期刊文献+
共找到1,040篇文章
< 1 2 52 >
每页显示 20 50 100
Integrating Virtual Reality and Energy Analysis with BIM to Optimize Window-to-Wall Ratio and Building’s Orientation for Age-in-Place Design at the Conceptual Stage
1
作者 Vafa Rostamiasl Ahmad Jrade 《Open Journal of Civil Engineering》 2024年第3期305-333,共29页
This study unfolds an innovative approach aiming to address the critical role of building design in global energy consumption, focusing on optimizing the Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR), since buildings account for approxi... This study unfolds an innovative approach aiming to address the critical role of building design in global energy consumption, focusing on optimizing the Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR), since buildings account for approximately 30% of total energy consumed worldwide. The greatest contributors to energy expenditure in buildings are internal artificial lighting and heating and cooling systems. The WWR, determined by the proportion of the building’s glazed area to its wall area, is a significant factor influencing energy efficiency and minimizing energy load. This study introduces the development of a semi-automated computer model designed to offer a real-time, interactive simulation environment, fostering improving communication and engagement between designers and owners. The said model serves to optimize both the WWR and building orientation to align with occupants’ needs and expectations, subsequently reducing annual energy consumption and enhancing the overall building energy performance. The integrated model incorporates Building Information Modeling (BIM), Virtual Reality (VR), and Energy Analysis tools deployed at the conceptual design stage, allowing for the amalgamation of owners’ inputs in the design process and facilitating the creation of more realistic and effective design strategies. 展开更多
关键词 Building Information modeling (BIM) Virtual Reality (VR) Game Engine Energy analysis Window-to-Wall Ratio Building Orientation Computer integration and Automation
下载PDF
INTEGRATED ANALYSIS APPROACHES TO ROCK MECHANICS PROBLEMS 被引量:8
2
作者 Hudson J A 《岩石力学与工程学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2002年第11期1702-1707,共6页
In order to effectively cope with exponent increase of the complexity faced to the rock mechanics analysis problems and the large incompatibility existing between the information level required to model the rock mass ... In order to effectively cope with exponent increase of the complexity faced to the rock mechanics analysis problems and the large incompatibility existing between the information level required to model the rock mass and engineering and our obtainable information level at hand,the integrated approaches with intelligent characters are proposed. Many previous standard methods,such as precedent type analysis,rock classification,analytic method stress-based,basic numerical methods (BEM,FEM,DEM,hybrid),and their extended numerical methods (fully coupled) to be developed,can be selected respectively or integrated accordingly. It is alternative to develop basic/fully integrated system,and internet-based approaches. These novel methods can also be selected or integrated each other or with the standard methods to perform rock mechanics analysis. Some key techniques to develop these alternative methods are discussed. It may focus in future on developing fully integrated systems and internet-based approaches. Developing an environmental,virtual facility/space shall be firstly done for this collaborative research on internet. 展开更多
关键词 rock mechanics analysis integrated approach expert system rock engineering system neural network numerical method coupled modeling Internet-based approaches
下载PDF
The Computer Aided Integrated Design and Analysis of Oil Tank in Vehicle 被引量:1
3
作者 CHEN Xu 1, CHEN Yong-guang 2 (1. Mechanical Engineering Institute, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China 2. Logistical Engineering University, Chongqing 400016, China) 《厦门大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2002年第S1期269-,共1页
