Probability Distribution Characteristics of Strong Nonlinear Waves Under Typhoon Conditions in the Northern South China Sea

The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.

Probability Distribution of Ratio of China Aviation Network Edge Vertices Degree and Its Evolutionary Trace Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network, the probability distribution and evolution trace of ratio of China aviation network edge vertices degree were studied based on the statistics data of China civil aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015. According to the theory and method of complex network, the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the route between cities as the edge of the network. Based on the statistical data, the ratio of edge vertices degree in China aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015 were calculated. Using the probability statistical analysis method and regression analysis approach, it was found that the ratio of edge vertices degree had linear probability distribution and the two parameters of the probability distribution had linear evolution trace.

Probability Distribution of China Aviation Network Nearest Neighbor Average Degree and Its Evolutionary Trace Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network,the probability distribution and evolution trace of node nearest neighbor average degree of China aviation network were studied based on the statistics data of China civil aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015.According to the theory and method of complex network,the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the route between cities as the edge of the network.Based on the statistical data,the nearest neighbor average degrees of nodes in China aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015 were calculated.Using the probability statistical analysis method,it was found that the nearest neighbor average degree had the probability distribution of normal function and the position parameters and scale parameters of the probability distribution had linear evolution trace.

Joint probability distribution of winds and waves from wave simulation of 20 years (1989-2008) in Bohai Bay

The joint probability distribution of wind speed and significant wave height in the Bohai Bay was investigated by comparing the Gurnbel logistic model, the Gumbel-Hougaard （GH） copula function, and the Clayton copula function. Twenty years of wind data from 1989 to 2008 were collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） database and the blended wind data of the Quick Scatterometer （QSCAT） satellite data set and re-analysis data from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）. Several typhoons were taken into account and merged with the background wind fields from the ECMWF or QSCAT/NCEP database. The 20-year data of significant wave height were calculated with the unstructured-grid version of the third-generation wind wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore （SWAN） under extreme wind process conditions. The Gumbel distribution was used for univariate and marginal distributions. The distribution parameters were estimated with the method of L-moments. Based on the marginal distributions, the joint probability distributions, the associated return periods, and the conditional probability distributions were obtained. The GH copula function was found to be optimal according to the ordinary least squares （OLS） test. The results show that wind waves are the prevailing type of wave in the Bohai Bay.

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION OF NEAR-WALL TURBULENT VELOCITY FLUCTUATIONS

By large eddy simulation （LES）, turbulent databases of channel flows at different Reynolds numbers were established. Then, the probability distribution functions of the streamwise and wall-normal velocity fluctuations were obtained and compared with the corresponding normal distributions. By hypothesis test, the deviation from the normal distribution was analyzed quantitatively. The skewness and flatness factors were also calculated. And the variations of these two factors in the viscous sublayer, buffer layer and log-law layer were discussed. Still illustrated were the relations between the probability distribution functions and the burst events-sweep of high-speed fluids and ejection of low-speed fluidsIin the viscous sub-layer, buffer layer and loglaw layer. Finally the variations of the probability distribution functions with Reynolds number were examined.

Probability Distribution Function of a Forced Passive Tracer in the Lower Stratosphere

The probability distribution function （PDF） of a passive tracer, forced by a ＂mean gradient＂, is studied. First, we take two theoretical approaches, the Lagrangian and the conditional closure formalisms, to study the PDFs of such an externally forced passive tracer. Then, we carry out numerical simulations for an idealized random flow on a sphere and for European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） stratospheric winds to test whether the mean-gradient model can be applied to studying stratospheric tracer mixing in midlatitude surf zones, in which a weak and poleward zonal-mean gradient is maintained by tracer leakage through polar and tropical mixing barriers, and whether the PDFs of tracer fluctuations in midlatitudes are consistent with the theoretical predictions. The numerical simulations show that when diffusive dissipation is balanced by the mean-gradient forcing, the PDF in the random flow and the Southern-Hemisphere PDFs in ECMWF winds show time-invariant exponential tails, consistent with theoretical predictions. In the Northern Hemisphere, the PDFs exhibit non-Gaussian tails. However, the PDF tails are not consistent with theoretical expectations. The long-term behavior of the PDF tails of the forced tracer is compared to that of a decaying tracer. It is found that the PDF tails of the decaying tracer are time-dependent, and evolve toward flatter than exponential.

