Relationship between gravity change and Yangbi M_(S)6.4 earthquake

Based on the relative and absolute gravity measurements in the southern South-North Seismic Belt since 2015,we analyzed the dynamic change of the regional gravity field and its relationship with the Yangbi M_(S)6.4 earthquake that occurred on May 21,2021.The results show that:(1)The regional gravity field changes are closely related to the Weixi-Qiaohou fault,which reflects the surface gravity field changes caused by the fault activity from 2015 to 2021;(2)The gravity field change related to the preparation of Yangbi earthquake has experienced the evolution process of"steady state-regional gravity anomaly-local gravity anomaly-four-quadrant distribution-large area positive anomaly-earthquake occurring in the reverse change process";(3)The cumulative and differential change images of the gravity field show that there were significant gravity changes in the two years preceding the Yangbi earthquake,and the earthquake occurred in the high-gradient belt of gravity variation,the center of the four-quadrant,and close to the zero contour turn;(4)The dynamic evolution image of the gravity field can well reflect the precursory phenomena during the preparation for the Yangbi MS6.4 earthquake.Based on the anomaly change of mobile gravity,a certain degree of medium-term prediction was made before the Yangbi M_(S)6.4 earthquake,especially the determination of strong earthquake location.

The Deep Geophysical Structure of the Middle Section of the Longmen Mountains Tectonic Belt and its Relation to the Wenchuan Earthquake

Investigation of the deep geophysical structure of the Longmen Mountains tectonic belt and its relation to the Wenchuan Earthquake is important for the study of earthquakes.By using magnetotelluric sounding profiles of the Luqu-Zhongjiang and Anxian-Suining; seismic sounding profiles of the Sichuan Maowen-Chongqing Gongtan,the Qinghai Huashi Gorge-Sichuan Jianyang,and the Batang-Zizhong; and magnetogravimetric data of the Longmen Mountains region,the deep geophysical structure of the Songpan-Ganzi block,the western Sichuan foreland basin,and the Longmen Mountains tectonic belt and their relation was discussed.The eastward extrusion of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau thrusts the Songpan-Ganzi block upon the Yangtze block,which obstructs the eastward movement of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The Maoxian-Wenchuan,Beichuan-Yingxiu,and Anxian-Guanxian faults of the Longmen Mountains fault belt dip to northwest with different dip angles and gradually converge in the deeper parts.Geophysical structure suggests that an intracrustal low-velocity,low-resistivity,and high-conductivity layer is common between the middle and upper crust west of the Longmen Mountains tectonic belt but not in the upper Yangtze block.The Sichuan Basin has a thick low-resistance sedimentary layer on a stable high-resistance basement; moreover,there are secondary paleohighs and depression structures at the lower part of the western Sichuan foreland basin with characteristic of high magnetic anomalies,whereas the Songpan-Ganzi block has a high resisitivity cover of upper crust and continues to a low-resistance layer.Considering the Longmen Mountains tectonic belt as the boundary,there are Bouguer gravity anomalies of ＂one belt between two zones.＂ Thus,we infer that there is a corresponding relation between the inferred crystalline basement of the Songpan block and the underlying basin basement of the Longmen Mountains fault belt.Furthermore,there may be an extensive ancient Yangtze block,which is west of the Ruoergai block.In addition,the crust-mantle ductile shear zone under the Longmen Mountains tectonic belt is the main fault,whereas the Beichuan-Yingxiu and Anxian-Guanxian faults at the surface are earthquake faults.The Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake might be attributed to the collision of the Yangtze block and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The eastward obduction of the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and eastward subduction of its deeper part under the influence of the collision of the Indian,Pacific,and Philippine Plates with the Eurasia Plate might have caused the Longmen Mountains tectonic belt to cut the Moho and extend to the middle and upper crust; thus,creating high stress concentration and rapid energy release zone.

