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D-S理论和Markov链组合的桥梁性能退化预测研究
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作者 杨国俊 田里 +2 位作者 唐光武 毛建博 杜永峰 《应用数学和力学》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第4期416-428,共13页
为准确预测桥梁性能退化,考虑到数据随机性和微小扰动发生状态跳跃,提出了一种D-S(Dempster-Shafer)证据理论和Markov链组合的桥梁性能退化组合预测模型和性能退化率的概念.该模型基于指数平滑(exponential smoothing,ES)方法获得新的... 为准确预测桥梁性能退化,考虑到数据随机性和微小扰动发生状态跳跃,提出了一种D-S(Dempster-Shafer)证据理论和Markov链组合的桥梁性能退化组合预测模型和性能退化率的概念.该模型基于指数平滑(exponential smoothing,ES)方法获得新的预测数据序列,并利用Markov链和D-S理论不断进行优化,从而实现桥梁性能退化的组合预测.实际工程的应用结果表明:性能退化率可以直观地表征在梁性能退化的速度.其次,该模型的平均相对误差为1.54%,较于回归、灰色和模糊加权Markov链模型,精度分别提高了1.11%,0.88%和2.8%,而后验差比值为0.242,小于0.35;模型的标准差为9.021,相比其他模型分别减小了3.978,3.405和7.500,而变异系数为0.109,均小于其他模型,验证了组合预测模型在精度和稳定性方面的优越性,可为在役桥梁结构性能退化预测与维护提供理论基础. 展开更多
关键词 桥梁工程 性能退化预测 D-s证据理论 markov 组合预测模型 桥梁性能退化率
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The Stationary Distributions of a Class of Markov Chains
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作者 Chris Cannings 《Applied Mathematics》 2013年第5期769-773,共5页
The objective of this paper is to find the stationary distribution of a certain class of Markov chains arising in a biological population involved in a specific type of evolutionary conflict, known as Parker’s model.... The objective of this paper is to find the stationary distribution of a certain class of Markov chains arising in a biological population involved in a specific type of evolutionary conflict, known as Parker’s model. In a population of such players, the result of repeated, infrequent, attempted invasions using strategies from{0,1,2,…,m-1}, is a Markov chain. The stationary distributions of this class of chains, for m ε {3,4,…,∞} are derived in terms of previously known integer sequences. The asymptotic distribution (for m →∞) is derived. 展开更多
关键词 Parkers MODEL markov chains INTEGEr sEQUENCEs
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Applications of Symmetric Circulant Matrices to Isotropic Markov Chain Models and Electrical Impedance Tomography
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作者 Eugene Demidenko 《Advances in Pure Mathematics》 2017年第2期188-198,共11页
Symmetric circulant matrices (or shortly symmetric circulants) are a very special class of matrices sometimes arising in problems of discrete periodic convolutions with symmetric kernel. First, we collect major proper... Symmetric circulant matrices (or shortly symmetric circulants) are a very special class of matrices sometimes arising in problems of discrete periodic convolutions with symmetric kernel. First, we collect major properties of symmetric circulants scattered through the literature. Second, we report two new applications of these matrices to isotropic Markov chain models and electrical impedance tomography on a homogeneous disk with equidistant electrodes. A new special function is introduced for computation of the Ohm’s matrix. The latter application is illustrated with estimation of the resistivity of gelatin using an electrical impedance tomography setup. 展开更多
关键词 CIrCULANT Matrix Electrical Impedance TOMOGrAPHY LAPLACE Equation markov chain Ohm’s Law
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Identifying the dependency pattern of daily rainfall of Dhaka station in Bangladesh using Markov chain and logistic regression model
