The paper aims to conduct a comprehensive analysis of theoretical model and practice on the pork supply chain of China from the perspective of logical consistency while laying emphasis on the nodes of pork supply chai...The paper aims to conduct a comprehensive analysis of theoretical model and practice on the pork supply chain of China from the perspective of logical consistency while laying emphasis on the nodes of pork supply chain and the value distribution of value chain. First of all,analyze the conceptual model of pork supply chain in China and further characterize each node of the supply chain as well as the link between the nodes. By comparing with the pork supply chain in Vietnam,analyze the characteristics and existing problems of the pork supply in China.Finally,give advice and suggestions from the aspects of supply chain process reengineering,food quality supervision and the policies & regulations etc.展开更多
Based on the perspective of pig population system prediction,and accorded to principle of pig months transfer,this paper refers to the modeling principle and method of discrete population quantity prediction model.The...Based on the perspective of pig population system prediction,and accorded to principle of pig months transfer,this paper refers to the modeling principle and method of discrete population quantity prediction model.Then the prediction model of pork supply is derived and established:Firstly,the recursive model of pig population system and estimation model of pork supply was established.Then this study estimated the sum of monthly mortality and culling rate of breeding sows.Furthermore,the method for new left gilts in each month and estimation of breeding sows at each month of age was established.Last,this research established the estimation method model of the initial state of pig population.On this basis,an example calculation is made to predict the monthly pork supply in Heilongjiang Province from January 2016 to March 2018 in the future.The results showed that the prediction model of pork supply based on the prediction of pig population system is an effective perspective to study the forecast of pork supply.In the prediction stage,the prediction accuracy of the number of slaughtered fattened hogs was 96.36%and 97.54%,and the prediction accuracy of pork supply was 98.08%and 93.82%.This study not only lay a theoretical foundation for further study on the balance between pork supply and demand,but also helps to guide pork producers and governments at all levels to make relevant production decisions and plans.展开更多
基金Supported by the Fund Project for Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education(12YJC630050)Soft Science Bidding Project of the Ministry of Agriculture(20140203)+4 种基金Soft Science Fund Project of Jiangxi Province(20141BBA10065)the Science and Technology Project of the Education Department of Jiangxi Province(GJJ13727)Project of National Natural Science Foundationthe National Natural Science Funds(71462020)Humanities and Social Science Fund Project of Jiangxi Province(14GL06)
文摘The paper aims to conduct a comprehensive analysis of theoretical model and practice on the pork supply chain of China from the perspective of logical consistency while laying emphasis on the nodes of pork supply chain and the value distribution of value chain. First of all,analyze the conceptual model of pork supply chain in China and further characterize each node of the supply chain as well as the link between the nodes. By comparing with the pork supply chain in Vietnam,analyze the characteristics and existing problems of the pork supply in China.Finally,give advice and suggestions from the aspects of supply chain process reengineering,food quality supervision and the policies & regulations etc.
基金This research was supported by Heilongjiang Province Philosophy and Social Science Research Planning Project(18GLC205)(17GYB084)Heilongjiang Province Doctors Back Project(LBH-Z18024)Northeast Agricultural University Youth Talent Research Fund(18QC18).
文摘Based on the perspective of pig population system prediction,and accorded to principle of pig months transfer,this paper refers to the modeling principle and method of discrete population quantity prediction model.Then the prediction model of pork supply is derived and established:Firstly,the recursive model of pig population system and estimation model of pork supply was established.Then this study estimated the sum of monthly mortality and culling rate of breeding sows.Furthermore,the method for new left gilts in each month and estimation of breeding sows at each month of age was established.Last,this research established the estimation method model of the initial state of pig population.On this basis,an example calculation is made to predict the monthly pork supply in Heilongjiang Province from January 2016 to March 2018 in the future.The results showed that the prediction model of pork supply based on the prediction of pig population system is an effective perspective to study the forecast of pork supply.In the prediction stage,the prediction accuracy of the number of slaughtered fattened hogs was 96.36%and 97.54%,and the prediction accuracy of pork supply was 98.08%and 93.82%.This study not only lay a theoretical foundation for further study on the balance between pork supply and demand,but also helps to guide pork producers and governments at all levels to make relevant production decisions and plans.
