China’s Recent Progresses in Polar Climate Change and Its Interactions with the Global Climate System

During the recent four decades since 1980,a series of modern climate satellites were launched,allowing for the measurement and record-keeping of multiple climate parameters,especially over the polar regions where traditional observations are difficult to obtain.China has been actively engaging in polar expeditions.Many observations were conducted during this period,accompanied by improved Earth climate models,leading to a series of insightful understandings concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate changes.Here,we review the recent progress China has made concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate change research over the past decade.The Arctic temperature increase is much higher than the global-mean warming rate,associated with a rapid decline in sea ice,a phenomenon called the Arctic Amplification.The Antarctic climate changes showed a zonally asymmetric pattern over the past four decades,with most of the fastest changes occurring over West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula.The Arctic and Antarctic climate changes were driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and ozone loss,while tropical-polar teleconnections play important roles in driving the regional climate changes and extreme events over the polar regions.Polar climate changes may also feedback to the entire Earth climate system.The adjustment of the circulation in both the troposphere and the stratosphere contributed to the interactions between the polar climate changes and lower latitudes.Climate change has also driven rapid Arctic and Southern ocean acidification.Chinese researchers have made a series of advances in understanding these processes,as reviewed in this paper.

Overview of China Polar Climate Change Annual Report(2022)

The China Meteorological Administration recently released China Polar Climate Change Annual Report(2022)in Chinese,with the following main conclusions.Using the China Reanalysis-40 dataset(CRA-40),rapid warming has been observed in the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica since 1979,with some parts of East Antarctica also experiencing warming.In 2022,the regional average temperature in Antarctica based on observational data was close to the long-term average(1991-2020).The Arctic,on the other hand,has experienced a warming trend at a rate of 0.63℃per decade from 1979 to 2022 based on CRA-40,which is 3.7 times the global mean during the same period(0.17℃per decade).In 2022,the overall temperature in the Arctic,using station data,was 1.10℃above the long-term average(1991-2020).In recent years,both the Antarctic and Arctic regions have witnessed an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.In 2022,based on the sea ice extent from National Snow and Ice Data Center,USA,Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest extent on record since 1979,and on 18 March,the most rapid surface warming event ever recorded on Earth occurred in the Antarctic,with a temperature increase of 49℃within 3 d.This report has been integrated into China's National Climate Change Bulletin system,to contribute to raising public awareness of polar climate change and providing valuable scientific references to address climate change.

A Preliminary Study on the Polar Climate Predictability

Studies have revealed that predictability of the atmospheric general circulation is generally high in the tropics throughout the year and that there is some predictability in the Northern extra-tropical winter atmospheric circulation through some patterns of tele connection. Predictability of the general circulation at the polar regions has still remained as a ‘ cold’ topic and little has been known about this question. Based on a preliminary study on the predictability by using the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) general circulation model, it is found that the SST-related predictability of the Southern winter lower atmospheric circulation in Antarctica is reasonably high and that there is some predictability in the 500 hPa and 200 hPa geopotential height fields over Europe and the Okhotsk Sea region during the Northern winter. It is suggested that more researches on this issue based on data analysis and model simulations are needed to obtain better understanding.

Temperature biases in modeled polar climate and adoption of physical parameterization schemes

An annual cycle of atmospheric variations for 1989 in the Arctic has been simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model. A severe cold bias was found around a cold center in surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean, compared with results from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Four successive numerical experiments have been carried out to find out the reasons for this. The results show that the sea ice albedo scheme has the biggest influence in summer, and the effect of the cloud microphysics scheme is significant in both summer and winter. The effect of phase transition between ice and water has the biggest influence over the region near the sea ice edge in summer, and contributes little to improvement of the severe cold bias. The origi- nal crude albedo parameterization in the surface process scheme is the main reason for the large simulated cold bias of the cold center in summer. With a different land surface scheme than in the control run, cold biases of simulated surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean are greatly reduced, by as much as 10 K, implying that the land surface scheme is critical for polar climate simulation.

Workshop on Polar Climate Changes and Extreme Events

Polar climate systems have experienced a number of dramatic changes （Wang et al., 2017; Turner et al., 2016; Gordon, 2014; Rignot et al., 2013; Meier et al., 2012; Kwok and Rothrock, 2009; Thompson and Solomon, 2002）, which have influenced climatic conditions across large parts of the globe through large-scale atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections （Dou and Wu, 2018; Zhang et al., 2018;

Multi-scale variation characteristics of polar vortex at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere

By use of 1948-2007 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly geopotential data, a set of circulation indices are defined to characterize the polar vortex at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere, including area-（S）, intensity-（P） and centre position-（λc , φc） indices. Sea-sonal variation, interannual anomalies and their possible causes of 10 hPa polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere are analyzed by using these indices, the relationship between 10 hPa polar vortex strength and the Antarctic Oscillation are analyzed as well. The results show that： （1） the polar region at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere is controlled by anticyclone （cyclone） from Dec. to Jan. （from Mar. to Oct.）, Feb. and Nov. are circulation transition seasons. （2） Intensity index （P） and area index （S） of anticy-clone （cyclone） in Jan. （Jul.） show a significant spike in the late 1970s, the anticyclone （cyclone） enhances （weakens） from ex-tremely weak （strong） oscillation to near the climatic mean before a spike, anticyclone tends to the mean state from very strong oscillation and cyclone oscillates in the weaker state after the spike. （3） There is significant interdecadal change for the anticyclone center in Jan., while markedly interannual variation for cyclone center in July. （4） The ozone anomalies can cause the interannual anomaly of the polar anticyclone at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere in Jan. （positive correlation between them）, but it is not related to the polar cyclone anomalies. （5） There is notable negative correlation between the polar vortex intensity index P and the Antarctic Oscillation index （AAOI）, thus AAOI can be represented by P.

Study of the climatic teleconnection between the Siberian high and maritime continent warm pool

This paper attempts to establish a method for analysing the relationship between the polar and equatorial climate of the Northern Hemisphere. The Arctic Oscillation （AO） is known to have no direct relationship with the monsoon over the Maritime Continent （MC）. Thus, an index called the Siberian High（SH^Maritime Continent（MC） Index （SHMCI） is developed to represent the mean sea level pressure difference between the SH and the warm pool over the MC. This index indicates a strong link with the monsoon circulation. A positive （strong） value of the SHMCI is associated with strong meridional winds and intense and frequent cold surge events over the South China Sea. The correlation between the AO index and the SHMCI is -0.39, which is medium but statistically significant; however, it is not sufficiently conclusive to infer direct correlation. Nevertheless, the SHMCI can be used as a tool to relate the AO with the monsoon over the MC because of the influence demonstrated by the AO towards the SH. Further analysis on the convergence and divergence anomalies over the MC reveals an impact discernible only from the SHMCI. This implies that the SHMCI manifests clearly the relationship between the Arctic and equatorial climate.