Predictive value of hypo-osmotic swelling test to identifyviable non-motile sperm

Aim: To determine the predictive value of the hypo-osmotic swelling (HOS) test to identify viable, non-motile sperm. Methods: Semen samples from 20 men with severe asthenozoospermia underwent traditional seminal analysis, eosin-nigrosin (EN) staining and the HOS test. A further EN stain was then performed on a HOS pre-treated aliquot and a total of 2000 further sperm examined. Results: The median sperm density was 5.1 million/mL (IQR 4.3-13.1) and the median motility was 3.0 % (IQR 0-7). Seven samples showed complete asthenozoospermia. Initial EN staining showed 59 % viability (range 48-69) despite the poor standard parameters and 47 % (range 33-61) in the complete asthenozoospermia subgroup. The HOS test showed 49.9 % reacted overall (range 40-59) and 41.7 % (range 22-61) in the complete asthenozoospermia subgroup. The combined HOS/EN stain showed the positive predictive value of the HOS test to identify viable sperm was 84.2 % overall and 79.7 % in the complete asthenozoospermia subgroup. Conclusion: The HOS test can effectively predict sperm viability in patients with severe and complete asthenozoospermia.

A SEQUENTIAL TESTING PROGRAM FOR PREDICTING AND IDENTIFICATING CARCINOGENS AND ITS APPLICATION

In this paper our studies about the sequential testing program for predicting and identificating carcinogens, sequential discriminant method and cost- effectiveness analysis are summarized. The analysis of our database of carcinogeniclty and genotoxicity of chemicals demonstrates the uncertainty . of short- term tests ( STTs ) to predict carcinogens and the results of most routine STTs are statistically dependent. We recommend the sequential testing program combining STTs and carclnogenicity assay, the optimal STT batteries, the rules of the sequential discrimination and the preferal choices of STTs tor specific chemical class. For illustrative pmposes the carclnogenicity prediction of several sample chamicals is presented. The results of cost-effectiveness analysis suggest that this program has vast social-economic effectiveness.

Comparing Data Mining Techniques in HIV Testing Prediction

Introduction: The present work compared the prediction power of the different data mining techniques used to develop the HIV testing prediction model. Four popular data mining algorithms (Decision tree, Naive Bayes, Neural network, logistic regression) were used to build the model that predicts whether an individual was being tested for HIV among adults in Ethiopia using EDHS 2011. The final experimentation results indicated that the decision tree (random tree algorithm) performed the best with accuracy of 96%, the decision tree induction method (J48) came out to be the second best with a classification accuracy of 79%, followed by neural network (78%). Logistic regression has also achieved the least classification accuracy of 74%. Objectives: The objective of this study is to compare the prediction power of the different data mining techniques used to develop the HIV testing prediction model. Methods: Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) was used to predict the model for HIV testing and explore association rules between HIV testing and the selected attributes. Data preprocessing was performed and missing values for the categorical variable were replaced by the modal value of the variable. Different data mining techniques were used to build the predictive model. Results: The target dataset contained 30,625 study participants. Out of which 16,515 (54%) participants were women while the rest 14,110 (46%) were men. The age of the participants in the dataset ranged from 15 to 59 years old with modal age of 15 - 19 years old. Among the study participants, 17,719 (58%) have never been tested for HIV while the rest 12,906 (42%) had been tested. Residence, educational level, wealth index, HIV related stigma, knowledge related to HIV, region, age group, risky sexual behaviour attributes, knowledge about where to test for HIV and knowledge on family planning through mass media were found to be predictors for HIV testing. Conclusion and Recommendation: The results obtained from this research reveal that data mining is crucial in extracting relevant information for the effective utilization of HIV testing services which has clinical, community and public health importance at all levels. It is vital to apply different data mining techniques for the same settings and compare the model performances (based on accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity) with each other. Furthermore, this study would also invite interested researchers to explore more on the application of data mining techniques in healthcare industry or else in related and similar settings for the future.

