As "the third pole", the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is sensitive to climate forcing and has experienced rapid warming in recent decades. This study analyzes annual and seasonal near-surface air temperature changes ...As "the third pole", the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is sensitive to climate forcing and has experienced rapid warming in recent decades. This study analyzes annual and seasonal near-surface air temperature changes on the TP in response to transient and stabilized 2.0℃/1.5℃ global warming targets based on simulations of the Community Earth System Model(CESM). Elevation-dependent warming(EDW) with faster warming at higher elevations is predicted. A surface energy budget analysis is adopted to uncover the mechanisms responsible for the temperature changes. Our results indicate a clear amplified warming on the TP with positive EDW in 2.0℃/1.5℃ warmer futures, especially in the cold season. Mean TP warming relative to the reference period(1961–90) is dominated by an enhanced downward longwave radiation flux, while the variations in surface albedo shape the detailed pattern of EDW. For the same global warming level, the temperature changes under transient scenarios are ~0.2℃ higher than those under stabilized scenarios, and the characteristics of EDW are broadly similar for both scenarios. These differences can be primarily attributed to the combined effects of differential downward longwave radiation, cloud radiative forcing, and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These findings contribute to a more detailed understanding of regional climate on the TP in response to the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement and highlight the differences between transient and stabilized warming scenarios.展开更多
The Tibetan Plateau vortices(TPVs)are the major rain-producing systems over the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The activities of TPVs are closely related to TP's water source,which supplies fresh water to millions of people ...The Tibetan Plateau vortices(TPVs)are the major rain-producing systems over the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The activities of TPVs are closely related to TP's water source,which supplies fresh water to millions of people in Asia.Projection of the TPVs can increase understanding about the future of water supply in Asia under global warming.In this study,the possible activities of TPVs under 1.5℃and 2℃warming scenarios above the pre-industrial level are evaluated through the NCAR CESM(Community Earth System Model)Low-warming(CESM-LW)Experiments.The results show that the CESM-LW well reproduces the spatio-temporal characteristics of TPVs in the historical run from 1985 to 2000.The CESM-LW suggests TPVs in warm season(May-September)increase by 15%due to the additional 0.5℃warming by the end of this century(2071—2100).It implies the greater importance of TPVs to the precipitation over the TP in the future.The changes of TPVs are closely related to the large-scale circulations adjustments.The additional 0.5℃warming strengthens the temperature difference between the TP and its surrounding areas,which results in an enhanced convergence near the TP's surface and divergence in the upper troposphere by about-0.1×10^(-6)and 0.22×10^(6)s^(-1),respectively.The assessment of future TPVs provides a synoptic dynamic perspective on the climate change of precipitation and water resources.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41971072,41771069).
文摘As "the third pole", the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is sensitive to climate forcing and has experienced rapid warming in recent decades. This study analyzes annual and seasonal near-surface air temperature changes on the TP in response to transient and stabilized 2.0℃/1.5℃ global warming targets based on simulations of the Community Earth System Model(CESM). Elevation-dependent warming(EDW) with faster warming at higher elevations is predicted. A surface energy budget analysis is adopted to uncover the mechanisms responsible for the temperature changes. Our results indicate a clear amplified warming on the TP with positive EDW in 2.0℃/1.5℃ warmer futures, especially in the cold season. Mean TP warming relative to the reference period(1961–90) is dominated by an enhanced downward longwave radiation flux, while the variations in surface albedo shape the detailed pattern of EDW. For the same global warming level, the temperature changes under transient scenarios are ~0.2℃ higher than those under stabilized scenarios, and the characteristics of EDW are broadly similar for both scenarios. These differences can be primarily attributed to the combined effects of differential downward longwave radiation, cloud radiative forcing, and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These findings contribute to a more detailed understanding of regional climate on the TP in response to the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement and highlight the differences between transient and stabilized warming scenarios.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP,2019QZKK0103)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41765011 and 42030611).
文摘The Tibetan Plateau vortices(TPVs)are the major rain-producing systems over the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The activities of TPVs are closely related to TP's water source,which supplies fresh water to millions of people in Asia.Projection of the TPVs can increase understanding about the future of water supply in Asia under global warming.In this study,the possible activities of TPVs under 1.5℃and 2℃warming scenarios above the pre-industrial level are evaluated through the NCAR CESM(Community Earth System Model)Low-warming(CESM-LW)Experiments.The results show that the CESM-LW well reproduces the spatio-temporal characteristics of TPVs in the historical run from 1985 to 2000.The CESM-LW suggests TPVs in warm season(May-September)increase by 15%due to the additional 0.5℃warming by the end of this century(2071—2100).It implies the greater importance of TPVs to the precipitation over the TP in the future.The changes of TPVs are closely related to the large-scale circulations adjustments.The additional 0.5℃warming strengthens the temperature difference between the TP and its surrounding areas,which results in an enhanced convergence near the TP's surface and divergence in the upper troposphere by about-0.1×10^(-6)and 0.22×10^(6)s^(-1),respectively.The assessment of future TPVs provides a synoptic dynamic perspective on the climate change of precipitation and water resources.
