Climate change influences both ecosystems and ecosystem services.The impacts of climate change on ecosystems and ecosystem services have been separately documented.However,it is less well known how ecosystem changes d...Climate change influences both ecosystems and ecosystem services.The impacts of climate change on ecosystems and ecosystem services have been separately documented.However,it is less well known how ecosystem changes driven by climate change will influence ecosystem services,especially in climate-sensitive regions.Here,we analyzed future climate trends between 2040 and 2100 under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP) scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6).We quantified their impacts on ecosystems patterns and on the ecosystem service of sandstorm prevention on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),one of the most climate-sensitive regions in the world,using Random Forest model(RF) and Revised Wind Erosion Equation(RWEQ).Strong warming(0.04℃/yr) and wetting(0.65 mm/yr) trends were projected from 2015 to 2100.Under these trends,there will be increased interspersion in the pattern of grassland and sparse vegetation with meadow and swamp vegetation,although their overall area will remain similar,while the areas of shrub and needleleaved forest classes will increase and move toward higher altitudes.Driven by the changes in ecosystem patterns caused by climate change indirectly,grassland will play an irreplaceable role in providing sandstorm prevention services,and sandstorm prevention services will increase gradually from 2040 to 2100(1.059-1.070 billion tons) on the QTP.However,some areas show a risk of deterioration in the future and these should be the focus of ecological rehabilitation.Our research helps to understand the cascading relationship among climate change,ecosystem patterns and ecosystem services,which provides important spatio-temporal information for future ecosystem service management.展开更多
As one part of the National Highway Network Planning in China, the Qinghai-Tibet Expressway （QTE） from Golmud to Lhasa will be built in the interior of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau （QTP） across about 630 km of permaf...As one part of the National Highway Network Planning in China, the Qinghai-Tibet Expressway （QTE） from Golmud to Lhasa will be built in the interior of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau （QTP） across about 630 km of permafrost lands. Due to the problematic interactions between the engineering foundations and permafrost, the frozen-soil roadbed of the QTE will be subjected to the more intense thermal disturbances due to the wider black surface. The design and construction for long-term thermal and mechanical stability will face more severe challenges than those in ordinary highways and railways in the same region. In order to provide scientific support for cold regions engineering practices, the QTE Experimental Demonstration Project （EDP） was constructed in situ in the vicinity of the Beilu＇he Permafrost Station in the interior of the QTP. In this paper, the anticipated problems of the proposed QTE project are enumerated, and the structures of the test sections for QTE EDP are described. Through numerical simulations, it was found that the heat transfer processes occurring in each specific road structure are significantly different. The heat accumulation in the highway embankment is mainly due to the black bituminous pavement, but in the railway embankment with its gravel surfaces, it mainly comes from the side slopes. As a result, the net heat accumulation of the highway embankment is three times higher than that in the railway. In expressway, the heat accumulation is further increased because of the wider pavement so that significantly more heat will be accumulated in the roadbed beneath the centerline area. Thus, the thermal stability of the fro- zen-soil roadbed and the underlying permafrost of the QTE can be seriously threatened without proper engineering measures protection against thawing. Based on research and practical experiences from the operating Qinghai-Tibet Railway （QTR） and the Qinghai-Tibet Highway （QTH）, combined with the predicted characteristics of heat transfer in an expressway embankment, nine kinds of engineering measures for mitigating the thaw settlement of foundation soils through the cooling the roadbed soils were built and are being tested in the EDP. The design of the monitoring system for the EDP and the observed parameters were also described.展开更多
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) (Grant No.2019QZKK0307)。
文摘Climate change influences both ecosystems and ecosystem services.The impacts of climate change on ecosystems and ecosystem services have been separately documented.However,it is less well known how ecosystem changes driven by climate change will influence ecosystem services,especially in climate-sensitive regions.Here,we analyzed future climate trends between 2040 and 2100 under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP) scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6).We quantified their impacts on ecosystems patterns and on the ecosystem service of sandstorm prevention on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),one of the most climate-sensitive regions in the world,using Random Forest model(RF) and Revised Wind Erosion Equation(RWEQ).Strong warming(0.04℃/yr) and wetting(0.65 mm/yr) trends were projected from 2015 to 2100.Under these trends,there will be increased interspersion in the pattern of grassland and sparse vegetation with meadow and swamp vegetation,although their overall area will remain similar,while the areas of shrub and needleleaved forest classes will increase and move toward higher altitudes.Driven by the changes in ecosystem patterns caused by climate change indirectly,grassland will play an irreplaceable role in providing sandstorm prevention services,and sandstorm prevention services will increase gradually from 2040 to 2100(1.059-1.070 billion tons) on the QTP.However,some areas show a risk of deterioration in the future and these should be the focus of ecological rehabilitation.Our research helps to understand the cascading relationship among climate change,ecosystem patterns and ecosystem services,which provides important spatio-temporal information for future ecosystem service management.
基金The QTE EDP was funded by the Western Project Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-XB2-10)Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40730736)National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (Grant No. 40625004)
文摘As one part of the National Highway Network Planning in China, the Qinghai-Tibet Expressway （QTE） from Golmud to Lhasa will be built in the interior of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau （QTP） across about 630 km of permafrost lands. Due to the problematic interactions between the engineering foundations and permafrost, the frozen-soil roadbed of the QTE will be subjected to the more intense thermal disturbances due to the wider black surface. The design and construction for long-term thermal and mechanical stability will face more severe challenges than those in ordinary highways and railways in the same region. In order to provide scientific support for cold regions engineering practices, the QTE Experimental Demonstration Project （EDP） was constructed in situ in the vicinity of the Beilu＇he Permafrost Station in the interior of the QTP. In this paper, the anticipated problems of the proposed QTE project are enumerated, and the structures of the test sections for QTE EDP are described. Through numerical simulations, it was found that the heat transfer processes occurring in each specific road structure are significantly different. The heat accumulation in the highway embankment is mainly due to the black bituminous pavement, but in the railway embankment with its gravel surfaces, it mainly comes from the side slopes. As a result, the net heat accumulation of the highway embankment is three times higher than that in the railway. In expressway, the heat accumulation is further increased because of the wider pavement so that significantly more heat will be accumulated in the roadbed beneath the centerline area. Thus, the thermal stability of the fro- zen-soil roadbed and the underlying permafrost of the QTE can be seriously threatened without proper engineering measures protection against thawing. Based on research and practical experiences from the operating Qinghai-Tibet Railway （QTR） and the Qinghai-Tibet Highway （QTH）, combined with the predicted characteristics of heat transfer in an expressway embankment, nine kinds of engineering measures for mitigating the thaw settlement of foundation soils through the cooling the roadbed soils were built and are being tested in the EDP. The design of the monitoring system for the EDP and the observed parameters were also described.
