Fishery stock assessment of Kiddi shrimp (Parapenaeopsis stylifera) in the Northern Arabian Sea Coast of Pakistan by using surplus production models

Pakistani marine waters are under an open access regime. Due to poor management and policy implications, blind fishing is continued which may result in ecological as well as economic losses. Thus, it is of utmost importance to estimate fishery resources before harvesting. In this study, catch and effort data, 1996-2009, of Kiddi shrimp Parapenaeopsis stylifera fishery from Pakistani marine waters was analyzed by using specialized fishery software in order to know fishery stock status of this commercially important shrimp. Maximum, minimum and average capture production ofP. stylifera was observed as 15 912 metric tons （mr） （1997）, 9 438 mt （2009） and 11 667 mt/a. Two stock assessment tools viz. CEDA （catch and effort data analysis） and ASPIC （a stock production model incorporating covariates） were used to compute MSY （maximum sustainable yield） of this organism. In CEDA, three surplus production models, Fox, Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson, along with three error assumptions, log, log normal and gamma, were used. For initial proportion （IP） 0.8, the Fox model computed MSY as 6 858 nat （CV=0.204, R^2=0.709） and 7 384 mt （CV=0.149, R^2=0.72） for log and log normal error assumption respectively. Here, gamma error produced minimization failure. Estimated MSY by using Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models remained the same for log, log normal and gamma error assumptions i.e. 7 083 mt, 8 209 mt and 7 242 mt correspondingly. The Schafer results showed highest goodness of fit R2 （0.712） values. ASPIC computed MSY, CV, R2, FMsv and BMsv parameters for the Fox model as 7 219 nat, 0.142, 0.872, 0.111 and 65 280, while for the Logistic model the computed values remained 7 720 mt, 0.148, 0.868, 0.107 and 72 110 correspondingly. Results obtained have shown that P. stylifera has been overexploited. Immediate steps are needed to conserve this fishery resource for the future and research on other species of commercial importance is urgently needed.

Assessing the Fishery Resource Status of China’s Coastal Waters Using Surplus Production Models

Surplus production models(SPMs)are among the simplest and most widely used fishery stock assessment models.The catch-effort data analysis(CEDA)and a surplus production model incorporating covariates(ASPIC)are softwares for analyzing fishery catch and fishing effort data using nonequilibrium SPMs.In China Fishery Statistical Yearbook,annual fishery production and fishing effort data of the Yellow Sea,Bohai Sea,East China Sea,and South China Sea have been published from 1979 till present.Using its catch and fishing effort data from 1980 to 2018,we apply the CEDA and ASPIC to evaluate fishery resources in Chinese coastal waters.The results show that the total maximum sustainable yield(MSY)estimate of the four China seas is 10.05-10.83 million tons,approximately equal to the marine fishery catch(10.44 million tons)reported in 2018.It can be concluded that China’s coastal fishery resources are currently fully exploited and must be protected with a precautionary approach.Both softwares produced similar results;however,the CEDA had a much higher R2 value(above 0.9)than ASPIC(about 0.2),indicating that CEDA can better fit the data and therefore is more suitable for analyzing the fishery resources in the coastal waters of China.

Application of the Moving Averaging Technique in Surplus Production Models

Surplus production models are the simplest analytical methods effective for fish stock assessment and fisheries management. In this paper, eight surplus production estimators(three estimation procedures) were tested on Schaefer and Fox type simulated data in three simulated fisheries(declining, well-managed, and restoring fisheries) at two white noise levels. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to verify the utility of moving averaging(MA), which was an important technique for reducing the effect of noise in data in these models. The relative estimation error(REE) of maximum sustainable yield(MSY) was used as an indicator for the analysis, and one-way ANOVA was applied to test the significance of the REE calculated at four levels of MA. Simulation results suggested that increasing the value of MA could significantly improve the performance of the surplus production model(low REE) in all cases when the white noise level was low(coefficient of variation(CV) = 0.02). However, when the white noise level increased(CV= 0.25), adding the value of MA could still significantly enhance the performance of most models. Our results indicated that the best model performance occurred frequently when MA was equal to 3; however, some exceptions were observed when MA was higher.

