Factors affecting farmers'choice to adopt risk management strategies:The application of multivariate and multinomial probit models

This study investigates the factors that impact farmers'adoption of risk management strategies(RMS)in Pakistan during times of uncertainty.The study examines farmers'adoption of RMS using both multinomial probit(MNP)and multivariate probit(MVP).Data were collected from 382 farmers sampled from four districts in KhyberPakhtunkhwa(KP)province of Pakistan via a multistage sampling technique.This study utilizes the MNP model,considering the assumption of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives(IIA)and incorporating correlated error terms.The objective is to understand farmers'behavior in risky situations and determine if there is heterogeneity.Results are compared with the MVP model to assess robustness and gain deeper understanding of farmers'decisionmaking processes.The research findings reveal that our results are robust,and farmers behave homogeneously in various RMS scenarios.Farmers adopt RMS individually or in combination to mitigate the adverse effects of natural calamities on their livelihood.The risk-averse farmers,who perceive weather-related risks as a threat,access credits and information,and have farms close to a river are more likely to adopt RMS,irrespective of the format of the strategies available.Moreover,the predicted probabilities and correlation of the RMS and RM categories have strengthened our model estimation.These findings provide insights into the behavior of farmers in adopting RMS which are helpful for policymakers and stakeholders in developing strategies to mitigate the impacts of natural calamities on farmers.

Layoff Factors Analysis:Evidence from 2021 China General Social Survey

This paper analyzes factors that explain company layoffs,given the individual layoff data in 2021,China.Using the Probit regression model,we find that gender inequality exists in layoffs,an employee’s work experience becomes less critical in the company’s layoff decisions,and how an employee’s health reasons affect work affects its probability of being laid off.Since we consider a significant endogeneity issue with education,using parents’education as an instrumental variable suggests that political status cannot be a significant advantage for employees to lower the chance of being laid off.Moreover,evidence implies that policymakers encouraging the pursuit of higher educational degrees can foster stability in the labor market.

Factors Affecting Adoption of Improved Rice Varieties among Rural Farm Households in Central Nepal

The use of improved high yielding crop varieties is an important avenue for reducing hunger and food insecurity in developing countries. Using cross-sectional data obtained from a survey conducted during 2013 crop season, we performed a probit model （plot-level analysis） to determine the probability of adopting new improved rice varieties （NIRVs） by smallholder farmers particularly from two main agro-ecological regions （hills and tropical plain terai regions） of Central Nepal. The results revealed that education, extension services and seed access play significant roles in adoption decisions. Additionally, farm and field characteristic variables such as farm size, endowment of favorable land type （e.g. lowlands）, and animal power （e.g. oxen） are the key factors influencing the probability of adopting NIRVs. The results showed that technology specific variables （e.g. yield potential and acceptability） are significant for explaining adoption behavior, implying that it is important to take farmers＇ preferences to varietal characteristics into consideration in the design of a research and development program. Given the significant role played by extension and access related variables, increased emphasis on information dissemination, field demonstration, and farmers＇ participatory research and training programs to popularize new rice varieties and enhance their adoption rate are required. This also suggests that policy intervention should be made on improving the educational status of farming households, and developing programs on varietal package of rice seed which offer farmers a variety of choices among the appropriate pools of germplasm. Such programs ultimately help farmers develop more profit-oriented behavior which are necessary to enhance adoption rate, production and food security in the long run.

Vegetable production under COVID-19 pandemic in China: An analysis based on the data of 526 households

The COVID-19 pandemic had an enormous impact on the vegetable supply chain in China.Effective evaluation of the pandemic’s influences on vegetable production is vital for policy settings to enhance the security of vegetable supply.Based on first-hand data from 526 households,we explored regional differences in different types of loss and potential factors affecting the severity farmer households suffered during the pandemic.The results underline that sales contraction and price volatility in the context of interruption of supply chain dominate the total losses during the pandemic.Such losses differ across provinces and are more substantial in provinces with stricter confinement measures.Farmer households’participation in local market and modern marketing methods helps mitigate the negative effects of the COVID-19 shock,while labor hiring and facilities adoption in production widen the losses due to the shortage in the workforce.In the future,the vegetable industry practitioners and relevant government departments should work together to coordinate the development of short and long supply chains and strengthen the stability and security of the vegetable supply chain.

