Discussions on the Eliminating and Controlling of the Public Risks in Cyberspace

Dual public risks existing in the interconversion between the virtual space and the real space create a new perspective to understand the orders in cyberspace. As an important means to predict and avoid public risks, orders in cyberspace have three uncertainties： lack of information, information surplus, and information distortion, which may lead to the failure of the prediction. Orders in present-day cyberspace, such as technology controlling, legal controlling, and made orders further increase the public risks. Against such backdrop, according to the logic of the mutual conversion between real and virtual society, the reconstruction of the orders in cyberspace should be conducted through three paths： from virtual to real space, from real to virtual space, and from virtual to virtual space, so the public risks could be reduced and avoided to the maximum extent.

Linking Perceived Risk of Public Health Emergency to Psychological Distress among Chinese College Students: The Chain Mediation Role of Balanced Time Perspective and Negative Coping Styles

Background:With public health emergencies(PHE)worldwide increasing,the perceived risk of PHE has been one of the critical factors influencing college students’psychological distress.However,the mechanisms by which the perceived risk of PHE affects college students’psychological distress are not clear.The study’s purpose was to investigate the mediation roles of deviation from a balanced time perspective(DBTP)and negative coping styles between the perceived risk of PHE and psychological distress.Methods:A convenience sampling method was used to survey 1054 Chinese college students with self-reporting.Data was collected using the Public Risk Perception Scale(PRPS),the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory(ZTPI),the Simplified Coping Style Questionnaire(SCSQ),the PHE Anxiety Scale,and the Chinese version of the Patient Health Questionnaire(PHQ).The associations between the perceived risk of PHE,DBTP,negative coping styles,and psychological distress were clarified using the correlation analysis.Additionally,the mediating roles of DBTP and negative coping styles between the perceived risk of PHE and psychological distress were investigated using a structural equation model.Results:The findings revealed low to moderate correlations between the variables studied.Students’perceived risk of PHE was a positive predictor of their psychological distress(b=0.219,p<0.01).DBTP and negative coping styles played chain mediation roles between them with the effect being 0.009 and a 95%Boot CI of[0.003,0.023].This chain mediation model had an excellent fit index(χ^(2)/df=4.732,CFI=0.973,TLI=0.930,RMSEA=0.048,SRMR=0.047).Conclusion:These findings showed how the perceived risk of PHE affected college students’psychological distress.Specifically,these results suggested that improving students’mental ability to switch effectively among different time perspectives depending on task features and situational considerations and reducing their negative coping styles might be effective ways to promote their mental health.

基于LDSCR-at-Risk的PPP项目可融资性评价

通过分析传统的偿债备付率适用性及政府和社会资本合作(PPP)项目的特点,认为传统的偿债备付率不适合于PPP项目可融资性评价。因此,为了评价中长期债务的可融资性,提出了“平准化偿债备付率”(LDSCR),即在借款偿还期内,各年可用于还本付息的资金折现到起始点的现值与贷款金额的比值;进一步提出“风险下的平准化偿债备付率”(LDSCR-at-Risk),即在给定的置信度下的平准化偿债备付率。运用蒙特卡洛仿真进行验证,结果表明:LDSCR-at-Risk可用于PPP项目的可融资性评价,且在可以评价具有风险的PPP项目可融资性的同时,还避免了如何确定项目的最低偿债备付率的问题,从而促进PPP项目融资的发展。

Comprehensive Analysis of Cancer Incidence and Mortality Trends in Costa Rica: Implications for Public Health

This commentary delves into the evolving landscape of cancer incidence and mortality in Costa Rica, presenting a comprehensive analysis of the data. Key findings reveal a concerning upward trajectory in cancer incidence rates, placing Costa Rica at the forefront within Central America. While prostate cancer and breast cancer dominate, disparities emerge when scrutinizing gender-specific trends. Notably, stomach and cervical cancers show declines, potentially attributed to targeted interventions. However, colorectal and liver cancers witness mortality increases, necessitating strategic responses. Geographical disparities persist across provinces, highlighting the need for equitable healthcare access. In conclusion, this commentary underscores the urgency of addressing the burgeoning cancer burden in Costa Rica, calling for evidence-based interventions and collaborative efforts on a global scale.

