In order to prevent and control the water inflow of mines, this paper built a new initial GM（1, 1） model to torecast the maximum water inflow according to the principle of new information. The effect of the new init...In order to prevent and control the water inflow of mines, this paper built a new initial GM（1, 1） model to torecast the maximum water inflow according to the principle of new information. The effect of the new initial GM（1, 1） model is not ideal by the concrete example. Then according to the principle of making the sum of the squares of the difference between the calculated sequences and the original sequences, an optimized GM（1, I） model was established. The result shows that this method is a new prediction method which can predict the maximum water inflow accurately. It not only conforms to the guide- line of prevention primarily, but also provides reference standards to managers on making prevention measures.展开更多
Based on the theory of grey system, established GM （1, 1） grey catastrophe predict model for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing （not the volume of water inflowing）....Based on the theory of grey system, established GM （1, 1） grey catastrophe predict model for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing （not the volume of water inflowing）. After establishing the grey predict system of the catastrophe regularity of 10 month-average volume of water inflowing, the grey forewarning for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods was established which was used to analyze water disaster in 400 meter level of Wennan Colliery. Based on residual analysis, it shows that the result of grey predict system is almost close to the actual value. And the scene actual result also shows the reliability of prediction. Both the theoretical analysis and the scene actual result indicate feasibility and reliability of the method of grey catastrophe predict system.展开更多
Based on the measurement mechanism of mobility in pressure measurement while drilling, through analyzing a large number of mobility data, it is found that under the condition of water-based mud drilling, the product o...Based on the measurement mechanism of mobility in pressure measurement while drilling, through analyzing a large number of mobility data, it is found that under the condition of water-based mud drilling, the product of mobility from pressure measurement while drilling and the viscosity of mud filtrate is infinitely close to the water phase permeability under the residual oil in relative permeability experiment. Based on this, a method converting the mobility from pressure measurement while drilling to core permeability is proposed, and the permeability based on Timur formula has been established. Application of this method in Penglai 19-9 oilfield of Bohai Sea shows:(1) Compared with the permeability calculated by the model of adjacent oilfields, the permeability calculated by this model is more consistent with the permeability calculated by core analysis.(2) Based on the new model, the correlation between the calculated mobility of well logging and the actual drilling specific productivity index bas been established. Compared with the relationship established by using the permeability model of an adjacent oilfield, the correlation of the new model is better.(3) Productivity of four directional wells was predicted, and the prediction results are in good agreement with the actual production after drilling.展开更多
文摘In order to prevent and control the water inflow of mines, this paper built a new initial GM（1, 1） model to torecast the maximum water inflow according to the principle of new information. The effect of the new initial GM（1, 1） model is not ideal by the concrete example. Then according to the principle of making the sum of the squares of the difference between the calculated sequences and the original sequences, an optimized GM（1, I） model was established. The result shows that this method is a new prediction method which can predict the maximum water inflow accurately. It not only conforms to the guide- line of prevention primarily, but also provides reference standards to managers on making prevention measures.
文摘Based on the theory of grey system, established GM （1, 1） grey catastrophe predict model for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing （not the volume of water inflowing）. After establishing the grey predict system of the catastrophe regularity of 10 month-average volume of water inflowing, the grey forewarning for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods was established which was used to analyze water disaster in 400 meter level of Wennan Colliery. Based on residual analysis, it shows that the result of grey predict system is almost close to the actual value. And the scene actual result also shows the reliability of prediction. Both the theoretical analysis and the scene actual result indicate feasibility and reliability of the method of grey catastrophe predict system.
基金Supported by the China National Science and Technology Major Project(2016ZX058-001)the CNOOC Scientific and Technological Project(CNOOC-KJ135-ZDXM36-TJ).
文摘Based on the measurement mechanism of mobility in pressure measurement while drilling, through analyzing a large number of mobility data, it is found that under the condition of water-based mud drilling, the product of mobility from pressure measurement while drilling and the viscosity of mud filtrate is infinitely close to the water phase permeability under the residual oil in relative permeability experiment. Based on this, a method converting the mobility from pressure measurement while drilling to core permeability is proposed, and the permeability based on Timur formula has been established. Application of this method in Penglai 19-9 oilfield of Bohai Sea shows:(1) Compared with the permeability calculated by the model of adjacent oilfields, the permeability calculated by this model is more consistent with the permeability calculated by core analysis.(2) Based on the new model, the correlation between the calculated mobility of well logging and the actual drilling specific productivity index bas been established. Compared with the relationship established by using the permeability model of an adjacent oilfield, the correlation of the new model is better.(3) Productivity of four directional wells was predicted, and the prediction results are in good agreement with the actual production after drilling.
