Industrial control systems(ICSs)are widely used in various fields,and the information security problems of ICSs are increasingly serious.The existing evaluation methods fail to describe the uncertain evaluation inform...Industrial control systems(ICSs)are widely used in various fields,and the information security problems of ICSs are increasingly serious.The existing evaluation methods fail to describe the uncertain evaluation information and group evaluation information of experts.Thus,this paper introduces the probabilistic linguistic term sets(PLTSs)to model the evaluation information of experts.Meanwhile,we propose a probabilistic linguistic multi-criteria decision-making(PL-MCDM)method to solve the information security assessment problem of ICSs.Firstly,we propose a novel subscript equivalence distance measure of PLTSs to improve the existing methods.Secondly,we use the Best Worst Method(BWM)method and Criteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation(CRITIC)method to obtain the subjective weights and objective weights,which are used to derive the combined weights.Thirdly,we use the subscript equivalence distance measure method and the combined weight method to improve the probabilistic linguistic Visekriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje(PL-VIKOR)method.Finally,we apply the proposed method to solve the information security assessment problem of ICSs.When comparing with the existing methods such as the probabilistic linguistic Tomada deDecisão Iterativa Multicritério(PL-TODIM)method and probabilistic linguistic Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(PL-TOPSIS)method,the case example shows that the proposed method can provide more reasonable ranking results.By evaluating and ranking the information security level of different ICSs,managers can identify problems in time and guide their work better.展开更多
Success criteria analysis(SCA) bridges the gap between deterministic and probabilistic approaches for risk assessment of complex systems. To develop a risk model,SCA evaluates systems behaviour in response to postulat...Success criteria analysis(SCA) bridges the gap between deterministic and probabilistic approaches for risk assessment of complex systems. To develop a risk model,SCA evaluates systems behaviour in response to postulated accidents using deterministic approach to provide required information for the probabilistic model. A systematic framework is proposed in this article for extracting the front line systems success criteria. In this regard, available approaches are critically reviewed and technical challenges are discussed. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on a typical Westinghouse-type nuclear power plant. Steam generator tube rupture is selected as the postulated accident. The methodology is comprehensive and general; therefore, it can be implemented on the other types of plants and complex systems.展开更多
Probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) is important in nuclear safety review and analysis. Because the design and physics of the fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactor(FHR) differ greatly from the pressurized wat...Probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) is important in nuclear safety review and analysis. Because the design and physics of the fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactor(FHR) differ greatly from the pressurized water reactor(PWR), the methods and steps of PSA in FHR should be studied. The high-temperature gascooled reactor(HTR-PM) and sodium-cooled fast reactors have built the PSA framework, and the framework to finish the PSA analysis. The FHR is compared with the PWR, HTR-PM and sodium-cooled fast reactors from the physics, design and safety. The PSA framework of FHR is discussed. In the FHR, the fuel and coolant combination provides large thermal margins to fuel damage(hundreds of degrees centigrade). The tristructuralisotropic(TRISO) as the fuel is independent in FHR core and its failure is limited for the core. The core damage in Level 1 PSA is of lower frequency. Levels 1 and 2 PSA are combined in the FHR PSA analysis. The initiating events analysis is the beginning, and the source term analysis and the release types are the target. Finally, Level3 PSA is done.展开更多
To introduce the basic concepts of technical specification of nuclear power plant,a risk assessment and management technique based on the probabilistic safety analysis( PSA) method was proposed. The risk-informed meth...To introduce the basic concepts of technical specification of nuclear power plant,a risk assessment and management technique based on the probabilistic safety analysis( PSA) method was proposed. The risk-informed method was used,and an example was given to show how to use some specific risk metrics like CDF / LERF /ICDP / ILERP to analyze and manage the risk associated with activities in nuclear power plant operation. The advantage of this technique can be concluded from this paper,and this technique should be used more widely and deeply in nuclear industry.展开更多
