A new method to evaluate integrated production system capacity in oil fields

To improve the design and management of an integrated production system(IPS),a set of mathematical models and workflows are developed for evaluating the capacity of an IPS at steady-state conditions.Combining the conservation laws with applicable multiphase fluid and choke models,these mathematical models are solved to characterize the hydraulics of an integrated system of reservoir,wells,chokes,flowlines,and separator at steady state.The controllable variables such as well count,choke size and separator pressure are adjusted to optimize the performance of the IPs at a specific time.It is found that increasing the well count can increase the bulk flow rate of the production network,but too many wells may increase the manifold pressure,leading to decline of single-well production.Increasing the choke size can improve the capacity of the IPs.The production of the IPs is negatively correlated with the separator pressure.With increasing separator pressure and decreasing choke size,the increment of total fluid production(the capacity of IPS)induced by increasing well count decreases.Validation tests with field examples show a maximum absolute deviation is 1.5%,demonstrating the robustness and validity of the proposed mathematical models and workflows.

Physiological basis for the differences of productive capacity among tillers in winter wheat

The quality or structure of a wheat population is significantly affected by the compositions of tillers. Little has been known about the physiological basis for the differences of productive capacity among tillers. Two winter wheat cultivars, Shannong 15（SN15） and Shannong 8355（SN8355）, were used to investigate the differences of productive capacity among tillers and analyze the physiological mechanisms that determine the superior tiller group. Low-position tillers（early initiated tillers） had a higher yield per spike than high-position tillers（late initiated tillers） in both cultivars, which was due to their more grain number per spike, more fertile spikelet per spike, less sterile spikelet per spike and higher grain weight. According to cluster analysis, tillers of SN15 were classified into 2 groups： superior tiller group including main stem（0）, the first primary tiller（I） and the second primary tiller（II）; and inferior tiller group including the third primary tiller（III） and the first secondary tiller（I-p）. Tillers of SN8355 were classified into 3 groups： superior tiller group（0 and I）, intermediate tiller group（II and III） and inferior tiller group（I-p）. In comparison with other tiller groups, the superior tiller group had higher photosynthetic rate of flag leaves, higher antioxidant enzyme（SOD, POD and CAT） activities and lower levels of lipid peroxidation in leaves, higher grain filling rate in both superior and inferior grains during grain filling, higher single-stem biological yield and larger single-stem economic coefficient. Correlation analysis showed that yield per spike was positively and significantly correlated with the flag leaf photosynthetic rate, grain filling rate, the antioxidant enzyme activities and soluble protein content（except for SN15 at 5 days post-anthesis（DPA）） of flag leaf, the single-stem biological yield, and the single-stem economic coefficient. Remarkable negative correlation was also found between yield per spike and MDA content of flag leaf. These results suggested that superior tiller group had stronger leaf photosynthetic capacity, more predominance in terms of grain filling, slower senescence rate, higher biological yield and larger economic coefficient, and therefore, showed greater productive capacity than other tiller groups.

Analysis of petrophysical cutoffs of reservoir intervals with production capacity and with accumulation capacity in clastic reservoirs

Methodologies have been developed for calculating cutoffs of reservoir intervals with production capacity （RIPC） and reservoir intervals with accumulation capacity （RIAC） according to the types of pore throat structures and dynamic force by using data from petrophysical analysis, production tests and mercury injection. The data are from clastic reservoirs in the third member （Es3） and the fourth member （Es4） of the Shahejie Formation in the Shengtuo area on the North Slope of the Dongying Sag, Jiyang Depression, China. The method of calculating cutoffs of RIPC is summarized as follows： 1） determination of permeability cutoffs of RIPC; 2） classification of types of pore-throat structures according to mercury injection data and then relating porosity to permeability and determining the relationship between porosity and permeability according to each type of pore-throat structure; and 3） calculating porosity cutoffs of RIPC using established correlation between porosity and permeability according to the type of pore throat structure. The method of calculating cutoffs of RIAC includes： 1） establishing a functional relationship between oil-water interracial tension and formation temperature; 2） calculating limiting values of maximum connected pore-throat radii according to formation temperature and dynamic forces of each reservoir interval; 3） correlating permeability with maximum connected pore-throat radius and then obtaining permeability cutoffs of RIAC; and 4） calculating porosity cutoffs on the basis of permeability cutoffs according to specific correlations, suitable for the type of porethroat structure. The results of this study show that porosity and permeability cutoffs of clastic reservoirs decrease with depth. For a fixed permeability cutoff, the porosity cutoff of R1PC varies because the type of pore throat is different. At a fixed temperature, porosity and permeability cutoffs of RIAC decrease as dynamic force increases. For a fixed permeability cutoff of effective hydrocarbon accumulation, the porosity cutoff also varies with different types of pore throat.

