Research on Early Warning of Banking Crises from the Perspective of Credit Structures

The relationship between credit expansion and banking crises is complex and cannot be fully explained by total credit alone.A systematic analysis of the relationship between the amount and structure of total credit and banking crises is important for an objective prediction of the influence of potential financial risks.This paper,drawing on data from 15 selected countries,delves into the power of credit indicators in the early warning of banking crises from the perspectives of industrial structure,sector structure,and term structure of credit.Various machine learning methods were used,including Logistic Regression,Random Forest,Decision Tree,Support Vector Machine(SVM),Bagging,and Boosting models.The empirical findings indicate that credit expansion plays a crucial role in triggering banking crises.However,total credit is better suited for the early warning of short-term banking crises,whereas credit structure is more useful for the early warning of long-term banking crises.Moreover,in an early warning system,identifying key early warning indicators is more meaningful than merely increasing the number of indicators.Machine learning can somewhat enhance the early warning power,but it may not always be robust.Therefore,more attention should be paid to potential systemic banking crises resulting from an imbalance in credit structure while regulating the total credit threshold.

Management of hypertensive crises in the elderly

高血压的危机比 180/120 mmHg 高是血压的举起。这些能迫切或突现，取决于结束机关损坏的存在。高血压的危机的临床的演讲在老病人是相当可变的，并且临床医生们必须怀疑非特定的症状。在 pathophysiological 的过细的知识在他们改变的老病人需要的设法的高血压的危机，药理学选择，使用的药的 pharmacokinetics，他们的副作用，和他们和另外的药的相互作用。Clevidipine， nicardipine， labetalol， esmolol，和 fenoldopam 在比较喜欢的选择在之中由于他们的功效和 tolerability 老。除非没有可得到的另外的选择， Nitroprusside， hydralazine，和 nifedipine 应该被避免，由于复杂并发症和无法预言的回答的高风险。

Diagnosis and treatment of hypertensive crises in the elderly patients

Hypertension is a common clinical problem in the elderly worldwide and physicians of all types are likely to encounter patients with hypertensive urgencies and emergencies in these patients. Although various terms have been applied to these conditions, they are all characterized by acute elevations in blood pressure and evidence of end-organ injury. Prompt, but carefully considered therapy is necessary to limit morbidity and mortality. A wide range of pharmacologic alternatives are available to the practitioner to control blood pressure and treat complications in these patients. The management of the elderly patient with hypertensive crises needs to include close monitoring and a gentle decline in blood pressure to avoid catastrophic complications, exacerbation of ischemic myopathy, and vascular insufficiency.

Was There a Contagion during the Asian Crises?

The contagion of financial crises surrounding the markets around the world has been in the forefront of academic and public discussions. In this paper, we attempt to study the “contagion effect” of the stock market crises around the world by studying the correlations of global stock returns and volatility. We analyze the daily returns of major stock indexes around the world to discover the timing and path of the transmission of shocks that manifest themselves in stock market returns. We construct VARs of major stock market index returns and volatilities. Our work differs from the literature in analyzing spillover effects between emerging markets and other major stock markets.

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of Parents in the Vaso-Occlusive Crises of the Sick Children in Brazzaville

Objectives: to evaluate the parents’ knowledge of vaso-occlusive crises, to identify their attitudes and practices. Method: a retrospective, transversal, descriptive and analytical study carried out between January and June 2016 at the HUC of Brazzaville. The parents of sickle cell children aged 2 to 17 years, followed for at least one year, were interviewed. Results: a total of 319 parents were interviewed, including 221 women (69.3%) and 98 men (30.7%) with a mean age of 40.8 ± 9 years. They were unschooled 65 cases (20.4%), had primary education 41 cases (12.9%), secondary 149 cases (46.7%) and higher level 64 cases (20.1%). They had one child sickle cell 258 cases (80.9%). They knew sickle cell disease 283 cases (88.7%), its genetic transmission 249 cases (78.1%). The source of information was a health worker 211 cases (66.1%). They had a good knowledge of the vaso-occlusive crisis 101 cases (31.7%). In a vaso-occlusive crisis, they used a health facility 207 cases (64.8%), self-medicated 66 cases (20.7%). Their home practices were good 99 cases (31%), fairly good 135 cases (42.3%) and bad 85 cases (26.5%). Parents aged 25 to 34 (OR = 1.8 95% 1 - 3), secondary (OR = 1.7 95% 1 - 2.7) and with good practices (OR = 4.5 95% 2.7 - 7.5) are those who have a good knowledge of vaso-occlusive crises. Conclusion: The importance and severity of vaso-occlusive crises in the sickle-cell child’s life experience, the crucial role played by parents in their care requires that the information, education and communication of these children be strengthened To improve their quality of life.

