A deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model for typhoon trajectory prediction to reduce flight scheduling cancellation

Natural events have had a significant impact on overall flight activity,and the aviation industry plays a vital role in helping society cope with the impact of these events.As one of the most impactful weather typhoon seasons appears and continues,airlines operating in threatened areas and passengers having travel plans during this time period will pay close attention to the development of tropical storms.This paper proposes a deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model that can improve the reliability of typhoon trajectory prediction and reduce the quantity of flight scheduling cancellation.The deep multimodal fusion module is formed by deep fusion of the feature output by multiple submodal fusion modules,and the multitask generation module uses longitude and latitude as two related tasks for simultaneous prediction.With more dependable data accuracy,problems can be analysed rapidly and more efficiently,enabling better decision-making with a proactive versus reactive posture.When multiple modalities coexist,features can be extracted from them simultaneously to supplement each other’s information.An actual case study,the typhoon Lichma that swept China in 2019,has demonstrated that the algorithm can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary flight cancellations compared to existing flight scheduling and assist the new generation of flight scheduling systems under extreme weather.

Air combat target maneuver trajectory prediction based on robust regularized Volterra series and adaptive ensemble online transfer learning

Target maneuver trajectory prediction is an important prerequisite for air combat situation awareness and maneuver decision-making.However,how to use a large amount of trajectory data generated by air combat confrontation training to achieve real-time and accurate prediction of target maneuver trajectory is an urgent problem to be solved.To solve this problem,in this paper,a hybrid algorithm based on transfer learning,online learning,ensemble learning,regularization technology,target maneuvering segmentation point recognition algorithm,and Volterra series,abbreviated as AERTrOS-Volterra is proposed.Firstly,the model makes full use of a large number of trajectory sample data generated by air combat confrontation training,and constructs a Tr-Volterra algorithm framework suitable for air combat target maneuver trajectory prediction,which realizes the extraction of effective information from the historical trajectory data.Secondly,in order to improve the real-time online prediction accuracy and robustness of the prediction model in complex electromagnetic environments,on the basis of the TrVolterra algorithm framework,a robust regularized online Sequential Volterra prediction model is proposed by integrating online learning method,regularization technology and inverse weighting calculation method based on the priori error.Finally,inspired by the preferable performance of models ensemble,ensemble learning scheme is also incorporated into our proposed algorithm,which adaptively updates the ensemble prediction model according to the performance of the model on real-time samples and the recognition results of target maneuvering segmentation points,including the adaptation of model weights;adaptation of parameters;and dynamic inclusion and removal of models.Compared with many existing time series prediction methods,the newly proposed target maneuver trajectory prediction algorithm can fully mine the prior knowledge contained in the historical data to assist the current prediction.The rationality and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm are verified by simulation on three sets of chaotic time series data sets and a set of real target maneuver trajectory data sets.

A Meta-Learning Approach for Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

The aviation industry has seen significant advancements in safety procedures over the past few decades, resulting in a steady decline in aviation deaths worldwide. However, the safety standards in General Aviation (GA) are still lower compared to those in commercial aviation. With the anticipated growth in air travel, there is an imminent need to improve operational safety in GA. One way to improve aircraft and operational safety is through trajectory prediction. Trajectory prediction plays a key role in optimizing air traffic control and improving overall flight safety. This paper proposes a meta-learning approach to predict short- to mid-term trajectories of aircraft using historical real flight data collected from multiple GA aircraft. The proposed solution brings together multiple models to improve prediction accuracy. In this paper, we are combining two models, Random Forest Regression (RFR) and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), using k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN), to output the final prediction based on the combined output of the individual models. This approach gives our model an edge over single-model predictions. We present the results of our meta-learner and evaluate its performance against individual models using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Absolute Altitude Error (AAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) evaluation metrics. The proposed methodology for aircraft trajectory forecasting is discussed in detail, accompanied by a literature review and an overview of the data preprocessing techniques used. The results demonstrate that the proposed meta-learner outperforms individual models in terms of accuracy, providing a more robust and proactive approach to improve operational safety in GA.

