Dependence of Lower Molding Temperature Limit and Molding Time on Molding Mechanism in Dental Thermoforming

Effectiveness and safety of a sports mouthguard depend on its thickness and material, and the thermoforming process affects these. The purpose of this study was to clarify the effects of differences in molding mechanisms on the lower molding temperature limit and molding time in dental thermoforming. Ethylene vinyl acetate resin mouthguard sheet and two thermoforming machines;vacuum blower molding machine and vacuum ejector/pressure molding machine were used. The molding pressures for suction molding were −0.018 MPa for vacuum blower molding and −0.090 MPa for vacuum ejector molding, and for pressure molding was set to 0.090 MPa or 0.450 MPa. Based on the manufacturer’s standard molding temperature of 95˚C, the molding temperature was lowered in 2.5˚C increments to determine the lower molding temperature limit at which no molding defects occurred. In order to investigate the difference in molding time depending on the molding mechanism, the duration of molding pressure was adjusted in each molding machine, and the molding time required to obtain a sample without molding defects was measured. The molding time of each molding machine were compared using one-way analysis of variance. The lower molding temperature limit was 90.0˚C for the vacuum blower machine, 77.5˚C for the vacuum ejector machine, 77.5˚C for the pressure molding machine at 0.090 MPa, and 67.5˚C for the pressure molding machine at 0.45 MPa. The lower molding temperature limit was higher for lower absolute values of molding pressure. The molding time was shorter for pressure molding than for suction molding. Significant differences were observed between all conditions except between the pressure molding machine at 0.090 MPa and 0.45 MPa (P < 0.01). A comparison of the differences in lower molding temperature limit and molding time due to molding mechanisms in dental thermoforming revealed that the lower molding temperature limit depends on the molding pressure and that the molding time is longer for suction molding than for pressure molding.

The relationship between dolomite textures and their formation temperature: a case study from the Permian-Triassic of the Sichuan Basin and the Lower Paleozoic of the Tarim Basin

Study of dolomite texture can contribute to understanding the process of dolomitization.This research reports textures and homogenization temperatures of dolomites from the Permian-Triassic strata in the Sichuan Basin and the Lower Paleozoic strata in the Tarim Basin,which provided insights into relationships between dolomite textures and their formation temperatures.Our results are summarized as follows：1） dolomites with well-preserved texture indicate low dolomitization temperature.However,in certain diagenetic environments,the hydrothermal dolomitization may completely or partially preserve the original texture of dolomites.2） The formation temperatures of non-planar dolomites are always higher than those of planar dolomites.3） The formation temperatures of dolomite cements are generally higher than those of replacive dolomites.4） Although the formation temperatures of saddle dolomite cements have a wide range,they show higher values than those of the planar subhedral to euhedral dolomite cements.Thus,saddle dolomites could generally be an indicator of high precipitation temperature.5） The fluid Mg/Ca ratio is another element controlling dolomite morphology.Micritic dolomites,which precipitate from hypersaline fluids with a high Mg/Ca ratio in a subaerial environment could also have features of non-planar anhedral crystal shape because of rapid nucleation and crystallization during dolomitization.

Analysis of Low-level Temperature Inversions and Their Effects on Aerosols in the Lower Atmosphere

High-quality and continuous radiosonde, aerosol and surface meteorology datasets are used to investigate the statistical characteristics of meteorological parameters and their effects on aerosols. The data were collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains climate research facility during 2000–15. The parameters and vertical distribution of temperature inversion layers were found to have strong diurnal and seasonal changes. For surface-based temperature inversion (SBI), the mean frequency and depth of temperature inversion layers were 39.4% and 198 m, respectively. The temperature difference between the top and bottom of SBI was 4.8℃, and so the temperature gradient was 2.4℃(100 m)^-1. The detailed vertical distributions of temperature inversion had been determined, and only the temperature inversion layers below 1000 m showed diurnal and seasonal variations. Mean surface aerosol number concentrations increased by 43.0%, 21.9% and 49.2% when SBIs were present at 0530, 1730 and 2330 LST, respectively. The effect of SBI on surface aerosol concentration was weakest in summer (18.1%) and strongest in winter (58.4%). During elevated temperature inversion events, there was no noticeable difference in surface aerosol number concentrations. Temperature differences and temperature gradients across SBIs correlated fairly well with aerosol number concentrations, especially for temperature gradients. The vertical distribution of aerosol optical properties with and without temperature inversions was different. Surface aerosol measurements were representative of the air within (below), but not above, SBIs and EIs. These results provide a basis for developing a boundary layer aerosol accumulation model and for improving radiative transfer models in the lower atmosphere.

