The Potential of Commercial Pension Insurance to Develop into One of the Pillars of Rural Pension Insurance:A Study from the Demand Perspective

The development of a multi-pillar pension insurance system is an effective solution for an aging society.Commercial pension insurance,as the third pillar of pension insurance,is an integral part of this system in China and can play a critical and complementary role in rural areas where support for the elderly is a more pressing concern and a second pillar of pension insurance remains absent.To this end,we first elaborate on the theoretical logic that commercial pension insurance can develop into one of the pillars of rural pension insurance.We then empirically test rural residents’willingness to participate in a commercial pension insurance plan(CPIP)in a probit model with household research data from rural areas in major labor-exporting provinces,such as Sichuan and Henan so as to explore whether commercial pension insurance has the potential to become one of the pillars of rural pension insurance.Our research findings can be synthesized in three points.First,rural residents out of agricultural production for five consecutive years are more willing to participate in a CPIP than other rural residents,indicating that progress in industrialization and urbanization can significantly boost such willingness.Second,the younger rural residents are more inclined to participate in a CPIP than the older generation.Third,income increases can significantly boost rural residents’willingness to participate in a CPIP.Thus,with progress in industrialization and urbanization and an increase in rural disposable income,commercial pension insurance has a promising potential in rural areas and can hopefully develop into one of the pillars of rural pension insurance.

Research on Accounting Issues of the Pension Insurance Fund for Urban Employees

Pension insurance is a vital component of China's social security system,ensuring the welfare of the general publie.This study centers on the revenue and expenses of City S's urban employee basic pension insurance fund.It introduces and analyzes the fund's accounting status from four key perspectives:fund raising.expenditure,financial statement system,and accounting information disclosure.The research identifes existing problems in City S's accounting system and conducts in-depth research on these issues.Furthermore,an empirical analysis is conducted on the management of the pension insurance fund.Through this empirical study,the paper aims to offer insights and recommendations for promoting stable and healthy development measures for City S'8 urban employee basic pension insurance fund.

Study on Improving Development Strategies of New Rural Social Pension Insurance System in Heilongjiang Province

Since 2009, the new rural pension insurance in Heilongjiang Province has obtained certain achievements, but the effects are not obvious. Reflection on the development process, we find that there are a lot of problems. Therefore, in order to guarantee the smooth implementation of new rural social pension insurance work in Heilongjiang Province, this paper combined with the reality to provide several suggestions for improving the new rural social pension insurance system in Heilongjiang Province.

Sensitivity of Personal Account Accumulated Value of New Rural Social Pension Insurance to Variation of Uncertainties

The personal account of new rural social pension insurance raises funds in the form of individual premium-paying,collectively pooled subsidy and government subsidy.The personal account accumulated value has a decisive influence on the payment level of personal account pension.The personal account accumulated value has a direct or indirect relationship with the income level of farmers,premium-paying level,the insured period,investment return rate of funds and other factors.Analysing the impact of infinitesimal variation of these factors on accumulated value of personal account pension,is of great significance to improving and consolidating personal account,and achieving sustainable development of new rural social pension insurance.

The Pay-as-You-Go System of Pension Insurance

The most recent trends in population dynamics have provoked a rigorous debate whether the private or the public pension insurance system should be predominant. The pay-as-you-go system is dominated by the state that guarantees its stability. Private pension insurance provides personal retirement accounts and proper ownership of the accumulated funds, but its sustainability during prolonged market crises and inadequate risk sharing are often questioned. In order to address this issue, this paper makes both an assessment and analysis of the arguments put forward in favor of the preservation of the pay-as-you-go system and a comparison of this system with some of the main characteristics of the private accounts system. This is the basis for seeking the objectively defined role of the pay-as-you-go system in the conditions of the market economy. A couple of conclusions that have been formulated might be of interest for the future improvement of the organization and management of pension insurance.

