The Great Bustard(Otis tarda) world population is estimated to be 44100–57000 individuals in 2010,of which about 57–70% occur in Spain,15–25% in European Russia,4–10% in China,Mongolia and south-eastern Russia,3–...The Great Bustard(Otis tarda) world population is estimated to be 44100–57000 individuals in 2010,of which about 57–70% occur in Spain,15–25% in European Russia,4–10% in China,Mongolia and south-eastern Russia,3–4% in Portugal,3% in Hungary,1–2% in Turkey,and smaller numbers in ten other countries.The reliability of current censuses and estimates may be described as high for a large fraction of the world population(67–75%),and low for the remain-ing 25–33%(including Russia,Mongolia,China,Turkey,Ukraine,Iran and Kazakhstan).In spite of continued declines reported for some countries(e.g.,Turkey,Iran,China) ,the present survey suggests that total numbers have not significantly decreased worldwide during the last decade,as opposed to the globally declining trend currently assumed.This is due to a large fraction of the world total living in countries whose overall surveys are apparently stable(e.g.,Spain,Portugal),after a noticeable recovery during the last few decades once the hunting ban was established.Only 6–10% of the world total is apparently still decreasing,mostly due to agricultural intensification,other causes of habitat degradation,and locally,also illegal hunting and collision with power lines.A small fraction of the world population(3–4%),is clearly(Germany,Austria) or apparently(Hungary) increasing,due to management and conservation measures.Finally,19–22% of the world total has an uncertain status,due to inaccurate current or past censuses which prevent establishing reliable population trends.We recommend 1)keeping conservation efforts and the species’protection status worldwide,and 2)carrying out urgently nation-wide surveys in countries with low quality estimates,in order to confirm world numbers and trends.展开更多
Decelerating open-channel flow is a type of flow that gradually moves forward with decreasing velocity and increasing water depth.Although all flow parameters change along the streamwise direction,previous studies hav...Decelerating open-channel flow is a type of flow that gradually moves forward with decreasing velocity and increasing water depth.Although all flow parameters change along the streamwise direction,previous studies have revealed that these parameters’vertical distributions at different sections can be universally described with a single profile when being nondimensionalised by appropriate scales.This study focuses on the population trends of spanwise rotational motions at various sections along the main flow direction by particle imaging velocimetry(PIV)measurement.The wall-normal population distributions of density,radius,swirling strength,and convection velocity of the prograde and retrograde motions show similar trends in uniform open-channel flows.The dimensionless representation is invariant along the main flow direction.This study’s results indicate the self-similar characteristic of population trends of spanwise rotational motions prevails in decelerating open-channel flow.展开更多
Background: China is one of the countries with abundant waterbird diversity. Over the past decades, China's waterbirds have suffered increasing threats from direct and indirect human activities. It is important to...Background: China is one of the countries with abundant waterbird diversity. Over the past decades, China's waterbirds have suffered increasing threats from direct and indirect human activities. It is important to clarify the population trends of and threats to waterbirds as well as to put forward conservation recommendations.Methods: We collected data of population trends of a total of 260 waterbird species in China from Wetlands International database. We calculated the number of species with increasing, declining, stable, and unknown trends. We collected threatened levels of waterbirds from the Red List of China's Vertebrates(2016), which was compiled according to the IUCN criteria of threatened species. Based on literature review, we refined the major threats to the threatened waterbird species in China.Results: Of the total 260 waterbird species in China, 84 species(32.3%) exhibited declining, 35 species(13.5%) kept stable, and 16 species(6.2%) showed increasing trends. Population trends were unknown for 125 species(48.1%). There was no significant difference in population trends between the migratory(32.4% decline) and resident(31.8% decline) species or among waterbirds distributed exclusively along coasts(28.6% decline), inland(36.6% decline), and both coasts and inland(32.5% decline). A total of 38 species(15.1% of the total) were listed as threatened species and 