Comparative Study of Global Seismicity on the Hot Engine Belt and the Cooling Seismic Belt—Improvement on Research Ideas of Earthquake Prediction

The study in this paper analyzes and compares the distribution on the global engine active seismic zone and cooling seismic belt basing on the ANSS earthquake catalog from Northern California Earthquake Data Center. An idea of the seismogenesis and earthquake prediction research is achieved by showing the stratigraphic structure in the hot engine belt. The results show that the main engine and its seismic cones are the global seismic activity area, as well as the subject of global geological disaster. Based on the conjecture of other stratum structure, the energy of crustal strong earthquake and volcano activities probably originates from the deep upper mantle. It is suggested that the research on earthquake and volcano prediction should focus on the monitor and analysis on the sub-crustal earthquake activities.

Dynamic damage evolution of bank slopes with serrated structural planes considering the deteriorated rock mass and frequent reservoirinduced earthquakes

To investigate the dynamic damage evolution characteristics of bank slopes with serrated structural planes,the shaking table model test and the numerical simulation were utilized.The main findings indicate that under continuous seismic loads,the deformation of the bank slope increased,particularly around the hydro-fluctuation belt,accompanying by the pore water pressure rising.The soil pressure increased and then decreased showed dynamic variation characteristics.As the undulation angle of the serrated structural planes increased(30°, 45°, and 60°),the failure modes were climbing,climbinggnawing,and gnawing respectively.The first-order natural frequency was used to calculate the damage degree(Dd)of the bank slope.During microseisms and small earthquakes,it was discovered that the evolution of Dd followed the“S”shape,which was fitted by a logic function.Additionally,the quadratic function was used to fit the Dd during moderately strong earthquakes.Through the numerical simulation,the variation characteristics of safety factors(Sf)for slopes with serrated structural planes and slopes with straight structural planes were compared.Under continuous seismic loads,the Sf of slopes with straight structural planes reduce stalely,whereas the Sf for slopes with serrated structural planes was greater than the former and the reduction rate was increasing.

Sentinel-1 In SAR observations and time-series analysis of co-and postseismic deformation mechanisms of the 2021 Mw 5.8 Bandar Ganaveh Earthquake,Southern Iran

In the past two decades,because of the significant increase in the availability of differential interferometry from synthetic aperture radar and GPS data,spaceborne geodesy has been widely employed to determine the co-seismic displacement field of earthquakes.On April 18,2021,a moderate earthquake(Mw 5.8)occurred east of Bandar Ganaveh,southern Iran,followed by intensive seismic activity and aftershocks of various magnitudes.We use two-pass D-InSAR and Small Baseline Inversion techniques via the LiCSBAS suite to study the coseismic displacement and monitor the four-month post-seismic deformation of the Bandar Ganaveh earthquake,as well as constrain the fault geometry of the co-seismic faulting mechanism during the seismic sequence.Analyses show that the co-and postseismic deformation are distributed in relatively shallow depths along with an NW-SE striking and NE dipping complex reverse/thrust fault branches of the Zagros Mountain Front Fault,complying with the main trend of the Zagros structures.The average cumulative displacements were obtained from-137.5 to+113.3 mm/yr in the SW and NE blocks of the Mountain Front Fault,respectively.The received maximum uplift amount is approximately consistent with the overall orogen-normal shortening component of the Arabian-Eurasian convergence in the Zagros region.No surface ruptures were associated with the seismic source;therefore,we propose a shallow blind thrust/reverse fault(depth~10 km)connected to the deeper basal decollement fault within a complex tectonic zone,emphasizing the thin-skinned tectonics.

The Identification of Large-Giant Bedrock Landslides Triggered by Earthquake in the Longmenshan Tectonic Belt

The identification of large-giant bedrock landslides triggered by earthquake aims to the landslide prevention and control. Previous studies have described the basic characteristics, distribution, and the formation mechanism of seismic landslides （Bijan Khazai et al., 2003; Chong Xu et al., 2013; Lewis a. Owen et al., 2008; Randall W. Jibson et al., 2006）. However, few researches have focused on the early identification indicators of large-giant bedrock landslides triggered by earthquake （David k. Keefer., 1984; Janusz Wasowski et al., 2011; Alexander L.Strom., 2009; Patrick Meunier et al., 2008; Shahriar Vahdani et al., 2002; Bijan Khazai et al., 2003）. This paper presents the identification indicators of large-giant bedrock landslides triggered by earthquake in the Longmenshan tectonic belt on the basic of their characteristics, distribution and the relationship between seismic landslides and the peak ground motion acceleration.