A Probability Distribution of Surface Elevation for Wind Waves in Terms of the Gram-Charlier Series

Laboratory experiments are conducted to study the probability distribution of surface elevation for wind waves and the convergence is discussed of the Gram-Charlier series in describing the surface elevation distribution. Results show that the agreement between the Gram-Charlier series and the observed distribution becomes better and better as the truncated order of the series increases in a certain range, which is contrary to the phenomenon observed by Huang and Long (1980). It is also shown that the Gram-Charlier series is sensitive to the anomalies in the data set which will make the agreement worse if they are not preprocessed appropriately. Negative values of the probability distribution expressed by the Gram-Charlier series in some ranges of surface elevations are discussed, but the absolute values of the negative values as well as the ranges of their occurrence become smaller gradually as more and mote terms are included. Therefore the negative values will have no evident effect on the form of the whole surface elevation distribution when the series is truncated at higher orders. Furthermore, a simple recurrence formula is obtained to calculate the coefficients of the Gram-Charlier series in order to extend the Gram-Charlier series to high orders conveniently.

Evaluation of Probability Distribution Functions for Modeling Forest Tree Diameters on Agricultural Landscapes in Ogun State, Nigeria

The use of probability distribution functions for describing tree diameter at breast height provides useful information for forest resource evaluation and quantification. A series of probability distribution functions have been widely developed and applied for managing forest trees in conventional forest reserves without much consideration for trees outside forest reserves. The aim of this study is to evaluate and propose a suitable probability distribution function for trees in Agricultural landscapes. The study examined 3-parameter lognormal, Lognormal, 3-parameter Gamma, Gamma, 3-parameter Weibull and Weibull distribution functions, using the Maximum Likelihood method for fitting tree diameter at breast height. Three hundred and thirty-two temporary farmlands were randomly selected from which stem diameter of all living trees, with diameter ≥ 10.0 cm, were measured. Results of the statistical analysis showed that the 3-parameter lognormal distribution gave a superior description of the stem diameter with the least values of Anderson Darling (1.627) and Akaike Information Criterion (5962.0) statistics. Hence, the 3-parameter lognormal distribution function was found suitable for the stem diameter of trees in Agricultural landscapes in the study area.

Probability Distribution and Their Non-linear Relationship between Node Degree and Clustering Coefficient of Aviation Network of China Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network feature of aviation network of China,probability distribution of node degree and clustering coefficient of aviation network of China was researched according to statistics data of civil aviation of China.It was verified that node degree had power function probability distribution.Clustering coefficient of nodes with exponential function probability distribution was discovered.It was found that node degree and clustering coefficient had single peak nonlinear relationship.At the left side of the peak,there is no certain relationship between them.At the right side of the peak,clustering coefficient became smaller with the rise of node degree and there was negative exponential function relationship between them by regression analysis.

Probability Distribution of Average Length of Node Path and Its Evolution Trace of Aviation Network of China Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network feature and its evolution principle of aviation network of China,probability distribution and its evolution trace of average length of node path of aviation network of China were researched according to statistics data in years 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015 of civil aviation of China.Floyd algorithm to calculate the path length between any two nodes of network was applied and average length of node path of aviation network was obtained according to this algorithm.It was discovered that average length of node path to other nodes had normal distribution function in each year.At meantime,the location parameter and scale parameter of normal distribution function had linear evolution trace.Airline rate was an index to describe the density of airline.It was found that average length of node path of aviation network of China evolved synchronously with airline rate and they had linear relationship.