27 species(10.8% of the total) Near Threatened species. Habitat loss was the major threat to waterbirds, with 32 of the total 38(84.2%) threatened species being affected. In addition, 73.7%(28 species), 71.1%(27 species), and 57.9%(22 species) of the threatened species were affected by human disturbance, environmental pollution, and illegal hunting, respectively.Conclusions: We propose recommendations for waterbird conservation, including(1) strengthening conservation of nature wetlands and restoration of degraded wetlands,(2) enhancing public awareness on waterbird conservation,(3) improving the enforcement of Wildlife Protection Law and cracking down on illegal hunting,(4) carrying out longterm waterbird surveys to clarify population dynamics,(5) restoring populations of highly-threatened species through artificial intervention, and(6) promoting international and regional exchanges and cooperation to share information in waterbirds and their conservation.展开更多
In this work,we report long-term trends in the abundance and breeding performance of Adélie penguins(Pygoscelis adeliae)nesting in three Antarctic colonies(i.e.,at Martin Point,South Orkneys Islands;Stranger Poin...In this work,we report long-term trends in the abundance and breeding performance of Adélie penguins(Pygoscelis adeliae)nesting in three Antarctic colonies(i.e.,at Martin Point,South Orkneys Islands;Stranger Point/Cabo Funes,South Shetland Islands;and Esperanza/Hope Bay in the Antarctic Peninsula)from 1995/96 to 2022/23.Using yearly count data of breeding groups selected,we observed a decline in the number of breeding pairs and chicks in crèche at all colonies studied.However,the magnitude of change was higher at Stranger Point than that in the remaining colonies.Moreover,the index of breeding success,which was calculated as the ratio of chicks in crèche to breeding pairs,exhibited no apparent trend throughout the study period.However,it displayed greater variability at Martin Point compared to the other two colonies under investigation.Although the number of chicks in crèche of Adélie penguins showed a declining pattern,the average breeding performance was similar to that reported in gentoo penguin colonies,specifically,those undergoing a population increase(even in sympatric colonies facing similar local conditions).Consequently,it is plausible to assume a reduction of the over-winter survival as a likely cause of the declining trend observed,at least in the Stranger Point and Esperanza colonies.However,we cannot rule out local effects during the breeding season affecting the Adélie population of Martin Point.展开更多
We examined the population status, trend and distribution of Gerenuk, Fringe-eared Oryx and Lesser kudu in the Northern Tanzania and Southern Kenya borderland after the 2007 to 2009 drought. The species were character...We examined the population status, trend and distribution of Gerenuk, Fringe-eared Oryx and Lesser kudu in the Northern Tanzania and Southern Kenya borderland after the 2007 to 2009 drought. The species were characterized by low numbers and sparsely distributed in the borderland but were more prevalent and abundant in the Amboseli region. However, West Kilimanjaro had the highest positive change in density between 2010 and 2013 [Gerenuk = +1650.48 ± 1150.31, lesser kudu = +912.78 ± 487.63 and Fringe-eared Oryx = +366.65 ± 233.32]. Changes in density and composition varied seasonally among the different sectors of the borderland, with Gerenuk having the highest change in the Amboseli area during the wet season. Lesser kudu had the highest change in Amboseli and Kilimanjaro during the wet season while Fringe-eared Oryx had the highest change in the wet season in West Kilimanjaro area. Spatial distribution of the species varied seasonally and across different sectors of the borderland. In the dry season, Gerenuk exhibited a clumped distribution mainly in Amboseli National Park, and between Natron and West Kilimanjaro but in the wet season, it spread out more though higher concentrations were still found Amboseli and West Kilimanjaro. Lesser concentrated in mostly in West Kilimanjaro and Amboseli during the dry season but was widely dispersed during the wet season. Similarly, during the dry season, the Fringe-eared Oryx was confined in the Amboseli and West Kilimanjaro areas but during the wet season, it much more spread out with clusters in the Mbirikani area of the Amboseli region and a few places in Magadi, Natron and West Kilimanjaro. Management implications of the findings obtained in this study area here-in discussed.展开更多