This paper creates 3D solid model and assembly of U RJ 92-6 oil tank and analyses its strength by integrated CAD/CAE/CAM software I-D EAS. Through integrated simulation in computer, design efficiency and quality of oi... This paper creates 3D solid model and assembly of U RJ 92-6 oil tank and analyses its strength by integrated CAD/CAE/CAM software I-D EAS. Through integrated simulation in computer, design efficiency and quality of oil tank is greatly improved. Adopting integrated CAD/CAE/CAM software to carry out integrated research to equ ipment and products, we will be able to take overall analysis in aspects of 3-D solid modeling, pre-assembly and strength, etc., to realize non-paper designi ng and parallel designing. Problems can be found and settled during designing, w hich will increase designing efficiency and one-time success rate and realize o ptimum designing for products. 展开更多
关键词 oil tank solid modeling finite element analysis integrated design
下载PDF
System modeling and dynamic analysis of ISG hybrid power shafting
4
作者 周久焱 孙逢春 +1 位作者 程夕明 王志福 《Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology》 EI CAS 2013年第2期163-170,共8页
A system model is established to analyze the dynamic performance of an integrated starter and generator (ISG) hybrid power shafting. The model couples the electromechanical coupling shaft dynamics, the bearing hydro... A system model is established to analyze the dynamic performance of an integrated starter and generator (ISG) hybrid power shafting. The model couples the electromechanical coupling shaft dynamics, the bearing hydrodynamic lubrication and the engine block stiffness. The model is com- pared with the model based on ADAMS or the model neglecting the bearing hydrodynamics. The bearing eccentricity and the oil film pressure have been calculated under different hybrid conditions or at the different motor power levels. It' s found that the bearing hydrodynamics decreases the cal- culation results of the bearing peak load. Changes of the hybrid conditions or the motor power have no significant effect on the main bearing, but have impact on the motor bearing. A hybrid power sys- tem composed of a 1.6 L engine and a 45 kW ISG motor can operate safely. 展开更多
关键词 system modeling integrated starter and generator (ISG) hybrid power system dy-namic analysis
下载PDF
Game Modeling and Strategic Behavior Analysis in Public Goods Provision: Evidence From Water Resources Management
5
《Journal of Mathematics and System Science》 2014年第2期69-82,共14页
The utility of public goods vary with the behaviors of stakeholders (players), and it is appropriate to study effective supply and management of public goods with game modeling and analysis. The comparison effect is... The utility of public goods vary with the behaviors of stakeholders (players), and it is appropriate to study effective supply and management of public goods with game modeling and analysis. The comparison effect is the key issue of public good provision both in theoretical analysis and in practice. One major contribution of the paper is the extension of Clarke-Groves mechanism, to achieve which strategic behavior analysis is applied through the analysis and the comparison effect among various stakeholders in different stages is created and highly emphasized. In the first section of this paper, the definition of integrated water resources management (IWRM), the importance of stakeholder participation as well as some models and methods that have been applied are illustrated. Following this, the framework of analysis is elaborated, in which the scenario and aims are shown, and it is claimed that game theory is the main approach, which includes both cooperative games and non-cooperative games. To achieve the aims of the public project, five approaches from game theory are able to cover the entire process of the project, and the fourth approach on interest compensation mechanism is the highlight of the research. After this, the interest compensation mechanism is demonstrated in the model section, and is proved to be an incentive compatible mechanism that makes each stakeholder choose to behave in accordance with the interest of the entire project. The Clarke-Groves mechanism is applied and extended in establishing the model, and the utility change by the comparison among stakeholders (defined as the comparison effect) is involved. In the application section, a water project is analyzed in consideration of various stakeholders, and other possible applications are also indicated. 展开更多
关键词 Game modeling strategic behavior analysis integrated water resources management (IWRM) interest compensationmechanism the Clarke-Groves mechanism.
