Effect of climate change and railway embankment on the degradation of underlain permafrost

Because of the global warming and the increasing human activity, the air temperature and the precipitation along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway increased gradually in recent years, which endanger the permafrost table, the embankment of the railway. The statistics of the air temperature, the precipitation and the geothermal temperature in recent 50 years in this dissertation come from the four weather station along the railway, that are Wudaoliang Station, Fenghuo Mountains Sta- tion, Tuotuo River Station and Ando Station. This dissertation analyzes the change of climate along the railway and then develops a research on the effect of the changing geothermal temperature on permafrost table and its countermeasures. The experiment result shows that the air temperature of the permafrost region rise steadily in about 50 years, especially in this century, the tendency of rising temperature is more obvious. The precipitation fluctuates but it is also rising rapidly, for the largest precipitation reached 492.6 mm. For 30 years now, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has been in the megathermal period, which also affects the permafrost region along the railway. The condition of permafrost is degrading greatly.

Simulation of permafrost changes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China, over the past three decades

Permafrost is one of the largest elements of the terrestrial cryosphere and is extremely sensitive to climate change.Based on mean annual ground temperature(MAGT)data from 189 boreholes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau(QTP),terrain factors,and climate data from China Meteorological Forcing Dataset,we propose a new mean annual ground air temperature(MAGAT)statistical model between meteorological parameters with subsurface temperatures to simulate permafrost distribution and variation of MAGT on the QTP over the past three decades(1981–2010).Validation of the model with MAGT data from 13 boreholes and permafrost maps of the QTP indicated that the MAGAT model is applicable to simulate the distribution and evolution of permafrost on the QTP.Simulation results show that the spatiotemporal MAGT of permafrost significantly increased by 0.37℃,or 0.25℃/10 yr,and the total area of permafrost decreased by 2.48×10^(5)km^(2) on the QTP over the past three decades.Regionally,the changes of permafrost in the southwestern QTP were greater than other regions of the QTP.

Numerical modeling and prediction of future response of permafrost to different climate change scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Projecting the future distribution of permafrost under different climate change scenarios is essential,especially for the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau(QTP).The altitude-response model is used to estimate future permafrost changes on the QTP for the four RCPs(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0,and RCP8.5).The simulation results show the following:(1)from now until 2070,the permafrost will experience different degrees of significant degradation under the four RCP scenarios.This will affect 25.68%,40.54%,45.95%,and 62.84%of the current permafrost area,respectively.(2)The permafrost changes occur at different rates during the periods 2030–2050 and 2050–2070 for the four different RCPs.(1)In RCP2.6,the permafrost area decreases a little during the period 2030–2050 but shows a small increase from 2050 to 2070.(2)In RCP4.5,the rate of permafrost loss during the period 2030–2050(about 12.73%)is higher than between 2050 and 2070(about 8.33%).(3)In RCP6.0,the permafrost loss rate for the period 2030–2050(about 16.52%)is similar to that for 2050–2070(about 16.67%).(4)In RCP8.5,there is a significant discrepancy in the rate of permafrost decrease for the periods 2030–2050 and 2050–2070:the rate is only about 3.70%for the first period but about 29.49%during the second.