A new method to evaluate integrated production system capacity in oil fields

To improve the design and management of an integrated production system(IPS),a set of mathematical models and workflows are developed for evaluating the capacity of an IPS at steady-state conditions.Combining the conservation laws with applicable multiphase fluid and choke models,these mathematical models are solved to characterize the hydraulics of an integrated system of reservoir,wells,chokes,flowlines,and separator at steady state.The controllable variables such as well count,choke size and separator pressure are adjusted to optimize the performance of the IPs at a specific time.It is found that increasing the well count can increase the bulk flow rate of the production network,but too many wells may increase the manifold pressure,leading to decline of single-well production.Increasing the choke size can improve the capacity of the IPs.The production of the IPs is negatively correlated with the separator pressure.With increasing separator pressure and decreasing choke size,the increment of total fluid production(the capacity of IPS)induced by increasing well count decreases.Validation tests with field examples show a maximum absolute deviation is 1.5%,demonstrating the robustness and validity of the proposed mathematical models and workflows.

Revolutionizing Tight Reservoir Production: A Novel Dual-Medium Unsteady Seepage Model for Optimizing Volumetrically Fractured Horizontal Wells

This study presents an avant-garde approach for predicting and optimizing production in tight reservoirs,employing a dual-medium unsteady seepage model specifically fashioned for volumetrically fractured horizontal wells.Traditional models often fail to fully capture the complex dynamics associated with these unconventional reservoirs.In a significant departure from these models,our approach incorporates an initiation pressure gradient and a discrete fracture seepage network,providing a more realistic representation of the seepage process.The model also integrates an enhanced fluid-solid interaction,which allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the fluid-structure interactions in the reservoir.This is achieved through the incorporation of improved permeability and stress coupling,leading to more precise predictions of reservoir behavior.The numerical solutions derived from the model are obtained through the sophisticated finite element method,ensuring high accuracy and computational efficiency.To ensure the model’s reliability and accuracy,the outcomes were tested against a real-world case,with results demonstrating strong alignment.A key revelation from the study is the significant difference between uncoupled and fully coupled volumetrically fractured horizontal wells,challenging conventional wisdom in the field.Additionally,the study delves into the effects of stress,fracture length,and fracture number on reservoir production,contributing valuable insights for the design and optimization of tight reservoirs.The findings from this study have the potential to revolutionize the field of tight reservoir prediction and management,offering significant advancements in petroleum engineering.The proposed approach brings forth a more nuanced understanding of tight reservoir systems and opens up new avenues for optimizing reservoir management and production.

A Well Productivity Model for Multi-Layered Marine and Continental Transitional Reservoirs with Complex Fracture Networks

Using the typical characteristics of multi-layered marine and continental transitional gas reservoirs as a basis,a model is developed to predict the related well production rate.This model relies on the fractal theory of tortuous capillary bundles and can take into account multiple gas flow mechanisms at the micrometer and nanometer scales,as well as the flow characteristics in different types of thin layers(tight sandstone gas,shale gas,and coalbed gas).Moreover,a source-sink function concept and a pressure drop superposition principle are utilized to introduce a coupled flow model in the reservoir.A semi-analytical solution for the production rate is obtained using a matrix iteration method.A specific well is selected for fitting dynamic production data,and the calculation results show that the tight sandstone has the highest gas production per unit thickness compared with the other types of reservoirs.Moreover,desorption and diffusion of coalbed gas and shale gas can significantly contribute to gas production,and the daily production of these two gases decreases rapidly with decreasing reservoir pressure.Interestingly,the gas production from fractures exhibits an approximately U-shaped distribution,indicating the need to optimize the spacing between clusters during hydraulic fracturing to reduce the area of overlapping fracture control.The coal matrix water saturation significantly affects the coalbed gas production,with higher water saturation leading to lower production.

Advances and outlook of integrated reservoir-wellbore-pipe network simulation technology

