Assessment of rehabilitation strategies for lakes affected by anthropogenic and climatic changes: A case study of the Urmia Lake, Iran

Over the last three decades,more than half of the world's large lakes and wetlands have experienced significant shrinkage,primarily due to climate change and extensive water consumption for agriculture and other human needs.The desiccation of lakes leads to severe environmental,economic,and social repercussions.Urmia Lake,located in northwestern Iran and representing a vital natural ecosystem,has experienced a volume reduction of over 90.0%.Our research evaluated diverse water management strategies within the Urmia Lake basin and prospects of inter-basin water transfers.This study focused on strategies to safeguard the environmental water rights of the Urmia Lake by utilizing the modeling and simulating(MODSIM)model.The model simulated changes in the lake's water volume under various scenarios.These included diverting water from incoming rivers,cutting agricultural water use by 40.0%,releasing dam water in non-agricultural seasons,treated wastewater utilization,and inter-basin transfers.Analytical hierarchy process(AHP)was utilized to analyze the simulation results.Expert opinions with AHP analysis,acted as a multi-criteria decision-making tool to evaluate the simulation and determine the optimal water supply source priority for the Urmia Lake.Our findings underscore the critical importance of reducing agricultural water consumption as the foremost step in preserving the lake.Following this,inter-basin water transfers are suggested,with a detailed consideration of the inherent challenges and limitations faced by the source watersheds.It is imperative to conduct assessments on the impacts of these transfers on the downstream users and the potential environmental risks,advocating for a diplomatic and cooperative approach with adjacent country.This study also aims to forecast the volumes of water that can be transferred under different climatic conditions—drought,normal,and wet years—to inform strategic water management planning for the Urmia Lake.According to our projection,implementing the strategic scenarios outlined could significantly augment the lake's level and volume,potentially by 3.57×109–9.38×109 m3 over the coming 10 a and 3.57×109–10.70×109 m3 in the subsequent 15 a.

Glacier area change (1993-2019) and its relationship to debris cover, proglacial lakes, and morphological parameters in the Chandra-Bhaga Basin, Western Himalaya, India

Glacier inventories serve as critical baseline data for understanding the impacts of climate change on glaciers.The present study maps the outlines of glaciers in the Chandra-Bhaga Basin(western Himalaya)for the years 1993,2000,2010,and 2019 using Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM),Enhanced Thematic Mapper(ETM),and Operational Land Imager(OLI)datasets.A total of 251 glaciers,each having an area above 0.5 km^(2),were identified,which include 216 clean-ice and 35 debris-covered glaciers.Area changes are estimated for three periods:1993-2000,2000-2010,and 2010-2019.The total glacierized area was 996±62 km^(2) in 1993,which decreased to 973±70 km^(2) in 2019.The mean rate of glacier area loss was higher in the recent decade(2010-2019),at 0.036 km^(2),compared to previous decades(0.029 km^(2) in 2000-2010 and 0.025 km^(2) in 1993-2000).Supraglacial debris cover changes are also mapped over the period of 1993 and 2019.It is found that the supraglacial debris cover increased by 14.12±2.54 km^(2)(15.2%)during 1993-2019.Extensive field surveys on Chhota Shigri,Panchi II,Patsio,Hamtah,Mulkila,and Yoche Lungpa glaciers were carried out to validate the glacier outlines and supraglacial debris cover estimated using satellite datasets.Controls of various morphological parameters on retreat were also analyzed.It is observed that small,clean ice,south oriented glaciers,and glaciers with proglacial lakes are losing area at faster rates than other glaciers in the basin.