A Flight Trajectory Prediction Method Based on Internal Relationships between Attributes

The rapid development of the aviation industry urgently requires airspace traffic management,and flight trajectory prediction is a core component of airspace traffic management.Flight trajectory is a multidimensional time series with rich spatio-temporal characteristics,and existing flight trajectory prediction methods only target the trajectory point temporal relationships,but not the implicit interrelationships among the trajectory point attributes.In this paper,a graph convolutional network(AR-GCN)based on the intra-attribute relationships is proposed for solving the flight track prediction problem.First,the network extracts the temporal features of each attribute and fuses them with the original features of the attribute to obtain the enhanced attribute features,then extracts the implicit relationships between attributes as inter-attribute relationship features.Secondly,the enhanced attribute features are used as nodes and the inter-attribute relationship features are used as edges to construct the inter-attribute relationship graph.Finally,the graph convolutional network is used to aggregate the attribute features.Based on the full fusion of the above features,we achieved high accuracy prediction of the trajectory.In this paper,experiments are conducted on ADS-B historical track data.We compare our method with the classical method and the proposed method.Experimental results show that our method achieves significant improvement in prediction accuracy.

Motion Planning for Autonomous Driving with Real Traffic Data Validation

Accurate trajectory prediction of surrounding road users is the fundamental input for motion planning,which enables safe autonomous driving on public roads.In this paper,a safe motion planning approach is proposed based on the deep learning-based trajectory prediction method.To begin with,a trajectory prediction model is established based on the graph neural network(GNN)that is trained utilizing the INTERACTION dataset.Then,the validated trajectory prediction model is used to predict the future trajectories of surrounding road users,including pedestrians and vehicles.In addition,a GNN prediction model-enabled motion planner is developed based on the model predictive control technique.Furthermore,two driving scenarios are extracted from the INTERACTION dataset to validate and evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed motion planning approach,i.e.,merging and roundabout scenarios.The results demonstrate that the proposed method can lower the risk and improve driving safety compared with the baseline method.

Target maneuver trajectory prediction based on RBF neural network optimized by hybrid algorithm

Target maneuver trajectory prediction plays an important role in air combat situation awareness and threat assessment.To solve the problem of low prediction accuracy of the traditional prediction method and model,a target maneuver trajectory prediction model based on phase space reconstruction-radial basis function(PSR-RBF)neural network is established by combining the characteristics of trajectory with time continuity.In order to further improve the prediction performance of the model,the rival penalized competitive learning(RPCL)algorithm is introduced to determine the structure of RBF,the Levenberg-Marquardt(LM)and the hybrid algorithm of the improved particle swarm optimization(IPSO)algorithm and the k-means are introduced to optimize the parameter of RBF,and a PSR-RBF neural network is constructed.An independent method of 3D coordinates of the target maneuver trajectory is proposed,and the target manuver trajectory sample data is constructed by using the training data selected in the air combat maneuver instrument(ACMI),and the maneuver trajectory prediction model based on the PSR-RBF neural network is established.In order to verify the precision and real-time performance of the trajectory prediction model,the simulation experiment of target maneuver trajectory is performed.The results show that the prediction performance of the independent method is better,and the accuracy of the PSR-RBF prediction model proposed is better.The prediction confirms the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method and model.

NSHV trajectory prediction algorithm based on aerodynamic acceleration EMD decomposition

Aiming at the problem of gliding near space hypersonic vehicle(NSHV)trajectory prediction,a trajectory prediction method based on aerodynamic acceleration empirical mode decomposition(EMD)is proposed.The method analyzes the motion characteristics of the skipping gliding NSHV and verifies that the aerodynamic acceleration of the target has a relatively stable rule.On this basis,EMD is used to extract the trend of aerodynamic acceleration into multiple sub-items,and aggregate sub-items with similar attributes.Then,a prior basis function is set according to the aerodynamic acceleration stability rule,and the aggregated data are fitted by the basis function to predict its future state.After that,the prediction data of the aerodynamic acceleration are used to drive the system to predict the target trajectory.Finally,experiments verify the effectiveness of the method.In addition,the distribution of prediction errors in space is discussed,and the reasons are analyzed.

Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Based on Modified Interacting Multiple Model Algorithm

In order to realize the aircraft trajectory prediction,a modified interacting multiple model(M-IMM) algorithm is proposed,which is based on the performance analysis of the standard interacting multiple model(IMM) algorithm.In the proposed M-IMM algorithm,a new likelihood function is defined for the sake of updating flight mode probabilities,in which the influences of interacting to residual's mean error are taken into account and the assumption of likelihood function being a zero mean Gaussian function is discarded.Finally,the proposed M-IMM algorithm is applied to the simulation of the aircraft trajectory prediction,and the comparative studies are conducted to existing algorithms.The simulation results indicate the proposed M-IMM algorithm can predict aircraft trajectory more quickly and accurately.