The integrated simulation and optimization technology of reservoir-wellbore-pipe network is developed to reflect the mutual influence and restriction among reservoir engineering,oil production engineering and surface engineering,and to obtain the scheme with minimum conflict and optimal benefit in each step.This technology is based on the concept of global optimization to maximize production and profit,reduce costs and increase benefit.This paper elaborates the current situation of integrated simulation technology of reservoir-wellbore-pipe network both at home and abroad,discusses its correlation with the primary business of Sinopec and its development from three aspects of modeling,cloud platform and intellectualization.Suggestions on its future development are put forward from underlying data,software platform,popularization and application,and cross-border integration to provide means and guidance for the construction of intelligent oil and gas fields.The results show that the integrated simulation of reservoir-wellbore-pipe network can better reflect the optimization requirements of each step,avoid the ineffective operation of field equipment,and effectively improve the efficiency of research and management.Coupling solution,global optimization method and pressure fitting,which can make the simulation results reflect the real situation,are the key technologies for the network.The theoretical technology and main function research of integrated simulation technology have been mature,but the large-scale application and local function improvement of oil and gas fields are yet to be promoted.In the future,the integrated simulation of reservoir-wellbore-pipe network will develop from digitalization to modeling and intellectualization,from local simulation to cloud computing,and from manual intervention to intelligent decision-making.We suggest speeding up the construction of the unified database and model base of the whole underlying platform,strengthening the construction of software integration and integration platform with independent intellectual property rights,speeding up the popularization and application of intelligent oil and gas field demonstration projects,and strengthening the integration of oil and gas industry with artificial intelligence(AI),big data and block chain for its development.

Productivity Prediction Model of Perforated Horizontal Well Based on Permeability Calculation in Near-Well High Permeability Reservoir Area

To improve the productivity of oil wells,perforation technology is usually used to improve the productivity of horizontal wells in oilfield exploitation.After the perforation operation,the perforation channel around the wellbore will form a near-well high-permeability reservoir area with the penetration depth as the radius,that is,the formation has different permeability characteristics with the perforation depth as the dividing line.Generally,the permeability is measured by the permeability tester,but this approach has a high workload and limited application.In this paper,according to the reservoir characteristics of perforated horizontal wells,the reservoir is divided into two areas:the original reservoir area and the near-well high permeability reservoir area.Based on the theory of seepage mechanics and the formula of open hole productivity,the permeability calculation formula of near-well high permeability reservoir area with perforation parameters is deduced.According to the principle of seepage continuity,the seepage is regarded as the synthesis of two directions:the horizontal plane elliptic seepage field and the vertical plane radial seepage field,and the oil well productivity prediction model of the perforated horizontal well is established by partition.The model comparison demonstrates that the model is reasonable and feasible.To calculate and analyze the effect of oil well production and the law of influencing factors,actual production data of the oilfield are substituted into the oil well productivity formula.It can effectively guide the technical process design and effect prediction of perforated horizontal wells.

Impact of material and energy flow variation-based iron /steel ratio on production cost

This paper establishes a model for the production cost of iron and steel enterprise.The variation rule of the production cost versus the iron/steel ratio for two cases, namely,fixed steel production and a fixed amount of molten iron,is analyzed,and the concept of a steel scrap threshold price is proposed.According to the analysis results,when the steel scrap unit price exceeds the steel scrap threshold price, an increase in the iron/steel ratio can reduce the production cost,and vice versa.When the gap between the steel scrap unit price and the steel scrap threshold price is relatively large, the impact of the iron/steel ratio on the production cost is more prominent.According to the calculation example,when steel production is fixed （284 358 t/month）and the steel scrap unit price is 263.2 yuan/t more than the steel scrap threshold price,an increase of 0.01 in the iron/steel ratio causes a monthly production cost reduction of approximately 750 000 yuan （2.63 yuan/t）.When the amount of molten iron is fixed （270 425 t/month）and the steel scrap unit price is 140.7 yuan/t more than the threshold price,an increase of 0.01 in the iron/steel ratio causes a monthly production cost reduction of approximately 430 000 yuan （1.5 yuan/t）.The results indicate that iron and steel enterprise should adjust the production strategy in time when the scrap price fluctuates, and then the production cost will be reduced.

Construction of an Evaluation Indicator System for Civic and Political Applications in Professional Practice Courses Based on CIPP:Taking the VBSE Practical Training Course as an Example

This study takes the virtual business society environment(VBSE)practical training course as a case study and applies the theoretical framework of the context,input,process,product(CIPP)model to construct an evaluation indicator system for the application of civic and politics in professional practice courses.The context evaluation is measured from the support of the VBSE practical training course into course civic and politics,teachers’cognition,and the integration of course objectives;the input evaluation is measured from the matching degree of teachers’civic and political competence,and the matching degree of teaching resources;the process evaluation is measured from the degree of implementation of civic and politics teaching and the degree of students’acceptance;and the product evaluation is measured from the degree of impact of civic and politics teaching.