Summertime temperature variations in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and their related circulation anomalies in the past five decades

Using the daily data of temperature from China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1960 to 2005, we have analyzed the relationships between the summertime high/low temperature events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） and the related circulation anomalies in the Eastern Hemisphere. Our results have demonstrated that a significantly increasing trend is observed in daily minimum temperature in the past 50 years. And in some regions in the Northern Hemisphere, the opposite scenarios are observed in circulation anomalies in lower and upper parts of the troposphere in the years when the temperatures are higher than normal, as compared to those in the years when the temperatures are lower than normal in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR）. Additionally, the anomalous circulation structure in vertical direction in both the high and lower temperature years are barotropic. It is found that the emergence and maintenance of the aforementioned anomalous circulations are related to three kinds of wave train teleconnection patterns. Further more, influences of the long wave surface radiation on the air temperature are stronger in the nighttime than that in the daytime. While both the maximum and minimum temperatures have negative relationships with the sensible heat flux but positive relationships with the latent heat flux. To some extent, the anomalous dynamic heating （cooling） caused by the vertical thermal advection as well as the diabatic heating （cooling） caused by diabatic processes can explain the formation of the high （low） temperature events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） in boreal summer.

P-Wave Velocity in Rocks of Dabieshan, China at High Pressure and High Temperature: Constraints for Composition of Lower Crust and Crust-Mantle Recycling

P-wave velocities in the rocks of Dabieshan, central China were measured at pressures up to 5.0 GPa and temperatures up to 1 300℃. The ultrahigh pressure eclogites have the highest density and P-wave velocity (Vp) and lower anisotropy. Pressure derivatives of the eclogites range from 0. 22 to 0. 33 km. s-1 GPa-1. Average temperature derivative of the eclogites is - 3. 41×10-4 km. s-1. °C -1. The density and VP of the eclogites imply that there will be two united possibilities related to crust-mantle recycling after the eclogite formed in the deep lithosphere. One is that some eclogites in the deep lithosphere were detached and sunk into deeper mantle due to their denser density. Another is that some eclogites returned to the crust and exposed to the surface.Small amounts (<12%) of eclogites may be still exist in the deep crust beneath Dabieshan based on our calculation.

Synthesis and Characterization of Liquid Crystal with Lower Temperature of Phase Change of meso-tetra-(4-n-lauroyloxyphenyl)porphyrin

The synthesis and characterization of meso-tetra (4-n-lauroyloxy phenyl) porphyrin with long ester chains are reported. The domains of stability and the structure of the liquid crystalline phases are determined by optical microscopy and differential scanning calorimerials (DSC).

Alumina Solubility in Na_3AlF_6-K_3AlF_6-AlF_3 Molten Salt System Prospective for Aluminum Electrolysis at Lower Temperature

The alumina solubility in the title system within the composition range of KR{m（K3AlF6）/[m（K3AlF6）＋ m（Na3AlF6）]} 10%―50%, a ternary Na3AlF6-K3AlF6-AlF3 molten system with 23%―29%（mass fraction） AlF3 was investigated by measuring the mass loss of a rotating sintered corundum disc. And the following empirical equation was derived when superheat degree was no more than 60 °C： w（Al2O3）sat=A×（T/1000）B, where A= –1.85774＋ 26.754234w（AlF3）–0.3683–0.00783KR2.363＋0.010266KR2.3048＋0.7902w（AlF3）0.00652, B=112.4625–53.2567w（AlF3）0.4236＋ 5.1079w（AlF3）0.9241＋0.01542w（AlF3）1.3540. Considering both higher alumina solubility and not too high superheat de gree are required, alumina solubility of different compositions at not the same temperature but the same superheat degree was studied, which will be more industrial helpful for selecting prospective compositions. The results show that the composition deserved to be further tested in lower temperature cells is 10%―30% KR and 23%―26%（mass fraction） AlF3.

Effects of Lower Temperature in Spring on Tea Yield in Xuancheng Area

Data of daily mean temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours and tea yield in Xuancheng area from 1979 to 2008 were used to analyze the relationship between lower temperature in spring and tea yield. The results showed during 1979 -2008, the per unit area yield of tea in Xu- ancheng area fluctuated greatly in various years. The relative meteorological yield of tea changed greatly during 1979 -2008, and the decrease in tea yield occurred frequently over the past 30 years. Over the past 30 years, the probability of lower temperature in spring was 56.7%, and the probability of serious and extremely serious lower temperature in spring was 43.4%. In each off year with decrease in tea yield, medium or above lower temperature in spring occurred, showing that the impact of lower temperature in spring on tea yield was very obvious.

