Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains...Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect given its importance to institutions and climate services capacity, to better understand intricate facets of the development and the integration of climate services into disaster risk management.展开更多
A cross-sectional exploratory assessment of the needs and challenges of petroleum industry in Nigeria, in assessing process safety cumulative risk for major accidents prevention was investigated. A purposive cum rando...A cross-sectional exploratory assessment of the needs and challenges of petroleum industry in Nigeria, in assessing process safety cumulative risk for major accidents prevention was investigated. A purposive cum random sampling technique was used in this study, among selected petroleum companies operating in Nigeria. Survey questionnaires were received from 216 participants made up of asset integrity engineers/operators, process safety experts, production safety professionals in the petroleum industry in Nigeria. Data analyses were carried out to cover descriptive and inferential statistics. Overall, the study recognized that assessing process safety cumulative risk is not a simple process due largely to the changing nature of safety critical barriers degradation data. The study result showed four main challenges faced by petroleum industries in Nigeria, in assessing process safety cumulative risk: 1) the study showed that 94% of the respondents agreed that there is limited accessibility to safety critical barriers degradation data (little automation). Also 2) 94% of the respondents accounted for poor knowledge of process safety cumulative risk is and agreed it to be of low rating. The result further showed that 3) 90% of the respondents demonstrated that there are no guidance and procedures in assessing process safety cumulative risk and finally 4) 92% of the respondents reported that there is no real-time risk visualization model/ tool. Addressing these issues and challenges by the petroleum industries in the study area, will lead to successful assessment of process safety cumulative risk, thereby reducing the risk of major accidents.展开更多
This study investigated the groundwater quality and health risks associated with informal e-waste processing in the Alaba International Market in Lagos, Nigeria. Twenty-two groundwater samples were collected from hand...This study investigated the groundwater quality and health risks associated with informal e-waste processing in the Alaba International Market in Lagos, Nigeria. Twenty-two groundwater samples were collected from hand-dug wells in the market area and analyzed for physicochemical properties and heavy metal concentrations. The results showed that the groundwater quality was poor, with high levels of heavy metals, including cadmium, lead, and chromium. The health index (HI) for children and adults was above the tolerable threshold levels, indicating a potential health risk to the population. Principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to identify the sources of metals in groundwater, and the results showed that informal e-waste processing was a significant source of contamination. The study highlights the need for effective management strategies to mitigate the potential health risks associated with informal e-waste processing and ensure public health and environmental safety.展开更多
Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) is one of the major ingredients for the development of efficient software systems within a time frame and low-cost involvement. From the literature, it is evident that there are ...Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) is one of the major ingredients for the development of efficient software systems within a time frame and low-cost involvement. From the literature, it is evident that there are various kinds of process models that are used by the software industries for the development of small, medium and long-term software projects, but many of them do not cover risk management. It is quite obvious that the improper selection of the software development process model leads to failure of the software products as it is time bound activity. In the present work, a new software development process model is proposed which covers the risks at any stage of the development of the software product. The model is named a Hemant-Vipin (HV) process model and may be helpful for the software industries for development of the efficient software products and timely delivery at the end of the client. The efficiency of the HV process model is observed by considering various kinds of factors like requirement clarity, user feedback, change agility, predictability, risk identification, practical implementation, customer satisfaction, incremental development, use of ready-made components, quick design, resource organization and many more and found through a case study that the presented approach covers many of parameters in comparison of the existing process models. .展开更多
In this paper,a class of risk processes perturbed by diffusion are considered. The Lundberg inequalities for the ruin probability are obtained.The size of the Lundberg exponents for different kinds of risk model is co...In this paper,a class of risk processes perturbed by diffusion are considered. The Lundberg inequalities for the ruin probability are obtained.The size of the Lundberg exponents for different kinds of risk model is compared. The numerical illustration for the impact of the parameters on the ruin probability is given.展开更多
In operation,risk arising from power transformer faults is of much uncertainty and complicacy.To timely and objectively control the risks,a transformer risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(...In operation,risk arising from power transformer faults is of much uncertainty and complicacy.To timely and objectively control the risks,a transformer risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) and artificial neural network(ANN) from the perspective of accuracy and quickness is proposed.An analytic hierarchy process model for the transformer risk assessment is built by analysis of the risk factors affecting the transformer risk level and the weight relation of each risk factor in transformer risk calculation is analyzed by application of fuzzy consistency judgment matrix;with utilization of adaptive ability and nonlinear mapping ability of the ANN,the risk factors with large weights are used as input of neutral network,and thus intelligent quantitative assessment of transformer risk is realized.The simulation result shows that the proposed method increases the speed and accuracy of the risk assessment and can provide feasible decision basis for the transformer risk management and maintenance decisions.展开更多