Using remote sensing technology to monitor salt lake changes caused by climate change and melting glaciers:insights from Zabuye Salt Lake in Xizang

Zabuye Salt Lake(ZSL)in Xizang is the only saline lake in the world with natural crystalline lithium carbonate.As it is an important lithium production base in China,any changes of this lake are concerning.Global climate change(CC)has affected the hydrological conditions of glaciers,lakes,and ecosystems in the Tibetan Plateau(TP).With the aim of monitoring dynamic hydrological changes in ZSL and Lunggar Glaciers(LG)to identify factors governing lake changes,and to estimate the potential damage to grasslands and salt pans,Landsat remote sensing(RS)and meteorological data were used to do a series of experiments and analysis.Firstly,according to the spectral characteristics(SC),salt lake,glaciers,grasslands,and salt pans around the salt lake were extracted by band calculation(BC).Secondly,basin and water areas of the expanded lake were estimated using a shuttle radar topography mission(SRTM)digital elevation model(DEM).Thirdly,comprehensive analyses of lake and glacier area changes,and regional meteorological factors(annual average temperature,annual precipitation,and evaporation)were performed,and the results show that ZSL expanded at a rate of 5.28 km^(2)/a,it is likely to continue expanding.Expansion was closely related to the large-scale melting of a glacier caused by rising temperatures.Continued lake expansion(LE)will exert different effects on surrounding grasslands and salt pans,7.84 km^(2)of grassland and 2.7 km^(2)of salt pan will be submerged with every meter of water increase in the lake.Similar prediction methods was used to monitor other lakes on the TP.Mami Co,Selin Co,and Chaerhan salt lakes all expanded at different rates,and may potentially cause different levels of potential harm to surrounding grasslands and roads.Our study contributes to salt lake research and demonstrates the superiority of RS technology for monitoring saline lakes.

Glacial lakes under climate change: the imperative for comparative studies of microbial carbon metabolism in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the Arctic

Glacial lakes,intimately linked to glacier termini,are crucial landscape features of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau)and the Arctic.Climate warming has accelerated glacier retreat and the rapid expansion of glacial lakes in both regions.Despite being typically considered harsh environments,these lakes serve as vital reservoirs for microbial biodiversity and carbon metabolism.In the face of climate change,glacial lake ecosystems over the QXP and the Arctic are undergoing unprecedentedtransformations.Thisopinioneditorial highlights the significance of conducting research and establishing long-term monitoring programs focused on microbial carbon metabolism in these glacial lakes.

Environmental Changes Analysis of Hongjiannao Lake During Recent Fifty Years——Based on the Data of Lake Sediments

Particle size, the contents of carbonate and TOC were analyzed on lake sediments from a short core in Hongjiannao Lake to discuss the environmental changes during the past decades. On the basis of the records in lake sediments and comparison with the meteorological data of Yulin region, the environmental changes in Hongjiannao Lake were approximately divided into two stages. In stage A （1957 -1996）, the lake evolution and the environmental change were mainly influenced by natural factors. It contains three sub-stages： A1 （1957-1969）, a period of lake expansion, A2 （1969-1990）, a stable period with high lake levels, and A3 （1990 -1996）, a period of gradual extraction of the lake. In stage B （1996 -2005）, the lake area still keeps diminishing. During this period, organic matter increased rapidly due to the input of nutrient elements in the catchment. The carbonate content, however, decreased. As the precipitation was decreasing and the temperature was increasing, the decrease of carbonate content could not be explained by either temperature or precipitation change.

Analysis to the Driving Force Model and Drives Factor on the Utilized Changes of Cultivated Land in Qinghai Lake Area

Using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to study the driving force of cultivated land in Qinghai Lake Area, and using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed, and the differences during all factors were compared. The study provides some decision basis for sustainable utilization and management of land resources in Qinghai Lake Area.

Study on Changes of Grassland Landscape Pattern in Qinghai Lake Watershed

The changes of grassland landscape pattern in Qinghai Lake watershed from 1977 to 2000 were studied by adopting 3S technologies and landscape pattern analysis.The results showed that the amount of grassland landscape patch reduced,landscape fragmentation and resolution decreased,but average patch area and fractal dimension increased;through analyzing the landscape change of counties in Qinghai Lake watershed,the grassland landscape structure of Tianjun,Gangcha and Haiyan counties showed a similar change trend;but in Gonghe County grassland patch amount,landscape fragmentation and resolution increased,average patch area decreased,that is,the grassland landscape structure in this county showed a different trend.

