A Population Dynamics Approach to the Distribution of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbit

The presence of the debris in the Earth’s orbit poses a significant risk to human activity in outer space.This debris population continues to grow due to ground launches,the loss of external parts from space ships,and uncontrollable collisions between objects.A computationally feasible continuum model for the growth of the debris population and its spatial distribution is therefore critical.Here we propose a diffusion-collision model for the evolution of the debris density in the low-Earth orbit and its dependence on the ground-launch policy.We parametrize this model and test it against data from publicly available object catalogs to examine timescales for the uncontrolled growth.Finally,we consider sensible launch policies and cleanup strategies and how they reduce the future risk of collisions with active satellites or space ships.

Model fitting of the seasonal population dynamics of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura, in the field

The soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura(Hemiptera: Aphididae), is one of the greatest threats to soybean production, and both trend analysis and periodic analysis of its population dynamics are important for integrated pest management(IPM). Based on systematically investigating soybean aphid populations in the field from 2018 to 2020, this study adopted the inverse logistic model for the first time, and combined it with the classical logistic model to describe the changes in seasonal population abundance from colonization to extinction in the field. Then, the increasing and decreasing phases of the population fluctuation were divided by calculating the inflection points of the models, which exhibited distinct seasonal trends of the soybean aphid populations in each year. In addition, multifactor logistic models were then established for the first time, in which the abundance of soybean aphids in the field changed with time and relevant environmental conditions. This model enabled the prediction of instantaneous aphid abundance at a given time based on relevant meteorological data. Taken as a whole, the successful approaches implemented in this study could be used to build a theoretical framework for practical IPM strategies for controlling soybean aphids.

Population Dynamics and Breeding Space Niche of Four Heron Species in Tanghai Wetlands

The population dynamics and breeding behaviors of Black-crowned Night Herons （ Nycticorax nycticorax ）, Egrets （Egtetta garzetta）, Chinese Pond Herons （Ardeola bacchus） and Great Egrets （Casmerodius albus） were observed in Tanghai Wetlands, Hebei Province from August 2004 to July 2005. Further, we studied the relationship of nest space distribution and directly calculated the nest density of vertical and horizontal levels, the niche overlapping index and the niche breadth. The results showed that there were two breeding areas, named Area Ⅰ and Area Ⅱ . The maximum population occurred in the period from April to September and was approximately 5800 individuals. Area Ⅰ was occupied earlier than Area Ⅱ by approximately half a month. In the breeding period, Black-crowned Night Herons were dominant in numbers and most occupied the upper nests of the core areas. Great Egrets also took the upper nests but they have the smallest population. Most Egrets took the middle nests of the edges of the area. Chinese Pond Herons, with a smaller population than the Egret, mostly nested in the edges, but some of them also took the lower nests of the core area. On the whole, the vertical niche of Egrets is the widest, the horizontal niche of Black-crowned Night Herons is the widest and the niche breadth of Chinese Pond Herons is the largest. The nest distribution pattern is the most similar between Chinese Pond Herons and Black-crowned Night Herons, and the niche overlapping index of Chinese Pond Herons and Egrets is the largest. Black-crowned Night Herons and Great Egrets control Egrets and Chinese Pond Herons in competition. Rich food and the optimal ecological environments lead to plenty of herons in the wetlands. In addition, it is a distinguishing feature of the four species that nests are built in poplar trees over 22 m tall.

Effects of Interspecific Competition on the Population Dynamics of Four Stored Grain Insect Pests

The effects of interspecific competition on the population dynamics of four insect grain Insecp pests （ Sitophilus zeamais, Rhizopertha dominica, Tribolium castaneum and Cryptolestes ferrugineus ） was studied at 30℃, 75% relative humidity. A regression analysis of the population dynamics was conducted. The results showed that population growth of S. zeamais , R. dominica, T. castaneum and C. ferrugineus was restrained under mixed rearing. Population growth of T. castaneum and C. ferrugineus was remarkably accelerated when they coexisted with S. zeamais or R. dominica, while that of S. zeamais and R. dominica was restrained to some extent. Regression analysis results showed that the population growth potential of S. zeamais was the largest and that of C. ferrugineus was the smallest, and the changing trends of population growth rates were not distinct.