A Class of Chaotic Sequences with Gauss Probability Distribution for Radar Mask Jamming

A simple generation approach for chaotic sequences with Gauss probability distribution is proposed. Theoretical analysis and simulation based on Logistic chaotic model show that the approach is feasible and effective. The distribution characteristics of the novel chaotic sequence are comparable to that of the standard normal distribution. Its mean and variance can be changed to the desired values. The novel sequences have also good randomness. The applications for radar mask jamming are analyzed.

Multi-hazard joint probability distribution model for wind speed,wind direction and rain intensity

Multiple disasters such as strong wind and torrential rain pose great threats to civil infrastructures.However,most existing studies ignored the dependence structure between them,as well as the effect of wind direction.From the dimension of the engineering sector,this paper introduces the vine copula to model the joint probability distribution(JPD)of wind speed,wind direction and rain intensity based on the field data in Yangjiang,China during 1971–2020.First,the profiles of wind and rain in the studied area are statistically analyzed,and the original rainfall amounts are converted into short-term rain intensity.Then,the marginal distributions of individual variables and their pairwise dependence structures are built,followed by the development of the trivariate joint distribution model.The results show that the constructed vine copula-based model can well characterize the dependence structure between wind speed,wind direction and rain intensity.Meanwhile,the JPD characteristics of wind speed and rain intensity show significant variations depending on wind direction,thus the effect of wind direction cannot be neglected.The proposed JPD model will be conducive for reasonable and precise performance assessment of structures subjected to multiple hazards of wind and rain actions.

Earthquake Magnitude Probability and Gamma Distribution

The earthquake magnitude probability distribution is one of the underlying input data for certain earthquake analyses, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Nowadays, the method proposed by McGuire and Arabasz (1990) is commonly used for obtaining the (simulated) earthquake magnitude probability distributions. However, based on the observed earthquake data in 5 regions (Taiwan, Japan, California, Turkey, and Greece), the model did not fit the observation well. Instead, all of the case studies show that using the newly proposed gamma distribution can improve the simulation significantly compared to the conventional method.

Probability Distribution of Summer Daily Precipitation in the Huaihe Basin of China Based on Gamma Distribution

The probability distribution of precipitation in the Huaihe basin （HB） is analyzed with the shape and scale parameters of a Gamma distribution. The summer daily precipitation records of 158 meteorological raingauges are applied over the HB during the period of 1980-2007, and the precipitation samples are classified into unconditional rainy days and conditional rainy days which have a dry or wet preceding day over the years. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov （K-S） test and the comparison between the Gamma distribution probability density function and the sample frequency of daily precipitation records of five representative stations are conducted and analyzed. The results show that the HB is a ＂scale-dominated＂ region characterized with large scale parameters of the Gamma distribution, where rainfall is likely to exhibit large variability leading to extreme wet or dry conditions. Fklrther analysis shows that the confluence area of Sha River and Ying River within the stream between Wangjiaba dam and Bengbu station, the eastern branch of the Huaihe River （HR） between Bengbu station and the Hongze Lake, and the downstream area below the Hongze Lake, are all the areas with a high probability of large precipitation under the condition that the rainy day has a dry preceding day. The eastern part of the Yishu River watershed and the region near Wangjiaba dam are the center of a high probability of large precipitation under the condition that the rainy day has a wet preceding day. Moreover, the day following a dry preceding day has a greater probability of small rainfall. The probability distribution of summer daily precipitation of the HB is significantly skewed. The probability distribution could be more applicable if the rainy days are preceded by a dry or wet day.

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF IN-LINE WAVE FORCES ON A PILE IN IRREGULAR WAVES

The probability distribution of in-line wave forces on a pile can be mathematically summed up to that of a theory and the assumption of wave period being constant are used and the above probability distribution is simplified to that of a single dimentsion function.The probability density functions of the peak values of total wave forces on a whole vertical pile in irregular waves are derived from that of wave height which is the Rayleigh distribution(deep water wave)or the Kerohovski distribution(shallow water waves)on the base of the Morison Equation.The identification with experimental data shows that such simplification is successful.These distributions are compared with Weibull distribution and Rayleigh distribution and the result shows that the shallow water distribution of wave forces obtained here is the best one and can be used in practice.

