On Mao Zedong＇s Predictive Power

Mao Zedong had an amazing ability to predict, and many predictions had become reality, which made great contributions to the Chinese revolution and construction. The gifted predictive power ofMao Zedong was not baseless, and nor did it fall from the shy, which was inseparable from Mao Zedong＇s personalities. It was his product to be long engaged in the researches and investigations, the revolutionary struggle and other social practice, which was also the individual character endowed by the basic principles of the dialectical materialism and the historical materialism. The college students should cultivate their accurate predictive abilities, correctly plan their life. and rationally arrange their lives, studies and work, to contribute their youth to building the socialism with the Chinese characteristics.

A Tutorial Review of the Solar Power Curve: Regressions, Model Chains, and Their Hybridization and Probabilistic Extensions

Owing to the persisting hype in pushing toward global carbon neutrality,the study scope of atmospheric science is rapidly expanding.Among numerous trending topics,energy meteorology has been attracting the most attention hitherto.One essential skill of solar energy meteorologists is solar power curve modeling,which seeks to map irradiance and auxiliary weather variables to solar power,by statistical and/or physical means.In this regard,this tutorial review aims to deliver a complete overview of those fundamental scientific and engineering principles pertaining to the solar power curve.Solar power curves can be modeled in two primary ways,one of regression and the other of model chain.Both classes of modeling approaches,alongside their hybridization and probabilistic extensions,which allow accuracy improvement and uncertainty quantification,are scrutinized and contrasted thoroughly in this review.

Research on the IL-Bagging-DHKELM Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Algorithm Based on Error AP Clustering Analysis

With the continuous advancement of China’s“peak carbon dioxide emissions and Carbon Neutrality”process,the proportion of wind power is increasing.In the current research,aiming at the problem that the forecasting model is outdated due to the continuous updating of wind power data,a short-term wind power forecasting algorithm based on Incremental Learning-Bagging Deep Hybrid Kernel Extreme Learning Machine(IL-Bagging-DHKELM)error affinity propagation cluster analysis is proposed.The algorithm effectively combines deep hybrid kernel extreme learning machine(DHKELM)with incremental learning(IL).Firstly,an initial wind power prediction model is trained using the Bagging-DHKELM model.Secondly,Euclidean morphological distance affinity propagation AP clustering algorithm is used to cluster and analyze the prediction error of wind power obtained from the initial training model.Finally,the correlation between wind power prediction errors and Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)data is introduced as incremental updates to the initial wind power prediction model.During the incremental learning process,multiple error performance indicators are used to measure the overall model performance,thereby enabling incremental updates of wind power models.Practical examples show the method proposed in this article reduces the root mean square error of the initial model by 1.9 percentage points,indicating that this method can be better adapted to the current scenario of the continuous increase in wind power penetration rate.The accuracy and precision of wind power generation prediction are effectively improved through the method.

Short-Term Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Based on DBSCAN-SVM Data Cleaning and PSO-LSTM Model

Accurate short-termphotovoltaic(PV)power prediction helps to improve the economic efficiency of power stations and is of great significance to the arrangement of grid scheduling plans.In order to improve the accuracy of PV power prediction further,this paper proposes a data cleaning method combining density clustering and support vector machine.It constructs a short-termPVpower predictionmodel based on particle swarmoptimization(PSO)optimized Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network.Firstly,the input features are determined using Pearson’s correlation coefficient.The feature information is clustered using density-based spatial clustering of applications withnoise(DBSCAN),and then,the data in each cluster is cleanedusing support vectormachines(SVM).Secondly,the PSO is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the LSTM network to obtain the optimal network structure.Finally,different power prediction models are established,and the PV power generation prediction results are obtained.The results show that the data methods used are effective and that the PSO-LSTM power prediction model based on DBSCAN-SVM data cleaning outperforms existing typical methods,especially under non-sunny days,and that the model effectively improves the accuracy of short-term PV power prediction.