Two-level system model based probabilistic steady-state and dynamic security assessment model is introduced in this paper.Uncertainties of nodal power injection caused by wind power and load demand,steady-state and dy...Two-level system model based probabilistic steady-state and dynamic security assessment model is introduced in this paper.Uncertainties of nodal power injection caused by wind power and load demand,steady-state and dynamic security constraints and transitions between system configurations in terms of failure rate and repair rate are considered in the model.Time to insecurity is used as security index.The probability distribution of time to insecurity can be obtained by solving a linear vector differential equation.The coefficients of the differential equation are expressed in terms of configuration transition rates and security transition probabilities.The model is implemented in complex system successfully for the first time by using the following effective measures:firstly,calculating configuration transition rates effectively based on component state transition rate matrix and system configuration array;secondly,calculating the probability of random nodal power injection belonging to security region effectively according to practical parts of critical boundaries of security region represented by hyper-planes;thirdly,locating non-zero elements of coefficient matrix and then implementing sparse storage of coefficient matrix effectively;finally,calculating security region off-line for on-line use.Results of probabilistic security assessment can be used to conduct operators to analyze system security effectively and take preventive control.Test results on New England 10-generators and 39-buses power system verify the reasonableness and effectiveness of the method.展开更多
In this letter,a new formulation of Lebesgue integration is used to evaluate the probabilistic static security of power system operation with uncertain renewable energy generation.The risk of power flow solutions viol...In this letter,a new formulation of Lebesgue integration is used to evaluate the probabilistic static security of power system operation with uncertain renewable energy generation.The risk of power flow solutions violating any pre-defined operation security limits is obtained by integrating a semialgebraic set composed of polynomials.With the high-order moments of historical data of renewable energy generation,the integration is reformulated as a generalized moment problem which is then relaxed to a semi-definite program(SDP).Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical examples.展开更多
提出了一种电力系统静态安全在线风险评估方法。该方法建立了计及气象因素的输电线路实时评估模型,并利用该模型求解输电线路的实时故障概率,在此基础上利用随机潮流计算所建立的风险指标。为了减小求解规模,提出了一种实时故障筛选与...提出了一种电力系统静态安全在线风险评估方法。该方法建立了计及气象因素的输电线路实时评估模型,并利用该模型求解输电线路的实时故障概率,在此基础上利用随机潮流计算所建立的风险指标。为了减小求解规模,提出了一种实时故障筛选与排序方法。按照是否考虑输电线路随机故障分为2种情况进行对比分析,New England 10机39节点系统的计算表明,所提方法能够真实评估系统当前所处的风险水平。展开更多
文摘Industrial control systems(ICSs)are widely used in various fields,and the information security problems of ICSs are increasingly serious.The existing evaluation methods fail to describe the uncertain evaluation information and group evaluation information of experts.Thus,this paper introduces the probabilistic linguistic term sets(PLTSs)to model the evaluation information of experts.Meanwhile,we propose a probabilistic linguistic multi-criteria decision-making(PL-MCDM)method to solve the information security assessment problem of ICSs.Firstly,we propose a novel subscript equivalence distance measure of PLTSs to improve the existing methods.Secondly,we use the Best Worst Method(BWM)method and Criteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation(CRITIC)method to obtain the subjective weights and objective weights,which are used to derive the combined weights.Thirdly,we use the subscript equivalence distance measure method and the combined weight method to improve the probabilistic linguistic Visekriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje(PL-VIKOR)method.Finally,we apply the proposed method to solve the information security assessment problem of ICSs.When comparing with the existing methods such as the probabilistic linguistic Tomada deDecisão Iterativa Multicritério(PL-TODIM)method and probabilistic linguistic Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(PL-TOPSIS)method,the case example shows that the proposed method can provide more reasonable ranking results.By evaluating and ranking the information security level of different ICSs,managers can identify problems in time and guide their work better.