This paper studies a Sparre Andersen negative risk sums model in which the distribution of "interclaim" time is that of a sum of n independent exponential random variables. Thus, the Erlang(n) model is a special c...This paper studies a Sparre Andersen negative risk sums model in which the distribution of "interclaim" time is that of a sum of n independent exponential random variables. Thus, the Erlang(n) model is a special case. On this basis the correlated negative risk sums process with the common Erlang process is considered. Integro-differential equations with boundary conditions for ψ(u) are given. For some special cases a closed-form expression for ψ(u) is derived.展开更多
In this article, the risk process perturbed by diffusion under interest force is considered, the continuity and twice continuous differentiability for Фδ(u,w) are discussed,the Feller expression and the integro-di...In this article, the risk process perturbed by diffusion under interest force is considered, the continuity and twice continuous differentiability for Фδ(u,w) are discussed,the Feller expression and the integro-differential equation satisfied by Фδ (u ,w) are derived. Finally, the decomposition of Фδ(u,w) is discussed, and some properties of each decomposed part of Фδ(u,w) are obtained. The results can be reduced to some ones in Gerber and Landry's,Tsai and Willmot's, and Wang's works by letting parameter δ and (or) a be zero.展开更多
Managing TG-51 reference dosimetry in a large hospital network can be a challenging task. The objectives of this study are to investigate the effectiveness of using Statistical Process Control (SPC) to manage TG-51 wo...Managing TG-51 reference dosimetry in a large hospital network can be a challenging task. The objectives of this study are to investigate the effectiveness of using Statistical Process Control (SPC) to manage TG-51 workflow in such a network. All the sites in the network performed the annual reference dosimetry in water according to TG-51. These data were used to cross-calibrate the same ion chambers in plastic phantoms for monthly QA output measurements. An energy-specific dimensionless beam quality cross-calibration factor, <img src="Edit_6bfb9907-c034-4197-97a7-e8337a7fc21a.png" width="20" height="19" alt="" />, was derived to monitor the process across multiple sites. The SPC analysis was then performed to obtain the mean, <img src="Edit_c630a2dd-f714-4042-a46e-da0ca863cb41.png" width="30" height="20" alt="" /> , standard deviation, <span style="font-size:6.5pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="font-size:6.5pt;font-family:"">σ</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;"><sub><i>k</i></sub></span></span></span>, the Upper Control Limit (UCL) and Lower Control Limit (LCL) in each beam. This process was first applied to 15 years of historical data at the main campus to assess the effectiveness of the process. A two-year prospective study including all 30 linear accelerators spread over the main campus and seven satellites in the network followed. The ranges of the control limits (±3σ) were found to be in the range of 1.7% - 2.6% and 3.3% - 4.2% for the main campus and the satellite sites respectively. The wider range in the satellite sites was attributed to variations in the workflow. Standardization of workflow was also found to be effective in narrowing the control limits. The SPC is effective in identifying variations in the workflow and was shown to be an effective tool in managing large network reference dosimetry.展开更多
A Markovian risk process is considered in this paper, which is the generalization of the classical risk model. It is proper that a risk process with large claims is modelled as the Markovian risk model. In such a mode...A Markovian risk process is considered in this paper, which is the generalization of the classical risk model. It is proper that a risk process with large claims is modelled as the Markovian risk model. In such a model, the occurrence of claims is described by a point process {N(t)}t≥0 with N(t) being the number of jumps during the interval (0, t] for a Markov jump process. The ruin probability ψ(u) of a company facing such a risk model is mainly studied. An integral equation satisfied by the ruin probability function ψ(u) is obtained and the bounds for the convergence rate of the ruin probability ψ(u) are given by using a generalized renewal technique developed in the paper.展开更多
In this article, the joint distributions of several actuarial diagnostics which are important to insurers' running for the jump-diffusion risk process are examined. They include the ruin time, the time of the surplus...In this article, the joint distributions of several actuarial diagnostics which are important to insurers' running for the jump-diffusion risk process are examined. They include the ruin time, the time of the surplus process leaving zero ultimately (simply, the ultimately leaving-time), the surplus immediately prior to ruin, the supreme profits before ruin, the supreme profits and deficit until it leaves zero ultimately and so on. The explicit expressions for their distributions are obtained mainly by the various properties of Levy process, such as the homogeneous strong Markov property and the spatial homogeneity property etc, moveover, the many properties for Brownian motion.展开更多
The European Monetary Union (EMU) appeared unprecedentedly on the world scene as 12 European countries voluntarily gave up part of their sovereignty to create a regional monetary system. The introduction of euro curre...The European Monetary Union (EMU) appeared unprecedentedly on the world scene as 12 European countries voluntarily gave up part of their sovereignty to create a regional monetary system. The introduction of euro currency is undoubtedly a crucial step toward further European integration.展开更多