下载PDF
Influence of Sino-US Agricultural Trade on China’s Total Agricultural Output Value Based on Cointegration Model
6
作者 Zhiyao LI 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2019年第5期7-10,共4页
According to the data of the total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States from 2009 to 2018 and the general description of agriculture in China,this paper adopts the method of econometric m... According to the data of the total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States from 2009 to 2018 and the general description of agriculture in China,this paper adopts the method of econometric model to make a detailed analysis of the agricultural trade between China and the United States by using cointegration analysis,Granger causality test and error correction model in order to explore the impact of agricultural trade between China and the United States on China’s agricultural development. The results of empirical analysis show that there is a balanced relationship between the trade of agricultural products between China and the United States and the development of agriculture in China. The total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States affects the development of China’s agriculture.In addition,in the short term,if the short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium,then the error correction term will reverse it with strength of 0. 378,so that the non-equilibrium state will gradually return to the equilibrium state. 展开更多
关键词 TRADE of agricultural products between China and the UNITED STATES Econometric model CO-integration analysis Error correction model
下载PDF
Integration system research and development for three-dimensional laser scanning information visualization in goaf 被引量:1
7
作者 罗周全 黄俊杰 +2 位作者 罗贞焱 汪伟 秦亚光 《Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2016年第7期1985-1994,共10页
An integration processing system of three-dimensional laser scanning information visualization in goaf was developed. It is provided with multiple functions, such as laser scanning information management for goaf, clo... An integration processing system of three-dimensional laser scanning information visualization in goaf was developed. It is provided with multiple functions, such as laser scanning information management for goaf, cloud data de-noising optimization, construction, display and operation of three-dimensional model, model editing, profile generation, calculation of goaf volume and roof area, Boolean calculation among models and interaction with the third party soft ware. Concerning this system with a concise interface, plentiful data input/output interfaces, it is featured with high integration, simple and convenient operations of applications. According to practice, in addition to being well-adapted, this system is favorably reliable and stable. 展开更多
关键词 GOAF laser scanning visualization integration system 1 Introduction The goaf formed through underground mining of mineral resources is one of the main disaster sources threatening mine safety production [1 2]. Effective implementation of goaf detection and accurate acquisition of its spatial characteristics including the three-dimensional morphology the spatial position as well as the actual boundary and volume are important basis to analyze predict and control disasters caused by goaf. In recent years three-dimensional laser scanning technology has been effectively applied in goaf detection [3 4]. Large quantities of point cloud data that are acquired for goaf by means of the three-dimensional laser scanning system are processed relying on relevant engineering software to generate a three-dimensional model for goaf. Then a general modeling analysis and processing instrument are introduced to perform subsequent three-dimensional analysis and calculation [5 6]. Moreover related development is also carried out in fields such as three-dimensional detection and visualization of hazardous goaf detection and analysis of unstable failures in goaf extraction boundary acquisition in stope visualized computation of damage index aided design for pillar recovery and three-dimensional detection
下载PDF
Analysis on the Theory of Blow-up and Verification on Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rain in Sichuan Basin
8
作者 邓兵奎 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第12期52-55,共4页
