Evaluating and Improving Wind Forecasts over South China: The Role of Orographic Parameterization in the GRAPES Model

Unresolved small-scale orographic（SSO） drags are parameterized in a regional model based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for the Tropical Mesoscale Model（GRAPES TMM）. The SSO drags are represented by adding a sink term in the momentum equations. The maximum height of the mountain within the grid box is adopted in the SSO parameterization（SSOP） scheme as compensation for the drag. The effects of the unresolved topography are parameterized as the feedbacks to the momentum tendencies on the first model level in planetary boundary layer（PBL）parameterization. The SSOP scheme has been implemented and coupled with the PBL parameterization scheme within the model physics package. A monthly simulation is designed to examine the performance of the SSOP scheme over the complex terrain areas located in the southwest of Guangdong. The verification results show that the surface wind speed bias has been much alleviated by adopting the SSOP scheme, in addition to reduction of the wind bias in the lower troposphere. The target verification over Xinyi shows that the simulations with the SSOP scheme provide improved wind estimation over the complex regions in the southwest of Guangdong.

NUMERICAL STUDIES OF PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES ON SUPER TYPHOON SANBA(2012)DURING ITS INITIAL STAGE

The formation and development of typhoons are closely related to the disturbed low vortexes at the planetary boundary layer(PBL). The effects of five PBL parameterization schemes(PBL schemes hereinafter) on the trajectory,intensity, and distribution of physical quantities are studied using the mesoscale WRF model on Super Typhoon Sanba(2012) during its initial stage. Results show that the five PBL schemes exhibit significant different effects on the simulated intensity and path. The results simulated by QNSE and ACM2 without the Bogus method are close to the best track data in the numerical experiments. When the Bogus method is adopted, the simulated trajectories improve significantly because the initial field is close to the true data. Among the five PBL schemes, QNSE and ACM2 with the Bogus method present improved simulated path and intensity compared with the three other schemes. This finding indicates that the two schemes deal with the initial PBL process satisfactorily, especially in the formation and development of disturbed low vortexes. The differences in the treatment methods of the five PBL schemes affect the surface layer physical quantities and the middle and upper atmospheres during the middle to late periods of the typhoon.Although QNSE and ACM2 present better simulation results than other schemes, they exhibit a few differences in the internal structure of the typhoon. The results simulated by MYJ are worse, and this method may be unsuitable for studying the formation and development of typhoons.

High-resolution Simulation of an Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event in Shanghai Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Sensitivity to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

In this study,an extreme rainfall event that occurred on 25 May 2018 over Shanghai and its nearby area was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model,with a focus on the effects of planetary boundary layer(PBL)physics using double nesting with large grid ratios(15:1 and 9:1).The sensitivity of the precipitation forecast was examined through three PBL schemes:the Yonsei University Scheme,the Mellor−Yamada−Nakanishi Niino Level 2.5(MYNN)scheme,and the Mellor−Yamada−Janjic scheme.The PBL effects on boundary layer structures,convective thermodynamic and large-scale forcings were investigated to explain the model differences in extreme rainfall distributions and hourly variations.The results indicated that in single coarser grids(15 km and 9 km),the extreme rainfall amount was largely underestimated with all three PBL schemes.In the inner 1-km grid,the underestimated intensity was improved;however,using the MYNN scheme for the 1-km grid domain with explicitly resolved convection and nested within the 9-km grid using the Kain−Fritsch cumulus scheme,significant advantages over the other PBL schemes are revealed in predicting the extreme rainfall distribution and the time of primary peak rainfall.MYNN,with the weakest vertical mixing,produced the shallowest and most humid inversion layer with the lowest lifting condensation level,but stronger wind fields and upward motions from the top of the boundary layer to upper levels.These factors all facilitate the development of deep convection and moisture transport for intense precipitation,and result in its most realistic prediction of the primary rainfall peak.