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A NOx Concentration Prediction Model Based on a Sparse Regularization Stochastic Configuration Network
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作者 Aijun Yan Shenci Cao 《Instrumentation》 2024年第3期13-22,共10页
For accurate prediction of nitrogen oxides(NOx) concentration during the municipal solid waste incineration(MSWI) process, in this paper, a prediction modeling method based on a sparse regularization stochastic config... For accurate prediction of nitrogen oxides(NOx) concentration during the municipal solid waste incineration(MSWI) process, in this paper, a prediction modeling method based on a sparse regularization stochastic configuration network is proposed. The method combines Drop Connect regularization with L1 regularization. Based on the L1 regularization constraint stochastic configuration network output weights, Drop Connect regularization is applied to the input weights to introduce sparsity. A probability decay strategy based on network residuals is designed to address situations where the Drop Connect fixed drop probability affects model convergence. Finally, the generated sparse stochastic configuration network is used to establish the model, and is validated through experiments with standard datasets and actual data from an MSWI plant in Beijing. The experimental results prove that this modeling method exhibits high-precision prediction and generalization ability while effectively simplifying the model structure, which enables accurate prediction of NOx concentration. 展开更多
关键词 municipal solid waste incineration NOx concentration prediction stochastic configuration network sparse regularization
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Prediction of SO_2 Concentration in Urban Atmosphere Based on B-P Neural Network 被引量:1
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作者 姚建 王丽梅 袁野 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第11期9-11,14,共4页
Base on the principle and method of B-P neural network,the prediction model of SO2 concentration in urban atmosphere was established by using the statistical data of a city in southwest China from 1991 to 2009,so as t... Base on the principle and method of B-P neural network,the prediction model of SO2 concentration in urban atmosphere was established by using the statistical data of a city in southwest China from 1991 to 2009,so as to forecast atmospheric SO2 concentration in a city of southwest China.The results showed that B-P neural network applied in the prediction of SO2 concentration in urban atmosphere was reasonable and efficient with high accuracy and wide adaptability,so it was worthy to be popularized. 展开更多
关键词 B-P neural network SO2 concentration in urban atmospheric prediction model China
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Prediction of chlorophyll a concentration using HJ-1 satellite imagery for Xiangxi Bay in Three Gorges Reservoir 被引量:7
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作者 Dong-xing FAN Yu-ling HUANG +3 位作者 Lin-xu SONG De-fu LIU Ge ZHANG Biao ZHANG 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS CSCD 2014年第1期70-80,共11页
Since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir in 2003, algal blooms have frequently been observed in it. The chlorophyll a concentration is an important parameter for evaluating algal blooms. In this study, the ... Since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir in 2003, algal blooms have frequently been observed in it. The chlorophyll a concentration is an important parameter for evaluating algal blooms. In this study, the chlorophyll a concentration in Xiangxi Bay, in the Three Gorges Reservoir, was predicted using HJ-1 satellite imagery. Several models were established based on a correlation analysis between in situ measurements of the chlorophyll a concentration and the values obtained from satellite images of the study area from January 2010 to December 2011. Chlorophyll a concentrations in Xiangxi Bay were predicted based on the established models. The results show that the maximum correlation is between the reflectance of the band combination of B4/(B2+B3) and in situ measurements of chlorophyll a concentration. The root mean square errors of the predicted values using the linear and quadratic models are 18.49 mg/m3 and 18.52 mg/m3, respectively, and the average relative errors are 37.79% and 36.79%, respectively. The results provide a reference for water bloom prediction in typical tributaries of the Three Gorges Reservoir and contribute to large-scale remote sensing monitoring and water quality management. 展开更多
关键词 chlorophyll a concentration H J-1 satellite remote sensing prediction correlation analysis Xiangxi Bay Three Gorges Reservoir
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Clinical significance of melatonin concentrations in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis 被引量:7
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作者 Yin Jin Chun-Jing Lin +3 位作者 Le-Mei Dong Meng-Jun Chen Qiong Zhou Jian-Sheng Wu 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS 2013年第25期4066-4071,共6页