Are vulnerable farmers more easily influenced?Heterogeneous effects of Internet use on the adoption of integrated pest management

The Internet is believed to bring more technological dividends to vulnerable farmers during the green agriculture transformation.However,this is different from the theory of skill-biased technological change,which emphasizes that individuals with higher levels of human capital and more technological endowments benefit more.This study investigates the effects of Internet use on farmers'adoption of integrated pest management(IPM),theoretically and empirically,based on a dataset containing 1015 farmers in China's Shandong Province.By exploring the perspective of rational inattention,the reasons for the heterogeneity of the effects across farmers with different endowments,i.e.,education and land size,are analyzed.The potential endogeneity issues are addressed using the endogenous switching probit model.The results reveal that:(1)although Internet use significantly positively affects farmers'adoption of IPM,vulnerable farmers do not benefit more from it.Considerable selection bias leads to an overestimation of technological dividends for vulnerable farmers;(2)different sources of technology information lead to the difference in the degree of farmers'rational inattention toward Internet information,which plays a crucial role in the heterogeneous effect of Internet use;and(3)excessive dependence on strong-tie social network information sources entraps vulnerable farmers in information cocoons,hindering their ability to reap the benefits of Internet use fully.Therefore,it is essential to promote services geared towards elderly-oriented Internet agricultural technology information and encourage farmers with strong Internet utilization skills to share technology information with other farmers actively.

Factors Hindering Pakistani Farmers' Choices Towards Adoption of Crop Insurance

This study was conducted to analyze the factors that negatively influence Pakistani farmers＇ willingness to participate in crop insurance. Probit model was applied to identify the significant factors which influenced our dependent variable ＂not willing to participate＂. The results of the analyses showed that crop insurance premium was the most influencing factor which had positive and significant impact on dependent variable. Similarly dissatisfaction with crop loan insurance scheme, lacking of knowledge about crop insurance, believing of being against Islamic rules and time taking process was also found to be positive and significantly influenced the dependent variable. While limited decision power and limited perils were not found to be significant in the results.

Intersection Related Crash Injuries: A Study on Factors Contributing to Injury Severity among Younger and Older Drivers in Summer and Winter

Older drivers and younger drivers are affected differently both in summer and winter. Different factors affect each level of severity differently;some factors affect a particular level of injury severity differently from when the same factor is analyzed for another injury severity. The goal of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to injury severity among older drivers (65+) and young drivers (16 - 25) considering two seasons namely, summer and winter at intersections. Binary ordered probit models were used to develop four models to identify the contributing factors, two models for each season, namely winter and summer. A statistical t-test has been done to identify the statistically significant variables @ 90% confidence interval. Based on the developed models, in summer, three contributing factors, driving too fast condition, rear-end crashes, and followed too close are associated with younger drivers injury severity, while two contributing factors, rear-end crashes and followed too close are associated with older drivers injury severity. In winter, five factors, made an improper turn, E Failed to Yield Right-of-Way from Traffic Signal, rear end (front to rear), gender like male and lighting condition like dark and dusk light condition, are associated with younger drivers injury severity, while three factors such as made improper turn, rear-end crashes, and followed too close are associated with older drivers injury severity. Contributing factors in summer are the same for both younger and older drivers, but different in winter for both younger and older drivers. This indicates that older drivers and younger drivers are affected differently both in summer and winter.