A Nonlinear Dynamic Model of the Financial Crises Contagions

Employing the Differential Dynamics Method, a nonlinear dynamic model is set up to describe the international financial crises contagion within a short time between two countries. The two countries’ control force depending on the timely financial assistance, the positive attitude and actions to rescue other infected countries, and investor confidence aggregation, and the immunity ability of the infected country are considered as the major reasons to drive the nonlinear fluctuations of the stock return rates in both countries during the crisis. According to the Ordinary Differential Equations Qualitative Theory, we found that there are three cases of financial crises contagion within a brief time between two countries: weak contagion with instability but inhibition, contagion with limit and controllable oscillation, and strong contagion without control in a brief time.

“Blessing or Curse”?Introduction of Bond Notes as an Antidote to Zimbabwe’s Liquidity Crises

The Zimbabwean financial sector has been retrogressive,constrained,and unpredictable since the year 2000,serving for the multiple currency periods(2009-2013)after the demonetization of the domestic dollar.The sector since then has seen a number of commercial banks fail to meet RBZ(Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe)minimum capital requirements,put under curatorship,delisted or liquidated because of a myriad of operational and financial challenges.The objective of this study is to make an assessment of whether or not the introduction of bond notes has been a curse or blessing.The study drew raw data from bank account holders,academics,general public,corporate world and commercial banks in Masvingo for analysis and interpretation.The study established that the majority of people,corporate world and commercial banks were sceptical to embrace the surrogate bond notes because of the uncertainties,operational and financial risks that they paused on the domestic financial markets.It was also discovered that most banks were quick to pay clients’withdrawals in bond notes,deduct US dollar equivalences from their accounts,and distinguish bond notes from US dollars at the point of making deposits and foreign business transactions.It was also realized that there was market indiscipline and trading in bigger US dollar notes in the informal sector and serious shortage of the same notes in the formal sector.The study concluded that the introduction of bond notes to trade parallel to the US dollar brought a serious shortage of cash on formal markets and increases in the general price level of goods and services.The study therefore recommends that the RBZ should completely withdraw the bond notes from the market to accord the US dollar its world market value and restore confidence and discipline in the Zimbabwean financial sector.The study also recommends another option of the adoption of the South African Rand as an interventionist way of solving Zimbabwe’s liquidity crises.

Communicating in Product Harm Crises: Do the Right Thing

Food recalls can have very serious aftermath from many points of view: starting from the outbreak consequences on public health, on company’s reputation, sell-out, finance, up to putting at risk the survival of the firm itself. From a formal point of view, a product harm crisis presents similarities with other emergency situations: both of them consist in unpredictable events, often due to unknown or undervalued causes, which can significantly alter normal business and compromise the safety of the company, of its employees and customers. Given the potential damage resulting from a dangerous product crisis, it is surprising that in the food industry alongside mere procedures (often reducible to botched manuals compiled solely because their presence reassures auditors and authorities) there is still little attention to an approach based on a method. Formal corporate procedures (manuals and crisis management plans) are important, but can cause a false sense of security and preparedness, if executives do not possess an adequate crisis management culture, which depends, as well as on experience and training, also on the ability to assume the correct behavioral posture, and which involves psychological, organizational and communicational skills that can not be undervalued. The purpose of this article is to provide a practical approach based on the experience of crisis-management (applied in emergency situations by health professionals, armed forces and civil protection) useful to support food industry during a food recall, in order to avoid the most classic errors that can undermine speed of reaction, corrective measures effectiveness and leadership, in the most delicate moments for a company life. If it is true the way a firm manages the recall affects its impact, it is necessary to assess the fundamental factors to be observed at such times: timeliness, lucidity, responsibility, leadership.

Late Miocene Environmental Crises and Their Impacts:Desiccation of the Mediterranean and Its bearing on World Desertification and Hominid Appearance

The ancient Mediterranean was once dried up around6~5.3million years ago.It is a landmark event,which had great impact on global environment and climate.However,few references are available in the literatures on this topic,

Frequent Crises Usher in Deepgoing Adjustments

The past year witnessed an extremely complicated world scene characterised byemergence of frequent crises accompanied by deepgoing adjustments as well asof fierce competition coupled with strengthening cooperation. The dangers of finan-cial storms, economic recession, political turmoils and military jeopardies emergingat the turn of the century bring to the world both big-scale tensions on the negativeside and unusual early warnings on the positive side. The tendencies toward glob-alization, multi-polarization and a new-type relationship among nations have