Multiproduct and multistage integrated production planning model and algorithm based on an available production capacity network

This research attempts to devise a multistage and multiproduct short-term integrative production plan that can dynamically change based on the order priority and virtual occupancy for application in steel plants. Considering factors such as the delivery time, varietal compatibility between different products, production capacity of variety per hour, minimum or maximum batch size, and transfer time, we propose an available production capacity network with varietal compatibility and virtual occupancy for enhancing production plan implementation and quick adjustment in the case of dynamic production changes. Here available means the remaining production capacity after virtual occupancy.To quickly build an available production capacity network and increase the speed of algorithm solving, constraint selection and cutting methods with order priority were used for model solving. Finally, the genetic algorithm improved with local search was used to optimize the proposed production plan and significantly reduce the order delay rate. The validity of the proposed model and algorithm was numerically verified by simulating actual production practices. The simulation results demonstrate that the model and improved algorithm result in an effective production plan.

Actuality and Influencing Factors of Integrated Production Capacity of Foodstuff in Heilongjiang Province

Heilongjiang Province is an important marketable grain depot in China. Since the reform and opening up, Heilongjiang Province production capacity of foodstuff is increasingly growing into a new level. This paper started with the actuality of Heilongjiang Province integrated production capacity of foodstuff, and analyzed its major factors empirically through the mathematical model, then proposed some measures to enhance Heilongjiang Province production capacity of foodstuff which ensured China foodstuff security

Exploiting Virtual Elasticity of Production Systems for Respecting OTD-Part 1: Post-Optimality Conditions for Ergodic Order Arrivals in Fixed Capacity Regimes

Respecting the on-time-delivery (OTD) for manufacturing orders is mandatory. This depends, however, on the probability distribution of incoming order rate. The case of non-equal distribution, such as aggregated arrivals, may compromise the observance of on-time supplies for some orders. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the conditions of post-optimality for stochastic order rate governed production systems in order to observe OTD. Instead of a heuristic or a simulative exploration, a Cartesian-based approach is applied to developing the necessary and sufficient mathematical condition to solve the problem statement. The research result demonstrates that increasing speed of throughput reveals a latent capacity, which allows arrival orders above capacity limits to be backlog-buffered and rescheduled for OTD, exploiting the virtual manufacturing elasticity inherent to all production systems to increase OTD reliability of non JIT-based production systems.

Evaluation of Integrated Production Capacity of Well- facilitated Farmland in Jiangsu Province

The fundamental task of well-facilitated farmland construction is to continuously lift the integrated production capacity. External project construction for well-facilitated farmland can not completely solve existing problems in improvement of intrinsic quality of farmland.Based on research findings of integrated production capacity of farmland,starting from basic elements such as water,soil,seed,fertilizer,and pesticide,this paper introduced factors influencing the integrated production capacity of well-facilitated farmland,including natural quality of farmland,supporting infrastructure,agricultural technology level and management level,and labor quality. Besides,it establish an evaluation system for integrated production capacity of well-facilitated farmland in Jiangsu Province by Analytic Hierarchy Process( AHP),and made an empirical study using indicator data of 2010- 2014. Results indicated that the general index of integrated production capacity of farmland in Jiangsu Province in 2010- 2014 was ascending,reflecting improvement of integrated production capacity of farmland. With the aid of radar map,it further found that the coupling between water,soil,seed,fertilizer,and pesticide and other elements play a crucial role in lifting the integrated production capacity of farmland. Finally,based on existing problems in construction of well-facilitated farmland in Jiangsu Province,it came up with some pertinent recommendations from the perspective of coordinated development of all elements.