AIM: To assess the value of plasma melatonin in predicting acute pancreatitis when combined with the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation?II?(APACHEII) and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (B... AIM: To assess the value of plasma melatonin in predicting acute pancreatitis when combined with the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation?II?(APACHEII) and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems.METHODS: APACHEII and BISAP scores were calculated for 55 patients with acute physiology (AP) in the first 24 h of admission to the hospital. Additionally, morning (6:00 AM) serum melatonin concentrations were measured on the first day after admission. According to the diagnosis and treatment guidelines for acute pancreatitis in China, 42 patients suffered mild AP (MAP). The other 13 patients developed severe AP (SAP). A total of 45 healthy volunteers were used in this study as controls. The ability of melatonin and the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems to predict SAP was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The optimal melatonin cutoff concentration for SAP patients, based on the ROC curve, was used to classify the patients into either a high concentration group (34 cases) or a low concentration group (21 cases). Differences in the incidence of high scores, according to the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems, were compared between the two groups.RESULTS: The MAP patients had increased melatonin levels compared to the SAP (38.34 ng/L vs 26.77 ng/L) (P = 0.021) and control patients (38.34 ng/L vs 30.73 ng/L) (P = 0.003). There was no significant difference inmelatoninconcentrations between the SAP group and the control group. The accuracy of determining SAP based on the melatonin level, the APACHEII score and the BISAP score was 0.758, 0.872, and 0.906, respectively, according to the ROC curve. A melatonin concentration ≤ 28.74 ng/L was associated with an increased risk of developing SAP. The incidence of high scores (≥ 3) using the BISAP system was significantly higher in patients with low melatonin concentration (≤ 28.74 ng/L) compared to patients with high melatonin concentration (> 28.74 ng/L) (42.9% vs 14.7%, P = 0.02). The incidence of high APACHEII scores (≥ 10) between the two groups was not significantly different.CONCLUSION: The melatonin concentration is closely related to the severity of AP and the BISAP score. Therefore, we can evaluate the severity of disease by measuring the levels of serum melatonin. 展开更多
关键词 PANCREATITIS Melatonin concentrations predict CUTOFF Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation?II
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Prediction of oxygen concentration and temperature distribution in loose coal based on BP neural network 被引量:9
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作者 ZHANG Yong-jian WU Guo-guang XU Hong-feng MENG Xian-liang WANG Guang-you 《Mining Science and Technology》 EI CAS 2009年第2期216-219,共4页
An effective method for preventing spontaneous combustion of coal stockpiles on the ground is to control the air-flow in loose coal. In order to determine and predict accurately oxygen concentrations and temperatures ... An effective method for preventing spontaneous combustion of coal stockpiles on the ground is to control the air-flow in loose coal. In order to determine and predict accurately oxygen concentrations and temperatures within coal stockpiles, it is vital to obtain information of self-heating conditions and tendencies of spontaneous coal combustion. For laboratory conditions, we designed our own experimental equipment composed of a control-heating system, a coal column and an oxygen concentration and temperature monitoring system, for simulation of spontaneous combustion of block coal (13-25 mm) covered with fine coal (0-3 mm). A BP artificial neural network (ANN) with 150 training samples was gradually established over the course of our experiment. Heating time, relative position of measuring points, the ratio of fine coal thickness, artificial density, voidage and activation energy were selected as input variables and oxygen concentration and temperature of coal column as output variables. Then our trained network was applied to predict the trend on the untried experimental data. The results show that the oxygen concentration in the coal column could be reduced below the minimum still able to induce spontaneous combustion of coal - 6% by covering the coal pile with fine coal, which would meet the requirement to prevent spontaneous combustion of coal stockpiles. Based on the prediction of this ANN, the average errors of oxygen concentration and temperature were respectively 0.5% and 7 ℃, which meet actual tolerances. The implementation of the method would provide a practical guide in understanding the course of self-heating and spontaneous combustion of coal stockpiles. 展开更多
关键词 loose coal neural netwOrk spontaneous combustion of coal oxygen concentration TEMPERATURE predictION
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Prediction of NO_(x)concentration using modular long short-term memory neural network for municipal solid waste incineration 被引量:3
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作者 Haoshan Duan Xi Meng +1 位作者 Jian Tang Junfei Qiao 《Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2023年第4期46-57,共12页
Air pollution control poses a major problem in the implementation of municipal solid waste incineration(MSWI).Accurate prediction of nitrogen oxides(NO_(x))concentration plays an important role in efficient NO_(x)emis... Air pollution control poses a major problem in the implementation of municipal solid waste incineration(MSWI).Accurate prediction of nitrogen oxides(NO_(x))concentration plays an important role in efficient NO_(x)emission controlling.In this study,a modular long short-term memory(M-LSTM)network is developed to design an efficient prediction model for NO_(x)concentration.First,the fuzzy C means(FCM)algorithm is utilized to divide the task into several sub-tasks,aiming to realize the divide-and-conquer ability for complex task.Second,long short-term memory(LSTM)neural networks are applied to tackle corresponding sub-tasks,which can improve the prediction accuracy of the sub-networks.Third,a cooperative decision strategy is designed to guarantee the generalization performance during the testing or application stage.Finally,after being evaluated by a benchmark simulation,the proposed method is applied to a real MSWI process.And the experimental results demonstrate the considerable prediction ability of the M-LSTM network. 展开更多