Effects of temperatures on the development and reproduction of the armyworm, Mythimna roseilinea: Analysis using an age-stage, two-sex life table

The armyworm Mythimna roseilinea（Walker） is a major pest of grain crops in South China. So far little is known about its basic biology and ecology, making prediction of population dynamics difficult. This study examined the relationships of individual development and population growth with temperature based on an age-stage, two-sex life table of M. roseilinea reared on maize in the laboratory at 18, 21, 24, 27 and 30℃. The highest values of net reproductive rate（R_0） and fecundity were observed at 21 and 24℃, respectively. Both the intrinsic rate of increase（r） and finite rate of increase（λ） increased significantly and mean generation time（T） decreased significantly with increasing temperature. M. roseilinea was able to develop, survive and lay eggs at all temperature regimes tested. Development rates of the egg, larval, pupal, as well as the whole pre-oviposition stages had a positive linear relationship with temperature. The calculated development threshold temperatures of egg, larval, pupal, pre-oviposition and total pre-oviposition stages were 13.29, 8.39, 14.35, 7.42, and 12.24℃, respectively, and their effective accumulated temperatures were 63.59, 445.00, 211.11, 89.02, and 698.95 degree-days, respectively. These results provide insight into temperature-based phenology and population ecology of this insect pest and will allow population prediction and management available in the field.

Temperature Distribution and Heat Flux on the EAST Divertor Targets in H-Mode

An infrared camera （IR） has been put into operation in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak （EAST）, which is used to measure the temperature distribution on the surface of lower divertor target plates. With a finite difference method, the heat flux onto the divertor target plates is calculated from the surface temperature profile. The high confinement mode （H-mode） with type-III edge localized modes （ELMs） has been obtained with about 1 MW lower-hybrid wave power on the EAST in the autumn experiment in 2010. The analyzed H-mode discharges were lower single null X-point diverted discharges with a density range of 〈 ne 〉 （1 - 4） × 10^19 m-3. The surface temperature of the inner target plate increases with heating power. The peak temperature on the surface of target plates is lower than 200 ~C with about 2.4 MW heating power. Comparison among the heat flux profiles occurring in different phases in the same discharge has been performed. It indicates that the heat flux profile obviously changes from the ohmic phase to the H-mode phase, and the full width at half maximum （FWHM） of the heat flux profile is the narrowest during the ELM-free H-phase. On the outer target plate, the peak heat flux exceeds 2 MW/m2 during the ELMy H-mode phase, whereas it is only about 0.8 MW/m2 during the ELM-free phase in the same discharge.

Correction of temperature influence on the wind retrieval from a mobile Rayleigh Doppler lidar

A mobile Rayleigh Doppler lidar based on double-edge technique is implemented for simultaneously observing wind and temperature at heights of 15 km-60 km away from ground.Before the inversion of the Doppler shift due to wind,the Rayleigh response function should be calculated,which is a convolution of the laser spectrum,Rayleigh backscattering function,and the transmission function of the Fabry-Perot interferometer used as the frequency discriminator in the lidar.An analysis of the influence of the temperature on the accuracy of the Une-of-sight winds shows that real-time temperature profiles are needed because the bandwidth of the Rayleigh backscattering function is temperature-dependent.An integration method is employed in the inversion of the temperature,where the convergence of this method and the high signal-to-noise ratio below 60 km ensure the accuracy and precision of the temperature profiles inverted.Then,real-time and on-site temperature profiles are applied to correct the wind instead of using temperature profiles from a numerical prediction system or atmosphere model.The corrected wind profiles show satisfactory agreement with the wind profiles acquired from radiosondes,proving the reliability of the method.