The impact and heterogeneity analysis of digital financial inclusion on non-farm employment of rural labor

This study examines the effects of digital financial inclusion on non-farm employment of rural labor and the mediating mechanism of innovation and entrepreneurship activity using China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)and the provincial index of digital financial inclusion.Through the empirical test of the Probit model and mediation effect model,we found that:firstly,digital financial inclusion can promote non-farm employment of rural labor,with the level of digitalization having the most significant impact;secondly,by encouraging innovation and entrepreneurial activity,digital financial inclusion can promote non-farm employment of rural labor;thirdly,the driving effect of digital financial inclusion on non-farm employment of rural labor is more pronounced among the unmarried,eastern region,and male labor.Therefore,we should improve the construction of rural digital infrastructure and accelerate the development of inclusive rural finance to promote more diversified non-farm employment options for“disadvantaged groups”;encourage and support innovation at the government level,and create a favorable atmosphere for innovation and entrepreneurship.Simultaneously,farmers’digital literacy and financial knowledge should be improved so that more can adopt and take advantage of digital financial inclusion.

An Application of ＇Willingness to Pay＇ Method as a Quantifier for Environmental Impact Assessment

The preservation/restoration of natural environment is frequently entailing excessive cost （paid by people through taxation） while it is a source of additional income for both, the State and the people, due to tourism. Since the evaluation of this good cannot be in market terms, it is applied here in a modified version of the CVM （Contingent Valuation Method）, which is used in experimental economics in order to investigate the significance that people put on this good and how much they might be WTP （Willing to Pay） for supporting activities concerning the preservation/restoration of Lake Kastoria. The WTP dependence on （i） external diseconomies; （ii） the expectations for property values＇ rise as a result of the restoration; （iii） the proximity of interviewees＇ residence to the lake; （iv） the opinion of the interviewee on the time and money spent to visit the lake; （v） the time and money the interviewees spent to visit the lake, as well as other dependencies （all taken as independent variables） are estimated by means oflogit, probit, logistic and linear regression models. The optimal concentration Copt of a pollutant in the environment can be determined as an equilibrium point in the tradeoff between （i） environmental cost, due to impact on man/ecosystem/economy; and （ii） economic cost for environmental protection, as it can be expressed by Pigouvian tax. These two conflict variables are internalized within the same techno-economic objective function of total cost, which is minimized. In this work, the first conflict variable is represented by a WTP index. A methodology is developed for the estimation of this index by using fuzzy sets to count for uncertainty. Implementation of this methodology is presented, concerning odor pollution of air round an olive pomace oil mill.

Discovering Niche Market： Consumer Preferences and Willingness to Pay for Organic Pork

With the concern for environmental quality and food safety, organic food products are becoming more important in the global market. In recent years the organic food industry has been expanding and sales of organic products have been increasing. Abundant studies have been done focusing on organic fruits and vegetables which focused on the shortage of organic live stocks. In this paper we focus our attention on organic pork products. Using a sample of 400 Thais consumers, this study proposes the contingent valuation （CV） technique to measure the willingness of individuals to pay a price premium for organic pork in Thailand. In order to obtain the mean ＂willingness to pay＂ （WTP）, a bivariate probit model was applied to provide information about the crucial variables that affect the WTP. The study revealed that variables that better approximate WTP are based on the lifestyle and knowledge about organic foods rather than the usual socioeconomic factors. The mean WTP on the premium price for organic pork is approximately 34.30 Bath per kg. In order to access the market potential this study shows that the suitable attributes of organic pork which is consistent with consumer preferences are composed of modernized and environmental packaging with special product details. Marketing this product to the buyer it should be set at a reasonable price. Stimulating the market should be done by doing sales promotion and public relations on a regularly basis. In addition, organic pork should be available in any places and convenient for customers to buy.

Analysis and O-D Demand Estimation of a Public Bike-Sharing Program in Las Vegas

Bike-share systems are an effective way of mitigating congestion on the road. In addition, bike-share systems have been built in universities to serve for trips to work/commuting as well as the trips on campus. In Las Vegas, a bike-share system was proposed at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. This study analyzed factors that influence the usage of bike-share program and estimated the origin-destination demand. To achieve these objectives, first, a literature review was conducted on university bike-sharing systems in the U.S. and abroad. Then, a survey with a questionnaire was distributed to UNLV to obtain the users’ preferences to the locations of the proposed bike-share stations and their likelihood and frequency to use the bike-share program. In total, 241 faculty, staff, and students responded to the survey. About 50% of those participating in the survey expressed willingness to use the bike-share system for commuting and 60% said they are willing to use bike share for on-campus travel. Commuting and on-campus travel are two different types of travel, and the factors to determine whether an individual would use the bike-share system are quite different for each. It was estimated that there would be 3450 members for a bike-share program at UNLV, each making bicycle trips with varying frequencies, producing 1966 trips per day.