The Maasai ostrich (Struthio camelus) is a the largest avian species in East Africa and though it’s not considered to be a species of conservation concern, some populations are on the decline and this is attributed t...The Maasai ostrich (Struthio camelus) is a the largest avian species in East Africa and though it’s not considered to be a species of conservation concern, some populations are on the decline and this is attributed to bush meat activities, predation on their eggs illegal consumption by humans, habitat destruction and forage competition with other large wildlife species. Climate change is also emerging to be another major threat due to interference with food availability which in turn interferes with the breeding rhythm. Thus, this study examined the population status, trend and distribution of the Maasai ostrich in the Southern Kenya and Northern Tanzania borderland after the 2007 to 2009 drought. The results showed that the species was found across the entire borderland but the Amboseli region had the highest number and density of Maasai ostrich (726.00 ± 100.9;0.08 ± 0.01 ostriches per km<sup>2</sup>), followed by Lake Natron area (330.8 ± 69.8;0.05 ± 0.01 ostriches per km<sup>2</sup>) and the least was in West Kilimanjaro (85.5 ± 18.0;0.03 ± 0.01 ostriches per km<sup>2</sup>). Drought caused a decline in the population of the Maasai ostrich but the Amboseli area experienced the highest decline in density (?13.44 ± 12.61) compared to other borderland sectors. However, the populations increased in most sectors after the drought, and wet season numbers and densities were higher than the dry season. The highest positive increase in number and density was in Lake Natron area (+85.65 ± 91.06) followed by West Kilimanjaro (+68.39 ± 59.54), and the least was in the Magadi area (+22.26 ± 32.05). There is a need to enhance conservation of avian species like the Maasai ostrich other than just focusing on the charismatic species such as the African elephant and black rhino. We therefore recommend joint collaboration in monitoring all large wildlife populations across the Kenya-Tanzania borderland with a view of understanding their status, trend and best management actions that can enhance their conservation.展开更多
Jankowski’s Bunting (Emberiza jankowskii) is a small bird with narrow distribution ranges. It has experienced a drastic population decline during recent years and vanished from most of its historic breeding sites. It...Jankowski’s Bunting (Emberiza jankowskii) is a small bird with narrow distribution ranges. It has experienced a drastic population decline during recent years and vanished from most of its historic breeding sites. It has been recently up-graded as Endangered in the IUCN Red List of globally threatened species. By integrating unpublished data of field surveys conducted by us and published information on the species, we provide information on the status of distribution, breeding biology of the remaining population at the Dagang Forest Farm, population trends at currently known breeding sites, selection of breeding habitats and threats faced by the Jankowski’s Bunting. In light of its current status we also suggest ways and future research work related to protecting this bird species.展开更多
Background:Land use and development alter mudflat and wetland habitat availability,although mudflats and wetlands provide important stopover habitats for shorebirds during the spring and autumn migrations and support ...Background:Land use and development alter mudflat and wetland habitat availability,although mudflats and wetlands provide important stopover habitats for shorebirds during the spring and autumn migrations and support communities of ducks and geese during the winter months in the Republic of Korea.This study investigated land use changes around Sihwa Lake(Republic of Korea)and evaluated the effect of these changes on waterbird community characteristics.Methods:We conducted a land-use-change analysis at the medium-resolution level using land cover maps for 2001,2007,2009,and 2014.Also,a tidal stream survey was conducted in Sihwa Lake and the surrounding reclaimed mudflats every season for 10 years(2003-2012)to identify the seasonal and interannual variations in waterbird species composition.To determine the total annual waterbird species and population counts,species diversity index,and interspecies variations,a TRIM(trends and indices for monitoring data)analysis was used.Results:Wetland area decreased more than 10%while agricultural land,barren land,and grassland area increased more than 10%due to continuous reclamation activities around Sihwa Lake.Barren land later turned into agricultural land or other land use.Sixty-three species and 566,623 individuals were recorded.The number of species,population size,and species diversity index by year and by species showed decreasing trends that were more marked in spring and summer.Furthermore,seasonal and annual variations in waterbird species composition showed decreasing trends in dabbling ducks,herons,grebes,and shorebirds but diving ducks displayed increasing trends.In particular,shorebirds were reduced to a greater extent than other waterbird species because of the reduction and simplification of the intertidal zone,and shallow waters caused by reclamation and road construction.Conclusions:Increased development and construction around Sihwa Lake has altered migratory shorebird populations with a general decline in species diversity and population size.The greatest decline was observed in wading birds,while diving duck populations showed increasing trends.展开更多