Tackling China’s Pension Fund Payment Crisis:Will the “Two-Child Policy” Be the Answer?——An example with the basic pension insurance program for urban employees

Based on the reality that 29 Chinese provinces have already implemented the policy allowing a couple to raise a second child if either parent is an only child, this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of this policy on the financial status of the social pooling fund of basic pension insurance for urban employees. Our study suggests the followings. First, under the previous unchanged family planning policy, current deficits and cumulative deficits will occur in the social pooling fund in the year 2047 and 2063 respectively. Second, if lO% to 50% of qualified couples choose to raise a second child, the financial status of the social pooling fund will improve; relative to the previous unchanged family planning policy, the contribution ratio can decrease from 20% to the range between 18.06% and 19.57% without causing any changes to the original financial status of income and expenditure. Third, if the percentage of couples choosing to raise a second child rises to 60% to 100%, the contribution ratio can even decrease to the range between 16.55% and 17. 7% without causing any changes to the financial status as under the previous unchanged family planning policy. The above conclusions have all passed the sensitivity test. Therefore, the ＂two-child policy＂ for qualified couples is favorable to alleviating the payment pressures of pension insurance but the policy effectiveness is subject to fertility desire and the intensity of government implementation.

Effect of Rural Social Pension Insurance on Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods

Based on data of 31 provinces of China in 2019 collected from the National Bureau of Statistics,this paper explores the impact of the number of urban employees’endowment insurance on the total retail sales of social consumer goods in different provinces in China.Taking the population,per capita disposable income,per capita life expectancy,and regional per capita GDP of each province as the variables,this paper establishes regression models to do the empirical research.The results show that:(1)The increase of the number of urban employees’old-age insurance has a significant positive impact on residents’consumption.The wider the coverage of old-age insurance,the more it can enhance the consumption confidence of the residents.(2)Due to the economic development,the level of urbanization has been greatly improved,leading to an increased birth rate and total population,and thus consumption has been driven.Therefore,the increase of the total population has a significant positive effect on the increase of the total retail sales of social consumer goods.(3)The increase of per capita disposable income has insignificant impact on the increase of total retail sales of social consumer goods due to residents’debt,the rise of house prices,the rapid widening of income gap between different groups,and the difficulty of meeting the various needs of people.(4)Although the increase of life expectancy per capita will lead to the decrease of total retail sales of social consumer goods,this decrease is not significant.(5)Per capita GDP will lead to a small increase in the total retail sales of social consumption.Finally,based on the above conclusions,some suggestions to stimulate consumption are given.

Research on the Impact of the Pension Insurance System on the Optimization of the Consumption Structure of Rural Families

Presently,the growth of residents’consumption is slowing,which necessitates the expansion of domestic demand.Against this backdrop,research on the impact of pension insurance on the optimization of the consumption structure in rural areas not only facilitates the welfare of rural residents and improves their consumption structure but also boosts the sustainable and healthy development of the Chinese economy.This paper applies China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)micro-data in 2018 and adopts Propensity Score Matching(PSM)to research the impact of China’s pension insurance system on the consumption structure in rural areas and its heterogeneity.This paper draws a conclusion at four levels.First,pension insurance effectively optimizes the consumption structure in rural areas,increases the current overall consumption level by 0.0024 percent,and objectively releases the consumption potential in rural areas.Second,participation in pension insurance enhances the overall consumption level of rural families in eastern China,central China,and northeastern China by 0.08 percent,0.146 percent,and 0.0446 percent respectively,yet,that inhibits the overall consumption level of rural families in rural areas in western China by 0.1057 percent.Third,from eastern China to western China,with regard to pension insurance,as its impact on consumption shifts from a higher level to a lower level,its impact on the optimization of consumption structures sinks to a lower level.Fourth,in terms of major factors,age(older),matrimonial res(married),years of education(longer),health(poor),and the number of family members(small)contribute to the stronger willingness to participate in pension insurance.