Study on the driving factors and regulation mode for coal production capacity

Coal production capacity regulation is a complex system involving economic growth,structural optimization,high-efficiency mining,and environmental protection.Based on its driving factors,this paper forms four regulation modes representing different control orientations,establishes a system dynamics model,and predicts the regulation effects of single-factor and combined control mode.The result shows:(1) Except for the mechanization degree and recovery rate,the other nine individual production capacity control policies are all conducive to reducing coal production capacity and restraining the excessive growth of coal production capacity.(2) The effect of combined regulation mode on slowing down the growth of coal demand,regulating the excessive growth of coal production capacity and new capacity investment are obviously better than that of single policy.(3) The combined control modes have obvious differences in the suppression effect on coal production capacity:transformational development mode > technology-driven mode > structural optimization mode > efficiency improvement mode.Therefore,in the process of achieving optimal regulation of coal production capacity,attention should be paid to the preferential use of transformational development and technology-driven mode.At the same time,the comprehensive use of regulation and control methods should also be considered to improve the regulation effect and the regulation efficiency of coal production capacity.

Current Situation and Approaches Relating to Construction of Agricultural Production and Operation Development Capacity for Rural Households in Hubei Province

The main body of household operation in the rural household contract responsibility system of our country has developed to the present stage,and has formed the situation that three kinds of rural households coexist,namely,ordinary rural households,major professional households and family farms. The agricultural production and operation of three kinds of household plays an important role in supporting the rapid development of modern agriculture in China. Under the new situation of deepening the rural reform and realizing the goal of well-off society in an all-round way,it is of great practical significance to make a thorough investigation and study on the present situation and approaches relating to the construction of the agricultural production and operation capacity for the three kinds of rural households.

Promoting the Empowerment of Science and Technology to Ensure Food Safety Production:A Case Study of Huizhou City

The current situation of grain production in Huizhou City was analyzed firstly,and then the existing problems and challenges of grain safety production were pointed out,such as increases in the pressure to ensure grain safety production and the difficulty of stable development of grain production.Finally,several countermeasures and suggestions for the stable development of grain production were put forward.

Stress sensitivity of formation during multi-cycle gas injection and production in an underground gas storage rebuilt from gas reservoirs

Permeability sensitivity to stress experiments were conducted on standard core samples taken from Wen 23 Gas Storage at multi-cycle injection and production conditions of the gas storage to study the change pattern of stress sensitivity of permeability.A method for calculating permeability under overburden pressure in the multi-cycle injection and production process was proposed,and the effect of stress sensitivity of reservoir permeability on gas well injectivity and productivity in UGS was analyzed.Retention rate of permeability decreased sharply first and then slowly with the increase of the UGS cycles.The stress sensitivity index of permeability decreased with the increase of cycle number of net stress variations in the increase process of net stress.The stress sensitivity index of permeability hardly changed with the increase of cycle number of net stress variations in the decrease process of net stress.With the increase of cycle number of net stress variation,the stress sensitivity index of permeability in the increase process of net stress approached that in the decrease process of net stress.The lower the reservoir permeability,the greater the irreversible permeability loss rate,the stronger the cyclic stress sensitivity,and the higher the stress sensitivity index of the reservoir,the stronger the reservoir stress sensitivity.The gas zones with permeability lower than 0.3’10-3 mm2 are not suitable as gas storage regions.Stress sensitivity of reservoir permeability has strong impact on gas well injectivity and productivity and mainly in the first few cycles.