By dint of V-3θ diagram from the Blown-up theory,a continuous heavy rain process in western Sichuan basin from July 14 to 17,2009 is analyzed in this paper.Situation field and precipitation of ECWMF and T213 are veri... By dint of V-3θ diagram from the Blown-up theory,a continuous heavy rain process in western Sichuan basin from July 14 to 17,2009 is analyzed in this paper.Situation field and precipitation of ECWMF and T213 are verified and discussed.Results show that V-3θ diagram can describe the heavy rain process accurately.Combining with additional conventional weather charts,experience and numerical forecast products,the heavy rain falling area is determined.The forecast accuracy of situation field of EC is significantly higher than that of T213 and the forecast accuracy of T213 for heavy rain forecast is relatively low. 展开更多
关键词 Blown-up theory V-3θ diagram Western Sichuan obstructive model Interpretation and analysis integrated Forecast China
下载PDF
Gross errors identification and correction of in-vehicle MEMS gyroscope based on time series analysis 被引量:3
9
作者 陈伟 李旭 张为公 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2013年第2期170-174,共5页
This paper presents a novel approach to identify and correct the gross errors in the microelectromechanical system (MEMS) gyroscope used in ground vehicles by means of time series analysis. According to the characte... This paper presents a novel approach to identify and correct the gross errors in the microelectromechanical system (MEMS) gyroscope used in ground vehicles by means of time series analysis. According to the characteristics of autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF), an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is roughly constructed. The rough model is optimized by combining with Akaike's information criterion (A/C), and the parameters are estimated based on the least squares algorithm. After validation testing, the model is utilized to forecast the next output on the basis of the previous measurement. When the difference between the measurement and its prediction exceeds the defined threshold, the measurement is identified as a gross error and remedied by its prediction. A case study on the yaw rate is performed to illustrate the developed algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively distinguish gross errors and make some reasonable remedies. 展开更多
关键词 microelectromechanical system (MEMS)gyroscope autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model time series analysis gross errors
下载PDF
A unified model for diagnosing energy usage abnormalities in regional integrated energy service systems 被引量:4
10
作者 Di Wu Hongwei Ma +3 位作者 Jianrong Mao Kaiqi Ma Hao Zheng Zhiqian Bo 《Global Energy Interconnection》 2019年第4期361-367,共7页
An integrated energy service company in an industrial park or commercial building is responsible for managing all energy sources in their local region, including electricity, water, gas, heating, and cooling. To reduc... An integrated energy service company in an industrial park or commercial building is responsible for managing all energy sources in their local region, including electricity, water, gas, heating, and cooling. To reduce energy wastage and increase energy utilization, it is necessary to perform efficiency analyses and diagnoses on integrated energy systems(IESs). However, the integrated energy data necessary for energy efficiency analyses and diagnoses come from a wide variety of instruments, each of which uses different transmission protocols and data formats. This makes it challenging to handle energy-flow data in a unified manner. Thus, we have constructed a unified model for diagnosing energy usage abnormalities in IESs. Using this model, the data are divided into working days and non-working days, and benchmark values are calculated after the data have been weighted to enable unified analysis of several types of energy data. The energy-flow data may then be observed, managed, and compared in all aspects to monitor sudden changes in energy usage and energy wastage. The abnormal data identified and selected by the unified model are then subjected to big-data analysis using technical management tools, enabling the detection of user problems such as abnormalities pertaining to acquisition device, metering, and energy usage. This model facilitates accurate metering of energy data and improves energy efficiency. The study has significant implications in terms of fulfilling the energy saving. 展开更多
关键词 integrATED ENERGY services ENERGY efficiency analysis ENERGY USAGE diagnosis ENERGY USAGE ABNORMALITIES UNIFIED model
下载PDF
Two-phase nonlocal integral models with a bi-Helmholtz averaging kernel for nanorods 被引量:2
11
作者 Pei ZHANG Hai QING 《Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition)》 SCIE EI CSCD 2021年第10期1379-1396,共18页
