Robust estimation of time-dependent precision matrix with application to the cryptocurrency market

Most financial signals show time dependency that,combined with noisy and extreme events,poses serious problems in the parameter estimations of statistical models.Moreover,when addressing asset pricing,portfolio selection,and investment strategies,accurate estimates of the relationship among assets are as necessary as are delicate in a time-dependent context.In this regard,fundamental tools that increasingly attract research interests are precision matrix and graphical models,which are able to obtain insights into the joint evolution of financial quantities.In this paper,we present a robust divergence estimator for a time-varying precision matrix that can manage both the extreme events and time-dependency that affect financial time series.Furthermore,we provide an algorithm to handle parameter estimations that uses the“maximization–minimization”approach.We apply the methodology to synthetic data to test its performances.Then,we consider the cryptocurrency market as a real data application,given its remarkable suitability for the proposed method because of its volatile and unregulated nature.

Efficient Distributed Estimation of High-dimensional Sparse Precision Matrix for Transelliptical Graphical Models

In this paper,distributed estimation of high-dimensional sparse precision matrix is proposed based on the debiased D-trace loss penalized lasso and the hard threshold method when samples are distributed into different machines for transelliptical graphical models.At a certain level of sparseness,this method not only achieves the correct selection of non-zero elements of sparse precision matrix,but the error rate can be comparable to the estimator in a non-distributed setting.The numerical results further prove that the proposed distributed method is more effective than the usual average method.

A GREEDY ALGORITHM FOR SPARSE PRECISION MATRIX APPROXIMATION

Precision matrix estimation is an important problem in statistical data analysis.This paper proposes a sparse precision matrix estimation approach,based on CLIME estimator and an efficient algorithm GISSP that was originally proposed for li sparse signal recovery in compressed sensing.The asymptotic convergence rate for sparse precision matrix estimation is analyzed with respect to the new stopping criteria of the proposed GISSP algorithm.Finally,numerical comparison of GISSP with other sparse recovery algorithms,such as ADMM and HTP in three settings of precision matrix estimation is provided and the numerical results show the advantages of the proposed algorithm.

Improved precise integration method for differential Riccati equation

An improved precise integration method （IPIM） for solving the differential Riccati equation （DRE） is presented. The solution to the DRE is connected with the exponential of a Hamiltonian matrix, and the precise integration method （PIM） for solving the DRE is connected with the scaling and squaring method for computing the exponential of a matrix. The error analysis of the scaling and squaring method for the exponential of a matrix is applied to the PIM of the DRE. Based ,on the error analysis, the criterion for choosing two parameters of the PIM is given. Three kinds of IPIMs for solving the DRE are proposed. The numerical examples machine accuracy solutions. show that the IPIM is stable and gives the

High order symplectic conservative perturbation method for time-varying Hamiltonian system

This paper presents a high order symplectic con- servative perturbation method for linear time-varying Hamil- tonian system. Firstly, the dynamic equation of Hamilto- nian system is gradually changed into a high order pertur- bation equation, which is solved approximately by resolv- ing the Hamiltonian coefficient matrix into a ＂major compo- nent＂ and a ＂high order small quantity＂ and using perturba- tion transformation technique, then the solution to the orig- inal equation of Hamiltonian system is determined through a series of inverse transform. Because the transfer matrix determined by the method in this paper is the product of a series of exponential matrixes, the transfer matrix is a sym- plectic matrix; furthermore, the exponential matrices can be calculated accurately by the precise time integration method, so the method presented in this paper has fine accuracy, ef- ficiency and stability. The examples show that the proposed method can also give good results even though a large time step is selected, and with the increase of the perturbation or- der, the perturbation solutions tend to exact solutions rapidly.

Bayesian Lasso with Neighborhood Regression Method for Gaussian Graphical Model

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating a high dimensional precision matrix of Gaussian graphical model. Taking advantage of the connection between multivariate linear regression and entries of the precision matrix, we propose Bayesian Lasso together with neighborhood regression estimate for Gaussian graphical model. This method can obtain parameter estimation and model selection simultaneously. Moreover, the proposed method can provide symmetric confidence intervals of all entries of the precision matrix.

Structural and acoustic response of a finite stiffened conical shell

In this paper, a precise transfer matrix method is presented to calculate the struc- tural and acoustic responses of the conical shell. The governing equations of conical shells are written as a coupled set of first order differential equations. The field transfer matrix of the shell and non-homogenous term resulting from the external excitation are obtained by precise integra- tion method. After assembling the field transfer matrixes, the whole matrix describing dynamic behavior of the stiffened conical shell is obtained. Then the structural and acoustic responses of the shell are solved by obtaining unknown sound pressure coefficients. The natural frequencies of the shell are compared with the FEM results to test the validity. Furthermore, the effects of the semi-vertex angle, driving force directions and boundary conditions on the structural and acoustic responses are studied.