The universal two-child policy,implemented in October,2015,is considered to be the most significant adjustment in the history of China's family planning program.Using data from the 2014 national population samplin...The universal two-child policy,implemented in October,2015,is considered to be the most significant adjustment in the history of China's family planning program.Using data from the 2014 national population sampling survey,this paper employs a population group-component calculation and projection method to compute the number of target population in 2016 and then to estimate the number of extra births that are likely to result from implementation of the universal two-child policy.The results show that the total number of extra births is estimated to be approximately 17.2 million in the years 2017-2021,with the number of extra births per year ranging from approximately 1.6 to 4.7 million.This will lead to a dramatic shift in China's TFR from an estimated 1.6 in 2016 to one approaching the replacement level,and then dropping to a projected 1.7.With the universal two-child policy in place,China's total population will grow to about 1.45 billion around 2028 and then gradually begin shrioking.The labor force will become larger under the universal two-child policy than it would if the stricter birth control policy were maintained,with an estimated 50 million additional people aged 15-59 in 2050.With implementation of China's new fertility policy,an estimated 34%of the population will be over 60 years of age in 2050,almost three percentage points lower than the level if the former fertility policy were continued.展开更多
Taking a published natural population life table of rice leaf roller, Cnaphalocrocis medinalis （Lepidoptera： Pyralidae）, as an example, we estimated the population trend index, I, via re-sampling methods （jackknif...Taking a published natural population life table of rice leaf roller, Cnaphalocrocis medinalis （Lepidoptera： Pyralidae）, as an example, we estimated the population trend index, I, via re-sampling methods （jackknife and bootstrap）, determined its statistical properties and illustrated the application of these methods in determining the control effectiveness of bio- agents and chemical insecticides. Depending on the simulation outputs, the smoothed distribution pattern of the estimates of I by delete-1 jackknife is visually distinguishable from the normal density, but the smoothed pattern produced by delete-d jackknife, and logarithm- transformed smoothed patterns produced by both empirical and parametric bootstraps, matched well the corresponding normal density. Thus, the estimates of I produced by delete-1 jackknife were not used to determine the suppressive effect of wasps and insecticides. The 95% percent confidence intervals or the narrowest 95 percentiles and Z-test criterion were employed to compare the effectiveness of Trichogrammajaponicum Ashmead and insecticides （powder, 1.5% mevinphos ＋ 3% alpha-hexachloro cyclohexane） against the rice leaf roller based on the estimates of I produced by delete-d jackknife and bootstrap techniques. At a = 0.05 level, there were statistical differences between wasp treatment and control, and between wasp and insecticide treatments, if the normality is ensured, or by the narrowest 95 percentiles. However, there is still no difference between insecticide treatment and control. By Z-test criterion, wasp treatment is better than control and insecticide treatment with P-value 〈 0.01. Insecticide treatment is similar to control with P-value 〉 0.2 indicating that 95% confidence intervals procedure is more conservative. Although similar conclusions may be drawn by re-sampling techniques, such as the delta method, about the suppressive effect of trichogramma and insecticides, the normality of the estimates can be checked and guaranteed, and the correlation among sequential life stages of rice leaf roller is also considered in the estimation. Judged by the P-values from Z-test, the delta method is more conservative.展开更多