Calibrating the Level of Capital： The Way We See It

This paper aims to propose a framework for estimating the optimal levels of capital at banks, elaborating factors such as liquidity and macroeconomic conditions. Firstly, as a preamble, the authors attempt to reorganize the variety of policy proposals for enhancing financial sector regulation. In light of the broad perspective of the prudential policy framework, the authors discuss the role of bank capital in enhancing banking-sector resilience. Secondly, the authors lay out an early warning system （EWS） to predict a financial crisis where the role of capital and liquidity are explicitly captured. Then, the authors apply the EWS as a component of a cost-benefit analysis （CBA） to gauge the benefit from raising capital and liquidity requirements, as more stringent regulations are expected to reduce the probability of financial ,crisis. On the other hand, financial-sector regulations should come along with certain costs. To quantify the cost, the authors employ some existing macroeconomic models to estimate the cost of raising capital and liquidity requirements. Combining the EWS （for benefit calculation） with the macroeconomic models （for cost calculation）, the authors provide a full-fledged CBA framework that can detemaine the optimal levels of capital that strike the right balance between the costs and benefits of the financial-sector regulation. The main results indicate that the optimal level of bank capital would considerably vary depending on the level of liquidity indicators both on the asset and liability sides of banks＇ balance sheets as well as macroeconomic conditions, typically represented by housing market inflation. Finally, the CBA framework suggests that banks could stand in a better shape with a counter-cyclical capital buffer to be well-prepared for a prospective distress.

How Financial Knowledge Affect Household Wealth

This paper is based on the research conducted in Shanghai. We use Probit model empirically analysis how tinanclal hteracy affect household wealth. The results are as follows： financial literacy does have positive effects on household financial wealth and debt, but do not have significant effect on fixed wealth. Age growth, household income growth, self-owned house and seeking for financial consultant will significantly boost household wealth. Moreover, consumer＇ s self-confidence and risk aversion have positive effects on both fixed and financial assets, but do not have significant effect on debt.

How Financial Literacy Affect Household Wealth

This paper is based on the research conducted in Shanghai. We use Probit model empirically analysis how financial literacy affect household wealth. The results are as follows： financial literacy does have positive effects on household financial wealth and debt, but do not have significant effect on fixed wealth. Age growth, household income growth, self-owned house and seeking for financial consultant will significantly boost household wealth. Moreover, consumer＇ s self-confidence and risk aversion have positive effects on both fixed and financial assets, but do not have significant effect on debt.

Estimating the Fresh Vegetables Demand System in Jordan： A Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System

The main objective of this research is to estimate the different types of demand elasticities for the main fresh vegetables consumed in Jordan. The estimated elasticities can be used to measure the impacts of agricultural policies and can be used to predict future consumption in the context of food security in terms of access, availability, stability, and food quality. The reported demand estimates were obtained through the estimation of a Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand Systems （LA/AIDS） for Jordan fresh vegetable crops demand system using the most recent cross-sectional data of household expenditure survey in 2005. A censored regression method for the system of equations was used to analyze fresh vegetables consumption patterns. This method allows for inclusion of a large number of zero consumption for some foods through two-step demand system estimation. All of the own-price demand elasticities have the correct negative signs and statistically significant. According to the expenditure elasticity, tomato, cucumber, and potato are the necessity goods. The mean budget shares indicate that consumers spend 30 percent of their allocated budget to vegetables on tomatoes and potatoes. The green bean elasticity is the highest indicating that demand for beans is highly responsive to any changes in the price. The expenditure elasticities reveal that the demand on all vegetables is expected to grow over the coming few years. High own-price elasticities of all vegetables studied suggests that any changes in the prices of these crops could bring about a significant shift in fruits and vegetable constanption patterns.

