船舶进水应急风险评估DCEFM模型

This paper proposes a risk assessment model considering danger zone,capsizing time,and evaluation time factors(DCEFM)to quantify the emergency risk of ship inflow and calculate the degree of different factors to the emergency risk of water inflow.The DCEFM model divides the water inflow risk factors into danger zone,capsizing time,and evacuation time factors.The danger zone,capsizing time,and evacuation factors are calculated on the basis of damage stability probability,the numerical simulation of water inflow,and personnel evacuation simulation,respectively.The risk of a capsizing scenario is quantified by risk loss.The functional relationship between the location of the danger zone and the probability of damage,the information of breach and the water inflow time,the inclination angle and the evacuation time,and the contribution of different factors to the risk model of ship water inflow are obtained.Results of the DCEFM show that the longitudinal position of the damaged zone and the area of the breach have the greatest impact on the risk.A simple local watertight plate adjustment in the high-risk area can improve the safety of the ship.

Dynamic risk assessment of gas pipeline operation process by fusing visual and olfactory monitoring

With the rapid increase in urban gas consumption,the frequency of maintenance and repair of gas pipelines has escalated,leading to a rise in safety accidents during these processes.The traditional manual supervision model presents challenges such as inaccurate monitoring results,incomplete risk factor analysis,and a lack of quantitative risk assessment.This research focuses on developing a dynamic risk assessment technology for gas emergency repair operations by integrating the monitoring outcomes of artificial olfactory for gas leakage information and video object recognition for visual safety factor monitoring data.To quantitatively evaluate the risk of the operation process,a three-dimensional risk assessment model combining gas leakage with riskcorrelated sensitivity was established as well as a separate three-dimensional risk assessment model integrating visual risk factors with predictable risk disposition.Furthermore,a visual risk quantification expression mode based on the risk matrix-radar map method was introduced.Additionally,a risk quantification model based on the fusion of visual and olfactory results was formulated.The verification results of simulation scenarios based on field data indicate that the visual-olfactory fusion risk assessment method can more accurately reflect the dynamic risk level of the operation process compared to simple visual safety factor monitoring.The outcomes of this research can contribute to the identification of safety status and early warning of risks related to personnel,equipment,and environmental factors in emergency repair operations.Moreover,these results can be extended to other operational scenarios,such as oil and gas production stations and long-distance pipeline operations.

A Lamb wave quantification model for inclined cracks with experimental validation

This paper investigates the influence of crack orientation on damage quantification using Lamb wave in plate structures. Finite element simulation is performed to acquire Lamb wave signal responses for different configurations of crack orientations and crack lengths. Two Lamb wave features, namely the normalized amplitude and the phase change, are used as damage sensitive features to develop a crack size quantification model. A hypothesis based on the geometrical influence on signal features is proposed, and the crack size quantification model incorporating the orientation angle is established using the hypothesis. An index of Probability of Reliable Quantification(PRQ) is proposed to evaluate the performance of the model. The index can be used to determine the sizing risk in terms of probabilities. A realistic aluminum plate is used to obtain the experimental data using piezoelectric(PZT) wafer-type sensors around a center through crack. The experimental data are used to validate the overall method. Results indicate that the proposed model can yield reliable results for size quantification of inclined cracks.

Safety Assesment Model for Fully-Mechanized Coalface

In this paper, the problem of safety assessment for fully\|mechanized coalface is studied by using the theory of quantification (model (Ⅱ)), and an applied assessment model is also established, which finds a new way for mines safety assessment.

Finite element model validation of bridge based on structural health monitoring——Part Ⅱ:Uncertainty propagation and model validation

Because of uncertainties involved in modeling, construction, and measurement systems, the assessment of the FE model validation must be conducted based on stochastic mea- surements to provide designers with confidence for further applications. In this study, based on the updated model using response surface methodology, a practical model vali- dation methodology via uncertainty propagation is presented. Several criteria of testing/ analysis correlation are introduced, and the sources of model and testing uncertainties are also discussed. After that, Monte Carlo stochastic finite element （FE） method is employed to perform the uncertainty quantification and propagation. The proposed methodology is illustrated with the examination of the validity of a large-span prestressed concrete continuous rigid frame bridge monitored under operational conditions. It can be concluded that the calculated frequencies and vibration modes of the updated FE model of Xiabaishi Bridge are consistent with the measured ones. The relative errors of each frequency are all less than 3.7%. Meanwhile, the overlap ratio indexes of each frequency are all more than 75%; The MAC values of each calculated vibration frequency are all more than 90%. The model of Xiabaishi Bridge is valid in the whole operation space including experimental design space, and its confidence level is upper than 95%. The validated FE model of Xia- baishi Bridge can reflect the current condition of Xiabaishi Bridge, and also can be used as basis of bridge health monitoring, damage identification and safety assessment.