Dynamic changes in lakes in the Hoh Xil region before and after the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake

Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel and Yanhu Lakes are independent inland lakes in the Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In September2011, Zonag Lake burst after the water level had increased for many years. Floods flowed through Kusai and Hedin Noel Lakes into Yanhu Lake; since then, the four small endorheic catchments merged into one larger catchment. This hydrological process caused the rapid shrinkage of Zonag Lake and continuous expansion of Yanhu Lake. In this study,based on satellite images, meteorological data and field investigations, we examined the dynamic changes in the four lakes and analyzed the influencing factors. The results showed that before 2011, the trends in the four lake areas were similar and displayed several stages. The change in the area of Zonag Lake corresponded well to the change in annual precipitation(AP), but the magnitude of the change was less than that of a non-glacier-fed lake. Although increased precipitation was the dominant factor that caused Zonag Lake to expand, increased glacier melting and permafrost thawing due to climate warming also had significant effects. After the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake, due to the increasing AP and accelerating glacier melting, the increases in water volume of the three lakes were absorbed by Yanhu Lake, and Yanhu Lake expanded considerably. According to the rapid growth rates in water level and lake area, Yanhu Lake is likely to burst in 1-2 years.

Trend of Salt Lake Changes in the Background of Global Warming and Tactics for Adaptation to the Changes

Salt lakes are a mirror of climatic changes and provide holographic records of environmental changes of lakes. According to a study of geological hazards in typical salt lake areas in China and other regions, the authors explain how geological hazards in salt lake areas are caused by natural agents and how humans can seek benefits, avoid hazards and reduce losses on the premise that they have monitored and mastered the trend of salt lake changes in advance and even can store flood and recharge water in lakes and extract saline resources. The climate in western China is probably turning from warm-dry to warm-moist. The authors analyze the change trend of salt lakes sensu lato (with salinity≥0.3 wt% (NaCl)eq) and salt lakes sensu stricto (with salinity ≥3.5 wt% (NaCl)eq) in China in such climatic conditions and distinguish three types of salt lake areas (i.e. lake water rising type, lake water falling type and lake water rising and unstable type) according to the characteristics of lake water rising and shrinking. In order to conform to the climatic and lake changes in China's salt lake areas, the authors propose to add and improve hydrological and meteorological observation stations and integrate observations with remote sensing monitoring in important salt lake areas and set up multidisciplinary and interdepartmental basic projects to monitor and study recent climatic and environmental changes in salt lake areas of western China. Moreover, it is necessary to build additional flood-control and drought-preventing water conservancy facilities in key salt lake areas and work out measures for ecological protection in salt lake areas. Full consideration should be given to the influence of flooding when building saltfields and implementing capital projects.

Glacier extent changes and possible causes in the Hala Lake Basin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Glacier is a common sensitivity indicator of environmental and global climate change.Examining the relationship between glacier area and climate change will help reveal glacier change mechanisms and future trends.Glacier changes are also of great significance to the regulation of regional water resources.This study selected the Hala Lake Basin in the northeastern Qinhai-Tibet Plateau as a study area,and examined the relationships between the temporal and spatial change of glaciers in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and climate change based on remote sensing imagery,climatological data,and topographic data during the past 30 years.Results showed that glacier area in the Hala Lake basin fluctuated and decreased from106.24 km2 in 1986 to 78.84 km2 in 2015,with a decreasing rate of 0.94 km2·yr-1.The number of glacier patches,mean patch area,and largest patch index all decreased from 1986 to 2015,while the splitting index increased from 1986 to 2015,indicating that the landscape fragmentation of glacier in the Hala Lake Basin was increasing significantly during the study period.Glacier area change was mainly concentrated in the slopes>25°with an altitude of 4500-5000 m,and the retreating rate of glacier of sunny slope was obviously higher than that of shady slope.Geometric center of glacier in the basin moved from southwest to northeast towards high altitude.Results of the response of glacier extent to climate change showed that temperature was the dominant factor affecting glacier area dynamic change in the Hala Lake Basin.It is predicted that in future several years,the glacier area will decrease and fragment continually as a result of global warming on the Tibetan Plateau.