Prediction of flare-ups of ulcerative colitis using quantitative immunochemical fecal occult blood test

AIM:To examine the feasibility of predicting the flareup of ulcerative colitis (UC) before symptoms emerge using the immunochemical fecal occult blood test (IFOBT).METHODS:We prospectively measured fecal hemoglobin concentrations in 78 UC patients using the I-FOBT every 1 or 2 mo.RESULTS:During a 20 mo-period,823 fecal samples from 78 patients were submitted.The median concentration of fecal hemoglobin was 41 ng/mL (range:0-392 500 ng/mL).There were three types of patients with regard to the correlation between I-FOBT and patient symptoms;the synchronous transition type with symptoms (44 patients),the unrelated type withsymptoms (19 patients),and the flare-up predictive type (15 patients).In patients with the flare-up predictive type,the values of I-FOBT were generally low during the study period with stable symptoms.Two to four weeks before the flare-up of symptoms,the I-FOBT values were high.Thus,in these patients,I-FOBT could predict the flare-up before symptoms emerged.CONCLUSION:Flare-up could be predicted by I-FOBT in approximately 20% of UC patients.These results warrant periodical I-FOBT in UC patients.

Relation of predictive value to sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test

This paper discusses how the positive and negative predictive values vary withcontrary variations of sensitivity and specificity at a certain disease prevalence.Let thesensitiviy be Se and the specificity be Sp at the initial cutoff point,correspondingly Se’and Sp’ at a new cutoff point:A=Se’/Se:B-(1-Sp’)/(1-Sp):C=Sp’/Sp;D=(I-Se’)/(I-Se).Moving the cutoff point from the initial point to the new point,if the contrary variationsof the sensitivity and specificity satisfy the inequality A】B,then the positive predictivevalue increases,otherwise it decreases or remains unchanged.If the variations satisfy theinequality C】D,then the negative prcdictive value increases,otherwise it decreasses or re-mains unchanged.

Empirical Analysis of Object-Oriented Design Metrics for Predicting Unit Testing Effort of Classes

In this paper, we investigate empirically the relationship between object-oriented design metrics and testability of classes. We address testability from the point of view of unit testing effort. We collected data from three open source Java software systems for which JUnit test cases exist. To capture the testing effort of classes, we used metrics to quantify the corresponding JUnit test cases. Classes were classified, according to the required unit testing effort, in two categories: high and low. In order to evaluate the relationship between object-oriented design metrics and unit testing effort of classes, we used logistic regression methods. We used the univariate logistic regression analysis to evaluate the individual effect of each metric on the unit testing effort of classes. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore the combined effect of the metrics. The performance of the prediction models was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. The results indicate that: 1) complexity, size, cohesion and (to some extent) coupling were found significant predictors of the unit testing effort of classes and 2) multivariate regression models based on object-oriented design metrics are able to accurately predict the unit testing effort of classes.

Prediction of recurrence and prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after resection by use of CLIP score

