Bayesian estimator of human error probability based on human performance data

A Bayesian method for estimating human error probability（HEP） is presented.The main idea of the method is incorporating human performance data into the HEP estimation process.By integrating human performance data and prior information about human performance together,a more accurate and specific HEP estimation can be achieved.For the time-unrelated task without rigorous time restriction,the HEP estimated by the common-used human reliability analysis（HRA） methods or expert judgments is collected as the source of prior information.And for the time-related task with rigorous time restriction,the human error is expressed as non-response making.Therefore,HEP is the time curve of non-response probability（NRP）.The prior information is collected from system safety and reliability specifications or by expert judgments.The（joint） posterior distribution of HEP or NRP-related parameter（s） is constructed after prior information has been collected.Based on the posterior distribution,the point or interval estimation of HEP/NRP is obtained.Two illustrative examples are introduced to demonstrate the practicality of the aforementioned approach.

Representation of Performance Data in Grid Systems

The increasingly frequent exchange of performance data in grid systems across heterogeneous platforms requires a uniform 搑epresentation?of various types of performance data. This paper reviews the current related research, considers the defect of existing methods, and proposes a new portable description method: grid performance data description (GPDD) using an extensible markup language (XML)-based grid performance data representation language (XGPDRL). GPDD describes the abstract structure, which has excellent extensibility (all types of performance data can be described in one format), efficiency, and flexibil-ity. XGPDRL defines the grammar of the GPDD performance data representation, and is both extensible and portable. For benchmarking purposes, performance data can be collected during runtime, represented in XGPDRL, and analyzed visually using a browser across heterogeneous platforms. GPDD and XGPDRL can conveniently ensure data comprehension across various platforms, and are very suitable for grid per-formance data representation.

COATED CARBIDE TOOL'S CUTTING PERFORMANCE AND ITS DATA BASE

The development and application of coated cemented carbide made in China are pres-ented. Three aspects of the coated carbide tool's performance: cutting forces, surface finish and toollife are studied. Furthermore speed-correcting coefficients of the tool are given. On the basis of thework, a data base for coated carbide tools has been built on a microcomputer. It consists of fivemodules. essential data base, tools' comparison and inquiry, recommending cutting regimes, exper.imental curve base and an expert system for tool selection.

Real-time performance of periodic data transmission in EPA industrial Ethernet

To evaluate and improve the real-time performance of Ethernet for plant automation（EPA） industrial Ethernet,the real-time performance of EPA periodic data transmission was theoretically and experimentally studied.By analyzing information transmission regularity and EPA deterministic scheduling mechanism,periodic messages were categorized as different modes according to their entering-queue time.The scheduling characteristics and delivery time of each mode and their interacting relations were studied,during which the models of real-time performance of periodic information transmission in EPA system were established.On this basis,an experimental platform is developed to test the delivery time of periodic messages transmission in EPA system.According to the analysis and the experiment,the main factors that limit the real-time performance of EPA periodic data transmission and the improvement methods were proposed.

Improving Performance of Cloud Computing and Big Data Technologies and Applications

Cloud computing technology is changing the development and usage patterns of IT infrastructure and applications. Virtualized and distributed systems as well as unified management and scheduling has greatly im proved computing and storage. Management has become easier, andOAM costs have been significantly reduced. Cloud desktop technology is develop ing rapidly. With this technology, users can flexibly and dynamically use virtual ma chine resources, companies＇ efficiency of using and allocating resources is greatly improved, and information security is ensured. In most existing virtual cloud desk top solutions, computing and storage are bound together, and data is stored as im age files. This limits the flexibility and expandability of systems and is insufficient for meetinz customers＇ requirements in different scenarios.

A new method for improving the inductively coupled data transmission rate of mooring buoy based on carrier signal frequency selection