Influence of mesoscale eddies on primary production in the South China Sea during spring inter-monsoon period

Mesoscale eddies have been suggested to have an impact on biological carbon fixation in the South China Sea （SCS）. However, their overall contribution to primary production during the spring inter-monsoon pe riod is still unknown. Based on large-scale biological and environmental in situ observations and synchro nous remote sensing data, the distribution patterns of phytoplankton biomass and the primary production, and the role of mesoscale eddies in regulating primary production in different eddy-controlled waters were investigated. The results suggested that the surface chlorophyll a concentrations and water column inte grated primary production （IPP） are significantly higher in cyclonic eddies and lower in the anticyclonic eddies as compared to that in non-eddy waters. Although eddies could affect various environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light availability, nutrient supply is suggested to be the most important one through which mesoscale eddies regulated the distribution patterns of phytoplankton biomass and pri mary production. The estimated IPP in cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies are about 29.5% higher and 16.6% lower than the total average in the whole study area, respectively, indicating that the promotion effect of mesoscale cold eddies on the primary production was much stronger than the inhibition effect of the warm eddies per unit area. Overall, mesoscale eddies are crucial physical processes that affect the biological car bon fixation and the distribution pattern of primary production in the SCS open sea, especially during the spring inter-monsoon period.

Forecasting of China's natural gas production and its policy implications

With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation and implementation of clean energy strategies,China＇s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development phase,and natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in China＇s energy structure.This paper uses a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional natural gas production,where accuracy and reasonableness compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion.The forecast shows that China＇s natural gas production will maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic meters a year coming in 2036;in 2020,natural gas production will surpass that of oil to become a more important source of energy.Natural gas will play an important role in optimizing China＇s energy consumption structure and will be a strategic replacement of oil.This will require that exploration and development of conventional natural gas is highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably planned.As well,full use should be made of domestic and international markets.Initiative should also be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional and deepwater gas,which shall form a complement to the development of China＇s conventional natural gas industry.

A stock assessment for Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic using an environmentally dependent surplus production model

The southern Patagonian stock（SPS） of Argentinian shortfin squid, Illex argentinus, is an economically important squid fishery in the Southwest Atlantic. Environmental conditions in the region play an important role in regulating the population dynamics of the I. argentinus population. This study develops an environmentally dependent surplus production（EDSP） model to evaluate the stock abundance of I. argentines during the period of 2000 to 2010. The environmental factors（favorable spawning habitat areas with sea surface temperature of 16–18°C） were assumed to be closely associated with carrying capacity（K） in the EDSP model. Deviance Information Criterion（DIC） values suggest that the estimated EDSP model with environmental factors fits the data better than a Schaefer surplus model without environmental factors under uniform and normal scenarios.The EDSP model estimated a maximum sustainable yield（MSY） from 351 600 t to 685 100 t and a biomass from 1 322 400 t to1 803 000 t. The fishing mortality coefficient of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 was smaller than the values of F（0.1） and F（MSY）. Furthermore, the time series biomass plot of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 shows that the biomass of I.argentinus and this fishery were in a good state and not presently experiencing overfishing. This study suggests that the environmental conditions of the habitat should be considered within squid stock assessment and management.

HEURISTIC MODELING FOR A DYNAMIC AND GOAL PROGRAMMING IN PRODUCTION PLANNING OF CONTINUOUS MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS

At the first sight it seems that advanced operation research is not used enough in continuous production systems as comparison with mass production, batch production and job shop systems, but really in a comprehensive evaluation the advanced operation research techniques can be used in continuous production systems in developing countries very widely, because of initial inadequate plant layout, stage by stage development of production lines, the purchase of second hand machineries from various countries, plurality of customers. A case of production system planning is proposed for a chemical company in which the above mentioned conditions are almost presented. The goals and constraints in this issue are as follows： （1） Minimizing deviation of customer＇s requirements. （2） Maximizing the profit. （3） Minimizing the frequencies of changes in formula production. （4） Minimizing the inventory of final products. （5） Balancing the production sections with regard to rate in production. （6） Limitation in inventory of raw material. The present situation is in such a way that various techniques such as goal programming, linear programming and dynamic programming can be used. But dynamic production programming issues are divided into two categories, at first one with limitation in production capacity and another with unlimited production capacity. For the first category, a systematic and acceptable solution has not been presented yet. Therefore an innovative method is used to convert the dynamic situation to a zero- one model. At last this issue is changed to a goal programming model with non-linear limitations with the use of GRG algorithm and that＇s how it is solved.