An assessment of public services based on public risks and fiscal risks——Public finance as the foundation and pillar of state governance

Public finance is the foundation and pillar of state governance,and the core of state governance is public risk management.On one hand,public finance provides public services using public revenue and manages public risk directly.On the other hand,public fiscal risk can serve as a policy instrument for public risk management.Public risk,public services,public revenue,and fiscal risk mutually reinforce and set each other off.Therefore,striking a balance between fiscal risk and public risk is of great importance.To minimize public risk under the constraint of fiscal risk is the fundamental basis of the assessment of public services.Even though the constraint of fiscal risk may vary with the requirement of minimizing public risk,there is a limit.Thus,improving the efficiency of the provision of public services,or in other words,raising the effectiveness of public risk management,may relieve the pressure of fiscal risk and obtain a more appropriate balance between public risk and fiscal risk.

Construction of Public Security Risk Governance System under the View of Risk Society Theory

With the development of economy,China has to fight against the increasing public security risk. The theory of risk society points out that the traditional system of hierarchical management should be transformed into the governance system led by government and participated in by multiple parties to avoid and reduce risk in modern society. In order to achieve modernization of the national governance system and capacity,we have to deal with these two important subjects,that is,what can we learn from the Western risk society theory and how to establish a scientific and efficient public security risk management system based on the characteristics of modern public security risk.

Influence Factors Concept Model for Public Participation in Nanotechnology Risk Communication

Based on risk social cognition theory and planned behavior theory, the influence factors of the public participation in the nanotechnology risk communication are analyzed,and the concept model is presented to analyze their relationships and functional mechanism. In the model,the risk communication behaviors are divided into two variables of the public opinion expression and information acquisition,and the subjective norm divided into the internal and external social networks. Then the questionnaire is designed so as to verify the proposed model and analyze their relationships. The survey data are analyzed using SMART PLS software. The validity analysis shows that the questionnaire has a high convergence and discriminant validity. In addition, the Cronbach'a coefficient of each item is more than 0. 70,which shows the questionnaire has a high credibility. Based on the statistical data analysis, relationships of the influence factors are obtained.Further,the influence path model of the public attitude,intention,self regulation and behavior control in the risk communication is established. According to the Bootstrap algorithm in SMART,the path coefficient and its explanation variance of each influence factor are obtained. The calculation results show that the explanation variance values are all bigger than 10% and the path is reliable.Based on the path model, the influence path and function relationships of the participation attitude, subjective norm and behavior control on the participation intention and behavior are obtained. This will provide theoretical and data supports for the risk management and strategy making of the public participation in nanotechnology risk communication.

Typology and Risk Factors of Public Road Accidents in Kinshasa with Its Two Peripheral Areas (Mongata and Kasangulu) from March to May 2017

Introduction: Road traffic put people at risks and needs health education to avoid accidents and deaths. This article aimed to build up a typology of public road accidents (public road accidents) and risk factors associated with in the provincial city of Kinshasa and its peripheral cities (Kasangulu and Mongata), to identify the profiles of the vehicles and people involved in these public road accidents. Method: We conducted a prospective eco-analytical study on a stratified random sample whose size was determined by the Fischer formula. Results: Overall, from March to May 2017, we witnessed an incidence of public road accidents cases ranging from 139 public road accidents cases in the city province of Kinshasa and its two peripheral areas: road axes of high concentration: Rte Blvd Lumumba-Airport;Rte Poids Lourd-Pont Matete, the axes of medium concentration: Rte N21-IMBU, Rte Blvd 30 juin-socimat;Rte Matadi-Kasangulu toll;Rte Université-Intendance, Rte By Pass-triangle Maman Mobutu-Kintambo (Rte-Matadi)-Toll/lère virage-Triangle Maman Mobutu and those of low concentration were: Rte du tourisme/Mimoza-Mbudi;Rte Matadi-Terrain Siwabanza. Conclusion: In these areas, public road accidents are a real public health problem that deserves sustained attention from all and especially from decision makers. Interventions must concern the HVE accident complex.

Change in Public Administration from the Perspective of Risk Society

In the context of risk society, public administration is facing more complex circumstances, which will inevitably call for an overall restructuring. In the dimension of circumstances, extreme disasters, transboundary crisis and emerging risks create the complex context of public administration. In the dimension of structure, the original structure of public administration still exists but its mode of operation is subject to change. In the meantime, the adaptation to complex scenarios of potential risk society will bring innovations to the structure of public administration so that the structure can develop from a hierarchical mode to a network mode on the whole. In the dimension of process, driven by shifts between order and chaos within the social system, public administration will also undergo frequent shifts between routine administration and emergency management. The core of public administration in the context of risk society is its emergency management, which needs to strike a balance between security and development at the value goal level. As to institutional design, emergency management should be characteristic of an all-hazards approach, multi-organization participation, whole-process management and overall adaptive management. Both the theory and the practice of public administration in China need to be reviewed to address challenges of risk society and explore a new approach that is suitable for China's political situation and can be included into our global risk society governance.