A New Weighting Function for Estimating Microwave Sounding Unit Channel 4 Temperature Trends Simulated by CMIP5 Climate Models

A new static microwave sounding unit （MSU） channel 4 weighting function is obtained from using Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, Phase 5 （CMIP5） historical multimodel simulations as inputs into the fast Radiative Transfer Model for TOVS （RTTOV v10）. For the same CMIP5 model simulations, it is demonstrated that the computed MSU channel 4 brightness temperature （T4） trends in the lower stratosphere over both the globe and the tropics using the proposed weighting function are equivalent to those calculated by RTTOV, but show more cooling than those computed using the traditional UAH （University of Alabama at Huntsville） or RSS （Remote Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa, California） static weighting functions. The new static weighting function not only reduces the computational cost, but also reveals reasons why trends using a radiative transfer model are different from those using a traditional static weighting function. This study also shows that CMIP5 model simulated T4 trends using the traditional UAH or RSS static weighting functions show less cooling than satellite observations over the globe and the tropics. Although not completely removed, this difference can be reduced using the proposed weighting function to some extent, especially over the tropics. This work aims to explore the reasons for the trend differences and to see to what extent they are related to the inaccurate weighting functions. This would also help distinguish other sources for trend errors and thus better understand the climate change in the lower stratosphere.

Impact of core electron temperature on current profile broadening with radiofrequency wave heating and current drive in EAST

In recent EAST experiments,current profile broadening characterized by reduced internal inductance has been achieved by utilizing radio-frequency current drives(RFCD).In contrast to previous density scan experiments,which showed an outward shift of the current density profile of lower hybrid current drive(LHCD)in higher plasma density,the core electron temperature(T_(e)(0))is found to affect the LHCD current profile as well.According to equilibrium reconstruction,a significant increase in on-axis safety factor(q0)from 2.05 to 3.41 is observed by careful arrangement of RFCD.Simulations using ray-tracing code GENRAY and Fokker–Planck code CQL3D have been performed to thoroughly analyze the LHCD current profile,revealing the sensitivity of the LHCD current profile to T_(e)(0).The LHCD current density tends to accumulate in the plasma core with higher current drive efficiency benefiting from higher T_(e)(0).With a lower T_(e)(0),the LHCD current profile broadens due to off-axis deposition of power density.The sensitivity of the power deposition and current profile of LHCD to T_(e)(0)provides a promising way to effectively optimize current profile via control of the core electron temperature.

A helium stratified and ingassed lower mantle: resolving the helium paradoxes

It is generally believed a variation of 3He/4He isotopic ratios in the mantle is due to only the decay of U and Th,which produces4 He as well as heat.Here we show that not only3He/4He isotopic ratios but also helium contents can be fractionated by thermal diffusion in the lower mantle.The driving force for that fractionation is the adiabatic or convective temperature gradient,which always produces elemental and isotopic fractionation along temperature gradient by thermal diffusion with higher light/heavy isotopic ratio in the hot end.Our theoretical model and calculations indicate that the lower mantle is helium stratified,caused by thermal diffusion due to*400℃temperature contrast across the lower mantle.The highest3He/4He isotopic ratios and lowest He contents are in the lowermost mantle,which is a consequence of thermaldiffusion fractionation rather than the lower mantle is a primordial and undegassed reservoir.Therefore,oceanicisland basalts derived from the deepest lower mantle with high3He/4He isotopic ratios and less He contents—the long-standing helium paradox,is solved by our model.Because vigorous convection in the upper mantle had resulted in disordered or disorganized thermal-diffusion effects in He,Mid-ocean ridge basalts unaffected by mantle plume have a relatively homogenous and lower!3He/4He isotopic compositions.Our model also predicts that 3He/4He isotopic ratios in the deepest lower mantle of early Earth could be even higher than that of Jupiter,the initial He isotopic ratio in our solar system,because the temperature contrast across the lower mantle in the early Earth is the largest and less4 He had been produced by the decay of U and Th.Moreover,the early helium-stratified lower mantle owned the lowest He contents due to over-degassing caused by the largest temperature contrast.Consequently,succeeding evolution of the lower mantle is a He ingassed process due to secular cooling of the deepest mantle.This explains why significant amount of He produced by the decay of U and Th in the lower mantle were not released,another long-standing heat–helium paradox.

Aluminum solubility in bridgmanite up to 3000 K at the top lower mantle

The temperature dependence of the Al2O3 solubility in bridgmanite has been determined in the system MgSiO3–Al_(2)O_(3)at temperatures of 2750–3000 K under a constant pressure of 27 GPa using a multi-anvil apparatus.Bridgmanite becomes more aluminous with increasing temperatures.A LiNbO3-type phase with a pyrope composition(Mg_(3)Al_(2)Si_(3)O_(12))forms at 2850 K,which is regarded as to be transformed from bridgmanite upon decompression.This phase contains 30 mol%Al_(2)O_(3)at 3000 K.The MgSiO3 solubility in corundum also increases with temperatures,reaching 52 mol%at 3000 K.Molar volumes of the hypothetical Al_(2)O_(3)bridgmanite and MgSiO_(3)corundum are constrained to be 25.950.05 and 26.24±0.06 cm^(3)/mol,respectively,and interaction parameters of non-ideality for these two phases are 5.6±0.5 and 2.2±0.5 KJ/mol,respectively.The increases in Al^(2)O^(3)and MgSiO^(3)contents,respectively,in bridgmanite and corundum are caused by a larger entropy of Al_(2)O_(3)bridgmanite plus MgSiO_(3)corundum than that of MgSiO_(3)bridgmanite plus Al_(2)O_(3)corundum with temperature,in addition to the configuration entropy.Our study may help explain dynamics of the top lower mantle and constrain pressure and temperature conditions of shocked meteorites.