A new Vary in Distance Leslie Matrix is adopted to process the observed data of a giant panda population’s development trend dynamics with unequal distance age groups. Results show that this new method adopted is mu...A new Vary in Distance Leslie Matrix is adopted to process the observed data of a giant panda population’s development trend dynamics with unequal distance age groups. Results show that this new method adopted is much simpler than the usual lesile Matrix analysis, and no need of deviding the pandas into equal distance age groups and no so many asumptions are needed as in the usual Leslie Methods. We only changed the meaning of some elements in Leslie Matrix and processed the developmental trend of panda population in Wolong Wu Yi Peng successfully we also carried out a sensitivity analysis of many parameters as well as the computer simulation.展开更多
基金provided by project CGL2008-02567 of the Dirección General de Investigación
文摘The Great Bustard(Otis tarda) world population is estimated to be 44100–57000 individuals in 2010,of which about 57–70% occur in Spain,15–25% in European Russia,4–10% in China,Mongolia and south-eastern Russia,3–4% in Portugal,3% in Hungary,1–2% in Turkey,and smaller numbers in ten other countries.The reliability of current censuses and estimates may be described as high for a large fraction of the world population(67–75%),and low for the remain-ing 25–33%(including Russia,Mongolia,China,Turkey,Ukraine,Iran and Kazakhstan).In spite of continued declines reported for some countries(e.g.,Turkey,Iran,China) ,the present survey suggests that total numbers have not significantly decreased worldwide during the last decade,as opposed to the globally declining trend currently assumed.This is due to a large fraction of the world total living in countries whose overall surveys are apparently stable(e.g.,Spain,Portugal),after a noticeable recovery during the last few decades once the hunting ban was established.Only 6–10% of the world total is apparently still decreasing,mostly due to agricultural intensification,other causes of habitat degradation,and locally,also illegal hunting and collision with power lines.A small fraction of the world population(3–4%),is clearly(Germany,Austria) or apparently(Hungary) increasing,due to management and conservation measures.Finally,19–22% of the world total has an uncertain status,due to inaccurate current or past censuses which prevent establishing reliable population trends.We recommend 1)keeping conservation efforts and the species’protection status worldwide,and 2)carrying out urgently nation-wide surveys in countries with low quality estimates,in order to confirm world numbers and trends.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51679020)the Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission(Grant No.KJQN202100731).
文摘Decelerating open-channel flow is a type of flow that gradually moves forward with decreasing velocity and increasing water depth.Although all flow parameters change along the streamwise direction,previous studies have revealed that these parameters’vertical distributions at different sections can be universally described with a single profile when being nondimensionalised by appropriate scales.This study focuses on the population trends of spanwise rotational motions at various sections along the main flow direction by particle imaging velocimetry(PIV)measurement.The wall-normal population distributions of density,radius,swirling strength,and convection velocity of the prograde and retrograde motions show similar trends in uniform open-channel flows.The dimensionless representation is invariant along the main flow direction.This study’s results indicate the self-similar characteristic of population trends of spanwise rotational motions prevails in decelerating open-channel flow.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.31572280 and 31071939)
文摘Background: China is one of the countries with abundant waterbird diversity. Over the past decades, China's waterbirds have suffered increasing threats from direct and indirect human activities. It is important to clarify the population trends of and threats to waterbirds as well as to put forward conservation recommendations.Methods: We collected data of population trends of a total of 260 waterbird species in China from Wetlands International database. We calculated the number of species with increasing, declining, stable, and unknown trends. We collected threatened levels of waterbirds from the Red List of China's Vertebrates(2016), which was compiled according to the IUCN criteria of threatened species. Based on literature review, we refined the major threats to the threatened waterbird species in China.Results: Of the total 260 waterbird species in China, 84 species(32.3%) exhibited declining, 35 species(13.5%) kept stable, and 16 