城市重大公共卫生风险全过程防控体系构建

在复杂多样的城市风险中,重大公共卫生风险是影响力与破坏力较为严重的一种,探索建立符合中国城市发展进程的城市重大公共卫生风险全过程防控体系迫在眉睫。遵循风险发生过程,以“全周期管理”理念为指引,结合4R危机管理理论、风险管理理论和整体性治理理论,构建重大公共卫生风险全过程动态防控理论框架,同时立足于“以体系为核心”和“以风险为主线”的研究视角,深入分析“全过程动态”的核心意识,将风险防控过程划分为“全面风险评估预警—精准动态响应控制”,进而探讨构建包含风险识别、风险评估、风险评价和决策支持的风险评估体系,以及包含应急响应和常态化控制的风险控制机制的实践路径,提升中国重大公共卫生风险治理水平。

公立医院廉政风险点分析及防范对策研究

廉政风险管理是新时代公立医院党的建设重要工作之一。本文通过对中国裁判文书网中发布的2020年和2021年公立医院腐败案件判决进行统计和分析,归纳总结公立医院易发高发的廉政风险点,根据新时代公立医院高质量发展的要求,提出了风险防范策略,以期为公立医院未来廉政风险管理提供新的思路和对策。

公立医院廉洁风险防控量化评价研究

目的探讨公立医院廉洁风险防控量化评价,为提升公立医院廉洁风险防控工作质效提供参考。方法自行设计《公立医院权力事项廉洁风险防控检查标准》,从权力运行流程梳理清晰程度、廉洁风险点查找准确程度、防控措施有力程度三个方面对四川大学华西医院各部门/临床医技科室提供的权力事项廉洁风险防控进行评分和评级。结果共检查了236个权力事项的廉洁风险防控情况,根据检查标准,57项评为一档,103项评为二档,76项评为三档,占比分别为24.15%、43.64%和32.20%。经检查,全院236个权力事项的廉洁风险防控检查得分为(5.82±1.92)分,其中,流程维度得分为(2.11±0.75)分,风险点查找维度得分为(1.89±0.75)分,防控维度得分为(1.89±0.79)分,体现出部分单位的工作流程不够清晰、个别风险点查找不准确、防控措施不具体等问题。结论医院要结合自身工作环节的问题,从思想、行为、成效和考核评价几方面入手,着力思考廉洁风险防控长期建设中的具体化、精准化、显著化和可量化。

论风险预防原则在环境司法适用中的谦抑性

风险预防原则在当下环境法中的司法适用,游走在能动与谦抑之间,且呈现出过度能动倾向。“谦抑性”是对风险预防原则适用“分寸”之理论回应,其法理基础可从风险预防原则的规范基础、固有局限以及司法属性等层面予以诠释。风险预防原则在环境法中适用的谦抑性可被解构为“补充性”“有限性”“温和性”和“内敛性”四要素,由此推理出风险预防原则在环境司法中谦抑性适用的制度框架:在实体上,应促成风险预防原则在环境法典上的体现,只有在对照生态环境风险标准的前提下存在科学不确定性时,方能动用风险预防原则,其适用遵循整体温和的类型化理路。在程序上,诉讼推进阶段下的司法适用应严守职权探知界限,配置阶段化举证责任和类型化的诉前程序;案件裁判阶段下的司法适用不得超出认定事实范围,同时应对援引的风险预防原则附加适用理由。

论湿地保护领域中的预防性环境行政公益诉讼

传统的湿地保护模式具有“行政执法人员的机会主义”“多元规制机构的协调难题”“持续性的运行成本支出”等相对劣势。为实现对于湿地生态的全过程保护,督促湿地行政主管部门积极履职,有必要将预防性环境行政公益诉讼纳入湿地保护体系。应通过立法或司法解释,明确预防性环境行政公益诉讼的提起范围、提出时机和诉讼程序。

基于FMEA的药剂科岗位廉政风险防控

目的:降低药剂科岗位廉政风险。方法:运用失效模式与效应分析方法评估药剂科各岗位流程中潜在的失效模式,将各班组岗位相似的失效模式进行整合,进而分析整改措施并实施;将实施前后失效模式优先风险值(RPN)进行配对t检验。结果:实施整改措施后,药剂科各岗位RPN值显著下降(P<0.05)。结论:失效模式与效应分析法的运用和改进措施的实施可以有效降低药剂科岗位廉政风险,促进药剂科开展科学、有效的廉政建设工作。