AIM: The survival time of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after resection is hard to predict. Both residual liver function and tumor extension factors should be considered. A new scoring system has recently been proposed by the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP). CLIP score was confirmed to be one of the best ways to stage patients with HCC. To our knowledge, however, the literature concerning the correlation between CLIP score and prognosis for patients with HCC after resection was not published. The aim of this study is to evaluate the recurrence and prognostic value of CLIP score for the patients with HCC after resection. METHODS: A retrospective survey was carried out in 174 patients undergoing resection of HCC from January 1986 to June 1998. Six patients who died in the hospital after operation and 11 patients with the recurrence of the disease were excluded at 1 month after hepatectomy. By the end of June 2001, 4 patients were lost and 153 patients with curative resection have been followed up for at least three years. Among 153 patients, 115 developed intrahepatic recurrence and 10 developed extrahepatic recurrence, whereas the other 28 remained free of recurrence. Recurrences were classified into early (【 or =3 year) and late (】3 year) recurrence. The CLIP score included the parameters involved in the Child-Pugh stage (0-2), plus macroscopic tumor morphology (0-2), AFP levels (0-1), and the presence or absence of portal thrombosis (0-1). By contrast, portal vein thrombosis was defined as the presence of tumor emboli within vascular channel analyzed by microscopic examination in this study. Risk factors for recurrence and prognostic factors for survival in each group were analyzed by the chi-square test, the Kaplan-Meier estimation and the COX proportional hazards model respectively. RESULTS: The 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-,and 10-year disease-free survival rates after curative resection of HCC were 57.2%, 28.3%, 23.5%, 18.8%, and 17.8%, respectively. Median survival time was 28, 10, 4, and 5 mo for CLIP score 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 to 5, respectively. Early and late recurrence developed in 109 patients and 16 patients respectively. By the chi-square test, tumor size, microsatellite, venous invasion, tumor type (uninodular, multinodular, massive), tumor extension (【 or = or 】50% of liver parenchyma replaced by tumor), TNM stage, CLIP score, and resection margin were the risk factors for early recurrence, whereas CLIP score and Child-Pugh stage were significant risk factors for late recurrence. In univariate survival analysis, Child-Pugh stages, resection margin, tumor size, microsatellite, venous invasion, tumor type, tumor extension, TNM stages, and CLIP score were associated with prognosis. The multivariate analysis by COX proportional hazards model showed that the independent predictive factors of survival were resection margins and TNM stages. CONCLUSION: CLIP score has displayed a unique superiority in predicting the tumor early and late recurrence and prognosis in the patients with HCC after resection.

Effect of in vitro interferon-beta administration on hepatitis C virus in peripheral blood mononuclear cells as a predictive marker of clinical response to interferon treatment for chronic hepatitis C

AIM:To test whether in vitro incubation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) with interferon (IFN) could efficiently decrease hepatitis C virus-RNA (HCV-RNA) amount and to analyze whether this effect was associated with clinical response to IFN.METHODS:Twenty-seven patients with histologically proven chronic hepatitis C were given intravenous administration of 6 million units (MU) IFN-β daily for 6 weeks followed by three times weekly for 20 weeks. PBMC collected before IFN therapy were incubated with IFN-β and HCV-RNA in PMBC was semi-quantitatively determined.RESULTS: Twenty-five patients completed IFN therapy.Eight patients (32%) had sustained loss of serum HCV-RNA with normal serum ALT levels after IFN therapy (complete responders).HCV-RNA in PBMC was detected in all patients,whereas it was not detected in PBMC from healthy subjects.In vitro administration of IFN-β decreased the amount of HCV-RNA in PMBC in 18 patients (72%). Eight of these patients obtained complete response. On the other hand,none of the patients whose HCV-RNA in PBMC did not decrease by IFN-β was complete responders. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that the decrease of HCV-RNA amount in PBMC by IFN-β was the only independent predictor for complete response (P<0.05).CONCLUSION:The effect of in vitro IFN-β on HCV in PBMC reflects clinical response and would be taken into account as a predictive marker of IFN therapy for chronic hepatitis C.

Fracture gradient prediction:an overview and an improved method

The fracture gradient is a critical parameter for drilling mud weight design in the energy industry. A new method in fracture gradient prediction is proposed based on analyzing worldwide leak-off test(LOT) data in offshore drilling. Current fracture gradient prediction methods are also reviewed and compared to the proposed method. We analyze more than 200 LOT data in several offshore petroleum basins and find that the fracture gradient depends not only on the overburden stress and pore pressure, but also on the depth. The data indicate that the effective stress coefficient is higher at a shallower depth than that at a deeper depth in the shale formations. Based on this finding,a depth-dependent effective stress coefficient is proposed and applied for fracture gradient prediction. In some petroleum basins, many wells need to be drilled through long sections of salt formations to reach hydrocarbon reservoirs.The fracture gradient in salt formations is very different from that in other sedimentary rocks. Leak-off test data in the salt formations are investigated, and a fracture gradient prediction method is proposed. Case applications are examined to compare different fracture gradient methods and validate the proposed methods. The reasons why the LOT value is higher than its overburden gradient are also explained.