关键词 Municipal solid waste incineration NO_(x)concentration prediction Modular neural network Model
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Optimizing neural networks by genetic algorithms for predicting particulate matter concentration in summer in Beijing 被引量:1
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作者 王芳 《Journal of Chongqing University》 CAS 2010年第3期117-123,共7页
We developed and tested an improved neural network to predict the average concentration of PM10(particulate matter with diameter smaller than 10 ?m) several hours in advance in summer in Beijing.A genetic algorithm op... We developed and tested an improved neural network to predict the average concentration of PM10(particulate matter with diameter smaller than 10 ?m) several hours in advance in summer in Beijing.A genetic algorithm optimization procedure for optimizing initial weights and thresholds of the neural network was also evaluated.This research was based upon the PM10 data from seven monitoring sites in Beijing urban region and meteorological observation data,which were recorded every 3 h during summer of 2002.Two neural network models were developed.Model I was built for predicting PM10 concentrations 3 h in advance while Model II for one day in advance.The predictions of both models were found to be consistent with observations.Percent errors in forecasting the numerical value were about 20.This brings us to the conclusion that short-term fluctuations of PM10 concentrations in Beijing urban region in summer are to a large extent driven by meteorological conditions.Moreover,the predicted results of Model II were compared with the ones provided by the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality(CMAQ) modeling system.The mean relative errors of both models were 0.21 and 0.26,respectively.The performance of the neural network model was similar to numerical models,when applied to short-time prediction of PM10 concentration. 展开更多
关键词 PM10 concentration neural network genetic algorithm prediction
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A Hybrid Deep Learning Approach for PM2.5 Concentration Prediction in Smart Environmental Monitoring
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作者 Minh Thanh Vo Anh HVo +1 位作者 Huong Bui Tuong Le 《Intelligent Automation & Soft Computing》 SCIE 2023年第6期3029-3041,共13页
Nowadays,air pollution is a big environmental problem in develop-ing countries.In this problem,particulate matter 2.5(PM2.5)in the air is an air pollutant.When its concentration in the air is high in developing countr... Nowadays,air pollution is a big environmental problem in develop-ing countries.In this problem,particulate matter 2.5(PM2.5)in the air is an air pollutant.When its concentration in the air is high in developing countries like Vietnam,it will harm everyone’s health.Accurate prediction of PM2.5 concentrations can help to make the correct decision in protecting the health of the citizen.This study develops a hybrid deep learning approach named PM25-CBL model for PM2.5 concentration prediction in Ho Chi Minh City,Vietnam.Firstly,this study analyzes the effects of variables on PM2.5 concentrations in Air Quality HCMC dataset.Only variables that affect the results will be selected for PM2.5 concentration prediction.Secondly,an efficient PM25-CBL model that integrates a convolutional neural network(CNN)andBidirectionalLongShort-TermMemory(Bi-LSTM)isdeveloped.This model consists of three following modules:CNN,Bi-LSTM,and Fully connected modules.Finally,this study conducts the experiment to compare the performance of our approach and several state-of-the-art deep learning models for time series prediction such as LSTM,Bi-LSTM,the combination of CNN and LSTM(CNN-LSTM),and ARIMA.The empirical results confirm that PM25-CBL model outperforms other methods for Air Quality HCMC dataset in terms of several metrics including Mean Squared Error(MSE),Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Error(MAE),and Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE). 展开更多
关键词 Time series prediction PM2.5 concentration prediction CNN Bi-LSTM network
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Research on PM_(2.5) Concentration Prediction Algorithm Based on Temporal and Spatial Features
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作者 Song Yu Chen Wang 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2023年第6期5555-5571,共17页
PM2.5 has a non-negligible impact on visibility and air quality as an important component of haze and can affect cloud formation and rainfall and thus change the climate,and it is an evaluation indicator of air pollut... PM2.5 has a non-negligible impact on visibility and air quality as an important component of haze and can affect cloud formation and rainfall and thus change the climate,and it is an evaluation indicator of air pollution level.Achieving PM2.5 concentration prediction based on relevant historical data mining can effectively improve air pollution forecasting ability and guide air pollution prevention and control.The past methods neglected the impact caused by PM2.5 flow between cities when analyzing the impact of inter-city PM2.5 concentrations,making it difficult to further improve the prediction accuracy.However,factors including geographical information such as altitude and distance and meteorological information such as wind speed and wind direction affect the flow of PM2.5 between cities,leading to the change of PM2.5 concentration in cities.So