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作者 Mina Mahbub Hossain Sayedul Anam 《Agricultural Sciences》 2012年第3期385-391,共7页
Bangladesh is a subtropical monsoon climate characterized by wide seasonal variations in rainfall, moderately warm temperatures, and high humidity. Rainfall is the main source of irrigation water everywhere in the Ban... Bangladesh is a subtropical monsoon climate characterized by wide seasonal variations in rainfall, moderately warm temperatures, and high humidity. Rainfall is the main source of irrigation water everywhere in the Bangladesh where the inhabitants derive their income primarily from farming. Stochastic rainfall models were concerned with the occurrence of wet day and depth of rainfall for different regions to model the daily occurrence of rainfall and achieved satisfactory results around the world. In connection to the Markov chain of different order, logistic regression is conducted to visualize the dependence of current rainfall upon the rainfall of previous two-time period. It had been shown that wet day of the previous two time period compared to the dry day of previous two time period influences positively the wet day of current time period, that is the dependency of dry-wet spell for the occurrence of rain in the rainy season from April to September in the study area. Daily data are collected from meteorological department of about 26 years on rainfall of Dhaka station during the period January 1985-August 2011 to conduct the study. The test result shows that the occurrence of rainfall follows a second order Markov chain and logistic regression also tells that dry followed by dry and wet followed by wet is more likely for the rainfall of Dhaka station and also the model could perform adequately for many applications of rainfall data satisfactorily. 展开更多
关键词 Characteristics of rAINFALL in BANGLADEsH stochastic Models markov chain Mode Logistic regression Model Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC)
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Markov Chain Monte Carlo Solution of Laplace’s Equation in Axisymmetric Homogeneous Domain
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作者 Adebowale E. Shadare Matthew N. O. Sadiku Sarhan M. Musa 《Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation》 2019年第4期203-216,共14页
With increasing complexity of today’s electromagnetic problems, the need and opportunity to reduce domain sizes, memory requirement, computational time and possibility of errors abound for symmetric domains. With sev... With increasing complexity of today’s electromagnetic problems, the need and opportunity to reduce domain sizes, memory requirement, computational time and possibility of errors abound for symmetric domains. With several competing computational methods in recent times, methods with little or no iterations are generally preferred as they tend to consume less computer memory resources and time. This paper presents the application of simple and efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to the Laplace’s equation in axisymmetric homogeneous domains. Two cases of axisymmetric homogeneous problems are considered. Simulation results for analytical, finite difference and MCMC solutions are reported. The results obtained from the MCMC method agree with analytical and finite difference solutions. However, the MCMC method has the advantage that its implementation is simple and fast. 展开更多