In this work,the static tensile and free vibration of nanorods are studied via both the strain-driven(Strain D)and stress-driven(Stress D)two-phase nonlocal models with a bi-Helmholtz averaging kernel.Merely adjusting... In this work,the static tensile and free vibration of nanorods are studied via both the strain-driven(Strain D)and stress-driven(Stress D)two-phase nonlocal models with a bi-Helmholtz averaging kernel.Merely adjusting the limits of integration,the integral constitutive equation of the Fredholm type is converted to that of the Volterra type and then solved directly via the Laplace transform technique.The unknown constants can be uniquely determined through the standard boundary conditions and two constrained conditions accompanying the Laplace transform process.In the numerical examples,the bi-Helmholtz kernel-based Strain D(or Stress D)two-phase model shows consistently softening(or stiffening)effects on both the tension and the free vibration of nanorods with different boundary edges.The effects of the two nonlocal parameters of the bi-Helmholtz kernel-based two-phase nonlocal models are studied and compared with those of the Helmholtz kernel-based models. 展开更多
关键词 two-phase nonlocal integral model bi-Helmholtz kernel tensile analysis free vibration exact solution Laplace transform
下载PDF
BRIDGE-TOUGHENING ANALYSIS OF THE FIBER REINFORCED COMPOSITE CONTAINING INTERPHASE EFFECT
12
作者 Zhangjian, Wu Shouwen, Yu 《Acta Mechanica Solida Sinica》 SCIE EI 1994年第1期1-14,共14页
A detailed fracture mechanics analysis of bridge-toughening in a fiber reinforced composite is presented in this paper. The integral equation governing bridge-toughening as well as crack opening displacement (COD) for... A detailed fracture mechanics analysis of bridge-toughening in a fiber reinforced composite is presented in this paper. The integral equation governing bridge-toughening as well as crack opening displacement (COD) for the composite with interfacial layer is derived from the Castigliano's theorem and interface shear-lag model. A numerical result of the COD equation is obtained using the iteration solution of the second Fredholm integral equation. In order to investigate the effect of various parameters on the toughening, an approximate analytical solution of the equation is present and its error analysis is performed, which demonstrates the approximate solution to be appropriate. A parametric study of the influence of the crack length, interfacial shear modules, thickness of the interphase, fiber radius, fiber volume fraction and properties of materials on composite toughening is therefore carried out. The results are useful for experimental demonstration and toughening design including the fabrication process of the composite. 展开更多
关键词 Approximation theory Cracks Error analysis Failure analysis Fracture mechanics integral equations Iterative methods Mathematical models Phase interfaces Structural design TOUGHENING
下载PDF
An Integrated Modelling Approach Inmountainous Watershed of Heihe River Basin, Northwest China
13
作者 Youjia Liang Lijun Liu Zhongmin Xu 《Natural Resources》 2014年第3期90-98,共9页
An integrated modelling approach is developed to simulate ecological economics processes of mountainous watershed of Heihe river basin, northwest China. The objectives are 1) a hydrologic unit model HLM_HMU was develo... An integrated modelling approach is developed to simulate ecological economics processes of mountainous watershed of Heihe river basin, northwest China. The objectives are 1) a hydrologic unit model HLM_HMU was developed;2) the impacts of LUCC on the hydrological processes based on different scenarios were simulated respectively;and 3) the Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) curve of prohibition grazing is given. The hydrological results show that the observed and simulated data have a good fit, in which the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, balance error, and explained variance are 0.69, -0.13, and 0.62, respectively;the model can simulate the majority of peaks well;the source code of Spatial Modelling Environment (SME) needs to be deeply understood to improve the algorithms of interpolation and conflux;the PES result shows that prohibition grazing will occur completely when the price of PES reached to 17.42 yuan, and the increased amount of ecosystem services is 2.13 × 108 m3.The main purpose of this paper is to build a better understanding of developing a meaningful integrated model in the study area to solve its ecological and economic problems. 展开更多
关键词 integrATED modelling SME SCENARIO analysis PES
下载PDF
Time Series Analysis of Energy Intensity, Value Added Tax and Corporate Income Tax: A Case Study of the Non-Ferrous Metal Industry, Jiangxi Province, China 被引量:1
14
作者 Wenrong Pan Dejian Lai +1 位作者 Yu Song Jack Follis 《Journal of Data Analysis and Information Processing》 2019年第3期108-117,共10页