文摘Success criteria analysis(SCA) bridges the gap between deterministic and probabilistic approaches for risk assessment of complex systems. To develop a risk model,SCA evaluates systems behaviour in response to postulated accidents using deterministic approach to provide required information for the probabilistic model. A systematic framework is proposed in this article for extracting the front line systems success criteria. In this regard, available approaches are critically reviewed and technical challenges are discussed. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on a typical Westinghouse-type nuclear power plant. Steam generator tube rupture is selected as the postulated accident. The methodology is comprehensive and general; therefore, it can be implemented on the other types of plants and complex systems.
基金Supported by Chinese Academy of Science Strategy Precursor Science and Technology Project(No.XDA0205050)
文摘Probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) is important in nuclear safety review and analysis. Because the design and physics of the fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactor(FHR) differ greatly from the pressurized water reactor(PWR), the methods and steps of PSA in FHR should be studied. The high-temperature gascooled reactor(HTR-PM) and sodium-cooled fast reactors have built the PSA framework, and the framework to finish the PSA analysis. The FHR is compared with the PWR, HTR-PM and sodium-cooled fast reactors from the physics, design and safety. The PSA framework of FHR is discussed. In the FHR, the fuel and coolant combination provides large thermal margins to fuel damage(hundreds of degrees centigrade). The tristructuralisotropic(TRISO) as the fuel is independent in FHR core and its failure is limited for the core. The core damage in Level 1 PSA is of lower frequency. Levels 1 and 2 PSA are combined in the FHR PSA analysis. The initiating events analysis is the beginning, and the source term analysis and the release types are the target. Finally, Level3 PSA is done.
文摘To introduce the basic concepts of technical specification of nuclear power plant,a risk assessment and management technique based on the probabilistic safety analysis( PSA) method was proposed. The risk-informed method was used,and an example was given to show how to use some specific risk metrics like CDF / LERF /ICDP / ILERP to analyze and manage the risk associated with activities in nuclear power plant operation. The advantage of this technique can be concluded from this paper,and this technique should be used more widely and deeply in nuclear industry.
文摘Two-level system model based probabilistic steady-state and dynamic security assessment model is introduced in this paper.Uncertainties of nodal power injection caused by wind power and load demand,steady-state and dynamic security constraints and transitions between system configurations in terms of failure rate and repair rate are considered in the model.Time to insecurity is used as security index.The probability distribution of time to insecurity can be obtained by solving a linear vector differential equation.The coefficients of the differential equation are expressed in terms of configuration transition rates and security transition probabilities.The model is implemented in complex system successfully for the first time by using the following effective measures:firstly,calculating configuration transition rates effectively based on component state transition rate matrix and system configuration array;secondly,calculating the probability of random nodal power injection belonging to security region effectively according to practical parts of critical boundaries of security region represented by hyper-planes;thirdly,locating non-zero elements of coefficient matrix and then implementing sparse storage of coefficient matrix effectively;finally,calculating security region off-line for on-line use.Results of probabilistic security assessment can be used to conduct operators to analyze system security effectively and take preventive control.Test results on New England 10-generators and 39-buses power system verify the reasonableness and effectiveness of the method.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52007163)in part by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2020M671718).
文摘In this letter,a new formulation of Lebesgue integration is used to evaluate the probabilistic static security of power system operation with uncertain renewable energy generation.The risk of power flow solutions violating any pre-defined operation security limits is obtained by integrating a semialgebraic set composed of polynomials.With the high-order moments of historical data of renewable energy generation,the integration is reformulated as a generalized moment problem which is then relaxed to a semi-definite program(SDP).Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical examples.
文摘提出了一种电力系统静态安全在线风险评估方法。该方法建立了计及气象因素的输电线路实时评估模型,并利用该模型求解输电线路的实时故障概率,在此基础上利用随机潮流计算所建立的风险指标。为了减小求解规模,提出了一种实时故障筛选与排序方法。按照是否考虑输电线路随机故障分为2种情况进行对比分析,New England 10机39节点系统的计算表明,所提方法能够真实评估系统当前所处的风险水平。