Study on intermediate focus earthquake belt in Hindukush-Pamirs

According to the feature of Hindukush-Pamirs intermediate focus earthquake belt with a S-shaped pattern of dip direction reversion by using the data of earthquake catalogues obtained by seismic networks in Xinjiang and Mid-Asia area of the former Soviet Union, by means of focal mechanism solution and tectonic stress analysis, it is considered that the intermediate focus earthquake belt is possibly formed by the compression rupture which is caused by the collision between Indian and European Plates in the lithosphere of the upper mantle. Under the action of torsion moment, the continuous torsional break of reverse part of the earthquake belt might be the reason why the intermediate focus strong earthquakes occur repeatedly in the same place. In this paper, the boundary line between the intermediate focus earthquake belt and the shallow focus earthquake region of the western part of south Tianshan is also defined from the angle of seismicity division.

Characteristics of satellite-gravity variations in the North-South Seismic Belt before the 2013 Lushan earthquake

To study the characteristics of gravity variations in and near the North-South Seismic Belt before the 2013 Lushan earthquake,we used the geopotential-field models based on monthly data of the RI.~5 GRACE satellite to calculate the gravity changes. Here we present the patterns of annually cumulative variation, differentiatial variation and secular trend, as well as the continuous time-series at 4 characteristic sites during 2004 -2012. The result shows that the anomalous positive-to-negative transition zone, in which the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake was located, did not show any new gravity change before the Lushan earthquake, though located in the same zone.

Earthquake triggering and delaying caused by fault interaction on Xianshuihe fault belt, southwestern China

The coseismic Coulomb stress change caused by fault interaction and its influences on the triggering and delaying of earthquake are briefly discussed. The Xianshuihe fault belt consists of Luhuo, Daofu, Kangding, Qianning and Ganzi fault. Luohuo (MS=7.6, 1973)-Kangding (MS=6.2, 1975)-Daofu (MS=6.9, 1981)-Ganzi (MS=6.0, 1982) earthquake is a seismic sequence continuous on the time axis with magnitude greater than 6.0. They occurred on the Luhuo, Kangding, Daofu and Ganzi fault, respectively. The coseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by each earthquake on its surrounding major faults and microcracks are calculated, and their effects on the triggering and delaying of the next earthquake and aftershocks are analyzed. It is shown that each earthquake of the sequence occurred on the fault segment with coseismic Coulomb stress increases caused by its predecessors, and most after-shocks are distributed along the microcracks with relatively larger coseismic Coulomb stress increases resulted from the main shock. With the fault interaction considered, the seismic potential of each segment along Xianshuihe fault belt is reassessed, and contrasted with those predicted results ignoring coseismic Coulomb stress change, the significance of fault interaction and its effect on triggering and delaying of earthquake are emphasized. It is con-cluded that fault interaction plays a very important role on seismic potential of Xianshuihe fault belt, and the maximal change of future earthquake probability on fault segment is up to 30.5%.

The NE Directed Seismicity Belt in Tibet after the M_S8.1 Nepal Earthquake and Its Predictive Significance

After the 2015 M_S8. 1 Nepal earthquake,a strong and moderate seismicity belt has formed in Tibet gradually spreading along the northeast direction. In this paper,we attempt to summarize the features and investigate the primary mechanism of this behavior of seismic activity,using a 2-D finite element numerical model with tectonic dynamic settings and GPS horizontal displacements as the constraints. In addition,compared with the NEtrending seismicity belt triggered by the 1996 Xiatongmoin earthquake,we discuss the future earthquake hazard in and around Tibet. Our results show that: the NE-directed seismicity belt is the response of enhanced loading on the anisotropic Qinghai-Tibetan plateau from the Indian plate and earthquake thrusting. Also,this possibly implies that a forthcoming strong earthquake may fill in the gaps in the NE-directed seismicity belt or enhance the seismic hazard in the eastern( the north-south seismic zone) and western( Tianshan tectonic region) parts near the NE-directed belt.