Sale-leaseback is paid special focus on for its great application in China in recent years.By giving a detailed analysis,an analysis of the features of sale-leaseback and a study of the risks of it are given in this p...Sale-leaseback is paid special focus on for its great application in China in recent years.By giving a detailed analysis,an analysis of the features of sale-leaseback and a study of the risks of it are given in this paper.Then a quantitative analysis of commercial real estate sale-leaseback is carried out.The scientific theoretical analysis is provided in this paper for risk assessment in commercial real estate sale-leaseback mode in China.An effective approach is put forward for sale-leaseback project evaluation and prevention of risk.A useful means is given to supervise commercial real estate sale-leaseback mode for relevant departments and a certain contribution is made to a further sound development of commercial real estate sale-leaseback mode.展开更多
The classical Poisson risk model in ruin theory assumed that the interarrival times between two successive claims are mutually independent, and the claim sizes and claim intervals are also mutually independent. In thi...The classical Poisson risk model in ruin theory assumed that the interarrival times between two successive claims are mutually independent, and the claim sizes and claim intervals are also mutually independent. In this paper, we modify the classical Poisson risk model to describe the surplus process of an insurance portfolio. We consider a jump-diffusion risk process compounded by a geometric Brownian motion, and assume that the claim sizes and claim intervals are dependent. Using the properties of conditional expectation, we establish integro-differential equations for the Gerber-Shiu function and the ultimate ruin probability.展开更多
Tod</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">ay, as the process of urbanization is accelerating, the country </span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family...Tod</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">ay, as the process of urbanization is accelerating, the country </span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">builds an extensive transportation network through bridges and roads, which facilitates the daily travel of the people and greatly promotes the development of the national economy. However, due to the cross-sea bridge spanning the bay, the overall scale, the complex construction environment, and the high technology </span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">content, the objective existence of risk factors in the construction process ca</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">n</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">not be completely avoided. In the construction of cross-sea bridges, once a co</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">n</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">struction safety accident occurs, it will cause irreparable losses to the constr</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">uction of the project. Taking Hangzhou Bay Bridge as an actual case, using the </span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify possible risk factors during the life cy</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">cle of Hangzhou Bay Bridge, establish a corresponding risk evaluation system to </span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">evaluate the importance and probability of risk, and to rank the importance o</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">f risks, and control the corresponding construction risks by adopting measures such as risk transfer and risk retention. The research example shows that the project risk of the cross-sea bridge project can be combined with the analytic hierarchy process to identify, analyze and evaluate the importance of the various risks faced by the project, so as to adopt corresponding avoidance methods to reduce the project risk loss and achieve the project construction expectations Target.展开更多
A new approach for assessing and optimizing software project process based on software risk control presented, which evaluates and optimizes software project process from the view of controlling the software project r...A new approach for assessing and optimizing software project process based on software risk control presented, which evaluates and optimizes software project process from the view of controlling the software project risks. A model for optimizing software risk control is given, a discrete optimization algorithm based on dynamic programruing is proposed and an example of using above method to solve a problem is also included in this paper. By improving the old passive post-project control into an active effective preaction, this new method can greatly promote the possibility of success of software projects.展开更多
Hazards and risks assessment of dangerous geocryological processes is actual problem in connection with climate change.Permafrost is widespread in Russia,Canada,the USA(Alaska), China,Mongolia and in mountain regions....Hazards and risks assessment of dangerous geocryological processes is actual problem in connection with climate change.Permafrost is widespread in Russia,Canada,the USA(Alaska), China,Mongolia and in mountain regions.Currently there are many papers concerning permafrost-related hazards,but the conceptual and based techniques are not available.Different approaches for solving this problem are considered in the paper.The generally accessible techniques of geocryological processes quantitative risk assessment are not available.The problem lies in uncertainty appearing from展开更多
文摘Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect given its importance to institutions and climate services capacity, to better understand intricate facets of the development and the integration of climate services into disaster risk management.