a PM2.5 directed flow graph is constructed in this paper.Geographic and meteorological data is introduced into the graph structure to simulate the spatial PM2.5 flow transmission relationship between cities.The introduction of meteorological factors like wind direction depicts the unequal flow relationship of PM2.5 between cities.Based on this,a PM2.5 concentration prediction method integrating spatial-temporal factors is proposed in this paper.A spatial feature extraction method based on weight aggregation graph attention network(WGAT)is proposed to extract the spatial correlation features of PM2.5 in the flow graph,and a multi-step PM2.5 prediction method based on attention gate control loop unit(AGRU)is proposed.The PM2.5 concentration prediction model WGAT-AGRU with fused spatiotemporal features is constructed by combining the two methods to achieve multi-step PM2.5 concentration prediction.Finally,accuracy and validity experiments are conducted on the KnowAir dataset,and the results show that the WGAT-AGRU model proposed in the paper has good performance in terms of prediction accuracy and validates the effectiveness of the model. 展开更多
关键词 Spatiotemporal fusion PM2.5 concentration prediction graph neural network recurrent neural network attention mechanism
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Multi-Scale Variation Prediction of PM2.5 Concentration Based on a Monte Carlo Method
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作者 Chen Ding Guizhi Wang Qi Liu 《Journal on Big Data》 2019年第2期55-69,共15页
Haze concentration prediction,especially PM2.5,has always been a significant focus of air quality research,which is necessary to start a deep study.Aimed at predicting the monthly average concentration of PM2.5 in Bei... Haze concentration prediction,especially PM2.5,has always been a significant focus of air quality research,which is necessary to start a deep study.Aimed at predicting the monthly average concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing,a novel method based on Monte Carlo model is conducted.In order to fully exploit the value of PM2.5 data,we take logarithmic processing of the original PM2.5 data and propose two different scales of the daily concentration and the daily chain development speed of PM2.5 respectively.The results show that these data are both approximately normal distribution.On the basis of the results,a Monte Carlo method can be applied to establish a probability model of normal distribution based on two different variables and random sampling numbers can also be generated by computer.Through a large number of simulation experiments,the average monthly concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing and the general trend of PM2.5 can be obtained.By comparing the errors between the real data and the predicted data,the Monte Carlo method is reliable in predicting the PM2.5 monthly mean concentration in the area.This study also provides a feasible method that may be applied in other studies to predict other pollutants with large scale time series data. 展开更多
关键词 Monte Carlo method random sampling PM2.5 concentration chain development speed trend prediction
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Rheological Behaviour for Polymer Melts and Concentrated Solutions Part Ⅰ:A New Multiple Reptation Model to Predict the Nonlinear Visco-elasticity with Nagai Chain Constraints in Entangled Polymer Melts 被引量:2
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作者 Mingshi SONG and Sizhu WU(Dept. of Polymer Science, Beijing University of Chemical Technology Beijing, 100029, China) 《Journal of Materials Science & Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 1995年第1期15-30,共16页
An approach of stochastically statistical mechanics and a unified molecular theory of nonlinear viscoelasticity with constraints of Nagai chain entanglement for polymer melts have been proposed. A multimode model stru... An approach of stochastically statistical mechanics and a unified molecular theory of nonlinear viscoelasticity with constraints of Nagai chain entanglement for polymer melts have been proposed. A multimode model structure for a single polymer chain with n tail segments and N reversible entanglement sites on the test polymer chain is developed. Based on the above model structure and the mechanism of molecular flow by the dynamical reorganization of entanglement sites, the probability distribution function of the end-to-end vectr for a single polymer chain at entangled state and the viscoelastic free energy of deformation for polymer melts are calculated by using the method of the stochastically statistical mechanics. The four types of stress-strain relation and the memory function are derived from this thery. The above theoretical relations are verified by the experimentaf data for various polymer melts. These relations are found to be in good agreement with the experimental results 展开更多
关键词 Rheological Behaviour for Polymer Melts and concentrated Solutions Part A New Multiple Reptation Model to predict the Nonlinear Visco-elasticity with Nagai Chain Constraints in Entangled Polymer Melts
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Quantitative Prediction of Concentrated Regions of Large and Superlarge Deposits in China
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作者 Wang Shicheng Zhao Zhenyu Wang Yutian Mineral Resources Institute of Comprehensive Information Prediction, Jilin University, Changchun 130026 《Journal of China University of Geosciences》 SCIE CSCD 2003年第3期245-249,共5页