Factors regulating population dynamics of the amphipod Ampithoe valida in a eutrophic subtropical coastal lagoon

Year-round investigations were carried out to address the population dynamics of amphipod Ampithoe val- ida and its potential regulating factors in the Yundang Lagoon （a eutrophic subtropical coastal lagoon in Xiamen City, China） from October 2007 to October 2008. The results show that A. valida population was largely composed of juveniles and reached a peak abundance （12.02× 10^3 ind./m2） in March, but sharply shrunk in July. The monthly variation pattern ofA. valida seemed to follow that of Ulva lactuca which is the main food resource for A. valida, indicating a strong influence of food availability on A. valida popu- lation dynamics. Life cycle studies in laboratory indicate that A. valida adopted an r-selected life strategy, e.g., rapid growth rate （0.216-0.302 mm/d）, consecutive breeding （4-10 times）, short reproductive rhythm （9-17 d） and huge fecundity （24-192 eggs or 6-94 juveniles per brood）, which contributed to the fast pop- ulation growth ofA. valida from January to March. Although temperature may also be a significant cause, A. valida could grow quickly and show normal reproductive traits （i.e., the timing of sexual differentiation or maturity, the reproductive rhythm, the number of broods all through its lifespan and offspring produc- tion） in temperature between 15-30~ C. Therefore, the temperature variation in the lagoon water should not account for the sharp variation of A. valida population by affecting the survival, growth and reproduction of the amphipod. However, negative correlation between water temperature and U. lactuca biomass in the lagoon suggested that temperature could have indirectly affected the population dynamics ofA. ualida by affecting its food availability. The authors conclude that, in the Yundang Lagoon, the population dynamics ofA. validawas mainly controlled by the food availability rather than water temperature.

Population Dynamics and Fourier Series Analysis of Toona ciliata of Qizimeishan Nature Reserve

To investigate the population dynamics of Toona ciliata in Qizimeishan Na- ture Reserve, the age classes and population quantity of Toona clliata in Qizimeishan were analyzed by transforming diameter classes into corresponding age classes. A static life table was prepared. Moreover, the curves of survival rate, mortality rate and killing powder were drawn so as to perform spectral analysis for Toona clliata in Qizimeishan Nature Reserve. The results showed that the Vpi and Vpf of the Toona ci/iata population were 32.32% and 4.039%, respectively, indicating that Toona ci/iata is a stable growth-oriented population with high risk sensitivity. The survival rate curve was approximately fitted to the Deevey II type, so the individuals in each age class had an equivalent mortality rate in overall. The qx and Kx all reached peaks si- multaneously at 1, 4 and 6 age classes, indicating great effects of physiological properties, environmental sieves and human disturbances on Toona ci/iata population at various growth stages. The spectral analysis showed that the fundamental wave A1 was 0.752 8, while A3 showed an obvious minor cycle deviating from AI. It suggests that there is a periodicity, with minor cycles of multi-harmonic superposition, in natural regeneration of Toona ciliata population.

Population dynamics of marine ciliate Euplotes vannus (Protozoa, Ciliophora) in different artificial seawaters

To study population dynamics of marine ciliates in different artificial seawaters （ASW）, the population growth dynamics of a common marine ciliate Euplotes vannus were investigated using beef extract media and rice media for five types of ASW and natural seawater （NSW）. The results show that： （1） the population growth rate was in the order of NSW〉Flack ASW〉Nakamula ASW〉Schmadz ASW〉Oshima ASW〉Subow ASW and was considerably higher in rice media than in beef extract media （apart from Subow ASW）; （2） the maximum density of E. vannus in stationary phase in each treatment was ranked as Hack ASW〉Nakamula ASW〉Schmadz ASW〉NSW〉Oshima ASW〉Subow ASW, and was again higher in rice media than in beef extract media （except for Subow ASW）; （3） the exponential and stationary phases were longer in rice media than in beef extract media; （4） strains of E. vannus that had been domesticated for 〉1 year in ASW grew significantly slower, with lower maximum density and longer stationary phase than those isolated and maintained in NSW. It was demonstrated that： （1） E. vannus may grow well in Flack, Nakamula and Schmads ASW compared with NSW （mainly in terms of growth rate）; and （2） Oshima ASW is the preferred choice for stock cultures of E. vannus, but the ASWs Flack, Nakamula and Schmadz are preferred for mass culture. These findings suggest that these three ASWs are effective for the cultivation of marine protozoa for experimental studies on ecology, toxicology and molecular biology.