文摘A cross-sectional exploratory assessment of the needs and challenges of petroleum industry in Nigeria, in assessing process safety cumulative risk for major accidents prevention was investigated. A purposive cum random sampling technique was used in this study, among selected petroleum companies operating in Nigeria. Survey questionnaires were received from 216 participants made up of asset integrity engineers/operators, process safety experts, production safety professionals in the petroleum industry in Nigeria. Data analyses were carried out to cover descriptive and inferential statistics. Overall, the study recognized that assessing process safety cumulative risk is not a simple process due largely to the changing nature of safety critical barriers degradation data. The study result showed four main challenges faced by petroleum industries in Nigeria, in assessing process safety cumulative risk: 1) the study showed that 94% of the respondents agreed that there is limited accessibility to safety critical barriers degradation data (little automation). Also 2) 94% of the respondents accounted for poor knowledge of process safety cumulative risk is and agreed it to be of low rating. The result further showed that 3) 90% of the respondents demonstrated that there are no guidance and procedures in assessing process safety cumulative risk and finally 4) 92% of the respondents reported that there is no real-time risk visualization model/ tool. Addressing these issues and challenges by the petroleum industries in the study area, will lead to successful assessment of process safety cumulative risk, thereby reducing the risk of major accidents.
文摘This study investigated the groundwater quality and health risks associated with informal e-waste processing in the Alaba International Market in Lagos, Nigeria. Twenty-two groundwater samples were collected from hand-dug wells in the market area and analyzed for physicochemical properties and heavy metal concentrations. The results showed that the groundwater quality was poor, with high levels of heavy metals, including cadmium, lead, and chromium. The health index (HI) for children and adults was above the tolerable threshold levels, indicating a potential health risk to the population. Principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to identify the sources of metals in groundwater, and the results showed that informal e-waste processing was a significant source of contamination. The study highlights the need for effective management strategies to mitigate the potential health risks associated with informal e-waste processing and ensure public health and environmental safety.
文摘Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) is one of the major ingredients for the development of efficient software systems within a time frame and low-cost involvement. From the literature, it is evident that there are various kinds of process models that are used by the software industries for the development of small, medium and long-term software projects, but many of them do not cover risk management. It is quite obvious that the improper selection of the software development process model leads to failure of the software products as it is time bound activity. In the present work, a new software development process model is proposed which covers the risks at any stage of the development of the software product. The model is named a Hemant-Vipin (HV) process model and may be helpful for the software industries for development of the efficient software products and timely delivery at the end of the client. The efficiency of the HV process model is observed by considering various kinds of factors like requirement clarity, user feedback, change agility, predictability, risk identification, practical implementation, customer satisfaction, incremental development, use of ready-made components, quick design, resource organization and many more and found through a case study that the presented approach covers many of parameters in comparison of the existing process models. .
文摘In this paper,a class of risk processes perturbed by diffusion are considered. The Lundberg inequalities for the ruin probability are obtained.The size of the Lundberg exponents for different kinds of risk model is compared. The numerical illustration for the impact of the parameters on the ruin probability is given.