A fast automatic identification method for seismic belts based on distance correlation and its earthquake case

Earthquake prediction practice and a large number of earthquake cases show that anomalous images of small earthquake belts may appear near the epicenter before strong earthquakes.Through the research of earthquake cases,researchers have a relatively consistent method to determine the clarity of an identified seismic belt,but there is still a lack of method on seismic belt identification from the distribution of scattered points.Due to the complexity of exhaustive algorithm,the rapid automatic identification technique of seismic belts has been progressing slowly.Visual recognition is still the basic method of seismic belt identification.Based on the algorithm of distance correlation,this paper presents a fast automatic identification method of seismic belts.The effectiveness of this method was proved by 100 random earthquakes and an example of seismic belts of magnitude 4.0 before the 2005 Jiujiang M5.7 earthquake.The results show that:①the automatic identification of seismic belts should first identify the"relational earthquake",then identify the"suspected seismic belt",and finally use the criterion of seismic belt clarity to determine;②random earthquakes and real earthquakes identification results show that the distance correlation method can realize the fast automatic identification of seismic belts by computer.

Relationship between crustal magnetic anomalies and strong earthquake activity in the south segment of the China North-South Seismic Belt

The south segment of the China North-South Seismic Belt is located in the southeast margin of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau.This region is characterized by the frequent seismic activity in Chinese mainland.In this paper,the geomagnetic field model NGDC-720 and the data of terrestrial heat flow are used to investigate the distribution of crustal magnetic anomalies,the depth of Curie surface,and the characteristics of the crustal thermal structure in the south segment of the North-South Seismic Belt.The distribution characteristics of the vertical component AZ and the magnetic declination AD in the area with earthquakes over a magnitude of 6 and their aftershocks since 1970 are focused on.The results show that the earthquakes are mainly observed in the area of negative magnetic anomaly or the strong and weak transition zone.It especially shows in the AD.The Curie surface in the study area varies significantly,ranging from 20.8 to 31 km.The uplift area of the Curie surface is consistent with the high-value area of terrestrial heat flow.The high geothermal area corresponds to the strong earthquake activity area.The focal depth of most strong earthquakes is shallower than the depth of the Curie surface.The strong earthquakes mainly occur in the deep-shallow transition zones of the Curie surface.The results can be used as a reference for strong earthquake prediction in this area.

The Migration Characteristics of Strong Earthquakes on the North-South Seismic Belt and Its Relation with the South Asia Seismic Belt

Migration of strong earthquakes (M≥7.0) along the North-South Seismic Belt of China since 1500 AD shows three patterns: Approximately equal time and distance interval migration from N to S, varied patterns of migration from S to N and grouped strong earthquake activity in a certain period over the entire seismic belt. Analysis of strong earthquakes in the past hundred years shows that the seismicity on the North-South Seismic Belt is also associated with strong earthquake activities on the South Asia Seismic Belt which extends from Myanmar to Sumatra, Indonesia. Strong earthquakes on the former belt often lag several months or years behind the quakes occurring on the later belt. So, after the occurrence of the December 26, 2004 M_S8.7 great earthquake off the western coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, the possibility of occurrence of strong earthquakes on the North-South Seismic Belt of China cannot be ignored. The above-mentioned migration characteristics of strong earthquakes are related to the northeastward collision and subduction of the India Plate as well as the interaction between the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and the stable and hard Ordos and Alashan Massifs at its northeastern margin.

