PROJECTION PURSUIT PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS AND ITS APPLICATION TO METEOROLOGY

Projection Pursuit (PP) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method is herein introduced and applied to the field of meteorology for the first time. Some problems relevant to meteorological application are dis- cussed in detail and comparisons with EOF method are made with the emphasis on robustness.

The Impact of Trade Policy Arrangements on China and World Economy in Post-MFA Era

With Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA) eliminated on Dec 31, 2004, the debates and concerns on the trade of textile and apparel have been growing. The objective of this study is to examine the impacts of alternative policies on China and World economy after canceling MFA. Based on a general equilibrium model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), study shows that China and World will significantly benefit from further trade liberalization. However, if USA, EU and Canada converted to TBT to restrict import, the gains from eliminating MFA would be largely offset. Based on our analysis, some policy implications are discussed.

Scenario-based approach for project portfolio selection in army engineering and manufacturing development

The decisions concerning portfolio selection for army engineering and manufacturing development projects determine the benefit of those projects to the country concerned.Projects are typically selected based on ex ante estimates of future return values,which are usually difficult to specify or only generated after project launch.A scenario-based approach is presented here to address the problem of selecting a project portfolio under incomplete scenario information and interdependency constraints.In the first stage,the relevant dominance concepts of scenario analysis are studied to handle the incomplete information.Then,a scenario-based programming approach is proposed to handle the interdependencies to obtain the projects,whose return values are multi-criteria with interval data.Finally,an illustrative example of army engineering and manufacturing development shows the feasibility and advantages of the scenario-based multi-objective programming approach.

Cost Risk Appraisal： An Application of Project RiskManagement Process in Libyan Construction Projects

Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks that may affect these costs. An implementation of PRM （project risk management） process on regional construction project has been carried out to maximize the likelihood of project meeting its objectives within its constraints. Qualitative and quantitative risk analyses have been carried out. The qualitative analysis is presented in a table that shows top ranked risks in Libyan construction projects based on probability-impact grid technique. In quantitative risk analyses, Mont Carlo simulation technique has been conducted to quantify and evaluate the overall level of risk exposure associated with the project completion cost. A project simulation uses a model that translates cost uncertainties into their potential impact on project objectives. A frequency curve model that represents simulation results of project completion costs has been constructed. The frequency curve model shows all possible outcomes of expected project cost at different probabilities. Project manager or decision maker can select the appropriate project budget. If a probability of 0.95 confident project budget is selected that means cost overrun risk can be minimized to a probability of 0.05. It is very helpful for project manager to take decisions based on information that shows project completion cost and its associated probability rather than usin single information of estimated cost.

A General Equilibrium Model for Energy Policy Evaluation Using GTAP-E for Vietnam

In the past several years, there has been growing concern on the scarcity of energy resources, the volatility of energy prices, and the impact of energy sector on climate change. In this context, energy-environment models designed for analysis of energy systems have become more important. In this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium Model （CGE） using an energy-environmental version of Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） model （known as GTAP-E） for Vietnam is presented based on the GTAP Data Base version 7. The model is developed following the original structure and the revised version of the GTAP-E model. This model is used to simulate the adoption of carbon tax for Vietnam for the base year of 2004. The economy-level and detailed sector-specific effects are also examined considering energy intensive and non-intensive sectors. Simulation results show the negative influences of different carbon tax scenarios to Vietnam＇s economy. The results would also indicate the potential of carbon taxation as a driving force for the mitigation of carbon dioxide and for new and renewable energy promotion in Vietnam. In fact, this study is the first simulation exercise of energy-environmental policy for the Vietnamese case.

Long-Term Trend of Temperature Derived by Statistical Downscaling Based on EOF Analysis

This study analyzes the ability of statistical downscaling models in simulating the long-term trend of temperature and associated causes at 48 stations in northern China in January and July 1961-2006. The statistical downscaling models are established through multiple stepwise regressions of predictor principal components （PCs）. The predictors in this study include temperature at 850 hPa （T850）, and the combination of geopotential height and temperature at 850 hPa （H850＋T850）. For the combined predictors, Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analysis of the two combined fields is conducted. The modeling results from HadCM3 and ECHAM5 under 20C3M and SERS A1B scenarios are applied to the statistical downscaling models to construct local present and future climate change scenarios for each station, during which the projected EOF analysis and the common EOF analysis are utilized to derive EOFs and PCs from the two general circulation models （GCMs）. The results show that （1） the trend of temperature in July is associated with the first EOF pattern of the two combined fields, not with the EOF pattern of the regional warming; （2） although HadCM3 and ECHAM5 have simulated a false long-term trend of temperature, the statistical downscaling method is able to well reproduce a correct long-term trend of temperature in northern China due to the successful simulation of the trend of main PCs of the GCM predictors; （3） when the two-field combination and the projected EOF analysis are used, temperature change scenarios have a similar seasonal variation to the observed one; and （4） compared with the results of the common EOF analysis, those of the projected EOF analysis have been much more strongly determined by the observed large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

RISK ANALYSIS OF EROSION BELOW THE DAM OF ER TEN PROJECT

The erosion risk below the dam of Er Tan project, which comes from the flood relief of the spillway and mid- dle outlet spillway, is analysed by risk analysis theory. According to the analysis results, it is imperative that the stilling pool below the dam should be adopted to protect river bed from erosion. From the view of risk-protection and economy, the Er Tan project design scheme that adopted the stilling pool is coincident with safe and economical rules. It is efficient and scientific. The erosion risk analysis method used in the paper can be used in other projects. The results are certainly of reference value and great significance for engineering design.