of TCs in the Yearbook on Tropical Cyclones to validate the satellite-based prediction are 0.954, 0.945 and 0.914 respectively. The results are satisfying through checking one of the TCs in 2001.The techniques could be applied in future operation and would contribute to TC movement prediction, especially to a sudden change in TC moving direction and improving the forecasting and warning capability.展开更多
Outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)at the top of the atmosphere(TOA)is a key parameter for understanding and interpreting the relationship between clouds,radiation,and climate interactions.It has been one of the operatio...Outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)at the top of the atmosphere(TOA)is a key parameter for understanding and interpreting the relationship between clouds,radiation,and climate interactions.It has been one of the operational products of the Fengyun(FY)meteorological satellites.OLR accuracy has gradually improved with advancements in satellite payload performance and the OLR retrieval algorithm.Supported by the National Key R&D Program Retrospective Calibration of Historical Chinese Earth Observation Satellite data(Richceos)project,a long-term OLR climate data record(CDR)was reprocessed based on the recalibrated Level 1 data of FY series satellites using the latest OLR retrieval algorithm.In this study,Fengyun-3B(FY-3B)’s reprocessed global OLR data from 2010 to 2018 were evaluated by using the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System(CERES)global daily OLR data.The results showed that there was a high consistency between the FY-3B instantaneous OLR and CERES Single Scanner Footprint(SSF)OLR.Globally,between the two CDR datasets,the correlation coefficient reached 0.98,and the rootmean-square error(RMSE)was approximately 8-9 W m^(−2).The bias mainly came from the edge regions of the satellite orbit,which may be related to the satellite zenith angle and cloud cover distribution.It was shown that the longterm FY-3B OLR had temporal stability compared to CERES OLR long-term data.In terms of spatial distribution,the mean deviations showed zonal and seasonal characteristics,although seasonal fluctuations were observed in the differences between the two datasets.Effects of FY-3B OLR application to the South China Sea monsoon region and ENSO were demonstrated and analyzed,and the results showed that the seasonal deviation of FY-3B’s OLR comes mainly from the retrieval algorithm.However,it has little effect on the analysis of climate events.展开更多
文摘FY-3B卫星VIRR仪器的向外长波辐射(outgoing long-wave radiation,OLR)产品处理采用与NOAA/AVHRR相同的算法模型,即用窗区通道亮温-通量等效亮度温度的回归关系式计算OLR,但两星的OLR业务产品与目前国际质量最好的云和地球辐射能量系统(cloud and earth’s radiant energy system,CERES)仪器观测OLR产品相比,存在约10 W·m^(-2)的系统负偏差。FY-3B的原因在于OLR反演模式建立过程中红外辐射传输计算软件的精度不够。鉴于此,本文采用美国21世纪开发的逐线辐射传输模型计算软件(LBLRTM),模拟计算了全球2521条大气廓线的大气顶辐射率光谱,在此基础上计算了每条廓线的OLR和FY-3B/VIRR窗区通道亮温,应用最小二乘法统计回归模拟数据,重新建立了由FY-3B/VIRR窗区通道亮温计算OLR的回归关系式及系数。模式应用于FY-3BL1级数据,处理2016年1,3,7和10月的FY-3B逐日全球OLR资料,该资料与AQUA-TERRA卫星的CERES仪器OLR观测产品相比,得到日平均OLR:RMSE=9~15 W·m^(-2),R=0.9834,Bias=-0.3W·m^(-2);月平均OLR:RMSE=4~7W·m^(-2),R=0.9915,Bias=-0.3W·m^(-2),表明改进的模式能处理出无系统偏差的、精度基本与CERES观测相当的OLR产品,尽管单通道反演算法有着固有的模式回归误差。
基金"Study on the Application of Satellite Data on the Elements of Military Meteorology andImportant Weather Watch" from the General Equipment Department of the People’s Liberation Army
文摘An objective technique of tropical cyclone （TC） moving direction prediction over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean during 2001 - 2002 is studied using GMS-50uting-Longwave Radiation （OLR）data. Three formulae used to predict TC moving direction in 6, 12 and 24 h, respectively, have been obtained based on a multiple linear regression framework and some regression factors including several kinds of OLR characteristic values and the minimum sea level pressure of tropical cyclone center. The multiple correlation coefficients of the statistical analysis using the information of TCs in the Yearbook on Tropical Cyclones to validate the satellite-based prediction are 0.954, 0.945 and 0.914 respectively. The results are satisfying through checking one of the TCs in 2001.The techniques could be applied in future operation and would contribute to TC movement prediction, especially to a sudden change in TC moving direction and improving the forecasting and warning capability.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFB0504900 and 2018YFB0504905)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801278).
文摘Outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)at the top of the atmosphere(TOA)is a key parameter for understanding and interpreting the relationship between clouds,radiation,and climate interactions.It has been one of the operational products of the Fengyun(FY)meteorological satellites.OLR accuracy has gradually improved with advancements in satellite payload performance and the OLR retrieval algorithm.Supported by the National Key R&D Program Retrospective Calibration of Historical Chinese Earth Observation Satellite data(Richceos)project,a long-term OLR climate data record(CDR)was reprocessed based on the recalibrated Level 1 data of FY series satellites using the latest OLR retrieval algorithm.In this study,Fengyun-3B(FY-3B)’s reprocessed global OLR data from 2010 to 2018 were evaluated by using the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System(CERES)global daily OLR data.The results showed that there was a high consistency between the FY-3B instantaneous OLR and CERES Single Scanner Footprint(SSF)OLR.Globally,between the two CDR datasets,the correlation coefficient reached 0.98,and the rootmean-square error(RMSE)was approximately 8-9 W m^(−2).The bias mainly came from the edge regions of the satellite orbit,which may be related to the satellite zenith angle and cloud cover distribution.It was shown that the longterm FY-3B OLR had temporal stability compared to CERES OLR long-term data.In terms of spatial distribution,the mean deviations showed zonal and seasonal characteristics,although seasonal fluctuations were observed in the differences between the two datasets.Effects of FY-3B OLR application to the South China Sea monsoon region and ENSO were demonstrated and analyzed,and the results showed that the seasonal deviation of FY-3B’s OLR comes mainly from the retrieval algorithm.However,it has little effect on the analysis of climate events.