模糊赋权-TOPSIS在流域盆地洪泛区洪水风险测度中的应用

沿海沿河流低洼地区洪涝频发、损失严重,严重影响流域公共安全,有效识别流域盆地洪泛区内的洪水风险分布至关重要。传统基于单一多准则决策方法的风险测度模型无法兼顾决策者的有效经验和决策的客观合理性,同时计算所得的绝对洪水风险值无法准确识别潜在洪水风险。为解决这一问题,提出了一种优化的集成模型,以澳大利亚乔治河流域洪泛区为例开展洪水风险测度研究。从危险性、暴露度和脆弱性三个维度选取12个风险指标,采用模糊逻辑改进的三角模糊层次分析法优化权重计算过程、集成接近理想点法中相对邻近度的概念完成相对洪水风险测度,最后可视化分析了洪水风险的空间分布状况。结果表明,集成模型识别出的中等及以上风险区比单一三角模糊层次分析法多17.1%,比接近理想点法多15.7%,在识别洪泛区潜在风险上表现更优。利用历史灾情验证集证明了模型的优越性。该研究框架可为流域洪泛区的防灾策略制定提供决策支持。

交互视角下重大突发公共卫生事件风险影响因素识别

为了有效识别重大突发公共卫生事件风险的影响因素,基于交互视角,从事件特征、预防能力、控制能力、恢复能力等4个方面,构建了包含4个一级指标、18个二级指标的重大突发公共卫生事件风险影响因素的指标体系。在此基础上,运用模糊DEMATEL方法识别影响重大突发公共卫生事件风险的关键因素。最后,通过实际案例,对重大突发公共卫生事件风险影响因素的影响度、原因度和中心度进行了分析,识别出关键影响因素,验证了方法的可行性。

信息生态视域下大型体育赛事舆情风险评估体系、结构框架及管控措施

大型体育赛事舆情作为网络社会中愈发受到受众关注和参与的常态化存在,舆情类型多样、舆情演化和衍生风险动态多变。对舆情风险进行科学评估和结构分析,并提出管控措施,有助于形成良好的大型体育赛事信息生态。本文基于信息生态理论,构建大型体育赛事舆情风险评估指标体系,共包含4个一级指标、12个二级指标以及37个三级指标;采用德尔菲法和层次分析法对指标体系进行检验和权重测算;构建大型体育赛事舆情风险结构框架,包括舆情主体的群体极化风险、舆情本体的演进扩散风险、舆情客体的危机传导风险以及舆情环境的信息失序风险。基于此,提出明确舆情主体需求、重视舆情本体表现、洞察舆情客体属性、优化赛事舆情环境等风险管控措施,为大型体育赛事舆情风险的科学评估、结构分析及有效管控提供参考。

基于ISM和AHP的城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知关键影响因素分析

深入研究城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知关键影响因素,对政府调节公众风险感知、提升应急管理能力具有重要意义。首先构建城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知影响因素指标体系,然后利用解释结构模型(ISM)方法对影响因素进行层次分析,并采用层次分析(AHP)法对各层次影响因素的影响力大小进行分析,确定城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知的关键影响因素。结果表明:城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知的影响因素分为直接因素、间接因素和根本因素三个层次;应急决策指挥和感染死亡情况是关键直接影响因素,医疗救援能力和应急物资保障是关键间接影响因素,文化水平、技能水平和公共设施完善度是关键根本影响因素。针对关键影响因素,提出建立和完善预警系统、普及宣传应急知识和加大对城乡结合部地区医疗机构的投入等措施,为政府应急管理提供决策支持。

城市工程建设项目风险及其数智治理研究——基于利益相关者分析框架

城市工程建设项目涉及具体的城市改造和开发工作,不同利益主体对城市工程建设项目存在差异性利益诉求,其存在的利益冲突和风险问题可能影响到工程建设项目的顺利推进以及城市公共安全。为了确保城市的可持续发展和社区居民的安居乐业,必须有效地治理和应对城市工程建设项目中的相关风险。政府和居民作为核心利益相关者,在城市工程建设项目中应协力互助;商户和租户作为潜在利益相关者,应在城市工程建设项目中进行多方利益协商;技术机构和公共平台作为边缘利益相关者,需加强技术安全建设,并建立更为完善的平台机制。