Analysis on the Epidemic Situation of Intercepted Alien Pests from Imported Hides in Hebei and the Countermeasures during 2013-2014

The situation of intercepted alien pests from imported hides in Hebei during 2013-2014 was systematically analyzed. The results showed that 163 batches of alien pests were intercepted, including 2 batches of quarantine weeds and they both were Italian cocklebur. According to the statistics of original countries, the intercepted hides from 21 countries all had alien pests, in which Australia was the largest number of batches and species of alien pests. The analysis results showed that there was severe risk in the imported hides carrying alien pests, thus to effectively prevent the invasion of alien pests to our country, several quarantine measures should be taken in the future, such as enhancing the quarantine inspection in ports, and promoting the personnel ability of interception and species identification of alien pests.

Global Stability of a Mumps Transmission Model with Quarantine Measure

In this paper,a model of mumps transmission with quarantine measure is proposed and then the control reproduction number Rc of the model is obtained.This model admits a unique endemic equilibrium P*if and only if Rc>1,while the disease-free equilibrium P0 always exists.By using the technique of constructing Lyapunov functions and the generalized Lyapunov-LaSalle theorem,we first show that the equilibrium P0 is globally asymptotically stable(GAS)if Rc≤1;second,we prove that the equilibrium P*is GAS if Rc>1.Our results reveal that mumps can be eliminated from the community for Rc≤1 and it will be persistent for Rc>1,and quarantine measure can also effectively control the mumps transmission.

Analysis of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Japan by SIQR model

The SIQR model is exploited to analyze the outbreak of COVID-19 in Japan where the number of the daily confirmed new cases is explicitly treated as an observable.It is assumed that the society consists of four compartments;susceptible individuals(S),infected individuals at large(I),quarantined patients(Q)and recovered individuals(R),and the time evolution of the pandemic is described by a set of ordinary differential equations.It is shown that the quarantine rate can be determined from the time dependence of the daily confirmed new cases,from which the number of infected individuals can be estimated.The infection rate and quarantine rate are determined for the period from mid-February to mid-April in Japan and transmission characteristics of the initial stages of the outbreak in Japan are analyzed in connection with the policies employed by the government.The effectiveness of different measures is discussed for controlling the outbreak and it is shown that identifying patients through PCR(Polymerase Chain Reaction)testing and isolating them in a quarantine is more effective than lockdown measures aimed at inhibiting social interactions of the general population.An effective reproduction number for infected individuals at large is introduced which is appropriate to epidemics controlled by quarantine measures.