species(6.2%) showed increasing trends. Population trends were unknown for 125 species(48.1%). There was no significant difference in population trends between the migratory(32.4% decline) and resident(31.8% decline) species or among waterbirds distributed exclusively along coasts(28.6% decline), inland(36.6% decline), and both coasts and inland(32.5% decline). A total of 38 species(15.1% of the total) were listed as threatened species and 27 species(10.8% of the total) Near Threatened species. Habitat loss was the major threat to waterbirds, with 32 of the total 38(84.2%) threatened species being affected. In addition, 73.7%(28 species), 71.1%(27 species), and 57.9%(22 species) of the threatened species were affected by human disturbance, environmental pollution, and illegal hunting, respectively.Conclusions: We propose recommendations for waterbird conservation, including(1) strengthening conservation of nature wetlands and restoration of degraded wetlands,(2) enhancing public awareness on waterbird conservation,(3) improving the enforcement of Wildlife Protection Law and cracking down on illegal hunting,(4) carrying out longterm waterbird surveys to clarify population dynamics,(5) restoring populations of highly-threatened species through artificial intervention, and(6) promoting international and regional exchanges and cooperation to share information in waterbirds and their conservation.
基金Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica(Grant:PICTO 2010-0111)the Instituto Antártico Argentino-Dirección Nacional del Antártico(PINST-05)provided financial and logistical support.
文摘In this work,we report long-term trends in the abundance and breeding performance of Adélie penguins(Pygoscelis adeliae)nesting in three Antarctic colonies(i.e.,at Martin Point,South Orkneys Islands;Stranger Point/Cabo Funes,South Shetland Islands;and Esperanza/Hope Bay in the Antarctic Peninsula)from 1995/96 to 2022/23.Using yearly count data of breeding groups selected,we observed a decline in the number of breeding pairs and chicks in crèche at all colonies studied.However,the magnitude of change was higher at Stranger Point than that in the remaining colonies.Moreover,the index of breeding success,which was calculated as the ratio of chicks in crèche to breeding pairs,exhibited no apparent trend throughout the study period.However,it displayed greater variability at Martin Point compared to the other two colonies under investigation.Although the number of chicks in crèche of Adélie penguins showed a declining pattern,the average breeding performance was similar to that reported in gentoo penguin colonies,specifically,those undergoing a population increase(even in sympatric colonies facing similar local conditions).Consequently,it is plausible to assume a reduction of the over-winter survival as a likely cause of the declining trend observed,at least in the Stranger Point and Esperanza colonies.However,we cannot rule out local effects during the breeding season affecting the Adélie population of Martin Point.
文摘We examined the population status, trend and distribution of Gerenuk, Fringe-eared Oryx and Lesser kudu in the Northern Tanzania and Southern Kenya borderland after the 2007 to 2009 drought. The species were characterized by low numbers and sparsely distributed in the borderland but were more prevalent and abundant in the Amboseli region. However, West Kilimanjaro had the highest positive change in density between 2010 and 2013 [Gerenuk = +1650.48 ± 1150.31, lesser kudu = +912.78 ± 487.63 and Fringe-eared Oryx = +366.65 ± 233.32]. Changes in density and composition varied seasonally among the different sectors of the borderland, with Gerenuk having the highest change in the Amboseli area during the wet season. Lesser kudu had the highest change in Amboseli and Kilimanjaro during the wet season while Fringe-eared Oryx had the highest change in the wet season in West Kilimanjaro area. Spatial distribution of the species varied seasonally and across different sectors of the borderland. In the dry season, Gerenuk exhibited a clumped distribution mainly in Amboseli National Park, and between Natron and West Kilimanjaro but in the wet season, it spread out more though higher concentrations were still found Amboseli and West Kilimanjaro. Lesser concentrated in mostly in West Kilimanjaro and Amboseli during the dry season but was widely dispersed during the wet season. Similarly, during the dry season, the Fringe-eared Oryx was confined in the Amboseli and West Kilimanjaro areas but during the wet season, it much more spread out with clusters in the Mbirikani area of the Amboseli region and a few places in Magadi, Natron and West Kilimanjaro. Management implications of the findings obtained in this study area here-in discussed.