Environmental changes during modern period from the record of Gaoyou Lake sediments, Jiangsu

Based on analysis of parameters of cores taken from Gaoyou Lake, including magnetic susceptibility, grain-size characteristics and sedimentary rate, environmental changes during the modern period were examined with the assistance of historical records and Gaoyou Lake water level materials. It is concluded that during the modern period a higher value of magnetic susceptibility and a lower sediment grain size coincided with a wet climate, while a lower value of magnetic susceptibility and a higher grain size were related with a dry climate. The results indicate that the climate in the 123 years period from 1880 to 2003AD can be divided into four stages： two low water level stages （1880-1915AD, 1948-1981AD） and two high water level stages （1915-1948AD, 1981-2003AD）. It appears that the regional climate generally underwent a dry-wet-dry-wet pattern in 30-year cycles. At present, it is at the end of a wet period, so the regional climate is expected to become dry in the near future. This conclusion corresponds with the climate records in the historical literature of the Gaoyou area, and it also matches with the climatic changes in North Jiangsu area.

ISOTOPIC EVIDENCE FOR HOLOCENE CLIMATIC CHANGES IN BOSTEN LAKE,SOUTHERN XINJIANG,CHINA

Based on the δ13C and δ18O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO3 content and sporopollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ18O, δ13C and CaCO3 appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ18O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ13C, pollen and CaCO3 analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P., 10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P.-10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P.-8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P.-5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.-1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism of palaeoclimatic changes.

Mapping of moraine dammed glacial lakes and assessment of their areal changes in the central and eastern Himalayas using satellite data

The relatively rapid recession of glaciers in the Himalayas and formation of moraine dammed glacial lakes(MDGLs) in the recent past have increased the risk of glacier lake outburst floods(GLOF) in the countries of Nepal and Bhutan and in the mountainous territory of Sikkim in India. As a product of climate change and global warming, such a risk has not only raised the level of threats to the habitation and infrastructure of the region, but has also contributed to the worsening of the balance of the unique ecosystem that exists in this domain that sustains several of the highest mountain peaks of the world. This study attempts to present an up to date mapping of the MDGLs in the central and eastern Himalayan regions using remote sensing data, with an objective to analyse their surface area variations with time from 1990 through 2015, disaggregated over six episodes. The study also includes the evaluation for susceptibility of MDGLs to GLOF with the least criteria decision analysis(LCDA). Forty two major MDGLs, each having a lake surface area greater than 0.2 km2, that were identified in the Himalayan ranges of Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim, have been categorized according to their surface area expansion rates in space and time. The lakes have been identified as located within the elevation range of 3800 m and6800 m above mean sea level(a msl). With a total surface area of 37.9 km2, these MDGLs as a whole were observed to have expanded by an astonishing 43.6% in area over the 25 year period of this study. A factor is introduced to numerically sort the lakes in terms of their relative yearly expansion rates, based on their interpretation of their surface area extents from satellite imageries. Verification of predicted GLOF events in the past using this factor with the limited field data as reported in literature indicates that the present analysis may be considered a sufficiently reliable and rapid technique for assessing the potential bursting susceptibility of the MDGLs. The analysis also indicates that, as of now, there are eight MDGLs in the region which appear to be in highly vulnerable states and have high chances in causing potential GLOF events anytime in the recent future.