A Wind Power Prediction Framework for Distributed Power Grids

To reduce carbon emissions,clean energy is being integrated into the power system.Wind power is connected to the grid in a distributed form,but its high variability poses a challenge to grid stability.This article combines wind turbine monitoring data with numerical weather prediction(NWP)data to create a suitable wind power prediction framework for distributed grids.First,high-precision NWP of the turbine range is achieved using weather research and forecasting models(WRF),and Kriging interpolation locates predicted meteorological data at the turbine site.Then,a preliminary predicted power series is obtained based on the fan’s wind speed-power conversion curve,and historical power is reconstructed using variational mode decomposition(VMD)filtering to form input variables in chronological order.Finally,input variables of a single turbine enter the temporal convolutional network(TCN)to complete initial feature extraction,and then integrate the outputs of all TCN layers using Long Short Term Memory Networks(LSTM)to obtain power prediction sequences for all turbine positions.The proposed method was tested on a wind farm connected to a distributed power grid,and the results showed it to be superior to existing typical methods.

Research on the Control Strategy of Micro Wind-Hydrogen Coupled System Based on Wind Power Prediction and Hydrogen Storage System Charging/Discharging Regulation

This paper addresses the micro wind-hydrogen coupled system,aiming to improve the power tracking capability of micro wind farms,the regulation capability of hydrogen storage systems,and to mitigate the volatility of wind power generation.A predictive control strategy for the micro wind-hydrogen coupled system is proposed based on the ultra-short-term wind power prediction,the hydrogen storage state division interval,and the daily scheduled output of wind power generation.The control strategy maximizes the power tracking capability,the regulation capability of the hydrogen storage system,and the fluctuation of the joint output of the wind-hydrogen coupled system as the objective functions,and adaptively optimizes the control coefficients of the hydrogen storage interval and the output parameters of the system by the combined sigmoid function and particle swarm algorithm(sigmoid-PSO).Compared with the real-time control strategy,the proposed predictive control strategy can significantly improve the output tracking capability of the wind-hydrogen coupling system,minimize the gap between the actual output and the predicted output,significantly enhance the regulation capability of the hydrogen storage system,and mitigate the power output fluctuation of the wind-hydrogen integrated system,which has a broad practical application prospect.

The Short-Term Prediction ofWind Power Based on the Convolutional Graph Attention Deep Neural Network

The fluctuation of wind power affects the operating safety and power consumption of the electric power grid and restricts the grid connection of wind power on a large scale.Therefore,wind power forecasting plays a key role in improving the safety and economic benefits of the power grid.This paper proposes a wind power predicting method based on a convolutional graph attention deep neural network with multi-wind farm data.Based on the graph attention network and attention mechanism,the method extracts spatial-temporal characteristics from the data of multiple wind farms.Then,combined with a deep neural network,a convolutional graph attention deep neural network model is constructed.Finally,the model is trained with the quantile regression loss function to achieve the wind power deterministic and probabilistic prediction based on multi-wind farm spatial-temporal data.A wind power dataset in the U.S.is taken as an example to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model.Compared with the selected baseline methods,the proposed model achieves the best prediction performance.The point prediction errors(i.e.,root mean square error(RMSE)and normalized mean absolute percentage error(NMAPE))are 0.304 MW and 1.177%,respectively.And the comprehensive performance of probabilistic prediction(i.e.,con-tinuously ranked probability score(CRPS))is 0.580.Thus,the significance of multi-wind farm data and spatial-temporal feature extraction module is self-evident.

Eight predictive powers with historical and interim data for futility and efficacy analysis

When the historical data of the early phase trial and the interim data of the Phase II trial are avail-able,we should use them to give a more accurate prediction in both futility and efficacy analysis.The predictive power is an important measure of the practical utility of a proposed trial,and it is better than the classical statistical power in giving a good indication of the probability that the trial will demonstrate a positive or statistically significant outcome.In addition to the four predic-tive powers with historical and interim data available in the literature and summarized in Table 1,we discover and calculate another four predictive powers also summarized in Table 1,for one-sided hypotheses.Moreover,we calculate eight predictive powers summarized in Table 2,for the reversed hypotheses.The combination of the two tables gives us a complete picture of the pre-dictive powers with historical and interim data for futility and efficacy analysis.Furthermore,the eight predictive powers with historical and interim data are utilized to guide the futility analysis in the tamoxifen example.Finally,extensive simulations have been conducted to investigate the sensitivity analysis of priors,sample sizes,interim result and interim time on different predictive powers.