PREDICTION AND CONTROL OF ROCKBURST DURING DEEP EXCAVATION OF A GOLD MINE IN CHINA

The studies of prediction and control of rockburst are presented during deep excavation in a gold mine in China. Firstly,the stress-relief method is used to obtain a vast amount of data about initial geostress. Secondly,3D FEM analyses of large scale are performed to find out the law of geostress distribution at various excavation levels of the mining area. At the same time,as an equally important measure,six typical kinds of rock blocks are sampled for the experimental study of rockburst tendency. According to the synthesized results of the theoretical and testing results,the methods of brittleness coefficient,brittle index and stress,and so on,are adopted. Finally,the evaluation on the possibility of rockbursts is given that may take place at the deep mining area and some effective measures are put forward to prevent and control the rockburst.

Generalized Rydelek-Sacks test for distinguishing between periodic and randompatterns in seismicity

For distinguishing the periodicity of strong earthquakes on the time scale of decades, we generalized the Rydelek-Sacks test (R) delek. Sacks. 1989) to explore whether a time series is modulated by a periodic process or not. Thetest is conducted by comparing the total phasor of seismicity with that produced by a random Brownian motion.The phdse angle is defined by the origin time of earthquakes relative to a reference time scale. Using this methodwe tested two hypotheses in geodynamics and earthquake prediction study. One is the hypothesis of Romanowicz( 1993 ) who proposed that the great earthquakes alternate in a predictable fashion between strike-slip and thrustingmechanisms oil a 20~30 years cycle. The other hypothesis is that the strong earthquakes in and around China havean active period of about ten years. The test obtains a negative conclusion for the former hypothesis and a positiveconclusion for the latter at the 93% confidence level.

Application of quantitative estimates of fecal hemoglobin concentration for risk prediction of colorectal neoplasia

AIM:To determine the role of the fecal immunochemical test(FIT),used to evaluate fecal hemoglobin concentration,in the prediction of histological grade and risk of colorectal tumors.METHODS:We enrolled 17881 individuals who attended the two-step colorectal cancer screening program in a single hospital between January 2010 and October 2011.Colonoscopy was recommended to the participants with an FIT of≥12 ngHb/mL buffer.We classified colorectal lesions as cancer(C),advanced adenoma(AA),adenoma(A),and others(O)by their colonoscopic and histological findings.Multiple linear regression analysis adjusted for age and gender was used to determine the association between the FIT results and colorectal tumor grade.The risk of adenomatous neoplasia was estimated by calculating the positive predictive values for different FIT concentrations.RESULTS:The positive rate of the FIT was 10.9%(1948/17881).The attendance rate for colonoscopy was 63.1%(1229/1948).The number of false positive results was 23.Of these 1229 cases,the numbers of O,A,AA,and C were 759,221,201,and 48,respectively.Regression analysis revealed a positive association between histological grade and FIT concentration(β=0.088,P<0.01).A significant log-linear relationship was found between the concentration and positive predictive value of the FIT for predicting colorectal tumors(R2>0.95,P<0.001).CONCLUSION:Higher FIT concentrations are associated with more advanced histological grades.Risk prediction for colorectal neoplasia based on individual FIT concentrations is significant and may help to improve the performance of screening programs.

Residual lifetime prediction model of nonlinear accelerated degradation data with measurement error

For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is built. An analytical approximation to the probability density function (PDF) of the product's lifetime is derived in a closed form. The process and data of SSADT are analyzed to obtain the relation model of the observed data under each accelerated stress. The likelihood function for the population-based observed data is constructed. The population-based model parameters and its random coefficient prior values are estimated. According to the newly observed data of the target product in SSADT, an analytical approximation to the PDF of its residual lifetime (RL) is derived in accordance with its individual degradation characteristics. The parameter updating method based on Bayesian inference is applied to obtain the posterior value of random coefficient of the RL model. A numerical example by simulation is analyzed to verify the accuracy and advantage of the proposed model.