Identification and quantitative prediction of large and superlarge mineral deposits of solid mineral resources using the mineral resource prediction theory and method with comprehensive information is carried out nati... Identification and quantitative prediction of large and superlarge mineral deposits of solid mineral resources using the mineral resource prediction theory and method with comprehensive information is carried out nationwide in China at a scale of 1∶5 000 000. Using deposit concentrated regions as the model units and concentrated mineralization anomaly regions as prediction units, the prediction is performed on GIS platform. The technical route and research method of locating large and superlarge mineral deposits and principle of compiling attribute table of independent variables and functional variables are proposed. Upon methodology study, the qualitative locating and quantitative predicting mineral deposits are carried out with quantitative theory Ⅲ and characteristic analysis, respectively, and the advantage and disadvantage of two methods are discussed. This research is significant for mineral resource prediction in ten provinces of western China. 展开更多
关键词 mineral deposit prediction quantitative prediction large ore deposits concentrated ore deposit region variable attribute table ore deposits in China
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Influence of Arctic Sea-ice Concentration on Extended-range Forecasting of Cold Events in East Asia
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作者 Chunxiang LI Guokun DAI +5 位作者 Mu MU Zhe HAN Xueying MA Zhina JIANG Jiayu ZHENG Mengbin ZHU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第12期2224-2241,共18页
Utilizing the Community Atmosphere Model,version 4,the influence of Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC)on the extended-range prediction of three simulated cold events(CEs)in East Asia is investigated.Numerical results s... Utilizing the Community Atmosphere Model,version 4,the influence of Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC)on the extended-range prediction of three simulated cold events(CEs)in East Asia is investigated.Numerical results show that the Arctic SIC is crucial for the extended-range prediction of CEs in East Asia.The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach is adopted to identify the optimal Arctic SIC perturbations with the largest influence on CE prediction on the extended-range time scale.It shows that the optimal SIC perturbations are more inclined to weaken the CEs and cause large prediction errors in the fourth pentad,as compared with random SIC perturbations under the same constraint.Further diagnosis reveals that the optimal SIC perturbations first modulate the local temperature through the diabatic process,and then influence the remote temperature by horizontal advection and vertical convection terms.Consequently,the optimal SIC perturbations trigger a warming center in East Asia through the propagation of Rossby wave trains,leading to the largest prediction uncertainty of the CEs in the fourth pentad.These results may provide scientific support for targeted observation of Arctic SIC to improve the extended-range CE prediction skill. 展开更多
关键词 cold event Arctic sea-ice concentration extended-range prediction
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Stability-mutation feature identification of Web search keywords based on keyword concentration change ratio
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作者 Hongtao LU Guanghui YE Gang LI 《Chinese Journal of Library and Information Science》 2014年第3期33-44,共12页
Purpose: The aim of this paper is to discuss how the keyword concentration change ratio(KCCR) is used while identifying the stability-mutation feature of Web search keywords during information analyses and predictions... Purpose: The aim of this paper is to discuss how the keyword concentration change ratio(KCCR) is used while identifying the stability-mutation feature of Web search keywords during information analyses and predictions.Design/methodology/approach: By introducing the stability-mutation feature of keywords and its significance, the paper describes the function of the KCCR in identifying keyword stability-mutation features. By using Ginsberg's influenza keywords, the paper shows how the KCCR can be used to identify the keyword stability-mutation feature effectively.Findings: Keyword concentration ratio has close positive correlation with the change rate of research objects retrieved by users, so from the characteristic of the 'stability-mutation' of keywords, we can understand the relationship between these keywords and certain information. In general, keywords representing for mutation fit for the objects changing in short-term, while those representing for stability are suitable for long-term changing objects. Research limitations: It is difficult to acquire the frequency of keywords, so indexes or parameters which are closely related to the true search volume are chosen for this study.Practical implications: The stability-mutation feature identification of Web search keywords can be applied to predict and analyze the information of unknown public events through observing trends of keyword concentration ratio.Originality/value: The stability-mutation feature of Web search could be quantitatively described by the keyword concentration change ratio(KCCR). Through KCCR, the authors took advantage of Ginsberg's influenza epidemic data accordingly and demonstrated how accurate and effective the method proposed in this paper was while it was used in information analyses and predictions. 展开更多
关键词 Web search Web search keyword Information analysis and prediction concentration change ratio Feature identification Influenza epidemic
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Why Are Arctic Sea Ice Concentration in September and Its Interannual Variability Well Predicted over the Barents–East Siberian Seas by CFSv2?
