Inflation and Unemployment Trade-off:Is Phillips Curve True for African Developing Countries?Evidence from Sudan

The relationship between wage inflation and unemployment(Phillips Curve)is controversial in economic thought,and the controversy is centered around whether there is always a trade-off or not.If this relati-onship is negative it is called The short-run Fillips Curve.However,in the long run,this relationship may probable not exist.The matter of how inflation and unemployment influence economic growth,is debatably among macroeconomic policymakers.This study examines the behavior of the Phillips Curve in Sudan and its effect on economic growth.

Is the Phillips Curve Valid in China？

Is the ＂non-existence＂ of the Phillips curve in China a truth or just an illusion due to the deficiency of data？ Should policy analysis follow the light of New-Keynesian or New-classical economics？ These questions require empirical work on the Phillips curve, which has long been limited in China due to an inaccurate unemployment rate and unreliable estimated output gap. Instead of the insignificant or self-contradicting results in previous work, this paper puts forward a significant estimation, creatively using the vacancy-jobseeker ratio instead of the unemployment rate. It is suggested that a robust Phillips curve cannot be ignored and New-Keynesian economics should be employed in policy analysis in the short run.

Globalization and Inflation

Deglobalization and elevated inflation are important features of the current world economy.Will the reversing of globalization affect the level and formation mechanism of inflation in the countries(or regions)?This paper selects 163 sample economies and constructs an index system in measurement of globalization.On such basis,it integrates the index system into the hybrid Phillips curve under the condition of open economy to study the influence of globalization on inflation and the logical mechanism and to further evaluate the driving effect of deglobalization on global inflation.The result shows a deflation effect of globalization,and the effect decreases first and then grow as the globalization level of a country(or region)improves.To further investigate the formation mechanism of inflation,the paper decomposes inflation into inflation trend and inflation cycle.As far as inflation trend is concerned,trade globalization marked by participation in global value chain is the main driver of downward infation trend in developed economies,while globalization of information and finance is the primary driver of downward trend in emerging and developing economies.As to inflation cycle,trade globalization makes inflation cycle of the countries(or regions)more sensitive to price of international commodities and forms a linkage through trade network.Since the outbreak of the major public health emergency in 2020,the reversing of globalization drove up inflation of the countries(or regions),and those with higher participation in global value chain have higher level of inflation.