基金Project(50977003) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘In operation,risk arising from power transformer faults is of much uncertainty and complicacy.To timely and objectively control the risks,a transformer risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) and artificial neural network(ANN) from the perspective of accuracy and quickness is proposed.An analytic hierarchy process model for the transformer risk assessment is built by analysis of the risk factors affecting the transformer risk level and the weight relation of each risk factor in transformer risk calculation is analyzed by application of fuzzy consistency judgment matrix;with utilization of adaptive ability and nonlinear mapping ability of the ANN,the risk factors with large weights are used as input of neutral network,and thus intelligent quantitative assessment of transformer risk is realized.The simulation result shows that the proposed method increases the speed and accuracy of the risk assessment and can provide feasible decision basis for the transformer risk management and maintenance decisions.
基金Supported by the Foundation of Suzhou Science and Technology University
文摘This paper studies a Sparre Andersen negative risk sums model in which the distribution of "interclaim" time is that of a sum of n independent exponential random variables. Thus, the Erlang(n) model is a special case. On this basis the correlated negative risk sums process with the common Erlang process is considered. Integro-differential equations with boundary conditions for ψ(u) are given. For some special cases a closed-form expression for ψ(u) is derived.
文摘In this article, the risk process perturbed by diffusion under interest force is considered, the continuity and twice continuous differentiability for Фδ(u,w) are discussed,the Feller expression and the integro-differential equation satisfied by Фδ (u ,w) are derived. Finally, the decomposition of Фδ(u,w) is discussed, and some properties of each decomposed part of Фδ(u,w) are obtained. The results can be reduced to some ones in Gerber and Landry's,Tsai and Willmot's, and Wang's works by letting parameter δ and (or) a be zero.
文摘Managing TG-51 reference dosimetry in a large hospital network can be a challenging task. The objectives of this study are to investigate the effectiveness of using Statistical Process Control (SPC) to manage TG-51 workflow in such a network. All the sites in the network performed the annual reference dosimetry in water according to TG-51. These data were used to cross-calibrate the same ion chambers in plastic phantoms for monthly QA output measurements. An energy-specific dimensionless beam quality cross-calibration factor, <img src="Edit_6bfb9907-c034-4197-97a7-e8337a7fc21a.png" width="20" height="19" alt="" />, was derived to monitor the process across multiple sites. The SPC analysis was then performed to obtain the mean, <img src="Edit_c630a2dd-f714-4042-a46e-da0ca863cb41.png" width="30" height="20" alt="" /> , standard deviation, <span style="font-size:6.5pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="font-size:6.5pt;font-family:"">σ</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;"><sub><i>k</i></sub></span></span></span>, the Upper Control Limit (UCL) and Lower Control Limit (LCL) in each beam. This process was first applied to 15 years of historical data at the main campus to assess the effectiveness of the process. A two-year prospective study including all 30 linear accelerators spread over the main campus and seven satellites in the network followed. The ranges of the control limits (±3σ) were found to be in the range of 1.7% - 2.6% and 3.3% - 4.2% for the main campus and the satellite sites respectively. The wider range in the satellite sites was attributed to variations in the workflow. Standardization of workflow was also found to be effective in narrowing the control limits. The SPC is effective in identifying variations in the workflow and was shown to be an effective tool in managing large network reference dosimetry.
文摘A Markovian risk process is considered in this paper, which is the generalization of the classical risk model. It is proper that a risk process with large claims is modelled as the Markovian risk model. In such a model, the occurrence of claims is described by a point process {N(t)}t≥0 with N(t) being the number of jumps during the interval (0, t] for a Markov jump process. The ruin probability ψ(u) of a company facing such a risk model is mainly studied. An integral equation satisfied by the ruin probability function ψ(u) is obtained and the bounds for the convergence rate of the ruin probability ψ(u) are given by using a generalized renewal technique developed in the paper.