Empirical research on drive mechanism of firms' environmental management

Firms’transformation from passive envrionmental management to active environmental management is thekey to solving environmental problems. This paper empirically studies the impact of environmental management incen-tives on environmental management through model construction. Based on the data and reality of China, we can build aconcept model of environmental management driving mechanism, and put forward theoretical hypothesis that can betested: take the 13 environmental management behaviors (EMBs) as substitute of the comprehensiveness, introducecounting variables, and use NB model, Possion Model and Ordered Probit model the regression analysis. The theory andmethods brought forward in this paper will provide references for firms in China to further implement voluntaryenvironmental management, and offer advises and countermeasures for leaders to implement environmental manage-ment effectively.

Investigating safety and liability of autonomous vehicles:Bayesian random parameter ordered probit model analysis

Purpose–This study aims to investigate the safety and liability of autonomous vehicles(AVs),and identify the contributing factors quantitatively so as to provide potential insights on safety and liability of AVs.Design/methodology/approach–The actual crash data were obtained from California DMV and Sohu websites involved in collisions of AVs from 2015 to 2021 with 210 observations.The Bayesian random parameter ordered probit model was proposed to reflect the safety and liability of AVs,respectively,as well as accommodating the heterogeneity issue simultaneously.Findings–The findings show that day,location and crash type were significant factors of injury severity while location and crash reason were significant influencing the liability.Originality/value–The results provide meaningful countermeasures to support the policymakers or practitioners making strategies or regulations about AV safety and liability.

Onsetof Emerging Market Crises with Probit Model

：This paper examines the relative strength of factors in predicting the onset of a financial crisis inthe emerging market during the 1990s. We estimate a probit model based on the quarterly data of 18countries. The results suggest that the mis-management in the economy and banking system, the shifts inthe international conditions and the depth of contagion effects are strongly associated with the presence ofcrises. Some of the results are somewhat different from the other empirical studies based on annual data. Acareful analysis of the probability distributions showed that the results were close to being correct in over90% of the cases.

Which Factors Influence the Effect of Deep Synthesized Video Propagation

Deep synthesis technology is an emerging artificial intelligence technology.There have been a large number of audio and video contents based on deep synthesis technology spreading in the Internet.In this paper,we take the deep synthetic videos on YouTube platform as the research object,and investigate the factors influencing the propagation effect of deep synthetic videos by establishing an ordered probit model.It is found that the effect of deep synthesized video transmission of YouTube platform is mainly influenced by factors such as the video type,video duration,influence of publishers and forms of fraud.In addition,the comparative analysis of ordinary video and in-depth synthesized video reveals that both the video transmission effect are significantly affected by the video type,video duration and the influence of publishers.

Investigating crash injury severity at unsignalized intersections in Heilongjiang Province,China

Many studies suggest that more crashes occur due to mixed traffic flow at unsignalized intersections. However, very little is known about the injury severity of these crashes. The objective of this study is therefore to investigate how contributory factors affect crash injury severity at unsignalized intersections. The dataset used for this analysis derived from police crash reports from Dec. 2006 to Apr. 2009 in Heilongjiang Province, China. An ordered probit model was developed to predict the probability that the injury severity of a crash will be one of four levels ： no injury, slight injury, severe injury, and fatal injury. The injury severity of a crash was evaluated in terms of the most severe injury sustained by any person involved in the crash. Results from the present study showed that different factors had varying effects on crash injury severity. Factors found to result in the increased probability of serious injuries include adverse weather, sideswiping with pedestrians on poor surface, the interaction of rear-ends and the third-class highway, winter night without illumination, and the interaction between traffic signs or markings and the third-class highway. Although there are some limitations in the current study, this study provides more insights into crash injury severity at unsignalized intersections.