关键词 Laplace’s Equation AXIsYMMETrIC Problem INHOMOGENEOUs DIrICHLET Boundary Conditions markov chain MONTE Carlo (MCMC)
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基于随机Petri网的GSM-R越区切换成功率的形式化分析 被引量:1
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作者 张友兵 刘岭 何祖涛 《华东交通大学学报》 2012年第4期73-80,共8页
首先建立了基于随机Petri网的GSM-R越区切换模型,在模型中综合考虑了信道故障、信道占用和越区切换参数配置不合理等影响越区切换成功率的因素。其次,说明了随机Petri网与马尔可夫链的关系,以及使用马尔可夫链分析"GSM-R越区切换... 首先建立了基于随机Petri网的GSM-R越区切换模型,在模型中综合考虑了信道故障、信道占用和越区切换参数配置不合理等影响越区切换成功率的因素。其次,说明了随机Petri网与马尔可夫链的关系,以及使用马尔可夫链分析"GSM-R越区切换的随机Petri网模型"的方法。最后,利用SPNP工具分析了影响GSM-R越区切换成功率的因素,发现GSM-R小区预留信道越多,越区切换成功率越高;列车运行速度越高,越区切换成功率越低;在一定范围内,列车追踪间隔越大,越区切换成功率就越高。 展开更多
关键词 随机PETrI网 CTCs GsM-r 越区切换 马尔可夫链
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可修不同部件n中取r至s系统的可靠性分析 被引量:1
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作者 罗强 方逵 周经纶 《模糊系统与数学》 CSCD 1997年第3期60-64,共5页
本文对可修不同部件n中取r至s系统进行了可靠性分析,这是一类典型的非单调关联系统。研究了该系统的工作条件和故障模式,并针对简单情形得到了此类可修系统的工作状态空间,给出了系统可靠度和系统首次故障前的平均时间MTTFF... 本文对可修不同部件n中取r至s系统进行了可靠性分析,这是一类典型的非单调关联系统。研究了该系统的工作条件和故障模式,并针对简单情形得到了此类可修系统的工作状态空间,给出了系统可靠度和系统首次故障前的平均时间MTTFF的Laplace变换表达式。 展开更多
关键词 非单调关联系统 可靠性 马氏过程 可修系统
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软件测试的一种数学优化方法──由Fokker Planck方程得到的Markov链算法
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作者 段虞荣 曾昭才 段绍光 《重庆大学学报(自然科学版)》 CSCD 1996年第6期66-72,共7页
从数学优化角度对软件测试问题进行探索性研究,将软件测试中的结构测试问题转化为一个组合最优化问题,然后利用Fokker-Planck方程的离散形式而得到的Markov链为基础的一个算法求解.最后给出了几个测试实例的部分... 从数学优化角度对软件测试问题进行探索性研究,将软件测试中的结构测试问题转化为一个组合最优化问题,然后利用Fokker-Planck方程的离散形式而得到的Markov链为基础的一个算法求解.最后给出了几个测试实例的部分数值结果。 展开更多
关键词 软件测试 优化 F-P方程 马尔柯夫链
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Consecutive-(r,f,k) out-of-n:F和Consecutive-(f,g)-out-of-(r,n):F线性系统的可靠性 被引量:2
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作者 杨海生 崔利荣 《数理统计与管理》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第3期321-328,共8页
Consecutive-(r,f,k)-out-of-n:F系统由n个单元顺序连结而成,仅当在连续的r个单元中,至少有f个失效或者至少连续k个失效,整个系统才失效;而Consecutive-(f,g)-out-of-(r,n):F系统由n个单元顺序连结而成,仅当在整个系统中至少有f个失效... Consecutive-(r,f,k)-out-of-n:F系统由n个单元顺序连结而成,仅当在连续的r个单元中,至少有f个失效或者至少连续k个失效,整个系统才失效;而Consecutive-(f,g)-out-of-(r,n):F系统由n个单元顺序连结而成,仅当在整个系统中至少有f个失效或者在连续的r个单元中,至少有g个失效,整个系统才失效。本文运用马氏链嵌入方法,在单元之间相互独立以及单元之间马氏相关这两种情况下,给出线性系统的可靠性。 展开更多
关键词 Consecutive-(r f k)-out-of-n: F系统 Consecutive-(f g)-out-of-( r n):F系统 可靠性 马氏链嵌入法 线性系统
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线性和环型Consecutive-k-out-of-r-from-n:F系统可靠性的精确解 被引量:2
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作者 韩清 《数理统计与管理》 CSSCI 北大核心 2002年第5期26-31,25,共7页
本文利用马氏链嵌入法给出了工程上被称为Consecutive k out of r from n :F系统的可靠性精确解。这种方法适用于较复杂的系统可靠性计算 ,且易于在计算机上实现。
关键词 Consecutive-k-out-of-r-from-n:F系统 可靠性 精确解 马氏链嵌入法 scan统计量
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基于数学模型的GPRS网络性能研究
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作者 郝慧艳 赵辉 +1 位作者 杨明 薛亚奎 《华北工学院学报》 2004年第6期463-466,共4页
 基于通用分组无线业务(GeneralPacketRadioService,GPRS)的语音业务在一定的动态信道分配方案下对有限信道资源的共享,建立了一个二维的连续时间的Markov链模型,采用一种近似求解的方法求得Markov链的稳态解,利用M/M/s/s队列模型通过...  基于通用分组无线业务(GeneralPacketRadioService,GPRS)的语音业务在一定的动态信道分配方案下对有限信道资源的共享,建立了一个二维的连续时间的Markov链模型,采用一种近似求解的方法求得Markov链的稳态解,利用M/M/s/s队列模型通过数值计算可以估计出GSM/GPRS网络的一些主要性能,如呼叫阻塞率,数据平均传输速率,信道利用率等.计算结果表明:该模型对于估计网络性能是有效的,对于网络优化也具有一定的辅助作用. 展开更多