COMPARISONS OF CIRCULATION ANOMALIES BETWEEN THE DAILY PRECIPITATION EXTREME AND NON-EXTREME EVENTS IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF YANGTZE RIVER IN BOREAL SUMMER

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and in situ meteorological observations of daily precipitation in boreal summer from 1979 to 2008, the features of circulation anomalies have been investigated using the composite analysis for the extreme events and non-extreme events of regional mean daily rainfall(RMDR) occurring over the midand lower- Yangtze valley(MLYV). The extreme RMDR(ERMDR) events are the events at and above the percentile99 in the rearranged time-series of the RMDR with ascending order of rainfall amount. The non-extreme RMDR events are those at the percentiles 90-85 and 80-75 separately. Our results suggest that the threshold value is 25 mm/day for the ERMDR at percentile 99. Precipitation at all the percentiles is found to occur more frequently in the Meiyu rainfall season in MLYV, and the ERMDR events have occurred with higher frequency since the 1990 s. For the percentiles-associated events, the MLYV is under the control of an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the mid- and lower- troposphere with vastly different anomalous circulation at higher levels. However, at both low and high levels, the ERMDR events-related anomalous circulation is stronger compared to that linked to the non-ERMDR events. The dominant sources of water vapor differ between the ERMDR and non-ERMDR events. During the ERMDR events plentiful water vapor is transported from the Bay of Bengal into the MLYV directly by divergence while there is distinctly increased water vapor from the South China Sea(SCS) in non-RMERMDR episodes. The diabatic heating rates < Q1>, < Q2> and< Q1>- < Q2> have their anomalous patterns and are consistent with each other for these percentiles but their strength decreases markedly with the drop of rainfall intensity. For the precipitation at percentiles 99 and 90-85, the sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in the Pacific distribute positively(negatively) in the south(north), and are stronger when the ERMDR emerges, with little or no SSTA as the events at percentile 80-75 occur. Besides, these results suggest that the genesis of the ERMDR event is directly related to intense local circulation anomalies and the circulation anomalies over the Pacific and SCS in tropical to mid-latitudes, and probably linked with the Pacific SSTA closely while the non-ERMDR events are mainly associated with the anomalous circulation on a local basis. The findings here help understand and predict the happening of ERMDR events over the MLYV.

Climatic Changes and Their Effect on Wildlife of District Dir Lower, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Climatic changes and their impact are increasingly evident in Pakistan,especially in the mountainous regions. Mountain ecosystems are consideredto be sensitive indicators of global warming;even slight variationsin temperature can lead to significant shifts in local climate, which can,in turn, drastically affect the natural environment, subsequently alteringpeople’s lifestyle and wildlife habitats. The targeted area for the presentresearch was Lower Dir District, Pakistan. The study gathered the requiredinformation from primary and secondary sources. Secondary dataon temperature and precipitation were obtained from various sources,i.e., local CBO, including WWF Pakistan. Based on information gatheredon climate change and wildlife, a detailed questionnaire was designed.Results showed that no regular pattern of the increase was found in temperaturefrom 2010 to 2018;the same was noticed in the rainfall decreasepattern. Results also showed that the leading causes behind climaticchanges are an increase in greenhouse gases due to pollution by industries,vehicles, crushing plants, deforestation, and some natural phenomenasuch as floods. The study showed that more than 80% of the respondentsagreed that climatic effects have a significant impact on wildlife, i.e.,the existence of wildlife falls in danger due to climatic changes as it maylead to habitat change, making it difficult for the survival and adaptationof the wildlife. Hence, in consequence, it leads to migration, low growthrate, an increase in morbidity and mortality rate, and finally leading to theextinction of the species or population. It is concluded from the study thatpeople are severely noticing the climatic change and its leading causesare greenhouse gases and deforestation. To control climatic changes andwildlife extinction, we need an appropriate policy for forest conservation,wildlife conservation, prevent hunting, industrial pollution control, vehiclepollution control, increase in plantation, awareness of policy for thecontrol of climatic changes, etc.