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作者 Yifan XIE Ke FAN Hongqing YANG 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第1期53-68,共16页
To further understand the prediction skill for the interannual variability of the sea ice concentration(SIC)in specific regions of the Arctic,this paper evaluates the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2),in p... To further understand the prediction skill for the interannual variability of the sea ice concentration(SIC)in specific regions of the Arctic,this paper evaluates the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2),in predicting the autumn SIC and its interannual variability over the Barents–East Siberian Seas(BES).It is found that CFSv2 presents much better prediction skill for the September SIC over BES than the Arctic as a whole at 1–6-month leads,and high prediction skill for the interannual variability of the SIC over BES is displayed at 1–2-month leads after removing the linear trend.CFSv2 can reasonably reproduce the relationship between the SIC over BES in September and such factors as the surface air temperature(SAT),200-hPa geopotential height,sea surface temperature(SST),and North Atlantic Oscillation.In addition,it is found that the prescribed SIC initial condition in August as an input to CFSv2 is also essential.Therefore,the above atmospheric and oceanic factors,as well as an accurate initial condition of SIC,all contribute to a high prediction skill for SIC over BES in September.Based on a statistical prediction method,the contributions from individual predictability sources are further identified.The high prediction skill of CFSv2 for the interannual variability of SIC over BES is largely attributable to its accurate predictions of the SAT and SST,as well as a better initial condition of SIC. 展开更多
关键词 sea ice concentration the Barents-East Siberian Seas Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) prediction skill predictability source atmospheric and oceanic factors initial condition
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Forecasting hourly PM_(2.5)concentrations based on decomposition-ensemble-reconstruction framework incorporating deep learning algorithms
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作者 Peilei Cai Chengyuan Zhang Jian Chai 《Data Science and Management》 2023年第1期46-54,共9页
Accurate predictions of hourly PM_(2.5)concentrations are crucial for preventing the harmful effects of air pollution.In this study,a new decomposition-ensemble framework incorporating the variational mode decompositi... Accurate predictions of hourly PM_(2.5)concentrations are crucial for preventing the harmful effects of air pollution.In this study,a new decomposition-ensemble framework incorporating the variational mode decomposition method(VMD),econometric forecasting method(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA),and deep learning techniques(convolutional neural networks(CNN)and temporal convolutional network(TCN))was developed to model the data characteristics of hourly PM_(2.5)concentrations.Taking the PM_(2.5)concentration of Lanzhou,Gansu Province,China as the sample,the empirical results demonstrated that the developed decomposition-ensemble framework is significantly superior to the benchmarks with the econometric model,machine learning models,basic deep learning models,and traditional decomposition-ensemble models,within one-,two-,or three-step-ahead.This study verified the effectiveness of the new prediction framework to capture the data patterns of PM_(2.5)concentration and can be employed as a meaningful PM_(2.5)concentrations prediction tool. 展开更多