Hybrid model based on K-means++ algorithm, optimal similar day approach, and long short-term memory neural network for short-term photovoltaic power prediction

Photovoltaic(PV) power generation is characterized by randomness and intermittency due to weather changes.Consequently, large-scale PV power connections to the grid can threaten the stable operation of the power system. An effective method to resolve this problem is to accurately predict PV power. In this study, an innovative short-term hybrid prediction model(i.e., HKSL) of PV power is established. The model combines K-means++, optimal similar day approach,and long short-term memory(LSTM) network. Historical power data and meteorological factors are utilized. This model searches for the best similar day based on the results of classifying weather types. Then, the data of similar day are inputted into the LSTM network to predict PV power. The validity of the hybrid model is verified based on the datasets from a PV power station in Shandong Province, China. Four evaluation indices, mean absolute error, root mean square error(RMSE),normalized RMSE, and mean absolute deviation, are employed to assess the performance of the HKSL model. The RMSE of the proposed model compared with those of Elman, LSTM, HSE(hybrid model combining similar day approach and Elman), HSL(hybrid model combining similar day approach and LSTM), and HKSE(hybrid model combining K-means++,similar day approach, and LSTM) decreases by 66.73%, 70.22%, 65.59%, 70.51%, and 18.40%, respectively. This proves the reliability and excellent performance of the proposed hybrid model in predicting power.

Predictive direct power control of three-phase PWM rectifier based on TOGI grid voltage sensor free algorithm

In predictive direct power control(PDPC)system of three-phase pulse width modulation(PWM)rectifier,grid voltage sensor makes the whole system more complex and costly.Therefore,third-order generalized integrator(TOGI)is used to generate orthogonal signals with the same frequency to estimate the grid voltage.In addition,in view of the deviation between actual and reference power in the three-phase PWM rectifier traditional PDPC strategy,a power correction link is designed to correct the power reference value.The grid voltage sensor free algorithm based on TOGI and the corrected PDPC strategy are applied to three-phase PWM rectifier and simulated on the simulation platform.Simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively eliminate the power tracking deviation and the grid voltage.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by comparing the simulation results.

Wind Power Prediction Based on Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models

Wind power is one of the sustainable ways to generate renewable energy.In recent years,some countries have set renewables to meet future energy needs,with the primary goal of reducing emissions and promoting sustainable growth,primarily the use of wind and solar power.To achieve the prediction of wind power generation,several deep and machine learning models are constructed in this article as base models.These regression models are Deep neural network(DNN),k-nearest neighbor(KNN)regressor,long short-term memory(LSTM),averaging model,random forest(RF)regressor,bagging regressor,and gradient boosting(GB)regressor.In addition,data cleaning and data preprocessing were performed to the data.The dataset used in this study includes 4 features and 50530 instances.To accurately predict the wind power values,we propose in this paper a new optimization technique based on stochastic fractal search and particle swarm optimization(SFSPSO)to optimize the parameters of LSTM network.Five evaluation criteria were utilized to estimate the efficiency of the regression models,namely,mean absolute error(MAE),Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE),mean square error(MSE),coefficient of determination(R2),root mean squared error(RMSE).The experimental results illustrated that the proposed optimization of LSTM using SFS-PSO model achieved the best results with R2 equals 99.99%in predicting the wind power values.