Lake Area Changes and the main causes in the hinterland of Badain Jaran Desert during 1973–2010,China

Lake area information in the Badain Jaran Desert in 1973, 1990, 2000, and 2010 was obtained by visual interpretation and water index analysis of remote sensing images, based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of lake area changes during 37 years. Results indicated that the nttmber of lakes declined from 94 to 82 and the total surface area was reduced by 3.69 km2 during 1973-2010. The desert lake area reduced by different degrees in different periods, but this occurred most rapidly during 1973-1990. According to the statistics of lake area changes, lake area decreases mainly occurred in the lakes with areas less than 0.2 km2, while the areas of lakes greater than 0.9 km2 only fluctuated. The changes of lake areas were probably due to changes in the quantity of underground water supplies rather than the effects of local climate change or human factors.

Relationship Between Changes of River-lake Networks and Water Levels in Typical Regions of Taihu Lake Basin,China

The typical regions of the Taihu Lake Basin,China,were selected to analyze the variation characteristics of river-lake networks under intensive human activities.The characteristics of the fractal dimension of river networks and lakes for different periods were investigated and the influences of river system evolution on water level changes were further explored through the comparison of their fractal characters.The results are as follows:1) River network development of the study area is becoming more monotonous and more simple;the number of lakes is reducing significantly,and the water surface ratio has dropped significantly since the 1980s.2) The box dimension of the river networks in all the cities of the study area decreased slowly from the 1960s to the 1980s,while the decrease was significant from the 1980s to the 2000s.The variations of lake correlation dimension are similar to those of the river network box dimensions.This is unfavorable for the storage capacity of the river networks and lakes.3) The Hurst exponents of water levels were all between 0.5 and 1.0 from the 1960s to the 1980s,while decreased in the 2000s,indicating the decline in persistence and increase in the complexity of water level series.The paper draws a conclusion that the relationship between the fractal dimension of river-lake networks and the Hurst exponents of the water level series can reveal the impacts of river system changes on flood disasters to some extent:the disappearance of river networks and lakes will increase the possibility of flood occurrence.

The spatial-temporal changes of the land use/cover in the Dongting Lake area during the last decade

The research on the land use/cover change is one of the frontiers and the hot spots in the global change research. Based on the Chinese resource and environment spatial-temporal database, and using the Landsat TM and ETM data of 1990 and 2000 respectively, we analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of land use/cover changes in the Dongting Lake area during the last decade. The result shows that during the last ten years there were three land-use types that had changed remarkably. The cultivated land decreased by 0.57% of the total cultivated land. The built-up land and water area expanded, with an increase of 8.97% and 0.43% respectively. The conversion between land use types mostly happened among these three land-use types, especially frequently between cultivated land and water area. The land-use change speed of land-use type is different. Three cities experienced the greatest degree of land-use change among all the administrative districts, which means that the land use in these cities changed much quickly. The following changed area was the west and south of the Dongting Lake area. The slowest changed area is the north and east area.

Lake evolution and its implication for environmental changes in China during 1950-2000

Lakes in China have undergone considerable environmental changes during the past 50 years, e.g. lake level, water area changes, as did in the past several thousands years. The enhanced human activities, such as land reclamation, application of chemical fertilizer, land use and cover, irrigation and industrialization in the catchment etc., have played an important role on the recent decades＇ changes of these lakes, although constrained to a great extent by the natural impact. Comparative study on variations of lake volume （water level, depth and area） in the eastern and western lake regions of China during 1950-2000 indicated that, lake volume in the eastern region had approximately undergone a two-stage change, i.e. a dramatic decrease from the 1950s to 1970s, and a continuous increase between the 1980s and 1990s; while, in the western region, lake volume had been decreasing nearly all the time. Further studies on some typical lakes concluded that, climatic change was a primary factor for the variations of lake volume during the past 50 years, although human activities showed important effect.