关键词 PM_(2.5)concentration prediction Decomposition-ensemble-reconstruction framework Variational mode decomposition method Deep learning
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基于SARIMA-SVM模型的季节性PM_(2.5)浓度预测
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作者 宋英华 徐亚安 张远进 《计算机工程》 北大核心 2025年第1期51-59,共9页
空气污染是城市环境治理的主要问题之一,而PM_(2.5)是影响空气质量的重要因素。针对传统时间序列预测模型对PM_(2.5)浓度预测缺少季节性因素分析,预测精度不够高的问题,提出一种基于机器学习的季节性差分自回归滑动平均-支持向量机(SARI... 空气污染是城市环境治理的主要问题之一,而PM_(2.5)是影响空气质量的重要因素。针对传统时间序列预测模型对PM_(2.5)浓度预测缺少季节性因素分析,预测精度不够高的问题,提出一种基于机器学习的季节性差分自回归滑动平均-支持向量机(SARIMA-SVM)融合模型。该融合模型为串联型融合模型,将数据拆分为线性部分与非线性部分。SARIMA模型在差分自回归滑动平均(ARIMA)模型的基础上增加了季节性因素提取参数,能有效分析PM_(2.5)浓度数据的季节性规律变化趋势,较好地预测数据未来的线性变化趋势。结合SVM模型对预测数据的残差序列进行优化,利用滑动步长预测法确定残差序列的最优预测步长,通过网格搜索确定最优模型参数,实现对PM_(2.5)浓度数据的长期预测,同时提高整体预测精度。通过对武汉市近5年的PM_(2.5)浓度监测数据进行分析,结果表明该融合模型的预测准确率相较于单一模型有很大提升,在相同的实验环境下比单一的ARIMA、Auto ARIMA、SARIMA模型分别提升了99%、99%、98%,稳定性也更好,为PM_(2.5)浓度预测研究提供了新的思路。 展开更多
关键词 季节性差分自回归滑动平均 支持向量机 融合模型 PM_(2.5)浓度 季节性预测
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融合二次分解的深度学习模型在PM_(2.5)浓度预测中的应用
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作者 江雨燕 黄体臣 +1 位作者 甘如美江 王付宇 《安全与环境学报》 北大核心 2025年第1期296-309,共14页
针对PM_(2.5)质量浓度时间序列呈非线性难以预测的特征,为了进一步提高PM_(2.5)质量浓度预测精确度,研究通过“分而治之”先分解再预测的思想,提出一种融合二次分解的PM_(2.5)质量浓度混合预测模型(Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode De... 针对PM_(2.5)质量浓度时间序列呈非线性难以预测的特征,为了进一步提高PM_(2.5)质量浓度预测精确度,研究通过“分而治之”先分解再预测的思想,提出一种融合二次分解的PM_(2.5)质量浓度混合预测模型(Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise-Variational Mode Decomposition-Temporal Convolutional Network-Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory,CEEMDAN-VMD-TCN-BiLSTM)。该模型先由递归特征消除(Recursive Feature Elimination,RFE)进行特征筛选,随后使用自适应噪声完备集合经验模态分解(Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise,CEEMDAN)将2013—2016年北京市PM_(2.5)质量浓度序列分解为一系列高低频模态分量并计算各分量样本熵,将样本熵由K-means聚类整合为新的分量,再由变分模态分解(Variational Mode Decomposition,VMD)方法进行二次分解。最后,将所有分量先经时间卷积网络(Temporal Convolutional Network,TCN)进行特征提取,并通过双向长短期记忆网络(Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory,BiLSTM)预测,叠加各分量预测值即为最终预测结果。消融试验结果显示,该模型相比于单次CEEMDAN分解模型均方根误差E_(MAPE)降低19.312%,绝对误差E_(MAE)降低34.423%,百分比误差E_(MAPE)与希尔不等系数E_(TIC)分别减少40.465百分点和59.794%。由此可见,研究在引入VMD构成二次分解模型相比于单次分解模型的预测误差更小,精度更高,可为决策者在PM_(2.5)质量浓度预测与治理等工作提供一定参考。 展开更多
关键词 环境工程学 PM_(2.5)质量浓度预测 自适应噪声的完备经验模态分解 变分模态分解 时间卷积网络 双向长短期记忆网络
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Deep-learning architecture for PM_(2.5) concentration prediction: A review 被引量:1
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作者 Shiyun Zhou Wei Wang +2 位作者 Long Zhu Qi Qiao Yulin Kang 《Environmental Science and Ecotechnology》 SCIE 2024年第5期17-33,共17页
