Based on the extreme forecast index (EFI) of ECMWF, the “observed” EFI (OEFI) of observation is defined and the EFI is calibrated. Then the EFI equivalent percentile (EFIEP) and EFI equivalent quantile (EFIEQ) are d...Based on the extreme forecast index (EFI) of ECMWF, the “observed” EFI (OEFI) of observation is defined and the EFI is calibrated. Then the EFI equivalent percentile (EFIEP) and EFI equivalent quantile (EFIEQ) are designed to forecast the daily extreme precipitation quantitatively. The formulation indicates that the EFIEP is correlated not only to the EFI but also to the proportion of no precipitation. This characteristic is prominent as two areas with nearly same EFIs but different proportions of no precipitation. Cases study shows that the EFIEP can forecast reliable percentile of daily precipitation and 100% percentiles are forecasted for over max extreme events. The EFIEQ is a considerable tool for quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). Compared to the probabilistic forecast of ensemble prediction system (EPS), it is quantitative and synthesizes the advantage of extreme precipitation location forecast of EPS. Using the observations of 2311 stations of China in 2016 to verify the EFIEP and EFIEQ, the results show that the forecast biases are around 1. The threat scores (TS) for 20 years return period events are about 0.21 and 0.07 for 36 and 180 hours lead times respectively. The equivalent threat scores (ETS) are all larger than 0 and nearly equal to the TS. The TS for heavy rainfall are 0.23 and 0.07 for 36 and 180 lead times respectively. The scores are better than those of high resolution deterministic model (HRDet) and show significant forecast skills for quantitative forecast of extreme daily precipitation.展开更多
In this paper, a feasible scheme is reported for the detection and identification of trace alcohol congeners that have identical elemental composition using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy （LIBS）. In the scheme...In this paper, a feasible scheme is reported for the detection and identification of trace alcohol congeners that have identical elemental composition using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy （LIBS）. In the scheme, an intensive pulsed laser is used to break down trace alcohol samples and the optical emission spectra of the induced plasma are collected for the detection and identifq ication of alcohol molecules. In order to prepare trace alcohol samples, pure ethanol or methanol is bubbled by argon carrier gas and then mixed into matrix gases. The key issue for the scheme is to constitute indices from the LIBS data of the alcohol samples. Two indices are found to be suitable for alcohol detection and identification. One is the emission intensity ratio （denoted as H/C） of the hydrogen line （653.3 nm） to the carbon line （247.9 nm） for identification and the other is the ratio of the carbon line （as C/Ar） or the hydrogen line （as H/Ar） to the argon lines （866.7 nm） for quantitative detection. The calibration experiment result shows that the index H/C is specific for alcohol congeners while almost being independent of alcohol concentration. In detail, the H/C keeps a specific constant of 34 and 23 respectively for ethanol and methanol. In the meanwhile, the C/Ar and H/Ar indices respond almost linearly to the alcohol concentration below 1300 ppm, and are therefore competent for concentration measurement. With the indices, trace alcohol concentration measurement achieves a limit of 140 ppm using a laser pulse energy of 300 mJ.展开更多
文摘Based on the extreme forecast index (EFI) of ECMWF, the “observed” EFI (OEFI) of observation is defined and the EFI is calibrated. Then the EFI equivalent percentile (EFIEP) and EFI equivalent quantile (EFIEQ) are designed to forecast the daily extreme precipitation quantitatively. The formulation indicates that the EFIEP is correlated not only to the EFI but also to the proportion of no precipitation. This characteristic is prominent as two areas with nearly same EFIs but different proportions of no precipitation. Cases study shows that the EFIEP can forecast reliable percentile of daily precipitation and 100% percentiles are forecasted for over max extreme events. The EFIEQ is a considerable tool for quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). Compared to the probabilistic forecast of ensemble prediction system (EPS), it is quantitative and synthesizes the advantage of extreme precipitation location forecast of EPS. Using the observations of 2311 stations of China in 2016 to verify the EFIEP and EFIEQ, the results show that the forecast biases are around 1. The threat scores (TS) for 20 years return period events are about 0.21 and 0.07 for 36 and 180 hours lead times respectively. The equivalent threat scores (ETS) are all larger than 0 and nearly equal to the TS. The TS for heavy rainfall are 0.23 and 0.07 for 36 and 180 lead times respectively. The scores are better than those of high resolution deterministic model (HRDet) and show significant forecast skills for quantitative forecast of extreme daily precipitation.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.11375041,10675028)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.DUT11ZD(G)06)the Fund of the Key Laboratory of Chemical Laser,CAS(No.20131008)
文摘In this paper, a feasible scheme is reported for the detection and identification of trace alcohol congeners that have identical elemental composition using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy （LIBS）. In the scheme, an intensive pulsed laser is used to break down trace alcohol samples and the optical emission spectra of the induced plasma are collected for the detection and identifq ication of alcohol molecules. In order to prepare trace alcohol samples, pure ethanol or methanol is bubbled by argon carrier gas and then mixed into matrix gases. The key issue for the scheme is to constitute indices from the LIBS data of the alcohol samples. Two indices are found to be suitable for alcohol detection and identification. One is the emission intensity ratio （denoted as H/C） of the hydrogen line （653.3 nm） to the carbon line （247.9 nm） for identification and the other is the ratio of the carbon line （as C/Ar） or the hydrogen line （as H/Ar） to the argon lines （866.7 nm） for quantitative detection. The calibration experiment result shows that the index H/C is specific for alcohol congeners while almost being independent of alcohol concentration. In detail, the H/C keeps a specific constant of 34 and 23 respectively for ethanol and methanol. In the meanwhile, the C/Ar and H/Ar indices respond almost linearly to the alcohol concentration below 1300 ppm, and are therefore competent for concentration measurement. With the indices, trace alcohol concentration measurement achieves a limit of 140 ppm using a laser pulse energy of 300 mJ.