Potential influence of carbohydrate and amino acid intake by adults on the population dynamics of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis(Lepidoptera: Crambidae)

Cnaphalocrocis medinalis is a key lepidopteran pest of rice. However, little is known about the nutritional requirements of the adult or the effects of adult-derived nutrients on reproduction. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effects of carbohydrates and amino acids on the reproductive and demographic parameters of C. medinalis. Different feeding solutions significantly influenced adult survival and reproduction. All the sources of carbohydrates used in the treatments(fructose, glucose, and sucrose) were sufficient to increase adult longevity and fecundity, and benefited the development of ovaries in the adult stage. The positive impact of carbohydrates on lifetime fecundity was due to the prolonged oviposition period and the increased daily fecundity. The intrinsic rate of increase(rm) of C. medinalis increased from 0.103 in waterfed individuals to approximately 0.138 when adults were fed with solutions containing carbohydrates. In contrast, amino acid intake by adult insects exhibited no effect on the longevity, fecundity, ovarian development or population growth, even showing an impact of decreasing longevity of females. As nectar secreted by the flowering plant is generally rich in sugars, the potential effects of nectar on the adults of C. medinalis and other pests have to be considered during the development of biological control by applying flowering plants as a microhabitat and food source for natural enemies in rice fields.

Population dynamics modelling with spatial heterogeneity for yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis)along the coast of China

As one of the top four commercially important species in China,yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis)with two geographic subpopulations,has undergone profound changes during the last several decades.It is widely comprehended that understanding its population dynamics is critically important for sustainable management of this valuable fishery in China.The only two existing population dynamics models assessed the population of yellow croaker using short time-series data,without considering geographical variations.In this study,Bayesian models with and without hierarchical subpopulation structure were developed to explore the spatial heterogeneity of the population dynamics of yellow croaker from 1968 to 2015.Alternative hypotheses were constructed to test potential temporal patterns in yellow croaker’s population dynamics.Substantial variations in population dynamics characteristics among space and time were found through this study.The population growth rate was revealed to increase since the late 1980s,and the catchability increased more than twice from 1981 to 2015.The East China Sea’s subpopulation witnesses faster growth,but suffers from higher fishing pressure than that in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea.The global population and two subpopulations all have high risks of overfishing and being overfished according to the MSY-based reference points in recent years.More conservative management strategies with subpopulation considerations are imperative for the fishery management of yellow croaker in China.The methodology developed in this study could also be applied to the stock assessment and fishery management of other species,especially for those species with large spatial heterogeneity data.

Studies on ecological characteristics variation and population dynamics of four lizardfishes in the southern Taiwan Straits