A Recurrent Attention and Interaction Model for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction

The movement of pedestrians involves temporal continuity,spatial interactivity,and random diversity.As a result,pedestrian trajectory prediction is rather challenging.Most existing trajectory prediction methods tend to focus on just one aspect of these challenges,ignoring the temporal information of the trajectory and making too many assumptions.In this paper,we propose a recurrent attention and interaction(RAI)model to predict pedestrian trajectories.The RAI model consists of a temporal attention module,spatial pooling module,and randomness modeling module.The temporal attention module is proposed to assign different weights to the input sequence of a target,and reduce the speed deviation of different pedestrians.The spatial pooling module is proposed to model not only the social information of neighbors in historical frames,but also the intention of neighbors in the current time.The randomness modeling module is proposed to model the uncertainty and diversity of trajectories by introducing random noise.We conduct extensive experiments on several public datasets.The results demonstrate that our method outperforms many that are state-ofthe-art.

A Spatial-Temporal Attention Model for Human Trajectory Prediction

Human trajectory prediction is essential and promising in many related applications. This is challenging due to the uncertainty of human behaviors, which can be influenced not only by himself, but also by the surrounding environment. Recent works based on long-short term memory(LSTM) models have brought tremendous improvements on the task of trajectory prediction. However, most of them focus on the spatial influence of humans but ignore the temporal influence. In this paper, we propose a novel spatial-temporal attention(ST-Attention) model,which studies spatial and temporal affinities jointly. Specifically,we introduce an attention mechanism to extract temporal affinity,learning the importance for historical trajectory information at different time instants. To explore spatial affinity, a deep neural network is employed to measure different importance of the neighbors. Experimental results show that our method achieves competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art methods on publicly available datasets.

A Probabilistic Architecture of Long-Term Vehicle Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving

In mixed and dynamic traffic environments,accurate long-term trajectory forecasting of surrounding vehicles is one of the indispensable preconditions for autonomous vehicles to accomplish reasonable behavioral decisions and guarantee driving safety.In this paper,we propose an integrated probabilistic architecture for long-term vehicle trajectory prediction,which consists of a driving inference model(DIM)and a trajectory prediction model(TPM).The DIM is designed and employed to accurately infer the potential driving intention based on a dynamic Bayesian network.The proposed DIM incorporates the basic traffic rules and multivariate vehicle motion information.To further improve the prediction accuracy and realize uncertainty estimation,we develop a Gaussian process-based TPM,considering both the short-term prediction results of the vehicle model and the driving motion characteristics.Afterward,the effectiveness of our novel approach is demonstrated by conducting experiments on a public naturalistic driving dataset under lane-changing scenarios.The superior performance on the task of long-term trajectory prediction is presented and verified by comparing with other advanced methods.

Interaction-Aware Cut-In Trajectory Prediction and Risk Assessment in Mixed Traffic

Accurately predicting the trajectories of surrounding vehicles and assessing the collision risks are essential to avoid side and rear-end collisions caused by cut-in.To improve the safety of autonomous vehicles in the mixed traffic,this study proposes a cut-in prediction and risk assessment method with considering the interactions of multiple traffic participants.The integration of the support vector machine and Gaussian mixture model(SVM-GMM)is developed to simultaneously predict cut-in behavior and trajectory.The dimension of the input features is reduced through Chebyshev fitting to improve the training efficiency as well as the online inference performance.Based on the predicted trajectory of the cut-in vehicle and the responsive actions of the autonomous vehicles,two risk measurements are introduced to formulate the comprehensive interaction risk through the combination of Sigmoid function and Softmax function.Finally,the comparative analysis is performed to validate the proposed method using the naturalistic driving data.The results show that the proposed method can predict the trajectory with higher precision and effectively evaluate the risk level of a cut-in maneuver compared to the methods without considering interaction.