In the inductively coupled data transmission system of the mooring buoy, the carrier signal frequency of the transmission channel is limited due to the inherent characteristics of the system, resulting in limited channel bandwidth. The limited channel bandwidth limits the increase in inductively coupled data transmission rate.In order to improve the inductively coupled data transmission rate of mooring buoy as much as possible without damaging the data transmission performance, a new method was proposed in this paper. The method is proposed to improve the data transmission rate by selecting the appropriate carrier signal frequencies based on the principle of maximizing the amplitude value of amplitude-frequency characteristic curve of the system. Research has been done according to this method as follows. Firstly, according to the inductively coupled transmission mooring buoy structure, the inductively coupled data transmission circuit model was established. The binary frequency shift keying(2FSK) digital signal modulation mode was selected. Through theoretical analysis, the relation between the carrier signal frequency and the data transmission performance, the relation between the carrier signal frequency and the 2FSK signal bandwidth were obtained. Secondly, the performance and the bandwidth of the signal transmission were studied for the inherent characteristics of the actual inductively coupled data transmission system. The amplitude-frequency characteristic of the system was analyzed by experiments. By selecting the appropriate carrier signal frequency parameters, an excellent data transmission performance was guaranteed and a large 2FSK signal bandwidth was obtained. Finally, an inductively coupled data transmission rate optimization experiment and a bit error rate analysis experiment were designed and carried out. The results show that the high-speed and reliable data transmission of the system was realized and the rate can reach 100 kbps.

Global parameter estimation of the Cochlodinium polykrikoides model using bioassay data

Cochlodinium polykrikoides is a notoriously harmful algal species that inflicts severe damage on the aquacultures of the coastal seas of Korea and Japan. Information on their expected movement tracks and boundaries of influence is very useful and important for the effective establishment of a reduction plan. In general, the information is supported by a red-tide（a.k.a algal bloom） model. The performance of the model is highly dependent on the accuracy of parameters, which are the coefficients of functions approximating the biological growth and loss patterns of the C. polykrikoides. These parameters have been estimated using the bioassay data composed of growth-limiting factor and net growth rate value pairs. In the case of the C. polykrikoides, the parameters are different from each other in accordance with the used data because the bioassay data are sufficient compared to the other algal species. The parameters estimated by one specific dataset can be viewed as locally-optimized because they are adjusted only by that dataset. In cases where the other one data set is used, the estimation error might be considerable. In this study, the parameters are estimated by all available data sets without the use of only one specific data set and thus can be considered globally optimized. The cost function for the optimization is defined as the integrated mean squared estimation error, i.e., the difference between the values of the experimental and estimated rates. Based on quantitative error analysis, the root-mean squared errors of the global parameters show smaller values, approximately 25%–50%, than the values of the local parameters. In addition, bias is removed completely in the case of the globally estimated parameters. The parameter sets can be used as the reference default values of a red-tide model because they are optimal and representative. However, additional tuning of the parameters using the in-situ monitoring data is highly required.As opposed to the bioassay data, it is necessary because the bioassay data have limitations in terms of the in-situ coastal conditions.

Anomalous Cell Detection with Kernel Density-Based Local Outlier Factor

Since data services are penetrating into our daily life rapidly, the mobile network becomes more complicated, and the amount of data transmission is more and more increasing. In this case, the traditional statistical methods for anomalous cell detection cannot adapt to the evolution of networks, and data mining becomes the mainstream. In this paper, we propose a novel kernel density-based local outlier factor(KLOF) to assign a degree of being an outlier to each object. Firstly, the notion of KLOF is introduced, which captures exactly the relative degree of isolation. Then, by analyzing its properties, including the tightness of upper and lower bounds, sensitivity of density perturbation, we find that KLOF is much greater than 1 for outliers. Lastly, KLOFis applied on a real-world dataset to detect anomalous cells with abnormal key performance indicators(KPIs) to verify its reliability. The experiment shows that KLOF can find outliers efficiently. It can be a guideline for the operators to perform faster and more efficient trouble shooting.

Study on the performance of data fusion system for sonar signal detection

The mathematical model and fusion algorithm for multisensor data fusion are presented, and applied to integrate the decisions obtained by multiple sonars in a distributed detection system. Assuming that all the sonars and the fusion system operate at the same false alarm probability, the expression for the detection probability of the fusion system is obtained. Computer simulations reveals that the detection probability and detection range of the fusion system are significantly improved compared to the original distributed detection system.

Analysis of Angular Side Berthing Against a Rubber Cone Fender

This paper analyzes fender selection process in berth design and focuses on the case of a rigid berth with rubber cone fenders.Fender types and performance comparison methods are studied along with current numerical models.Berth design methods are analyzed with a focus on berthing energy calculation and fender selection.A new approach to determine the required fender capacity is suggested.A finite elements rubber cone model is tested and used in simulations of angular side berthing.Results show that the energy absorbed by the fender can be much higher than what can be calculated with the current berth design method.A new form for the expression of the energy that must be absorbed by the fender during angular berthing impact is suggested.