Unprecedented industrialization and urbanization have led to China’s poor energy efficiency. In response, the Chinese government has set goals to reduce energy consumption that may include implementing new tax polici... Unprecedented industrialization and urbanization have led to China’s poor energy efficiency. In response, the Chinese government has set goals to reduce energy consumption that may include implementing new tax policies. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between energy intensity, an indicator that measures the efficiency of energy consumption, and two sources of government revenue in China (i.e., value-added tax (VAT) and corporate income tax). As a case study, we developed a Granger co-integration model to analyze the dynamic relationship of energy intensity, VAT and corporate income tax in the non-ferrous metal industry, Jiangxi Province, China, between 1996 and 2010. Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests were used to validate the model. In our time series analyses, we found when controlling for corporate income tax, a one log unit increase of VAT resulted in a decrease of 1.17 log units of energy intensity. However, when controlling for VAT, a one log unit increase of corporate income tax resulted in an increase of 0.34 log units of energy intensity. Understanding the relationship between energy intensity and taxation in industries that consume high volumes of energy can greatly enhance China’s goal to reduce energy consumption. We believe our findings add to this on-going discussion. 展开更多
关键词 China TAXATION CO-integration modelS Energy CONSUMPTION GRANGER Cau-sality Test Time Series analysis
下载PDF
Consensus problems in multi-agent systems with double integrator model
15
作者 高利新 闫慧娟 金丹 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2010年第5期205-212,共8页
In this paper, we consider multi-agent consensus problems in a decentralised fashion. The interconnection topology graph among the agents is switching and undirected. The agent dynamics is expressed in the form of a d... In this paper, we consider multi-agent consensus problems in a decentralised fashion. The interconnection topology graph among the agents is switching and undirected. The agent dynamics is expressed in the form of a double integrator model. Two different cases are considered in this study. One is the leader-following case and the other is leaderless case. Based on graph theory and common Lyapunov function method, some sufficient conditions are obtained for the consensus stability of the considered systems with the neighbour-based feedback laws in both leader-following case and leaderless case respectively. Finally, two numerical examples are given to illustrate the obtained results. 展开更多
关键词 multi-gent systems stability analysis CONSENSUS double-integrator model
下载PDF
A Multi-slack Bus Model for Bi-directional Energy Flow Analysis of Integrated Power-gas Systems
16
作者 Yujia Huang Qiuye Sun +1 位作者 Ning Zhang Rui Wang 《CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems》 SCIE EI CSCD 2024年第5期2186-2196,共11页
The bi-directional energy conversion components such as gas-fired generators(GfG)and power-to-gas(P2G)have enhanced the interactions between power and gas systems.This paper focuses on the steady-state energy flow ana... The bi-directional energy conversion components such as gas-fired generators(GfG)and power-to-gas(P2G)have enhanced the interactions between power and gas systems.This paper focuses on the steady-state energy flow analysis of an integrated power-gas system(IPGS)with bi-directional energy conversion components.Considering the shortcomings of adjusting active power balance only by single GfG unit and the capacity limitation of slack bus,a multi-slack bus(MSB)model is proposed for integrated power-gas systems,by combining the advantages of bi-directional energy conversion components in adjusting active power.The components are modeled as participating units through iterative participation factors solved by the power sensitivity method,which embeds the effect of system conditions.On this basis,the impact of the mixed problem of multi-type gas supply sources(such as hydrogen and methane generated by P2G)on integrated system is considered,and the gas characteristics-specific gravity(SG)and gross calorific value(GCV)are modeled as state variables to obtain a more accurate operational results.Finally,a bi-directional energy flow solver with iterative SG,GCV and participation factors is developed to assess the steady-state equilibrium point of IPGS based on Newton-Raphson method.The applicability of proposed methodology is demonstrated by analyzing an integrated IEEE 14-bus power system and a Belgian 20-node gas system. 展开更多
关键词 Bi-directional energy flow analysis integrated power-gas system(IPGS) multi-slack bus model multi-type gas supply sources
原文传递
