A descriptor for the local dust storm occurrence probability constituted by meteorological factors

Based on daily data sets of 17 meteorological factors during the period of 1954-2005 for 60 gauge stations distributed over Gansu Province of China and the corresponding dust storm records, the dust storm probabilities related to different classes of each factor have been calculated and analyzed. On the basis of statistical analysis, a meteorological descriptor quantifying the daily dust storm occurrence probability for each station, which is referred to as the Dust Storm Occurrence Probability Index （DSOPI）, has been effectively established. According to the statistical characteristics of DSOPI for each station, a feasible judging criterion for a dust storm event has been determined, which can greatly contribute to forecasting dust storms and completing the unavailable historic dust storm records. Meanwhile, the average daily dust storm probability related to each factor on the dust storm day for each station has been specially analyzed in detail, finally disclosing that, in general, the more signifi- cant one factor＇s influence on dust storms, the greater its contribution to them; and each factor＇s contribution clearly varies from place to place. Moreover, on average, maximum and mean wind speeds, maximum-speed wind direction, daily sunny hours, evaporation, mean and lowest relative humidity, lowest surface air pressure and vapor pressure contribute to dust storm events in Gansu Province most greatly in order among all the 17 involved factors.

A new method of formation evaluation for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs:A case study from the Lundong area,Tarim Basin,China

The carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin are characterized by low matrix-porosity,heterogeneity and anisotropy,which make it difficult to predict and evaluate these reservoirs.The reservoir formations in Lundong area experienced a series of diagenesis and tectonic evolution stages.And secondary storage spaces such as fractures and dissolution caves were developed while nearly all the primary pores have disappeared.Based on a summary of different types of storage spaces and their responses in conventional logs,FMI and full waveform sonic logs which are sensitive to different reservoirs,the comprehensive probability index （CPI） method is applied to evaluating the reservoirs and a standard of reservoir classification is established.By comparing the evaluation results with actual welllogging results,the method has proven to be practical for formation evaluation of carbonate reservoirs,especially for the fractured carbonate reservoirs.In reservoir fluid identification,the multivariate stepwise discriminant analysis （MSDA） method is introduced.Combining the CPI method and MSDA method,comprehensive formation evaluation has been performed for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin.Additionally,on the basis of secondary pore inversion results,another new method of formation evaluation is also proposed in the discussion part of this paper.Through detailed application result analysis,the method shows a promising capability for formation evaluation of complex carbonate reservoirs dominated by various secondary pores such as holes,caves,and cracks.

Ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in surface seawater and sediment near the outlet of a zinc factory in Huludao City, Liaoning Province, China

At present, the methods widely applied to assess ecological risk of heavy metals are essentially single-point estimates in which exposure and toxicity data cannot be fully used and probabilities of adverse biological effects cannot be achieved. In this study, based on investigation of concentrations of six heavy metals(As, Hg, Pb, Cd, Cu, and Zn) in the surface seawater and sediment near the outlet of a zinc factory, located in Huludao City, Liaoning Province, China, a tiered approach consisting of several probabilistic options was used to refi ne ecological risk assessment for the individuals. A mixture of various heavy metals was detected in the surface seawater, and potential ecological risk index(PERI) was adopted to assess the potential ecological risk of heavy metals in the surface sediment. The results from all levels of aquatic ecological risk assessment in the tiered framework, ranging from comparison of single effects and exposure values to the use of distribution-based Hazard Quotient obtained through Monte Carlo simulation, are consistent with each other. Briefl y, aquatic Zn and Cu posed a clear ecological risk, while Cd, Pb, Hg, and As in the water column posed potential risk. As expected, combined ecological risk of heavy metal mixture in the surface seawater was proved signifi cantly higher than the risk caused by any individual heavy metal, calculated using the concept of total equivalent concentration. According to PERI, the severity of pollution by the six heavy metals in the surface sediment decreased in the following sequence: Cd>Hg>As>Pb>Cu>Zn, and the total heavy metals in the sediment posed a very high risk to the marine environment. This study provides a useful mathematical framework for ecological risk assessment of heavy metals.

Parentage testing anomalies in Hong Kong SAR of China

Objective To determine if there are any differences in the number of exclusions from paternity of men using an anonymous parentage testing service compared with that of men using an in-person parentage testing service provided by the same company in Hong Kong SAR of China. Methods Comparable numbers of consecutive anonymous and in-person parentage tests conducted by the same company were analyzed. Results Men using an anonymous parentage testing service were excluded from paternity at a significantly greater rate (P<0.001), compared with men using an in-person parentage test service. Conclusions The results obtained from anonymous parentage testing indicate that the number of families containing children of doubtful parentage is much greater than expected previously. As illegitimate children are known to suffer greater degrees of abuse and neglect, this finding poses serious social questions regarding the welfare of families, which the relevant authorities should acknowledge and address.

Random difference equations with subexponential innovations

We consider the random difference equations S =_d(X + S)Y and T =_dX + TY, where =_ddenotes equality in distribution, X and Y are two nonnegative random variables, and S and T on the right hand side are independent of(X, Y). Under the assumptions that X follows a subexponential distribution with a nonzero lower Karamata index, that Y takes values in [0, 1] and is not degenerate at 0 or 1, and that(X, Y) fulfills a certain dependence structure via the conditional tail probability of X given Y, we derive some asymptotic formulas for the tail probabilities of the weak solutions S and T to these equations. In doing so we also obtain some by products which are interesting in their own right.