Production Capacity Prediction Method of Shale Oil Based on Machine Learning Combination Model

The production capacity of shale oil reservoirs after hydraulic fracturing is influenced by a complex interplay involving geological characteristics,engineering quality,and well conditions.These relationships,nonlinear in nature,pose challenges for accurate description through physical models.While field data provides insights into real-world effects,its limited volume and quality restrict its utility.Complementing this,numerical simulation models offer effective support.To harness the strengths of both data-driven and model-driven approaches,this study established a shale oil production capacity prediction model based on a machine learning combination model.Leveraging fracturing development data from 236 wells in the field,a data-driven method employing the random forest algorithm is implemented to identify the main controlling factors for different types of shale oil reservoirs.Through the combination model integrating support vector machine(SVM)algorithm and back propagation neural network(BPNN),a model-driven shale oil production capacity prediction model is developed,capable of swiftly responding to shale oil development performance under varying geological,fluid,and well conditions.The results of numerical experiments show that the proposed method demonstrates a notable enhancement in R2 by 22.5%and 5.8%compared to singular machine learning models like SVM and BPNN,showcasing its superior precision in predicting shale oil production capacity across diverse datasets.

Exploiting Virtual Elasticity of Production Systems to Respect OTD—Part 3: Basic Considerations for Modelling CPPS Characterized by Non-Ergodic Order Entry and Non-Deterministic Product-Mix for Fully Flexible Addressable Workstations

The recently experienced hype concerning the so-called “4th Industrial Revolution” of production systems has prompted several papers of various subtopics regarding Cyber-Phdysical Production Systems (CPPS). However, important aspects such as the modelling of CPPS to understand the theory regarding the performance of highly non-ergodic and non-deterministic flexible manufacturing systems in terms of Exit Rate (ER), Manufacturing Lead Time (MLT), and On-Time Delivery (OTD) have not yet been examined systematically and even less modeled analytically. To develop the topic, in this paper, the prerequisites for modelling such systems are defined in order to be able to derive an explicit and dedicated production mathematics-based understanding of CPPS and its dynamics: switching from explorative simulation to rational modelling of the manufacturing “physics” led to an own and specific manufacturing theory. The findings have led to enouncing, among others, the Theorem of Non-Ergodicity as well as the Batch Cycle Time Deviation Function giving important insights to model digital twin-based CPPS for complying with the mandatory OTD.

“Extreme utilization” theory and practice in gas storages with complex geological conditions

Based on more than 20-year operation of gas storages with complex geological conditions and a series of research findings, the pressure-bearing dynamics mechanism of geological body is revealed. With the discovery of gas-water flowing law of multi-cycle relative permeability hysteresis and differential utilization in zones, the extreme utilization theory targeting at the maximum amount of stored gas, maximum injection-production capacity and maximum efficiency in space utilization is proposed to support the three-in-one evaluation method of the maximum pressure-bearing capacity of geological body, maximum well production capacity and maximum peak shaving capacity of storage space. This study realizes the full potential of gas storage(storage capacity) at maximum pressure, maximum formation-wellbore coordinate production, optimum well spacing density match with finite-time unsteady flow, and peaking shaving capacity at minimum pressure, achieving perfect balance between security and capacity. Operation in gas storages, such as Hutubi in Xinjiang, Xiangguosi in Xinan, and Shuang6 in Liaohe, proves that extreme utilization theory has promoted high quality development of gas storages in China.

In-situ stress of coal reservoirs in the Zhengzhuang area of the southern Qinshui Basin and its effects on coalbed methane development

In-situ stress is a critical factor influencing the permeability of coal reservoirs and the production capacity of coalbed methane(CBM)wells.Accurate prediction of in-situ stress and investigation of its influence on coal reservoir permeability and production capacity are significant for CBM development.This study investigated the CBM development zone in the Zhengzhuang area of the Qinshui Basin.According to the low mechanical strength of coal reservoirs,this study derived a calculation model of the in-situ stress of coal reservoirs based on the multi-loop hydraulic fracturing method and analyzed the impacts of initial fractures on the calculated results.Moreover,by combining the data such as the in-situ stress,permeability,and drainage and recovery data of CBM wells,this study revealed the spatial distribution patterns of the current in-situ stress of the coal reservoirs and discussed the impacts of the insitu stress on the permeability and production capacity.The results are as follows.(1)Under given fracturing pressure,longer initial fractures are associated with higher calculated maximum horizontal principal stress values.Therefore,ignoring the effects of the initial fractures will cause the calculated values of the in-situ stress to be less than the actual values.(2)As the burial depth increases,the fracturing pressure,closure pressure,and the maximum and minimum horizontal principal stress of the coal reservoirs in the Zhengzhuang area constantly increase.The average gradients of the maximum and minimum horizontal principal stress are 3.17 MPa/100 m and 2.05 MPa/100 m,respectively.(3)Coal reservoir permeability is significantly controlled by the magnitude and state of the current in-situ stress.The coal reservoir permeability decreases exponentially with an increase in the effective principal stress.Moreover,a low lateral pressure coefficient(less than 1)is associated with minor horizontal compressive effects and high coal reservoir permeability.(4)Under similar conditions,such as resource endowments,CBM well capacity is higher in primary structural coal regions with moderate paleotectonic stress modification,low current in-situ stress,and lateral pressure coefficient of less than 1.