Biochemical and radiological predictors of malignant biliary strictures

AIM: Differentiation of benign biliary strictures (BBS) from malignant biliary strictures (MBS) remains difficult despite improvement in imaging and endoscopic techniques. The aim of this study was to identify the clinical, biochemical and or radiological predictors of malignant biliary strictures.METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed all charts of patients who had biliary strictures (BS) on endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) or percutaneous cholangiography (PTC) in case of unsuccessful ERCP from March 1998 to August 2002. Patient characteristics, clinical features, biochemical, radiological and biopsy results were all recorded. Stricture etiology was determined based on cytology,biopsy or clinical follow-up. A receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed to determine the optimal laboratory diagnostic criterion threshold in predicting MBS.RESULTS: One hundred twenty six patients with biliary strictures were enrolled, of which 72 were malignant. The mean age for BBS was 53 years compared to 62.4 years for MBS (P=0.0006). Distal bile duct stricture was mainly due to a malignant process 48.6% vs 9% (P=0.001). Alkaline phosphates and AST levels were more significantly elevated in MBS (P=0.0002). ROC curve showed that a bilirubin level of 84 μmol/L or more was the most predictive of MBS with a sensitivity of 98.6%, specificity of 59.3% and a positive likelihood ratio of 2.42 (95% CI=0.649-0.810). Proximal biliary dilatation was more frequently encountered in MBS compared to BBS, 73.8% vs39.5% (P=0.0001). Majority of BBS (87%) and MBS (78%) were managed endoscopically.CONCLUSION: A serum bilirubin level of 84 μmol/L or greater is the best predictor of MBS. Older age, proximal biliary dilatation, higher levels of bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, ALT and AST are all associated with MBS. ERCP is necessary to diagnose and treat benign and malignant biliary strictures.

High cycle fatigue life prediction method for tail gearbox casing of a helicopter transmission system

A method and procedure of high cycle fatigue life prediction for helicopter transmission system tail gearbox casing is presented, including fatigue test load, three parameters S-N curve, reduction factor and cumulative damage law. According to the fatigue test results, the design load spectrum and the three parameters S-N curve, a fatigue life prediction of the tail gearbox casing of a helicopter is performed as an example.

Predictive value of symptoms and demographics in diagnosing malignancy or peptic stricture

AIM:To determine which features of history and demographics predict a diagnosis of malignancy or peptic stricture in patients presenting with dysphagia.METHODS:A prospective case-control study of 2000 consecutive referrals(1031 female,age range:17-103 years) to a rapid access service for dysphagia,based in a teaching hospital within the United Kingdom,over 7 years.The service consists of a nurse-led telephone triage followed by investigation(barium swallow or gastroscopy),if appropriate,within 2 wk.Logistic regression analysis of demographic and clinical variables was performed.This includes age,sex,duration of dysphagia,whether to liquids or solids,and whether there are associated features(reflux,odynophagia,weight loss,regurgitation).We determined odds ratio(OR) for these variables for the diagnoses of malignancy and peptic stricture.We determined the value of the Edinburgh Dysphagia Score(EDS) in predicting cancer in our cohort.Multivariate logistic regression was performed and P < 0.05 considered significant.The local ethics committee confirmed ethics approval was not required(audit).RESULTS:The commonest diagnosis is gastro-esophageal reflux disease(41.3%).Malignancy(11.0%) and peptic stricture(10.0%) were also relatively common.Malignancies were diagnosed by histology(97%) or on radiological criteria,either sequential barium swallows showing progression of disease or unequivocal evidence of malignancy on computed tomography.The majority of malignancies were esophago-gastric in origin but ear,nose and throat tumors,pancreatic cancer and extrinsic compression from lung or mediastinal metastatic cancer were also found.Malignancy was statistically more frequent in older patients(aged >73 years,OR 1.1-3.3,age < 60 years 6.5%,60-73 years 11.2%,> 73 years 11.8%,P < 0.05),males(OR 2.2-4.8,males 14.5%,females 5.6%,P < 0.0005),short duration of dysphagia(≤ 8 wk,OR 4.5-20.7,16.6%,8-26 wk 14.5%,> 26 wk 2.5%,P < 0.0005),progressive symptoms(OR 1.3-2.6:progressive 14.8%,intermittent 9.3%,P < 0.001),with weight loss of ≥ 2 kg(OR 2.5-5.1,weight loss 22.1%,without weight loss 6.4%,P < 0.0005) and without reflux(OR 1.2-2.5,reflux 7.2%,no reflux 15.5%,P < 0.0005).The likelihood of malignancy was greater in those who described true dysphagia(food or drink sticking within 5 s of swallowing than those who did not(15.1%vs 5.2% respectively,P < 0.001).The sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the EDS were 98.4%,9.3%,11.8% and 98.0% respectively.Three patients with an EDS of 3(high risk EDS ≥ 3.5) had malignancy.Unlike the original validation cohort,there was no difference in likelihood of malignancy based on level of dysphagia(pharyngeal level dysphagia 11.9% vs mid sternal or lower sternal dysphagia 12.4%).Peptic stricture was statistically more frequent in those with longer duration of symptoms(> 6 mo,OR 1.2-2.9,≤ 8 wk 9.8%,8-26 wk 10.6%,> 26 wk 15.7%,P < 0.05) and over 60 s(OR 1.2-3.0,age < 60 years 6.2%,60-73 years 10.2%,> 73 years 10.6%,P < 0.05).CONCLUSION:Malignancy and peptic stricture are frequent findings in those referred with dysphagia.The predictive value for associated features could help determine need for fast track investigation whilst reducing service pressures.