文摘The Maasai ostrich (Struthio camelus) is a the largest avian species in East Africa and though it’s not considered to be a species of conservation concern, some populations are on the decline and this is attributed to bush meat activities, predation on their eggs illegal consumption by humans, habitat destruction and forage competition with other large wildlife species. Climate change is also emerging to be another major threat due to interference with food availability which in turn interferes with the breeding rhythm. Thus, this study examined the population status, trend and distribution of the Maasai ostrich in the Southern Kenya and Northern Tanzania borderland after the 2007 to 2009 drought. The results showed that the species was found across the entire borderland but the Amboseli region had the highest number and density of Maasai ostrich (726.00 ± 100.9;0.08 ± 0.01 ostriches per km<sup>2</sup>), followed by Lake Natron area (330.8 ± 69.8;0.05 ± 0.01 ostriches per km<sup>2</sup>) and the least was in West Kilimanjaro (85.5 ± 18.0;0.03 ± 0.01 ostriches per km<sup>2</sup>). Drought caused a decline in the population of the Maasai ostrich but the Amboseli area experienced the highest decline in density (?13.44 ± 12.61) compared to other borderland sectors. However, the populations increased in most sectors after the drought, and wet season numbers and densities were higher than the dry season. The highest positive increase in number and density was in Lake Natron area (+85.65 ± 91.06) followed by West Kilimanjaro (+68.39 ± 59.54), and the least was in the Magadi area (+22.26 ± 32.05). There is a need to enhance conservation of avian species like the Maasai ostrich other than just focusing on the charismatic species such as the African elephant and black rhino. We therefore recommend joint collaboration in monitoring all large wildlife populations across the Kenya-Tanzania borderland with a view of understanding their status, trend and best management actions that can enhance their conservation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 30370183, 39870117)
文摘Jankowski’s Bunting (Emberiza jankowskii) is a small bird with narrow distribution ranges. It has experienced a drastic population decline during recent years and vanished from most of its historic breeding sites. It has been recently up-graded as Endangered in the IUCN Red List of globally threatened species. By integrating unpublished data of field surveys conducted by us and published information on the species, we provide information on the status of distribution, breeding biology of the remaining population at the Dagang Forest Farm, population trends at currently known breeding sites, selection of breeding habitats and threats faced by the Jankowski’s Bunting. In light of its current status we also suggest ways and future research work related to protecting this bird species.
基金This was supported by 2020 Yeungnam University Research Grant.
文摘Background:Land use and development alter mudflat and wetland habitat availability,although mudflats and wetlands provide important stopover habitats for shorebirds during the spring and autumn migrations and support communities of ducks and geese during the winter months in the Republic of Korea.This study investigated land use changes around Sihwa Lake(Republic of Korea)and evaluated the effect of these changes on waterbird community characteristics.Methods:We conducted a land-use-change analysis at the medium-resolution level using land cover maps for 2001,2007,2009,and 2014.Also,a tidal stream survey was conducted in Sihwa Lake and the surrounding reclaimed mudflats every season for 10 years(2003-2012)to identify the seasonal and interannual variations in waterbird species composition.To determine the total annual waterbird species and population counts,species diversity index,and interspecies variations,a TRIM(trends and indices for monitoring data)analysis was used.Results:Wetland area decreased more than 10%while agricultural land,barren land,and grassland area increased more than 10%due to continuous reclamation activities around Sihwa Lake.Barren land later turned into agricultural land or other land use.Sixty-three species and 566,623 individuals were recorded.The number of species,population size,and species diversity index by year and by species showed decreasing trends that were more marked in spring and summer.Furthermore,seasonal and annual variations in waterbird species composition showed decreasing trends in dabbling ducks,herons,grebes,and shorebirds but diving ducks displayed increasing trends.In particular,shorebirds were reduced to a greater extent than other waterbird species because of the reduction and simplification of the intertidal zone,and shallow waters caused by reclamation and road construction.Conclusions:Increased development and construction around Sihwa Lake has altered migratory shorebird populations with a general decline in species diversity and population size.The greatest decline was observed in wading birds,while diving duck populations showed increasing trends.