Accurately predicting the concentration of fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))is crucial for evaluating air pollution levels and public exposure.Recent advancements have seen a significant rise in using deep learning(DL... Accurately predicting the concentration of fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))is crucial for evaluating air pollution levels and public exposure.Recent advancements have seen a significant rise in using deep learning(DL)models for forecasting PM_(2.5) concentrations.Nonetheless,there is a lack of unified and standardized frameworks for assessing the performance of DL-based PM_(2.5) prediction models.Here we extensively reviewed those DL-based hybrid models for forecasting PM_(2.5) levels according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses(PRISMA)guidelines.We examined the similarities and differences among various DL models in predicting PM_(2.5) by comparing their complexity and effectiveness.We categorized PM_(2.5) DL methodologies into seven types based on performance and application conditions,including four types of DL-based models and three types of hybrid learning models.Our research indicates that established deep learning architectures are commonly used and respected for their efficiency.However,many of these models often fall short in terms of innovation and interpretability.Conversely,models hybrid with traditional approaches,like deterministic and statistical models,exhibit high interpretability but compromise on accuracy and speed.Besides,hybrid DL models,representing the pinnacle of innovation among the studied models,encounter issues with interpretability.We introduce a novel three-dimensional evaluation framework,i.e.,Dataset-MethodExperiment Standard(DMES)to unify and standardize the evaluation for PM_(2.5) predictions using DL models.This review provides a framework for future evaluations of DL-based models,which could inspire researchers to standardize DL model usage in PM_(2.5) prediction and improve the quality of related studies. 展开更多
关键词 PM_(2.5) concentration prediction Deep-learning based model Bibliometrics analysis Evaluation framework
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基于BOA-FRNN光谱模型的彩绘颜料浓度预测研究
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作者 刘振 樊硕 +2 位作者 刘思鲁 赵安然 刘莉 《光谱学与光谱分析》 北大核心 2025年第2期322-331,共10页
近年来,加大文物和文化遗产保护力度,加强历史文化保护传承已上升为国家战略。彩绘文物在人类活动、风沙侵蚀以及光照损伤等各种病害的影响下,文物颜料普遍出现了不同程度褪色、变色、老化、脱落丢失等病害,以致现在很难看到彩绘壁画本... 近年来,加大文物和文化遗产保护力度,加强历史文化保护传承已上升为国家战略。彩绘文物在人类活动、风沙侵蚀以及光照损伤等各种病害的影响下,文物颜料普遍出现了不同程度褪色、变色、老化、脱落丢失等病害,以致现在很难看到彩绘壁画本来的面目,数字化保护与修复成为传承彩绘文物的重要手段。本研究以颜色指纹的光谱反射率为基础,将颜料成分变化外在表现的光谱反射率作为切入点,采用数字化手段对彩绘颜料进行浓度映射。为了实现对彩绘中矿物颜料浓度快速、精确的识别,基于贝叶斯优化算法(BOA)寻找前馈回归神经网络(FRNN)的最佳超参数并构建BOA-FRNN光谱模型实现颜料成分及浓度分布图谱的预测。首先,以中国传统彩绘技法制备不同浓度梯尺的敦煌矿物颜料色卡,并利用Ci64UV积分球式分光光度计获取色卡的可见光波段光谱反射率及色度信息;其次,基于测量数据,构建颜料光谱反射率、色度值、浓度值、颜料粒径、颜料成分的关联数据库;最后,通过双常数Kubelka-Munk模型、BP网络模型、支持向量机(SVM)回归算法、FRNN网络模型和BOA优化SVM对颜料浓度进行预测并比较预测结果,为了提高颜料浓度的预测精度和模型稳定性,提出利用BOA对FRNN的网络结构、激活函数和正则化强度进行优化,以均方根误差(RMSE)作为适应度函数,通过迭代选择最优的回归参数训练模型。实验数据表明本文提出的BOA-FRNN模型精度最高,模型测试集的均方根误差RMSE为1.805%,决定系数为99.55%。结果表明:基于敦煌颜料颜色数据库能够更加准确、快捷地选取所需光谱反射率,从而提高模型效率,简化了算法复杂度;BOA寻找FRNN的最佳超参数,通过迭代更新超参数最优位置,可以快速得到全局最优解,与K-M、BP、SVM、FRNN和BOA-SVM等模型相比,矿物颜料浓度的预测准确度和模型稳定性都得到了明显提高,满足了对颜料映射的精确度要求,是快速实现颜料映射的一个可行新方法。 展开更多
关键词 彩绘文物 光谱反射率 颜料颜色数据库 光谱预测模型 浓度映射
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