Modeling and Performance Prediction of Induction Motor Drive System for Electric Drive Tracked Vehicles

The principle of rotor flux-orientation vector control on 100/150 kW three-phase AC induction motor for electric drive tracked vehicles is analyzed, and the mathematic model is deduced. The drive system of induction motor is modeled and simulated by Matlab/Simulink. The characteristics of motor and drive system are analyzed and evaluated by practical bench test. The simulation and bench test results show that the model is valid, and the driving control system has constant torque under rated speed, constant torque above rated speed, widely variable speed range and better dynamic characteristics. In order to evaluate the practical applications of high power induction motor driving system in electric drive tracked vehicles, a collaborative simulation based on interface technology of Matlab/Simulink and multi-body dynamic analysis software known as RecurDyn is done, the vehicle performances are predicted in the acceleration time (0-32 km/h) and turning characteristic (v=10 km/h, R=B).

Non-destructive testing and pre-warning analysis on the quality of bolt support in deep roadways of mining districts

The bolt support quality of coal roadways is one of the important factors for the efficiency and security of coal production. By means of a self-developed technique and equipment of random non-destructive testing, non-destructive detection and pre-warning analysis on the quality of bolt support in deep roadways of mining districts were performed in a number of mining areas. The measured data were obtained in the detection instances of abnormal in-situ stress and support invalidation etc. The corresponding relation between axial bolt load variation and roadway surrounding rock deformation and stability was summarized in different mining service stages. Pre-warning technology of roadway surrounding rock stability is proposed based on the detection of axial bolt load. Meanwhile, pre-warning indicators of axial bolt load in different mining service stages are offered and some successful pre-warning cases are also illustrated.The research results show that the change rules of axial bolt load in different mining service stages are quite similar in different mining areas. The change of axial bolt load is in accord with the adjustment of surrounding rock stress, which can consequently reflect the deformation and stability state of roadway surrounding rock. Through the detection of axial bolt load in different sections of roadways, the status of real-time bolt support quality can be reflected; meanwhile, the rationality of bolt support design can be evaluated which provides reference for bolting parameters optimization.

The RCT Approach for Cell Coverage Prediction (Ⅱ): Experiment and Early Results

We study on the implementation flow of the radio computerized tomography (RCT) prediction method. A case in real cellular mobile radio (CMR) system together with the prediction results are also presented. As shown by the results, the RCT prediction method is marked for its convenience and rapidity, as well as its relative high precision even when the prediction procedure is highly simplified. Since it is developed according to the characteristics of wireless communication environments of our country and has concurrently merits from both statistical and deterministic prediction models, the RCT prediction method is in good agreement with engineering practices in cellular mobile communication in cities at home. Optimized by combining with other techniques, further improvement could be achieved in the stability and precision of the RCT prediction method which now serves as the core part of a software tool for commercial use in CMR system analysis and optimization.