基金funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China(7WXJ731).
文摘The universal two-child policy,implemented in October,2015,is considered to be the most significant adjustment in the history of China's family planning program.Using data from the 2014 national population sampling survey,this paper employs a population group-component calculation and projection method to compute the number of target population in 2016 and then to estimate the number of extra births that are likely to result from implementation of the universal two-child policy.The results show that the total number of extra births is estimated to be approximately 17.2 million in the years 2017-2021,with the number of extra births per year ranging from approximately 1.6 to 4.7 million.This will lead to a dramatic shift in China's TFR from an estimated 1.6 in 2016 to one approaching the replacement level,and then dropping to a projected 1.7.With the universal two-child policy in place,China's total population will grow to about 1.45 billion around 2028 and then gradually begin shrioking.The labor force will become larger under the universal two-child policy than it would if the stricter birth control policy were maintained,with an estimated 50 million additional people aged 15-59 in 2050.With implementation of China's new fertility policy,an estimated 34%of the population will be over 60 years of age in 2050,almost three percentage points lower than the level if the former fertility policy were continued.
文摘Taking a published natural population life table of rice leaf roller, Cnaphalocrocis medinalis （Lepidoptera： Pyralidae）, as an example, we estimated the population trend index, I, via re-sampling methods （jackknife and bootstrap）, determined its statistical properties and illustrated the application of these methods in determining the control effectiveness of bio- agents and chemical insecticides. Depending on the simulation outputs, the smoothed distribution pattern of the estimates of I by delete-1 jackknife is visually distinguishable from the normal density, but the smoothed pattern produced by delete-d jackknife, and logarithm- transformed smoothed patterns produced by both empirical and parametric bootstraps, matched well the corresponding normal density. Thus, the estimates of I produced by delete-1 jackknife were not used to determine the suppressive effect of wasps and insecticides. The 95% percent confidence intervals or the narrowest 95 percentiles and Z-test criterion were employed to compare the effectiveness of Trichogrammajaponicum Ashmead and insecticides （powder, 1.5% mevinphos ＋ 3% alpha-hexachloro cyclohexane） against the rice leaf roller based on the estimates of I produced by delete-d jackknife and bootstrap techniques. At a = 0.05 level, there were statistical differences between wasp treatment and control, and between wasp and insecticide treatments, if the normality is ensured, or by the narrowest 95 percentiles. However, there is still no difference between insecticide treatment and control. By Z-test criterion, wasp treatment is better than control and insecticide treatment with P-value 〈 0.01. Insecticide treatment is similar to control with P-value 〉 0.2 indicating that 95% confidence intervals procedure is more conservative. Although similar conclusions may be drawn by re-sampling techniques, such as the delta method, about the suppressive effect of trichogramma and insecticides, the normality of the estimates can be checked and guaranteed, and the correlation among sequential life stages of rice leaf roller is also considered in the estimation. Judged by the P-values from Z-test, the delta method is more conservative.
文摘A new Vary in Distance Leslie Matrix is adopted to process the observed data of a giant panda population’s development trend dynamics with unequal distance age groups. Results show that this new method adopted is much simpler than the usual lesile Matrix analysis, and no need of deviding the pandas into equal distance age groups and no so many asumptions are needed as in the usual Leslie Methods. We only changed the meaning of some elements in Leslie Matrix and processed the developmental trend of panda population in Wolong Wu Yi Peng successfully we also carried out a sensitivity analysis of many parameters as well as the computer simulation.