The ecological characteristics of four lizardfishes, Trachinocephalus myops, Saurida undosquamis, Saurida tumbil and Saurida elongata, were studied from specimens （910 T. myops, 454 S. un-dosquamis, 686 S. tumbil and 744 S. elongata） collected monthly in the southern Taiwan Straits from April 2005 to March 2006. The population dynamics of the four lizardfishes was also discussed by the comparison with the previous studies. All being composed of 7 a classes; the dominant group of T. myops and S. tumbil was 1–2 a, while S. undosquamis and S. elongate were 2–3 a. The total mortality coefficient Z and the fishing mortality F were at high as indicated by the exploitation ratio E（0.5）, and a large number of by-caught juvenile and young fishes showing that the stock of lizardfishes in this area was overexploited and the fishing gear was irrational. Compared with the previous studies, the maximum and mean fork length, body mass and age of the four lizard- fishes declined gradually, the lizardfishes populations were younger in age and smaller in size. The asymptotic fork length L ∞ decreased while increasing growth coefficient k, and age at the inflexion point of mass t r was younger compared with the previous studies. The declining of older ones has moderated the feeding competition and the younger ones grew faster. The larger mortality param-eters Z, M and F have revealed higher fishing pressure. The smaller change of the first mature fork length of female T . myops and the change from K selection pattern to r selection pattern of S. tumbil have indicated a more vulnerable fishery ecosystem in this area. The changes of ecological characteristics and population dynamics may be caused by over-exploitation of demersal fishes such as the lizardfishes, especially a large number of juvenile and young fishes by-catch by the current fishing gears and methods. Therefore, in addition to the traditional fishery management approach such as the minimum length-limit, ecosystem approach to fisheries management （EAF） should be taken to improve the practical marine ecosystem management, including increased fishing intensity of the non-economic species especially the feeding competitors of the lizardfishes and the conservation of the pelagic fishery population in the fisheries ecosystem, in order to restore the fishery population and achieve the sustainable use of the fishery stocks.

OPTIMAL HARVESTING CONTROL PROBLEM FOR LINEAR AGE-DEPENDENT POPULATION DYNAMICS

An optimal harvesting problem for linear age-dependent population dynamics is investigated.By Mazur's Theorem,the existence of solutions of the optimal control problem (OH) is demonstrated.The first order necessary conditions of optimality for problem (OH) is obtained by the conception of normal cone. Finally,under suitable assumptions,the uniqueness of solutions of the optimal control problem (OH) is given.The results extend some known criteria.

Monitoring population dynamics of the migratory Red-crowned Crane (Grus japonensis) at Shuangtaihekou National Nature Reserve,northeastern China,from 1991 to 2012

We studied migratory Red-crowned cranes from 1991-2012 in order to track population dynamics and trends for these cranes over time at Shuangtaihekou,northeastern China.Our results show that the earliest arrival date of the Red-crowned Crane (Grus japonensis) was usually around 1 March in the spring and the latest departure date of the cranes around 8 November.The peak period for the number of cranes observed in the spring was 10-20 March over these 22 years.The staging period in the spring is about 25 days.Comparing the highest number of Red-crowned cranes observed in the spring,the migratory population was around 400 birds in the 1990s,then,increased to over 800 birds in 2000.For a short while,the population maintained itself around 600-800 birds.After that,the population started to decline,until during the most recent years,we observed around 400 birds at peak times of each season.Our results match a similar population change pattern observed in the wintering area for a western population,which has been declining since 2000.There is an urgent need to reinforce protection and management,as well as to maintain and improve the quality of their habitats.

Population dynamics of Piscicola geometra (Hirudinea: Rhynchobdellida) on Oreochromis Niloticus (Cichlidae) cultured in a rainforest fish pond, South Eastern Nigeria

The distribution, abundance and intensity of the annelid worm, Piscicola geometra (leeches) infecting Oreochromis niloticus cultured in a rainforest fish pond, South Eastern Nigeria was studied over a 12 months period. Three hundred fish were examined of which 48.3% were infected. Infection occurred throughout the year, with a peak in February. Female fish had a significantly higher intensity of infection( P < 0.05) than males. There was a clear seasonal periodicity in the degree of infection and the distribution of the parasite exhibited an aggregated or contagious model of dispersion. There was a significant positive correlation between the size of the fish and worm burden.

The Abundance and Population Dynamics of Leptocybe invasa (Hymenoptera:Eulophidae) Galls on Eucalyptus spp.in China