四川盆地深层页岩气钻井关键技术新进展及发展展望

四川盆地页岩气资源丰富,目前深层页岩气已成为该盆地天然气增储上产的重点领域,但随着埋深增加和构造背景变化,地质工程条件将更加复杂,钻井过程中将面临井漏风险高、井下工具高温易失效、水平井轨迹控制难度大等技术难题。为此,在系统分析已完钻井实钻数据的基础上,依据深层页岩气区块地质工程特征,系统梳理了影响安全优快钻井的关键技术难点,形成了以地质工程一体化导向技术、钻井提速技术、防漏治漏与复杂防治技术为主体的深层页岩气安全优快钻井关键技术系列。研究结果表明:(1)以精细地质建模优选地质工程“双甜点”、实时靶体追踪为主的地质工程一体化导向技术,实现了地质目标的精准优选和精确追踪;(2)以“高效PDC钻头选型+个性化优化+大扭矩螺杆”高效破岩技术、“MSE+CCS”参数实时优化技术、油基钻井液地面降温+高温旋转导向技术为主的钻井提速技术,实现了页岩气钻井提速提效;(3)以井壁稳定性评价、裂缝性漏层识别、井漏与复杂防治为主的复杂防治技术,从源头降低了井下漏失和卡钻风险。结论认为:(1)形成的深层页岩气安全优快钻井技术,显著提高了机械钻速和铂金靶体钻遇率,在现场规模化推广应用200余口井,单井平均钻井周期降低42.7%,钻井提速效果显著,有力支撑了深层页岩气效益规模开发;(2)深层页岩气钻井将聚焦“地质工程一体化、水平段一趟钻、防漏治漏及智能钻井决策”等方面的技术攻关。

钢芯铝绝缘导线融冰传热分析

为消除电网覆冰灾害,对一种嵌入绝缘层的钢芯铝绞线结构进行了融冰研究,简要介绍了其在不断电情况下,利用线路运行电流实现在线融冰技术的原理。针对该导线结构,文章从传热学角度对其融冰物理过程进行了分析,建立了无重力条件下该导线融冰时的简易数学模型,推导了该导线达到融冰稳态时,导线各部分温度分布解析式,设计定制了嵌入绝缘层的钢芯铝绞线来进行融冰实验,实验结果验证了该导线融冰的有效性和可行性。

近136年(1885~2020年)长江中下游伏旱期划分及其演变分析

少雨高温的伏旱期对长江中下游地区农业、水利和人体健康等具有重要影响,但目前缺乏对该地区伏旱期的历史划分,对其长期变化规律也缺乏充分认识。本文利用1885年以来已划定的长江中下游沿江五站(上海、南京、芜湖、九江和汉口)梅雨期和夏季日气温、降水资料,对出梅后的少雨高温时段分别确定了少雨和高温的定量标准,划定出1885~2020年长江中下游伏旱期,并用统一气温标准结合伏旱期长度,综合确定了近136 a(1885~2020年)伏旱期强度指数。这136 a(包含有16个无伏旱年及10个入秋伏旱年)里伏旱期的年平均长度为21.6 d,呈现出3~6 a、36 a和84 a周期。1951年以来,1959~1978年是伏旱期长度的主要峰期,1980~1987年是伏旱期长度的下降谷期,之后缓慢增加;1980年代之后虽然大于30 d的长伏旱期有减少趋势,但是15~30 d且高强度的伏旱期频现;1995年之后秋伏旱明显增多,夏季延迟。136 a里最长且强的伏旱期依次出现于1934、1967、1978和2013年;最早的伏旱期出现在6月中旬,最晚在9月中下旬。近40 a来,伏旱期高温(≥35.0°C)日数大幅提高,伏旱期高温发生率从1980年代的30%左右上升到近年的50%以上,对人体健康构成威胁。长(强)伏旱期的副热带环流特征为西太平洋副热带高压稳定控制长江中下游区,而短(弱)伏旱期西太平洋副热带高压多偏东或偏南,入秋伏旱与副热带高压稳定西伸有关。伏旱期内高温日数的演变受到双重人类活动的制约,它不仅与人类活动导致的全球海陆升温有关,并且因地而异,即受到局地生态环境演变和城市热岛效应增减的人为作用影响。印度—太平洋季风区陆海温差对长江中下游伏旱期长度年代际变化有重要调制作用。