Bayonet-corpus:a trajectory prediction method based on bayonet context and bidirectional GRU

Predicting travel trajectory of vehicles can not only provide personalized services to users,but also have a certain effect on traffic guidance and traffic control.In this paper,we build a Bayonet-Corpus based on the context of traffic intersections,and use it to model a traffic network.Besides,Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit(Bi-GRU)is used to predict the sequence of traffic intersections in one single trajectory.Firstly,considering that real traffic networks are usually complex and disorder and cannot reflect the higher dimensional relationship among traffic intersections,this paper proposes a new traffic network modeling algorithm based on the context of traffic intersections:inspired by the probabilistic language model,a Bayonet-Corpus is constructed from traffic intersections in real trajectory sequence,so the high-dimensional similarity between corpus nodes can be used to measure the semantic relation of real traffic intersections.This algorithm maps vehicle trajectory nodes into a high-dimensional space vector,blocking complex structure of real traffic network and reconstructing the traffic network space.Then,the bayonets sequence in real traffic network is mapped into a matrix.Considering the trajectories sequence is bidirectional,and Bi-GRU can handle information from forward and backward simultaneously,we use Bi-GRU to bidirectionally model the trajectory matrix for the purpose of prediction.

Lane-Exchanging Driving Strategy for Autonomous Vehicle via Trajectory Prediction and Model Predictive Control

The cooperation between an autonomous vehicle and a nearby vehicle is critical to ensure driving safety in the laneexchanging scenario.The nearby vehicle trajectory needs to be predicted,from which the autonomous vehicle is controlled to prevent possible collisions.This paper proposes a lane-exchanging driving strategy for the autonomous vehicle to cooperate with the nearby vehicle by integrating vehicle trajectory prediction and motion control.A trajectory prediction method is developed to anticipate the nearby vehicle trajectory.The Gaussian mixture model(GMM),together with the vehicle kinematic model,are synthesized to predict the nearby vehicle trajectory.A potential-feldbased model predictive control(MPC)approach is utilized by the autonomous vehicle to conduct the lane-exchanging maneuver.The potential feld of the nearby vehicle is considered in the controller design for collision avoidance.On-road driving data verifcation shows that the nearby vehicle trajectory can be predicted by the proposed method.CarSim®simulations validate that the autonomous vehicle can perform the lane-exchanging maneuver and avoid the nearby vehicle using the proposed driving strategy.The autonomous vehicle can thus safely perform the laneexchanging maneuver and avoid the nearby vehicle.

Intent Inference Based Trajectory Prediction and Smooth for UAS in Low-Altitude Airspace with Geofence

In order to meet the higher accuracy requirement of trajectory prediction for Unmanned Aircraft System(UAS)in Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management(UTM),an Intent Based Trajectory Prediction and Smooth Based on Constrained State-dependent-transition Hybrid Estimation(CSDTHE-IBTPS)algorithm is proposed.Firstly,an intent inference method of UAS is constructed based on the information of ADS-B and geofence system.Moreover,a geofence layering algorithm is proposed.Secondly,the Flight Mode Change Points(FMCP)are used to define the relevant mode transition parameters and design the guard conditions,so as to generate the mode transition probability matrix and establish the continuous state-dependent-transition model.After that,the constrained Kalman filter(CKF)is applied to improve State-dependent-transition Hybrid Estimation(SDTHE)algorithm by applying equality constraint to the velocity of UAS in the straight phase and turning phase,respectively,and thus the constrained state-dependent-transition hybrid estimation(CSDTHE)algorithm is constructed.Finally,the results of intent inference and hybrid estimation are used to make trajectory prediction.Furthermore,each flight segment of trajectory is smoothed respectively by Rauch-Tung-Striebel(RTS)backward smooth method using the proposed CSDTHE-RTS algorithm,so as to obtain more accurate trajectory prediction results.The simulation shows that the proposed algorithm can reduce the errors of trajectory prediction and the time delay of intent inference.

Influence of Kinematic Analysis Parameters of Drag Anchor Trajectory Prediction Using Yield Envelope Method

Drag anchor is widely applied in offshore engineering for offshore mooring systems.The prediction of the invisible trajectory during its drag-in installation is challenging for anchor design in determining the anchor final position for ensuring sufficient holding capacity.The yield envelope method based on deep anchor failure for kinematic analysis was proposed as a promising trajectory prediction method for drag anchor.However,there is a lack of analysis on the effects of the parameters applied in the kinematic analysis.The current work studies the effects of the yield envelope parameters,anchor line bearing capacity factor and the anchor/soil interface friction.It is found that the accuracy of the yield envelope parameters has large impact on the prediction results based on deep yield envelopes.Analyses of cases with smooth fluke predict deeper embedment depth than that from analyses of cases with rough fluke.The decrease of the capacity factor results in the increase of the anchor embedment depth,the anchor line load,the anchor chain angle and the stable value of the normalized horizontal load component for the same drag length,while the stable value of the normalized vertical load component decreases when the capacity factor decreases.This illustrates the importance in applying reasonable parameters and improving the method for more reliable prediction of the anchor trajectory.