Clustering-based probability distribution model for monthly residential building electricity consumption analysis

Electricity is now the major form of energy used in residential buildings and has seen a significant increase in usage over the past decades.One of the main features of electricity use in residential buildings is the diversity of total electricity consumption and use patterns among households.Current models may not be able to simulate and generate electricity use curves or reflect the variations accurately.To fill this gap,this research simulates electricity use curves in residential buildings with a clustering-based probability distribution model.The model extracts feature parameters to represent the electricity use level and patterns and then conducts a two-step cluster analysis to identify the distinctions of both electricity use levels and patterns.Based on the clustering results,probability distributions are fitted for all feature parameters within each sub-cluster.The model is then validated with three validation approaches.Monthly electricity consumption in households of the Jiangsu Province,China,was studied to test the performance of the model.Lastly,this paper discusses the application of this model under different spatial resolutions and analyzes the temporal-relevant model features.

Polarization Mode Dispersion Probability Distribution for Arbitrary Mode Coupling

The probability distribution of the differential group delay for arbitrary mode coupling is simulated with Monte-Carlo method. Fitting the simulation results, we obtain probability distribution function for arbitrary mode coupling.

A Heuristic Sampling Method for Maintaining the Probability Distribution

Sampling is a fundamental method for generating data subsets.As many data analysis methods are developed based on probability distributions,maintaining distributions when sampling can help to ensure good data analysis performance.However,sampling a minimum subset while maintaining probability distributions is still a problem.In this paper,we decompose a joint probability distribution into a product of conditional probabilities based on Bayesian networks and use the chi-square test to formulate a sampling problem that requires that the sampled subset pass the distribution test to ensure the distribution.Furthermore,a heuristic sampling algorithm is proposed to generate the required subset by designing two scoring functions:one based on the chi-square test and the other based on likelihood functions.Experiments on four types of datasets with a size of 60000 show that when the significant difference level,a,is set to 0.05,the algorithm can exclude 99.9%,99.0%,93.1%and 96.7%of the samples based on their Bayesian networks-ASIA,ALARM,HEPAR2,and ANDES,respectively.When subsets of the same size are sampled,the subset generated by our algorithm passes all the distribution tests and the average distribution difference is approximately 0.03;by contrast,the subsets generated by random sampling pass only 83.8%of the tests,and the average distribution difference is approximately 0.24.

Extracting classification rules based on a cumulative probability distribution approach

This paper deals with a reinforced cumulative probability distribution approach (CPDA) based method for extracting classification rules.The method includes two phases:(1) automatic generation of the membership function,and (2) use of the corresponding linguistic data to extract classification rules.The proposed method can determine suitable interval boundaries for any given dataset based on its own characteristics,and generate the fuzzy membership functions automatically.Experimental results show that the proposed method surpasses traditional methods in accuracy.

Sand particle lift-off velocity measurements and numerical simulation of mass flux distributions in a wind tunnel

Lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles in wind-blown sand located at 1.0 mm above the sand bed surface was measured using a phase Doppler particle analyzer in a wind tunnel. The results show that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity can be expressed as a lognormal function, while that of lift-off angle follows an exponential function. The probability distribution of lift-off angle conditioned for each lift-off velocity also follows an exponential function, with a slope that becomes steeper with increasing lift-off velocity. This implies that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity is strongly dependent on the lift-off angle. However, these lift-off parameters are generally treated as an independent joint probability distribution in the literature. Numerical simulations were carried out to investigate the effects of conditional versus independent joint probability distributions on the vertical sand mass flux distribution. The simulation results derived from the conditional joint probability distribution agree much better with experimental data than those from the independent ones. Thus, it is better to describe the lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles using the conditional joint probability distribution. These results improve our understanding of saltation processes in wind-blown sand.