The blue gum chalcid, Leptocybe invasa Fisher ＆ La Salle, invaded China in 2007 and has subsequently caused substantial damage to eucalyptus trees. In the current paper, we investigated the susceptibility of 10 Eucalyptus spp. and Eucahetus dunnii to L. invasa in the field, determined the density of galls as well as the gall volume on these tree species, and monitored the population dynamics of wasps in Hainan and Guangdong provinces of China. The order of susceptibility to L. invasa was Eucalyptus urophyllaxEucalyptus camaldulensis〉E, urophylla （coppices）〉Eucalyptus exserta〉 Eucalyptus grandisxE, urophylla in Hainan, and Eucalyptus propinqua〉Eucalyptus saligna〉E, exserta〉Eucalyptus microcorys〉Eucahetus dunnii〉E, camaldulensis〉Eucalyptus tereticornis〉Eucalyptus robust in Guangdong, China. Although L. invasa generally damages the midribs and petioles of young leaves and the tender bark of twigs of eucalyptus, galls were not observed on leaves of E. microcorys, E. camaldulensis, or E. dunnii. Gall volume significantly differed among the tree species, and gall volume and wasp number were positively correlated. In Dongfang, Hainan Province, the overwintering period of L. invasa emergencing through the year was from the end of December to March of the next year, and the number of population was the greatest on E. urophylla^E, camaldulensis, and the smallest on E. grandis E. urophylla. In Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, L. invasa hardly emerged in winter from December to June of the next year, and the population was the greatest on E. propinqua, and the smallest on E. microcorys.

Effect of UV-B radiation on the population dynamics of the rotifer Brachionus urceus

The effect of UV-B radiation enhancement at experimental doses of 0.00,0.24,0.48,0.72,0.96,and 1.20 kJ/m 2 on the population dynamics of the rotifer Brachionus urceus feeding on the alga Chlorella sp.was studied under controlled laboratory conditions using clonal culture and life-table techniques.The results show that UV-B radiation treatment significantly shortened the survival time of the rotifer （P 0.05）： The longest survival time （336 h） occurred in the control （0.00 kJ/m 2 ） while the shortest （222 h） occurred when exposed to the highest UV-B radiation treatment （1.20 kJ/m 2 ）.The fecundity of the rotifer B.urceus was enhanced by the lower UV-B radiation treatment （0.24 and 0.48 kJ/m 2 ） but inhibited by the higher treatments （0.96 and 1.20 kJ/m 2 ）.Life expectancy also was obviously affected by UV-B radiation （P 0.05）.The highest life expectancy occurred in the control （0.00 kJ/m 2 ）,and it became shorter with increasing doses of UV-B radiation.The resutls in the present study indicate that the life expectancy of the rotifer B.urceus can be used as an indicator for UV-B radiation enhancement.

Population dynamics and condition index of natural stock of blood cockle,Tegillarca granosa(Mollusca,Bivalvia,Arcidae)in the Marudu Bay,Malaysia

The population parameters of blood cockles,Tegillarca granosa in the intertidal zone of Marudu Bay,Sabah,Malaysia were investigated based on monthly length-weight frequency data(July 2017 to June 2018).A total of 279 cockle individuals with shell length and weight ranging from 27.7 mm to 82.2 mm and 13.11 g to 192.7 g were subjected to analysis.T.granosa in Marudu Bay showed a consistent moderately high condition index 4.98±0.86 throughout the year.The exponent b of the length-weight relationship was 2.6 demonstrating negative allometric growth.The estimated asymptotic length(L_(∞)),growth coefficient(K)and growth performance(Ф)of the T.granosa population in Marudu Bay were estimated at 86.68 mm,0.98 a^(-1) and 3.87,respectively.The observed maximum shell length was 82.55 mm and the predicted maximum shell length was 84.44 mm with estimated maximum life span(t_(max))of 3.06 years.The estimated mean lengths at the end of 2,4,6,8,10 and 12 months of age were 21.31 mm,31.16 mm,39.53 mm,46.63 mm,52.67 mm and 57.79 mm.Total,natural,and fishing mortalities were estimated at 2.39 a^(-1),1.32 a^(-1) and 1.07 a^(-1).The exploitation level(E)was 0.45.Results of the current study also demonstrated that T.granosa in the Marudu Bay has two major recruitment peaks;one in March and another in October.The exploitation level revealed that natural stock of T.granosa in the Marudu Bay was approaching the maximum exploitation level.If such trend continues or demand for T.granosa is increasing,coupled with no effective fisheries management in place,possibility of the T.granosa population in the Marudu Bay to collapse is likely to elevate.

