A Bayesian network approach is presented for probabilistic safety analysis(PSA)of railway lines.The idea consists of identifying and reproducing all the elements that the train encounters when circulating along a rail...A Bayesian network approach is presented for probabilistic safety analysis(PSA)of railway lines.The idea consists of identifying and reproducing all the elements that the train encounters when circulating along a railway line,such as light and speed limit signals,tunnel or viaduct entries or exits,cuttings and embankments,acoustic sounds received in the cabin,curves,etc.In addition,since the human error is very relevant for safety evaluation,the automatic train protection(ATP)systems and the driver behaviour and its time evolution are modelled and taken into account to determine the probabilities of human errors.The nodes of the Bayesian network,their links and the associated probability tables are automatically constructed based on the line data that need to be carefully given.The conditional probability tables are reproduced by closed formulas,which facilitate the modelling and the sensitivity analysis.A sorted list of the most dangerous elements in the line is obtained,which permits making decisions about the line safety and programming maintenance operations in order to optimize them and reduce the maintenance costs substantially.The proposed methodology is illustrated by its application to several cases that include real lines such as the Palencia-Santander and the Dublin-Belfast lines.展开更多
To introduce the basic concepts of technical specification of nuclear power plant,a risk assessment and management technique based on the probabilistic safety analysis( PSA) method was proposed. The risk-informed meth...To introduce the basic concepts of technical specification of nuclear power plant,a risk assessment and management technique based on the probabilistic safety analysis( PSA) method was proposed. The risk-informed method was used,and an example was given to show how to use some specific risk metrics like CDF / LERF /ICDP / ILERP to analyze and manage the risk associated with activities in nuclear power plant operation. The advantage of this technique can be concluded from this paper,and this technique should be used more widely and deeply in nuclear industry.展开更多
文摘A Bayesian network approach is presented for probabilistic safety analysis(PSA)of railway lines.The idea consists of identifying and reproducing all the elements that the train encounters when circulating along a railway line,such as light and speed limit signals,tunnel or viaduct entries or exits,cuttings and embankments,acoustic sounds received in the cabin,curves,etc.In addition,since the human error is very relevant for safety evaluation,the automatic train protection(ATP)systems and the driver behaviour and its time evolution are modelled and taken into account to determine the probabilities of human errors.The nodes of the Bayesian network,their links and the associated probability tables are automatically constructed based on the line data that need to be carefully given.The conditional probability tables are reproduced by closed formulas,which facilitate the modelling and the sensitivity analysis.A sorted list of the most dangerous elements in the line is obtained,which permits making decisions about the line safety and programming maintenance operations in order to optimize them and reduce the maintenance costs substantially.The proposed methodology is illustrated by its application to several cases that include real lines such as the Palencia-Santander and the Dublin-Belfast lines.
文摘To introduce the basic concepts of technical specification of nuclear power plant,a risk assessment and management technique based on the probabilistic safety analysis( PSA) method was proposed. The risk-informed method was used,and an example was given to show how to use some specific risk metrics like CDF / LERF /ICDP / ILERP to analyze and manage the risk associated with activities in nuclear power plant operation. The advantage of this technique can be concluded from this paper,and this technique should be used more widely and deeply in nuclear industry.