Zoning Control of Health of Farmland System

In addition to the quality and quantity of farmland, the health of farmland has also become an important research direction in the field of farmland protection. In order to comprehensively evaluate the relationship and distribution of health and farmland production capacity, the depression area behind the Yellow River in Henan Province is taken as the research object. Using production capacity evaluation data and system health evaluation results, the health status and production capacity of farmland in the region are coupled. The results show that high productivity farmland is most distributed in areas with moderate health risks, while low productivity farmland is more distributed in areas with low health risks. Based on their coupling characteristics, the depression area behind the Yellow River can be divided into five types, and management and protection strategies can be formulated separately.

Isolating higher yielding and more stable rice genotypes in stress environments: fine-tuning a selection method using production and resilience score indices

In Asia, the rice crop sustains millions of people. However, growing demand for this crop needs to be met while simultaneously reducing its water consumption to cope with the effects of climate change. Lowland cropping systems are the most common and productive but have particularly high water requirements. High-yielding rice genotypes adapted to drier environments(such as rainfed or aerobic rice ecosystems) are needed to increase the water use efficiency of cropping. Identifying these genotypes requires fast and more accurate selection methods. It is hypothesized that applying a new quantitative selection method(the score index selection method), can usefully compare rice yield responses over different years and stress intensities to select genotypes more rapidly and efficiently. Applying the score index to previously published rice yield data for 39 genotypes grown in no-stress and two stress environments, identified three genotypes(ARB 8, IR55419-04 and ARB 7) with higher and stable yield under moderate to severe stress conditions. These genotypes are postulated to be better adapted to stress environment such as upland and aerobic environments. Importantly, the score index selection method offers improved precision than the conventional breeding selection method in identifying genotypes that are well-suited to a range of stress levels within the target environment.

Development and Utilization of the World＇s and China＇s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world＇s and China＇s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world＇s and China＇s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources （especially iron ores and copper ores） are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserve- production ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world＇s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015-2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4-0.7 billion tons （Gt）, 5.0-6.0 million tons （Mt）, 1.1-8.9 Mt, 1.0-2.0 Mt, 1.2-2.0 Mt and 4.8-5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China＇s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores （crude steel）, potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite （primary aluminum） and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores （crude steel） will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite （primary aluminum）, 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China＇s demand for iron ores （crude steel）, bauxite （primary aluminum） and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world＇s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015-2035, China＇s accumulative demand for iron ores （crude steel） will be 20.313 Gt （13.429 Gt）, 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt （0.616 Gt） of bauxite （primary aluminum）, 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world＇s YOY （YOY） accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China＇s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary （mine） mineral products in 2015-2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper, 1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of （mine） lead, 0.109 Gt of （mine） zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world＇s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000-2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China＇s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015-2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015-2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap （iron ores） is 3.27 Gt （5.08 Gt）, 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China＇s bulk mineral resources in 2015-2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China＇s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%, -0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly. （1） The demand peak of China＇s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015-2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak. （2） The supply-demand contradiction of China＇s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities. （3） China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of ＂reducing excess production capacity＂. （4） In accordance with the national strategic deployment of ＂One Belt One Road＂, China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly. （5） It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling. （6） China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.