Research on Pension Insurance System under the Background of Aging

With the rapid development of economy in our country, the level of science and technology innovation, all of these prolong the life span of our life. Thus an aging population are increasingly highlight, which are deeply and widely influenced our society, economy, life and other aspects. As the basic insurance which maintain the elderly＇s life quality after they retired, Pension insurance will promove social stability and development. How to reform Pension insurance under the background of the aging of the population will get more and more attention from people. This article starts with the concept of the aging of the population and its development trend. Next, the article analyses the problems of Pension Insurance under the background of the aging of the population. Last, the article summarizes countermeasures according to solve these matters.

Will the State-owned Capital Transfer Policy Enhance the Sustainability of the Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance Fund in China?

To analyze the efect of the state-owned capital transfer policy on the sustainability of China's urban employee basic pension insurance fund(CUEBPIF),this study develops an actuarial model for pension insurance.The results reveal the following:(i)Without policy intervention,the CUEBPIF would face a deficit in 2027 and a cumulative shortfall of RMB207.44 trillion by 2050,and the proportion of fiscal subsidies for the CUEBPIF in the total fiscal expenditure would increase to 12.86 percent in 2050.(i)Based on a delayed retirement policy,the transfer of 10 percent of state-owned capital can delay the onset of the fund deficit by 6 years,and the accumulated shortfall in 2050 would fall to RMB39.42 trillion,and the proportion of fiscal subsidies would decrease by I1.77 percentage points.(ii)The state-owned capital transfer policy can improve the sustainability of the CUEBPIF and reduce the burden of enterprise social security contributions when the transfer ratio increases to 20 percent.

Study on Path to Alleviate Fiscal Pressure from Pension Insurance Fund:Background to the Implementation of the National Pooling System Based on Inter-Regional Fund Surplus and Deficit Adjustment

In January 2022,China introduced a national pooling system for pension insurance fund,With the objective of inter-regional fund surplus and deficit adjustment.With the ongoing trend of population aging,can the national pooling and adjustment system operate sustainably?What level of fiscal obligations does it entail?This is related to the long-term stability of pension insurance fund and the whole social security system.This paper employs econometric and actuarial models to assess the sustainability of the national pooling and adjustment system under five scenarios:(1)not introducing any policy interventions;(2)implementing parameter reforms such as expanding pension insurance coverage,progressively extending retirement age,and enhancing collection rates;(3)transferring state-owned capital from central state-owned enterprises to strengthen the social security fund;(4)transitioning the national pooling and adjustment system from turning over current surplus to accumulated surplus;and(5)implementing all parameter reforms,transferring state-owned capital,and turning over accumulated surpluses.The results suggest that a coordinated implementation of reform measures like pension insurance parameter adjustments,reallocation of state-owned capital to enhance social security funds,and leveraging the national pooling and adjustment system for turning over accumulated surplus can ensure the sustainability of the system and significantly alleviatefiscalpressures.

Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability of China and the US

The fiscal sustainability of China and the United States is of major concern globally. Based on comparative data analysis, this paper reveals that the government debt level of both countries is within the normal range. Robust growth prospects of both countries will also vigorously support their future mitigation of government debt level. Comparatively speaking, China＇s government debt level is healthy and, despite extensive concerns, even its local government debt is not very high. The assessment that China may encounter a crisis is not supported by evidence. Yet in the long run, both countries will face pressures from increased fiscal spending on elder care and healthcare stemming from an ageing population, which will threaten their fiscal sustainability. These challenges require both countries to speed up reforms of elder care and healthcare. Specifically, China needs to focus on elder care reforms and the US should attach more importance to healthcare reforms.

Analysis on the Reform and Improvement of Institutions Retiree Income System

Norms of the institution retiree subsidies are important measures to protect and improve people's livelihood, as well as maintain the stability of the retiree group. The income of institution retiree was studied by analyzing its policies and implementations, also some problems were pointed out such as lacking of subsidy standards,no convergence with the historical data,and the existence of special subsidies. Hence,in order to make a smooth transition and improve the pension insurance system of institution, implementing differentiating subsidies and establishing multi-pillar pension insurance system were proposed to solve the problems above.