RECONFIGURABLE PRODUCTION LINE MODELING AND SCHEDULING USING PETRI NETS AND GENETIC ALGORITHM

In response to the production capacity and functionality variations, a genetic algorithm （GA） embedded with deterministic timed Petri nets（DTPN） for reconfigurable production line（RPL） is proposed to solve its scheduling problem. The basic DTPN modules are presented to model the corresponding variable structures in RPL, and then the scheduling model of the whole RPL is constructed. And in the scheduling algorithm, firing sequences of the Petri nets model are used as chromosomes, thus the selection, crossover, and mutation operator do not deal with the elements in the problem space, but the elements of Petri nets model. Accordingly, all the algorithms for GA operations embedded with Petri nets model are proposed. Moreover, the new weighted single-objective optimization based on reconfiguration cost and E/T is used. The results of a DC motor RPL scheduling suggest that the presented DTPN-GA scheduling algorithm has a significant impact on RPL scheduling, and provide obvious improvements over the conventional scheduling method in practice that meets duedate, minimizes reconfiguration cost, and enhances cost effectivity.

Simulating deforestation of Nepal by area production model

Based on the growth rates of population, Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and agriculture productivity, the areas of deforestation were predicted in Jutp ani village, Chitwan district, Nepal by Area Production Model (APM). Through the APM simulation in this study, all of forestland will be transferred into agricu ltural land in 2030 at the rate of 24% per year on the current productivity. And if the productivity of subsistence food crop is assumed to increase at the rate of 1%, the productivity of market crop and export crop increase at the rate of 2% annually, deforestation rate will decrease to 17% per year, but only 124 hm2 forest land will be left till 2038. The agriculture productivity is a very impor tant factor for the deforestation, so intensification of agriculture management is more important.

Safe production model for small mines

Presented a 'safe production model' that can be adopted by small mine opera- tors to achieve their production targets safely and efficiently.The model consists of eight elements ranging from management commitment and leadership to safety account-ability and communication.The model is developed considering the mine operators' resource limitations and the workers' training needs.The study concludes with a summary of a sample survey that is conducted to validate the model and estimate a parameter for each mine and determine its position in the safe production scale.

A Model Comparison Study of Fragment Production in 140 A MeV 58,64Ni+9Be Reactions

The cross sections of fragments produced in the 140 A MeV58,64Ni＋9 Be projectile fragmentation reactions are calculated by using the antisymmetrized molecular dynamics （AMD） model, the modified statistical abrasion- ablation （SAA） model, and the empirical EPAX2/EPAX3 formulae. The Gogny-gO interaction is taken as the effective nucleon-nucleon interaction in the AMD calculation, and the decays of fragments obtained from the AMD results are calculated by using the GEMINI code. The calculated cross sections of fragments are compared.

Analysis in Results Production Mode of Chinese Media Type Think-Tank

Purpose/Significance:Through the analysis in the results production mode of the Chinese media type think-tank based on the media operation structure and communication platform,found there are structure and cooperation problems of spread and research line,team cooperation and transformation problem of research and spread,research production and media production positioning problem,and spread channel widening problem,this paper tries to provide a useful suggestions for the current traditional media transformation encourage the media type think tank go abroad,raise the international influence,personalize the products,make it into Boutique,become a brand and the development strategy of the new think-tank with Chinese characteristics.Methods/Processes:analysis the results production model of media-based think tank from four aspects:category,characteristics,existing problems and development trend.Results/conclusion:the achievements of Chinese media-based think tanks will follow a new development trend through the establish of cooperative innovation system,achievements make and press system of“all media tendency”,market-oriented transformation theory,brand strategy,and exerting international influence.

The Meteorological Prediction Model of Lemon Production in Anyue County Based on Correlation

Using the meteorological data during 1971- 2013 and lemon growth and yield data during 2003- 2013 in Anyue,the suitability problem of lemon growth and correlation problem between meteorological factors and lemon growth in Anyue area were studied. According to relevance between the selected meteorological factors and yield of lemon,meteorological prediction model of lemon yield was established in Anyue,and the prediction accuracy was higher. The research had certain guiding significance for management work of lemon production in Anyue area.