Population dynamics of Acartia pacifica (Copepoda:Calanoida):the importance of benthic-pelagic coupling

The seasonal occurrence of Acartia pacifica （ Copepoda： Calanoida） and their resting eggs in the sediment of Xiamen Bay were documented between October 2002 and September 2003. The numher of viable eggs in the sediment increased from January to May with the increase in the numher of planktonic females. When the population ofA. pacifica disappeared from the water cohinm, the number of eggs in the sediment began to decrease and reached a low value due to lack of input. The peak of nauplii abundance occurred when the hatching potential of eggs from the sediment was high under the natural environment from February to June. The hatching of resting eggs of A. pacifica was essentially temperature-dependent after suspension, while photoperied regimes had no significant effect on the hatching. The mean density of subitaneeus eggs was 1. 122 0 g/cm^3 with a standard deviation （SD） of 0. 000 2 g/cm^3. The mean density of diapause eggs was 1. 151 2 g/cm^3 with a SD of 0.000 1 g/cm^3. The sinking rates of subitaneons eggs ranged from 19.55 to 26.17 m/d, while those of diapause eggs ranged from 30.29 to 31.28 m/d. The comparison of the egg deposition time and egg hatching time suggested that in most cases virtually all subitaneous eggs of A. pacifica would settle to the bottom before their hatching even though the eggs have high potential to hatch. The evidence was provided that the seasonal dynamics of A. pacifica is accompanied by benthic-pelagic coupling.

Nonlinear Absorption-Gain Response and Population Dynamics in a Laser-Driven Four-Level Dense Atomic System

We theoretically investigate the response of nonlinear absorption and population dynamics in optically dense media of four-level atoms driven by a single-mode probe laser, via taking the density-dependent near dipoledipole （NDD） interactions into consideration. The influence of the NDD effects on the absorption of the probe field and population dynamics is predicted via numerical calculations. It is shown that the NDD effects can reduce gradually to transient absorption with the increase of the strengths of the NDD interactions, and transient amplification can be achieved. In the steady-state limit, the probe field exhibits transparency for strong NDD interactions. Alternatively, the population entirely remains at the ground state due to the NDD effects.

PREMISE Insect Model： Integrated Population Dynamics Model for the Ex-ante Evaluation of IPM against Insect Pest

Codling moth Cydiapomonella L. is the most serious pest of apple and pear worldwide and causes damage and decreased yields. To minimize this risk, IPM tools can be applied to reduce the use of chemicals. A cost-effective application of IPM depends on the number of insects at the time of application. Several conditions and factors influence the lifecycle and numbers of generations within a year. In order to perform ex-ante evaluations of the cost-effectiveness of IPM measures against pest insects, the generic PREMISE insect model has been developed, which integrates insect＇s population dynamics, the climate and other conditions, applied measures, economics, environment and human health （residues）. This paper describes these components of the PREMISE insect model, and how these components interact to assess the cost-effectiveness of IPM measures and the effects on the environment and human health. Codling moth is used as a case study for this generic model.

Population Dynamic and Biological Characteristics of the Gypsy Moth Lymantria dispar （Lepidoptera： Lymantriidae） in West-Siberian Geographic

Gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar （L.） is one of the most widespread defoliators of deciduous and larch forests in Kazakhstan. Preferred host plants, flying capacity of females and neonate caterpillars, preferred places for egg laying, major factors of mortality and other characteristics vary considerably between different populations of the pest. According to several year researches on gypsy moth, in Kazakhstan, the main biological characteristics of this pest in the regions were investigated. Results of research showed that gypsy moth exists in central and northern of theses regions. From biological and geographical aspects, gypsy moth which there is in Kazakhstan is close to the same species from Siberia western regions. The pest lays on the different heights of trees trunk. It was found that the number of eggs in each egg mass and egg masses laid by the pest are different. The lack of egg eaters and the over- reproduction of the pest at the natural conditions have resulted in the development of bacterial and viral diseases in the populations of this pest from the regions of Kazakhstan to Siberia west.