Quantitative Seismicity Analysis for the Risk of Historical Large Earthquake Rupture Zone:Application to the Mid-North Segment of the North-South Seismic Belt

Although seismic gap theory plays an important role in the med-and long-term earthquake prediction,the potential risk of the non-seismic gap in historical earthquake rupture areas will need to be simultaneously taken into account in the study of med-and long-term earthquake prediction,due to the temporally clustering or non-linear behavior of large earthquake recurrence.In order to explore technical methods which can be based on observational data,and identify historical earthquake rupture zones( including the seismic gap in historical and prehistoric earthquake rupture zones),we select eight historical large earthquake rupture zones with different elapsed times on the mid-north segment of the North-South Seismic Belt to make quantitative analysis on the characteristics of modern seismicity of these zones and preliminarily explore the seismicity method for determining the urgency degree of potential earthquake hazards.The results mainly show that the pvalue,which reflects the attenuation of earthquake sequence,and the a-value,which reflects the seismicity rate,are strongly related to the elapsed time of the latest earthquake in the rupture zone.However,the corresponding relationships in some rupture areas are not clear perhaps due to the complex fault structure and faulting behavior.The b-value,which represents the state of tectonic stress accumulation,does not easily reflect the elapsed time information of different evolution stages.The b-value temporal scanning shows a steady evolution over time in most of the rupture zones,but in the rupture zone of the Wudu M8.0 earthquake of 1879,the b-value shows significant fluctuations with a decreasing trend for 20 years.By comparative analysis,we conclude that the rupture zones of the 1933 M7.5 Maoxian earthquake and the 1976 M7.2 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake are still in the decaying period of earthquake sequences,and thus do not have the background for recurrence of M7.0 earthquakes.The low b-value Maqu segment,which is located at the north margin of the rupture zone of the 842A.D.M7.0 Diebu earthquake,is more dangerous than the Diebu segment.The continuous decline of the b-value in the 1879 M8.0 Wudu earthquake rupture zone may also indicate a new round of seismogenic process.

Research on the Distribution Features of the Benioff Strain Ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt after the Two Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquakes

In view of the correlation between tectonic activity and seismicity,the strong earthquake risk in the North-South Seismic Belt aroused wide concern after the 2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake. Using the seismic catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center,the Benioff strain ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt is calculated in 30 days before and after the March 21,2008 and February 12,2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquakes. Results show that in a year after the 2008 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,M > 5. 0 earthquakes all occurred near the high strain ratio area or the junction between the low and high strain ratio areas,the activity of strong earthquakes obviously coincides with the high strain ratio area,which indicates that these areas have a higher stress level. The Yutian earthquakes promoted the release of small earthquakes in the high stress areas. This research is of certain indicating significance to the study of subsequent strong earthquakes of this region.

Preliminary Results of In-situ Stress Measurements along the Longmenshan Fault Zone after the Wenchuan M_s 8.0 Earthquake

Four months after the Wenchuan Ms 8 earthquake in western Sichuan, China, in situ stress measurements were carried out along the Longmenshan fault zone with the purpose of obtaining stress parameters for earthquake hazard assessment. In-situ stresses were measured in three new boreholes by using overcoring with the piezomagnetic stress gauges for shallow depths and hydraulic fracturing for lower depths. The maximum horizontal stress in shallow depths （-20 m） is about 4.3 MPa, oriented N19°E, in the epicenter area at Yingxiu Town, about 9.7 MPa, oriented N51°W, at Baoxing County in the southwestern Longmenshan range, and about 2.6 MPa, oriented N39°E, near Kangding in the southernmost zone of the Longmenshan range. Hydraulic fracturing at borehole depths from 100 to 400 m shows a tendency towards increasing stress with depth. A comparison with the results measured before the Wenchuan earthquake along the Longmenshan zone and in the Tibetan Plateau demonstrates that the stress level remains relatively high in the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan range, and is still moderate in the epicenter zone. These results provide a key appraisal for future assessment of earthquake hazards of the Longmenshan fault zone and the aftershock occurrences of the Wenchuan earthquake.

