Impact assessment of river sand resource shortage under different policy scenarios in China

More than half of the annual global concrete materials were produced in China due to the rapid developing construction industry,which partly led to the shortage of river sand.However,mining rate exceeds the natural replenishment rate of river sand recently,resulting in depletion of natural river sand accumulation.The increasing demand of river sand influences lots of aspects including altered landforms,increasing carbon emissions,ecological deterioration,international trades and disputes.To face the river sand resource shortage in China and to propose possible coping strategies,the data of river sand for construction in China and other related data were collected,and it is suggested that effective policy measures should be taken right now to protect river sand and strictly manage sand mining.Professional solutions for river sand shortage can be summarized as“5Rs”principle,which includes reduce,recycle.reuse,replace and recover.System dynamic model is established to predict the trend of river sand shortage and it was predicted that the gap between river sand supply and demand will come up to 63%.The impact of three policy scenarios is tested in the model,and the gap can be reduced to 35%by single policy scenario,while the scenario with all policy measures is able to reduce the contradiction between supply and demand to 4%.Suggestions are proposed from the aspects of structural and material technology,policy measures and international alliances.Attention should be paid to the shortage of river resources,to realize the sustainable development of the construction industry and other related industries,and to promote the harmonious coexistence of human and nature.

The economic impact of emission peaking control policies and China's sustainable development

To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%-22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%-8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.

Estimates of Variation in Chinese Terrestrial Carbon Storage Under an Environmental Conservation Policy Scenario for 2000-2025

Policies always have strong impacts on land-use and land-cover change （LUCC）,and thus indirectly affect the terrestrial carbon balance.In this paper,land use change from 2010 to 2025 in China was simulated with the Dynamics Land System （DLS） under an environmental conservation policy scenario,and the projected effect of this policy scenario on Chinese terrestrial carbon storage was evaluated.Under the simulation,forest coverage will increase by 23% while cropland and grassland will decrease by 37% and 11% respectively.Due to the large expansion of forest coverage,the forest carbon storage will have an accumulation of 66.0 Tg C y-1.This will take place mainly in central China in a band from the northeast to southwest.Grasslands,however,will be a carbon source of 5.7 Tg C y-1 in the same period as a result of the transformation of grassland to woodlands or deserts.As the carbon storage capacity of forest soil is considerably higher than that of grassland and cropland,such LUCC will eventually result in a soil carbon accumulation of 13.3 Tg C y-1.From 2000 to 2025,the carbon storage of Chinese terrestrial ecosystem is likely to increase by 1.8 Pg C,and thus the terrestrial ecosystem will be a carbon sink of 0.074 Pg C y-1,89.6% of which will result from an increase in forest carbon storage.

China＇s Macroeconomic Outlook and Risk Assessment： Counterfactual Analysis, Policy Simulation, and Long-Term Governance- A Summary of Annual Report （2015-2016）

Abstract This summary report highlights the confluence of continued downward pressures and deflation scares in the face of looming uncertainty in China＇s key macroeconomic landscapes. Counterfactual analyses and policy simulations are conducted, in addition to benchmark forecasts, based on IAR-CMM model and taking into account both cyclical and secular factors. Economic deceleration is projected to continue in the short to medium term, with real GDP growth declining to 6.3% （5.5% using more reliable instead of official data） in 2016 and facing a significant risk of sliding further down in 2017. Five key factors contributing to the weak outlook, additional to frictions and impediments associated with economic transition/restructuring and lackluster domestic/external demands, are identified, including： lack of new growth/ development engine, exhaustion of government-led driving force, the crowding-out of private sectors by state-owned enterprises （SOEs） with excess capacity／capital overhang, nonperforming government sectors and officials, and twist or misinterpretation of the ＂New Normal.＂ A root cause of these problems, lying with sluggishness in China＇s transformation into a market based economy, has to do with overpowered government but underpowered market in resource allocation and government underperformance in enforcing integrity and transparency in the marketplace and in providing public goods and services. At the nexus between inclusive growth and institutional transformation are market oriented and rule of law governed structural reforms and harmonious development. As such, fundamental institutional reforms that dialectically balance demand and supply side factors and properly weigh short run stabilization against long run development should be elevated to the top of the agenda.

Development and case study of a science-based software platform to support policy making on air quality

This article describes the development and implementations of a novel software platform that supports real-time, science-based policy making on air quality through a user-friendly interface. The software, RSM-VAT, uses a response surface modeling（RSM） methodology and serves as a visualization and analysis tool（VAT） for three-dimensional air quality data obtained by atmospheric models. The software features a number of powerful and intuitive data visualization functions for illustrating the complex nonlinear relationship between emission reductions and air quality benefits. The case study of contiguous U.S.demonstrates that the enhanced RSM-VAT is capable of reproducing the air quality model results with Normalized Mean Bias 〈 2% and assisting in air quality policy making in near real time.

Climate Transition Risk and Development Finance： A Carbon Risk Assessment of China＇s Overseas Energy Portfolios

The role of development finance institutions in low-income and emerging countries is fundamental to provide long-term capital for investments in climate mitigation and adaptation. Nevertheless, development finance institutions still lack sound and transparent metrics to assess their projects＇ exposure to climate risks and their impact on global climate action. To attempt to fill this gap, we develop a novel climate stress-test methodology for portfolios of loans to energy infrastructure projects. We apply the methodology to the portfolios of overseas energy projects of two main Chinese policy banks. We estimate their exposure to economic and financial shocks that would result in government inability to introduce timely 2~C-aligned climate policies and from investors＂ inability to adapt their business to the changing climate and policy environment. We find that the negative shocks are mostly concentrated on coal and oil projects and vary across regions from 4.2 to 22 percent of the total loan value. Given the current leverage of Chinese policy banks, these losses could induce severe financial distress, with implications on