Discrimination for minimal hepatic encephalopathy based on Bayesian modeling of default mode network
17
作者 焦蕴 王训恒 +2 位作者 汤天宇 朱西琪 滕皋军 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2015年第4期582-587,共6页
In order to classify the minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) patients from healthy controls, the independent component analysis (ICA) is used to generate the default mode network (DMN) from resting-state functi... In order to classify the minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) patients from healthy controls, the independent component analysis (ICA) is used to generate the default mode network (DMN) from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Then a Bayesian voxel- wised method, graphical-model-based multivariate analysis (GAMMA), is used to explore the associations between abnormal functional integration within DMN and clinical variable. Without any prior knowledge, five machine learning methods, namely, support vector machines (SVMs), classification and regression trees ( CART ), logistic regression, the Bayesian network, and C4.5, are applied to the classification. The functional integration patterns were alternative within DMN, which have the power to predict MHE with an accuracy of 98%. The GAMMA method generating functional integration patterns within DMN can become a simple, objective, and common imaging biomarker for detecting MIIE and can serve as a supplement to the existing diagnostic methods. 展开更多
关键词 graphical-model-based multivariate analysis Bayesian modeling machine learning functional integration minimal hepatic encephalopathy resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI)
下载PDF
2024年山东省高考生物学试题第15和25题的深度解析
18
作者 陈从兵 《生物学教学》 北大核心 2025年第1期94-96,共3页
通过对2024年山东省高考生物学试题分析发现,第15题为色氨酸依赖型突变体培养相关的微生物试题,而第25题为基因工程结合遗传相关的试题,这两道试题很好考查了科学思维和科学探究的能力,仔细剖析有利于促进学生纵向和横向的深度思考。
关键词 概念图 模型图 图文结合 试题分析 高考生物学
下载PDF
基于ARIMA模型的2010-2020年云南省HIV/AIDS发病率预测分析
19
作者 陈雪梅 《现代医药卫生》 2025年第1期11-17,共7页
目的构建自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,以预测该地区的人类免疫缺陷病毒/获得性免疫缺陷综合征(HIV/AIDS)发病率,并对模型的预测效能进行评估。方法对云南省2010年1月至2020年12月HIV/AIDS的月发病率数据建立ARIMA模型。通过比较分析,选择... 目的构建自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,以预测该地区的人类免疫缺陷病毒/获得性免疫缺陷综合征(HIV/AIDS)发病率,并对模型的预测效能进行评估。方法对云南省2010年1月至2020年12月HIV/AIDS的月发病率数据建立ARIMA模型。通过比较分析,选择AIDS和HIV发病率的最优拟合模型,并对2020年全年的月发病率进行了预测,分析模型预测的准确度。结果在2010-2020年,云南省的AIDS发病率保持稳定,而HIV发病率则呈逐年下降趋势。经平稳化处理、单位根检验(ADF)和模型筛选,确定ARIMA(2,0,2)(1,0,2)[12]为AIDS发病率的最优拟合模型,ARIMA(2,1,1)(2,1,0)[12]为HIV发病率的最优拟合模型,模型拟合优度检验显示R 2分别为0.668和0.737,Ljung-Box统计量分别为12.97(P>0.05)和14.89(P>0.05),贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)值分别为-3.07和-3.08,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别为16.41和11.29。模型残差的自相关函数图(ACF)和偏自相关函数图(PACF)均在95%CI范围内,模型曲线的预测值与实际值的趋势一致,预测值与实际值接近。结论ARIMA模型对AIDS和HIV发病率的预测效果良好,该模型可作为短期预测和分析的有效工具,为相关部门及时采取有效的HIV/AIDS防控措施提供科学的决策支持。 展开更多
关键词 人类免疫缺陷病毒/获得性免疫缺陷综合征 自回归移动平均模型 时间序列分析 疾病预测 发病率
下载PDF
Analysis for integrated energy system:Benchmarking methods and implementation
20
作者 Suhan Zhang Wei Gu +4 位作者 X.-P.Zhang CYChung Ruizhi Yu Shuai Lu Rodrigo Palma‐Behnke 《Energy Internet》 2024年第1期63-80,共18页
The selection of suitable models and solutions is a fundamental requirement for con-ducting energy flow analysis in integrated energy systems(IES).However,this task is challenging due to the vast number of existing mo... The selection of suitable models and solutions is a fundamental requirement for con-ducting energy flow analysis in integrated energy systems(IES).However,this task is challenging due to the vast number of existing models and solutions,making it difficult to comprehensively compare scholars'studies with current work.In this paper,we aim to address this issue by presenting a comprehensive overview of mainstream IES models and clarifying their relationships,thereby providing guidance for scholars in selecting appro-priate models.Additionally,we introduce several widely used solvers for solving algebraic and differential equations,along with their detailed implementations in the energy flow analysis of IES.Furthermore,we conduct extensive testing and demonstration of these models and methods in various cases to establish benchmarking datasets.To facilitate reproducibility,verification and comparisons,we provide open‐source access to these datasets,including system data,analysis settings and implementations of the various solvers in the mainstream models.Scholars can utilise the provided datasets to reproduce the results,verify the findings and perform comparative analyses.Moreover,they have the flexibility to customise these settings according to their specific requirements. 展开更多
关键词 benchmarking method energy flow analysis integrated energy system mainstream model open‐source data
原文传递
上一页 1 2 52 下一页 到第
使用帮助 返回顶部