Three-dimensional crustal movement and the activities of earthquakes,volcanoes and faults in Hainan Island,China

Hainan Island is a seismic active region, where Qiongshan M7.5 earthquake occurred in 1605 and several seismic belts appeared in recent years, especially the NS trending seismic belt （NSB） located in the northeast part of the island. Here is also a magmatic active region. The lava from about 100 volcanoes covered more than 4000 km^2. The latest eruptions occurred on Ma＇anling-Lei Huling volcanoes within 10,000 years. The neotectonic movement has been determined by geological method in the island and its adjacent areas. In the paper, the present-day 3D crustal movement is obtained by using Global Positioning System （GPS） data observed from 2009 to 2014 and leveling observations measured in 1970s and 1990s respectively. The results show the horizontal movement is mainly along SEE direction relative to the Eurasian Plate. The velocities are between 4.01 and 6.70 mm/a. The tension rate near the NSB is less than I mm/a. The vertical movement shows the island uplifts as a whole with respect to the reference benchmark Xiuyinggang. The average uplifting rate is 2.4 mm/a. The rates are 2-3 mm/a in the northwest and 3-5mm/a in the northwest. It shows the deformation pattern of the southwest island is upward relative to the northeast, which is different from the result inferred from the coastal change and GPS. Haikou and its adjacent region present a subsidence in a long time. The southern part of the middle segment of the Wangwu-Wenjiao fault uplifts relative to the northern. Meanwhile, the western part uplifts relative to the eastern NSB. The vertical crustal motion and the two normal faults nearly correspond to the terrain. The NSB is located along the Puqiangang-Dazhibo fault, which is assessed as a segmented fault with a dip of 80°-90° and party exposed. The 3D deformations and other studies reveal the present activities of earthquakes, volcanoes and the faults. The small earthquakes will still occur in the NS belt and the volcanoes are not active now.

Co-seismic displacements of 2011 Japan Mw9.0 earthquake recorded by far-field GPS stations

Co-seismic displacements of the 2011 Mw9.0 Japan earthquake recorded by GPS stations in China and surrounding areas showed a movement toward the epicenter. The horizontal displacements were up to 1 - 3 cm in northeastern China, 3 -8 mm in the North China, and 2 cm in the Korean peninsula. The vertical movements in China were small uplifts.

Characteristics of seismic activity before Chile M_W8.8 earthquake in 2010

The tempo-spatial variation of seismic activity before great Chile Mw8.8 earthquake on February 27, 2010 is studied. Some results are as follows： ①Two types of seismic gaps appeared before the Chile MwS.8 shock. One is background gap of Mw≥8.0 earthquakes with 360 km length since 1900, the other is seismogenic gap formed by M≥5.5 earth- quakes with 780km length five years before the Chile earthquake; ②There was only one Mw7.1 earthquake in the middle and southern part of Chile from 1986 to 2010. The obvious quiescence of Mw≥7.0 earthquake is the long-term background anomaly for the Chile earthquake; ③ The quiescence of M≥6.5 earthquakes appeared in South American block and its vicinity during the period from 2007 to 2009, and the quietude state has been disappeared three months before the Chile Mw8.8 earthquake; ④ The deep and intermediate-depth earthquake activity has been noticeablely strengthened in the subduction zone of South American block since 1993; ⑤The great Chile earthquake shows that global seismicity is still in the active period of Mw≥8.5 earthquakes since 2004. Based on the characteristics of the former two active periods, several great earthquakes with Mw≥8.5 would take place in a few years. In addition, the circum-Pacific seismic belt would be the main region for Mw≥8.0 earthquakes.

Fault-zone trapped waves at Muyu in Wenchuan earthquake region

Trapped waves in the Qingchuan fault zone were observed at Muyu near the northeastern end of the fractured zone of the Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake. The results indicate a fault-zone width of about 200 m and a great difference in physical property of the crust on different sides of the fault. The inferred location of crustal changes is consistent with land-form boundary on the surface