Short-TermWind Power Prediction Based on Combinatorial Neural Networks

Wind power volatility not only limits the large-scale grid connection but also poses many challenges to safe grid operation.Accurate wind power prediction can mitigate the adverse effects of wind power volatility on wind power grid connections.For the characteristics of wind power antecedent data and precedent data jointly to determine the prediction accuracy of the prediction model,the short-term prediction of wind power based on a combined neural network is proposed.First,the Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM)network prediction model is constructed,and the bi-directional nature of the BiLSTM network is used to deeply mine the wind power data information and find the correlation information within the data.Secondly,to avoid the limitation of a single prediction model when the wind power changes abruptly,the Wavelet Transform-Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm-Back Propagation(WT-IAGA-BP)neural network based on the combination of the WT-IAGA-BP neural network and BiLSTM network is constructed for the short-term prediction of wind power.Finally,comparing with LSTM,BiLSTM,WT-LSTM,WT-BiLSTM,WT-IAGA-BP,and WT-IAGA-BP&LSTM prediction models,it is verified that the wind power short-term prediction model based on the combination of WT-IAGA-BP neural network and BiLSTM network has higher prediction accuracy.

Short-term photovoltaic power prediction using combined K-SVD-OMP and KELM method

For photovoltaic power prediction,a kind of sparse representation modeling method using feature extraction techniques is proposed.Firstly,all these factors affecting the photovoltaic power output are regarded as the input data of the model.Next,the dictionary learning techniques using the K-mean singular value decomposition(K-SVD)algorithm and the orthogonal matching pursuit(OMP)algorithm are used to obtain the corresponding sparse encoding based on all the input data,i.e.the initial dictionary.Then,to build the global prediction model,the sparse coding vectors are used as the input of the model of the kernel extreme learning machine(KELM).Finally,to verify the effectiveness of the combined K-SVD-OMP and KELM method,the proposed method is applied to a instance of the photovoltaic power prediction.Compared with KELM,SVM and ELM under the same conditions,experimental results show that different combined sparse representation methods achieve better prediction results,among which the combined K-SVD-OMP and KELM method shows better prediction results and modeling accuracy.

Forecasting Model of Photovoltaic Power Based on KPCA-MCS-DCNN

Accurate photovoltaic(PV)power prediction can effectively help the power sector to make rational energy planning and dispatching decisions,promote PV consumption,make full use of renewable energy and alleviate energy problems.To address this research objective,this paper proposes a prediction model based on kernel principal component analysis(KPCA),modified cuckoo search algorithm(MCS)and deep convolutional neural networks(DCNN).Firstly,KPCA is utilized to reduce the dimension of the feature,which aims to reduce the redundant input vectors.Then using MCS to optimize the parameters of DCNN.Finally,the photovoltaic power forecasting method of KPCA-MCS-DCNN is established.In order to verify the prediction performance of the proposed model,this paper selects a photovoltaic power station in China for example analysis.The results show that the new hybrid KPCA-MCS-DCNN model has higher prediction accuracy and better robustness.

Special report on relationship between wind farms and power grids

The installed capacity of a large scale wind power plant will be up to a number of hundreds MW, and the wind power is transmitted to load centers through long distance transmission lines with 220 kV, 500 kV, or 750 kV. Therefore, it is necessary not only considering the power transmission line between a wind power plant and the first connection node of the power network, but also the power network among the group of those wind power plants in a wind power base, the integration network from the base to the existed grids, as well as the distribution and consumption of the wind power generation by loads. Meanwhile, the impact of wind power stochastic fluctuation on power systems must be studied. In recent years, wind power prediction technology has been studied by the utilities and wind power plants. As a matter of fact, some European countries have used this prediction technology as a tool in national power dispatch centers and wind power companies.

Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using Fuzzy Clustering and Support Vector Regression

A sustainable production of electricity is essential for low carbon green growth in South Korea. The generation of wind power as renewable energy has been rapidly growing around the world. Undoubtedly, wind energy is unlimited in potential. However due to its own intermittency and volatility, there are difficulties in the effective harvesting of wind energy and the integration of wind power into the current electric power grid. To cope with this, many works have been done for wind speed and power forecasting. In this paper, an SVR （support vector regression） using FCM （Fuzzy C-Means） is proposed for wind speed forecasting. This paper describes the design of an FCM based SVR to increase the prediction accuracy. Proposed model was compared with ordinary SVR model using balanced and unbalanced test data. Also, multi-step ahead forecasting result was compared. Kernel parameters in SVR are adaptively determined in order to improve forecasting accuracy. An illustrative example is given by using real-world wind farm dataset. According to the experimental results, it is shown that the proposed method provides better forecasts of wind power.