Risk Control of Pension Fund Management in China

Based on an analysis of China ＇s current pension system, the present paper indicates that risk control of pension fund management is a serious policy challenge for the Chinese Government. Although some reform efforts have been made, there are still serious institutional and capital market risks that are difficult to overcome but are key in the success of China＇s pension reform. To ensure a smooth transition in pension reform, China not only needs to build a better institutional framework and facilitate capital market development, but also raise the risk awareness of individual pensioners.

System innovation:the key to pension reform

Along with the accelerated advancement of population aging,China’s economic development has led Chinese residents’income to a moderate level.However,the unfair and unsustainable features of“dual standard of pension insurance”for both rural and urban cadre and employees have become so increasingly prominent that the time to change it has come.The top-level design of pension insurance should be taken shape on the basis of clarifying such concepts as old-age security,insurance,system,institution,and mechanism,and be carried out gradually in several steps at different levels.At the first level,basic pension insurance system should be reformed and created;at the second level,a new institution for pension insurance system should be reformed and created;at the third level,reform and improvements are made to compensate pension insurance system.Among these,the key is to establish a uniform pension insurance system for both urban and rural cadre and employees which is primarily dependent on individuals’payment and secondly by enterprises(units).Such institutional innovation requires initiatives from both government and market towards a market-oriented reform.

From“selective two-child policy”to universal two-child policy:Will the payment crisis of China’s pension system be solved?

With the rapid population aging,the payment crisis of China’s pension insurance fund is increasing yearly.The government adjusts fertility policy to alleviate population aging and improve the solvency of pension insurance fund.On January1,2016,China’s fertility policy was adjusted from“selective two-child policy”to universal two-child policy.This paper establishes actuarial models to analyze how fertility policy adjustment influences the pension insurance fund and concludes as follows:(1)if the“one-child policy”were still employed,the accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would appear in the year of 2076;(2)if all couples that satisfy the rules of“selective two-child policy”bear the second child,the time of accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would be postponed by about 9 years;(3)after implementing universal two-child policy,the time of accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would delay under different situations of fertility intentions,if more than 54% of the qualified couples bear a second child,the accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would not appear before 2090.The above conclusions have passed the sensitivity tests.Therefore,“two-child policy”can alleviate the payment pressure of pension insurance fund.If the government wants to solve the payment crisis of pension insurance fund,fertility intentions should be improved.

Will the House for Pension Scheme Succeed?

China is now home to more than 200 million people above the age of60.Generally,the elderly are either supported by their children or live on pensions.In recent years,a new idea for senior care,the house for pension scheme,has become a hot topic.

Old Age Security: A Case from Rural Suzhou

During the course of urbanization and industrialization, a growing number of farmers have become landless as local governments have bought out their land for non-agricultural uses. Even in the localities where the industrialization process absorbs a vast majority of rural labor, the questions of how to compensate for the economic shock on the rural landless and how to alleviate and eliminate mental suffering as a result of losing land have always been a challenge to government capacity in social stabilization and a yardstick to measure social justice in local communities. In the administration areas of Suzhou City in Jiangsu Province, governments at all levels have successfully coped with this challenge. By means of ＂swapping land for old-age support＂ and income redistribution, Suzhou municipality has not only met the demand on land for urbanization and industrialization while maintaining social stability, but also laid a foundation for establishing an integrated pension system for both urban and rural residents. Such a system has changed the tradition of farmers＇ households relying on land to deal with economic risk and of the aged depending on their sons for livelihood support in rural society.

PREMIER ON THE ECONOMY AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Editor’s Note：At a two-hour-long press conference at the end of this year’s National People’s Congress session on March 16,Premier Li Keqiang took questions from 17domestic and international media outlets on a wide range of issues.