An Improved Method of Predicting Drag Anchor Trajectory Based on the Finite Element Analyses of Holding Capacity

Drag anchor is one of the most commonly used anchorage foundation types. The prediction of embedded trajectory in the process of drag anchor installation is of great importance to the safety design of mooring system. In this paper, the ultimate anchor holding capacity in the seabed soil is calculated through the established finite element model, and then the embedded motion trajectory is predicted applying the incremental calculation method. Firstly, the drag anchor initial embedded depth and inclination angle are assumed, which are regarded as the start embedded point. Secondly, in each incremental step, the incremental displacement of drag anchor is added along the parallel direction of anchor plate, so the displacement increment of drag anchor in the horizontal and vertical directions can be calculated. Thirdly, the finite element model of anchor is established considering the seabed soil and anchor interaction, and the ultimate drag anchor holding capacity at new position can be obtained. Fourthly, the angle between inverse catenary mooring line and horizontal plane at the attachment point at this increment step can be calculated through the inverse catenary equation. Finally, the incremental step is ended until the angle of drag anchor and seabed soil is zero as the ultimate embedded state condition, thus, the whole embedded trajectory of drag anchor is obtained. Meanwhile, the influences of initial parameter changes on the embedded trajectory are considered. Based on the proposed method, the prediction of drag anchor trajectory and the holding capacity of mooring position system can be provided.

Trajectory prediction model for crossing-based target selection

Background Crossing-based target selection motion may attain less error rates and higher interactive speed in some cases.Most of the research in target selection fields are focused on the analysis of the interaction results.Additionally,as trajectories play a much more important role in crossing-based target selection compared to the other interactive techniques,an ideal model for trajectories can help computer designers make predictions about interaction results during the process of target selection rather than at the end of the whole process.Methods In this paper,a trajectory prediction model for crossing based target selection tasks is proposed by taking the reference of a dynamic model theory.Results Simulation results demonstrate that our model performed well with regard to the prediction of trajectories,endpoints and hitting time for target-selection motion,and the average error of trajectories,endpoints and hitting time values were found to be 17.28%,2.73mm and 11.50%,respectively.

Forecasting Future Trajectories with an Improved Transformer Network

An increase in car ownership brings convenience to people’s life.However,it also leads to frequent traffic accidents.Precisely forecasting surrounding agents’future trajectories could effectively decrease vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian collisions.Long-short-term memory(LSTM)network is often used for vehicle trajectory prediction,but it has some shortages such as gradient explosion and low efficiency.A trajectory prediction method based on an improved Transformer network is proposed to forecast agents’future trajectories in a complex traffic environment.It realizes the transformation from sequential step processing of LSTM to parallel processing of Transformer based on attentionmechanism.To performtrajectory predictionmore efficiently,a probabilistic sparse self-attention mechanism is introduced to reduce attention complexity by reducing the number of queried values in the attention mechanism.Activate or not(ACON)activation function is adopted to select whether to activate or not,hence improving model flexibility.The proposed method is evaluated on the publicly available benchmarks nextgeneration simulation(NGSIM)and ETH/UCY.The experimental results indicate that the proposed method can accurately and efficiently predict agents’trajectories.

Tracking Pedestrians Under Occlusion in Parking Space

Many traffic accidents occur in parking lots.One of the serious safety risks is vehicle-pedestrian conflict.Moreover,with the increasing development of automatic driving and parking technology,parking safety has received significant attention from vehicle safety analysts.However,pedestrian protection in parking lots still faces many challenges.For example,the physical structure of a parking lot may be complex,and dead corners would occur when the vehicle density is high.These lead to pedestrians’sudden appearance in the vehicle’s path from an unexpected position,resulting in collision accidents in the parking lot.We advocate that besides vehicular sensing data,high-precision digital map of the parking lot,pedestrians’smart device’s sensing data,and attribute information of pedestrians can be used to detect the position of pedestrians in the parking lot.However,this subject has not been studied and explored in existing studies.Tofill this void,this paper proposes a pedestrian tracking framework integrating multiple information sources to provide pedestrian position and status information for vehicles and protect pedestrians in parking spaces.We also evaluate the proposed method through real-world experiments.The experimental results show that the proposed framework has its advantage in pedestrian attribute information extraction and positioning accuracy.It can also be used for pedestrian tracking in parking spaces.