WORLD MILITARY SITUATION 2016: ANTAGONISM INTENSIFIES BUT CRISES REMAIN CONTROLLABLE

The world military situation in 2016was complex,military strategies of major countries undergoing profound readjustment,contest in emerging fields increasing and a new round of populism cropping up worldwide which resulted in'Black swan events'happening one after another,major-country contest and geopolitical conflicts piling up and local

Continuities of Historical Crises and Discourses of Europe From the “Neo-Latin Past” to the 21st Century

Europe and the EU have been facing many crises and challenges in recent years.From Brexit and rising nationalism to economic problems and unanimous refugee policies,most of them remain unsolved.Instead of moving forward with the European integration project,Europe seems to regress in many instances.Considering this turmoil,it seems all the more important to historicize the affirmative discourse of Europe and to expand the knowledge of the European unification process with novel insights into its history.Only if a broad understanding of its roots and developments prevails,the conflicts of the present can be better evaluated and addressed.Particularly one set of so far neglected sources from Europe’s past serves as guiding light in that respect:the early modern Europe literature written in the Latin language.Between 1400 and 1800,Latin enjoyed a similar status in promoting scientific discoveries,negotiating political affairs and generally communicating on an international level as modern-day English.By offering a brief glance at some historically influential Latin texts from the early modern discourse of Europe,this article will show that the early modern European crises strikingly resemble Europe’s current crises despite the difference in political,social,and economic circumstances.The discourse of Europe has from the beginning been a stable discourse,characterized by the same recurring questions for centuries.When used as reference point for the crises of the 21st century,the prospects for the European integration look better than presumed.

重大公共危机事件对消费者恐慌性购买的影响研究

重大公共危机事件的频繁发生与不断持续导致世界绝大多数国家或地区相继出现恐慌性购买,严重影响了供应链管理与社会秩序稳定,但对于其形成机理却缺乏关注与研究。通过两个实验研究发现:重大公共危机事件确实会引起消费者的恐慌性购买,病害类危机事件较之于灾害类危机事件更容易引起消费者的恐慌性购买;社会学习与控制补偿起共同中介作用;解释水平对共同中介效应起调节作用,即低解释水平者面对灾害类危机事件时更善于社会学习,而高解释水平者面对病害类危机事件时更易于控制补偿。研究结论不仅对深化与丰富公共危机事件、恐慌性购买和解释水平等理论具有重要意义,而且对于消费者、企业和政府机构等具有重要的管理启示。

超大城市社区应对重大突发公共危机的韧性治理及其策略

与普通城市相比,超大城市公共安全风险高,灾害事故成因复杂,源头防控工作难,基层保障能力薄弱。一旦出现重大突发危机,城市社区作为危机应对的“最后一道防线”至关重要。而且,社区作为超大城市应急管理的基本单元,处在突发危机应对和防灾救灾的前沿阵地,是筑牢基础,抵御各类危机危害的“最先一公里”。本研究对韧性治理框架下的社区韧性特征分析,从社区治理体系的适应性提升,治理功能的重构以及应急管理模式的转换等三个方面,描述社区应对重大突发危机的韧性,构建社区应对重大突发危机的结构韧性、功能韧性和行动韧性等能力,并提出韧性治理的主要策略,包括加强主体协同,强化社会动员;促进资源整合,建立韧性网络,增强基层社区的自我组织、自我服务、自我调适、自我恢复的能力。通过完善韧性治理体系,提升社区韧性能力,将危机减缓做到前端,落在基层,防范各类重大安全风险,实现超大城市社区应对重大突发危机的韧性治理。

产业多样化、技术创新与区域经济韧性

经济韧性增长是新发展阶段区域经济的演化目标。立足于抵抗力和恢复力两个维度,通过反事实分析测度中国各地区在面临突发卫生事件外部冲击时的经济韧性。并进一步基于双循环研究框架,借助空间计量实证检验产业多样化和技术创新对经济韧性的驱动作用。研究发现:(1)经济韧性空间分异明显,抵抗力总体呈“中西部地区-长江黄河中游-沿海地区-东北地区”递减分布,高恢复力区域则主要集中在沿海地带,抵抗力和恢复力负向相关;(2)产业多样化和技术创新在塑造区域经济韧性方面发挥了显著驱动作用,同时具有空间溢出效应。此外,当与双循环因素交互后,二者的驱动作用进一步增强。基于对实证结果的综合分析,最后就如何改进韧性表现提出了政策建议。