Gaussian Kernel Based SVR Model for Short-Term Photovoltaic MPP Power Prediction

Predicting the power obtained at the output of the photovoltaic(PV)system is fundamental for the optimum use of the PV system.However,it varies at different times of the day depending on intermittent and nonlinear environmen-tal conditions including solar irradiation,temperature and the wind speed,Short-term power prediction is vital in PV systems to reconcile generation and demand in terms of the cost and capacity of the reserve.In this study,a Gaussian kernel based Support Vector Regression(SVR)prediction model using multiple input variables is proposed for estimating the maximum power obtained from using per-turb observation method in the different irradiation and the different temperatures for a short-term in the DC-DC boost converter at the PV system.The performance of the kernel-based prediction model depends on the availability of a suitable ker-nel function that matches the learning objective,since an unsuitable kernel func-tion or hyper parameter tuning results in significantly poor performance.In this study for thefirst time in the literature both maximum power is obtained at max-imum power point and short-term maximum power estimation is made.While evaluating the performance of the suggested model,the PV power data simulated at variable irradiations and variable temperatures for one day in the PV system simulated in MATLAB were used.The maximum power obtained from the simu-lated system at maximum irradiance was 852.6 W.The accuracy and the perfor-mance evaluation of suggested forecasting model were identified utilizing the computing error statistics such as root mean square error(RMSE)and mean square error(MSE)values.MSE and RMSE rates which obtained were 4.5566*10-04 and 0.0213 using ANN model.MSE and RMSE rates which obtained were 13.0000*10-04 and 0.0362 using SWD-FFNN model.Using SVR model,1.1548*10-05 MSE and 0.0034 RMSE rates were obtained.In the short-term maximum power prediction,SVR gave higher prediction performance according to ANN and SWD-FFNN.

Power Data Preprocessing Method of Mountain Wind Farm Based on POT-DBSCAN

Due to the frequent changes of wind speed and wind direction,the accuracy of wind turbine(WT)power prediction using traditional data preprocessing method is low.This paper proposes a data preprocessing method which combines POT with DBSCAN(POT-DBSCAN)to improve the prediction efficiency of wind power prediction model.Firstly,according to the data of WT in the normal operation condition,the power prediction model ofWT is established based on the Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)Arithmetic which is combined with the BP Neural Network(PSO-BP).Secondly,the wind-power data obtained from the supervisory control and data acquisition(SCADA)system is preprocessed by the POT-DBSCAN method.Then,the power prediction of the preprocessed data is carried out by PSO-BP model.Finally,the necessity of preprocessing is verified by the indexes.This case analysis shows that the prediction result of POT-DBSCAN preprocessing is better than that of the Quartile method.Therefore,the accuracy of data and prediction model can be improved by using this method.

Research on Wind Power Prediction Modeling Based on Adaptive Feature Entropy Fuzzy Clustering

Wind farm power prediction is proposed based on adaptive feature weight entropy fuzzy clustering algorithm.According to the fuzzy clustering method,a large number of historical data of a wind farm in Inner Mongolia are analyzed and classified.Model of adaptive entropy weight for clustering is built.Wind power prediction model based on adaptive entropy fuzzy clustering feature weights is built.Simulation results show that the proposed method could distinguish the abnormal data and forecast more accurately and compute fastly.

Research on Wind Farm Participation in Power Grid AGC Control

Since wind power has the features of being intermittent and unpredictable, and usually needs transmission over long distances, grid integration of large-scale wind power will exert signif icant influence on power grid planning and construction, and will make a heavy impact on the safe and reliable operation of power systems. To deal with the diff iculties of large scale wind power dispatch, this paper presents a new automatic generation control (AGC) scheme that involves the participation of wind farms. The scheme is based on ultra-short-term wind power forecast. The author establishes a generation output distribution optimization mode for the power system with wind farms and verif ies the feasibility of the scheme by an example.