基金Supported by the National Natural Sci-ence Foundations of China (10271062 and 10471119)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Y2004A06, Y2008A12, and ZR2009AL015)+1 种基金the Science Foundations of Shandong Provincial Education Department (J07yh05)the Science Foundations of Qufu Normal University (XJ0713, Bsqd200517)
文摘In this article, the joint distributions of several actuarial diagnostics which are important to insurers' running for the jump-diffusion risk process are examined. They include the ruin time, the time of the surplus process leaving zero ultimately (simply, the ultimately leaving-time), the surplus immediately prior to ruin, the supreme profits before ruin, the supreme profits and deficit until it leaves zero ultimately and so on. The explicit expressions for their distributions are obtained mainly by the various properties of Levy process, such as the homogeneous strong Markov property and the spatial homogeneity property etc, moveover, the many properties for Brownian motion.
文摘The European Monetary Union (EMU) appeared unprecedentedly on the world scene as 12 European countries voluntarily gave up part of their sovereignty to create a regional monetary system. The introduction of euro currency is undoubtedly a crucial step toward further European integration.
文摘Sale-leaseback is paid special focus on for its great application in China in recent years.By giving a detailed analysis,an analysis of the features of sale-leaseback and a study of the risks of it are given in this paper.Then a quantitative analysis of commercial real estate sale-leaseback is carried out.The scientific theoretical analysis is provided in this paper for risk assessment in commercial real estate sale-leaseback mode in China.An effective approach is put forward for sale-leaseback project evaluation and prevention of risk.A useful means is given to supervise commercial real estate sale-leaseback mode for relevant departments and a certain contribution is made to a further sound development of commercial real estate sale-leaseback mode.
文摘The classical Poisson risk model in ruin theory assumed that the interarrival times between two successive claims are mutually independent, and the claim sizes and claim intervals are also mutually independent. In this paper, we modify the classical Poisson risk model to describe the surplus process of an insurance portfolio. We consider a jump-diffusion risk process compounded by a geometric Brownian motion, and assume that the claim sizes and claim intervals are dependent. Using the properties of conditional expectation, we establish integro-differential equations for the Gerber-Shiu function and the ultimate ruin probability.
文摘Tod</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">ay, as the process of urbanization is accelerating, the country </span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">builds an extensive transportation network through bridges and roads, which facilitates the daily travel of the people and greatly promotes the development of the national economy. However, due to the cross-sea bridge spanning the bay, the overall scale, the complex construction environment, and the high technology </span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">content, the objective existence of risk factors in the construction process ca</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">n</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">not be completely avoided. In the construction of cross-sea bridges, once a co</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">n</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">struction safety accident occurs, it will cause irreparable losses to the constr</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">uction of the project. Taking Hangzhou Bay Bridge as an actual case, using the </span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify possible risk factors during the life cy</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">cle of Hangzhou Bay Bridge, establish a corresponding risk evaluation system to </span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">evaluate the importance and probability of risk, and to rank the importance o</span><span style="white-space:normal;font-family:"">f risks, and control the corresponding construction risks by adopting measures such as risk transfer and risk retention. The research example shows that the project risk of the cross-sea bridge project can be combined with the analytic hierarchy process to identify, analyze and evaluate the importance of the various risks faced by the project, so as to adopt corresponding avoidance methods to reduce the project risk loss and achieve the project construction expectations Target.
基金Supported bythe Plan of New Technology Projectsin China National Packaging Corporation2005 (05ZBJA011)the Na-tional Natural Science Foundation of China (60373062) National Sci-ence Foundation of Hunan Province(04JJ3052)
文摘A new approach for assessing and optimizing software project process based on software risk control presented, which evaluates and optimizes software project process from the view of controlling the software project risks. A model for optimizing software risk control is given, a discrete optimization algorithm based on dynamic programruing is proposed and an example of using above method to solve a problem is also included in this paper. By improving the old passive post-project control into an active effective preaction, this new method can greatly promote the possibility of success of software projects.
文摘Hazards and risks assessment of dangerous geocryological processes is actual problem in connection with climate change.Permafrost is widespread in Russia,Canada,the USA(Alaska), China,Mongolia and in mountain regions.Currently there are many papers concerning permafrost-related hazards,but the conceptual and based techniques are not available.Different approaches for solving this problem are considered in the paper.The generally accessible techniques of geocryological processes quantitative risk assessment are not available.The problem lies in uncertainty appearing from