The changes of pigment contents and their environmental implications in the lake sediments of Ny-lesund,Svalbard,the Arctic

According to palaeoclimatic and modern instrumental data,numerous studies have indicated that the Arctic climate has undergone a significant warming during the past 100 years,and this may lead to significant impact on the fragile lake ecosystem.In this study,we collected a lake sediment core from the Nylesund of Svalbard and determined the concentrations of four pigments including chlorophyll derivatives,total carotenoids,oscillaxanthin and myxoxanthophyll in the sediments.Combined with other physical and chemical proxies such as calcium carbonate,total organic carbon,biogenic silicon etc.,we have reconstructed the historical changes of lacustrine primary productivity in Ny-lesund,especially for the past 100 years.The results showed that during the period of Little Ice Age（LIA）,the climate was unfavorable for the growth of the lake algae,and thus the lacustrine productivity declined.This result was supported by the relatively low contents of pigment and biogenic silica in the sediments.In contrast,the contents of total organic carbon（TOC） and sediment pigments increased significantly in the upper 5 cm（-1890AD）,reflecting the rapid growth of the lake algae,thus the great increase of lacustrine primary productivity,corresponding to the warming climate after LIA.However,the biogenic silica in the upper sediments still had a relatively low level,and this might be related to the growth competition with other algae species.Over the past 100 years,the ratio of Osc/Myx in the sediments decreased continuously,indicative of durative increase of myxoxanthophyll in blue-green algal pigments,and this might imply that the human activity had enhanced the nutrition level of the lake in the Arctic region.

Climatic changes have led to significant expansion of endorheic lakes in Xizang (Tibet) since 1995

Robust climate warming has led to significant expansion of lakes in the central Tibetan Plateau. Using remote sensing data, our quantitative analysis indicates that Siling Co, a saline lake in a characteristic endorheic basin in the central region of the Plateau, has expanded more than 600 km2 in area since 1976. Particularly since 1995, the lake has signif- icantly expanded in response to increasing precipitation, decreasing water surface evaporation caused by weaker winds and less solar radiation, and increased glacier meltwater draining to the lake. Glacie^lake interactions are important in governing lake expansion and are also part of a feedback loop that influences the local climate. Worsening climatic conditions （decreased precipitation and increased temperatures） that could have caused the lake to shrink during 1976-1994 were offset by increasing glacier meltwater feeding the lake, which made the lake nearly stable. We demonstrate that this pattern changed during 1995-2009, when glacier meltwater actually decreased but participation runoff increased and evaporation decreased, leading to expansion of the lake. If climatic conditions became suitable for further lake development, which would be indicated by expansion in lake area, glacier meltwater could be saved in a stable reservoir.

Investigating the causes of Lake Urmia shrinkage:climate change or anthropogenic factors?

In the current scenario,Lake Urmia,one of the vastest hyper saline lakes on the Earth,has been affected by serious environmental degradation.Using different satellite images and observational data,this study investigated the changes in the lake for the period 1970–2020 based on the effects of climate change and several human-induced processes on Lake Urmia,such as population growth,excessive dam construction,low irrigation water use efficiency,poor water resources management,increased sediment flow into the lake,and lack of political and legal frameworks.The results indicated that between 1970 and 1997,the process of change in Lake Urmia was slow;however;the shrinkage was faster between 1998 and 2018,with about 30.00%of the lake area disappearing.As per the findings,anthropogenic factors had a much greater impact on Lake Urmia than climate change and prolonged drought;the mismanagement of water consumption in the agricultural sector and surface and underground water withdrawals in the basin have resulted in a sharp decrease in the lake's surface.These challenges have serious implications for water resources management in Lake Urmia Basin.Therefore,we provided a comprehensive overview of anthropogenic factors on the changes in Lake Urmia along with existing opportunities for better water resources management in Lake Urmia Basin.This study serves as a guideline framework for climate scientists and hydrologists in order to assess the effects of different factors on lake water resources and for decision-makers to formulate strategies and plans according to the management task.