关键词 GsM/GPrs网络 信道利用率 动态信道分配 呼叫阻塞率 信道资源 通用分组无线业务 网络优化 近似 估计 稳态解
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EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMICS ON ONE-DIMENSIONAL CYCLE WITH SHIFTING MECHANISM AND TINY MUTATION RATE 被引量:1
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作者 王先甲 兰军 +1 位作者 董前进 雷国梁 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第1期95-104,共10页
In this paper we study the impact of tiny mutation on the evolutionary dynamics on one-dimensional cycle with shifting mechanism. The evolutionary success is evaluated by investigating the stationary distribution of t... In this paper we study the impact of tiny mutation on the evolutionary dynamics on one-dimensional cycle with shifting mechanism. The evolutionary success is evaluated by investigating the stationary distribution of the ergodic process with the idea of viscosity solutions. The cooperative behaviors in ecosystem and social system are briefly discussed by applying the results to the prisoner's dilemma game. 展开更多
关键词 evolutionary games Moran process markov chain prisoners dilemma game
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基于CA-MARKOV模型的辽宁省大连市金州区土地生态安全评价 被引量:4
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作者 张召鹏 《国土与自然资源研究》 2018年第1期27-30,共4页
根据"P-S-R"框架确立指标体系,GIS渔网功能计算区域土地生态安全数值,运用CA-MARKOV模型根据2005、2010、2015年土地生态安全状态模拟出2020年金州区土地生态安全状态,结果表明2005-2010年金州区土地生态安全处于恶化状态,生... 根据"P-S-R"框架确立指标体系,GIS渔网功能计算区域土地生态安全数值,运用CA-MARKOV模型根据2005、2010、2015年土地生态安全状态模拟出2020年金州区土地生态安全状态,结果表明2005-2010年金州区土地生态安全处于恶化状态,生态安全指数从0.45到0.37,2010-2020年处于逐步上升状态,从0.37到0.78。呈现了土地生态安全的先前阶段的退化过程以及后期的逐步上升好转的演变趋势,土地的生态服务于支撑能力不断提高,生态环境质量不断好转,该研究为土地生态敏感区的相关政策和规划提供相关的科学依据和数据基础以期为相关土地规划提供理论依据。 展开更多
关键词 “P-s-r CA-markov 土地生态安全 金州区
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基于Markov过程的宽间隔跳频地址码序列的概率分布及谱特性的研究 被引量:1
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作者 关胜勇 姚富强 《电子学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2003年第7期998-1001,共4页
本文给出了和宽间隔跳频地址码序列相对应的Markov过程模型 ,并基于此模型研究了具有实对称特性的q元宽间隔跳频地址码序列的一步转移概率矩阵P和n步转移概率矩阵P(n) 及n步转移概率p(n)ij ,给出了最小间隔d =1时p(n)ij 的解析表达式和d... 本文给出了和宽间隔跳频地址码序列相对应的Markov过程模型 ,并基于此模型研究了具有实对称特性的q元宽间隔跳频地址码序列的一步转移概率矩阵P和n步转移概率矩阵P(n) 及n步转移概率p(n)ij ,给出了最小间隔d =1时p(n)ij 的解析表达式和d >1时以用正交矩阵和特征矩阵来表示的p(n)ij 一般表达式 .然后 ,根据一般形式的P(n) 定义了q元宽间隔跳频地址码序列的自相关函数和N步谱 . 展开更多
关键词 宽间隔跳频地址码 markov 统计检验 谱分析
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Metropolis蒙特卡罗计算方法的新发展及应用
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作者 何淑芷 刘策军 《华南理工大学学报(自然科学版)》 EI CAS CSCD 1995年第9期99-104,共6页
本文从统计物理角度阐述了Metropolis蒙特卡罗计算方法原理,分析了近年来成功应用于统计物理模型相变研究上这一方法的新发展.然后采用该方法考察淬火座稀释的二维XY模型以分析其相交状况.计算结果显示该模型相变存在,... 本文从统计物理角度阐述了Metropolis蒙特卡罗计算方法原理,分析了近年来成功应用于统计物理模型相变研究上这一方法的新发展.然后采用该方法考察淬火座稀释的二维XY模型以分析其相交状况.计算结果显示该模型相变存在,并同时给出相变温度近似值. 展开更多
关键词 蒙特卡罗法 统计模型 XY模型 统计物理
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Research of Enterprise Storage Ecosystem Based on Storage Theory and Nonlinear Discrete Optimization
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作者 Zixin Lu Jiaqi Zhu Yufeng Gui 《Applied Mathematics》 2018年第6期738-748,共11页
Warehousing and transferring strategies are an important part of business operations. The issue of optimal warehousing and transferring strategy is studied in this paper. Wal-Mart in Wuhan serves as an example to esta... Warehousing and transferring strategies are an important part of business operations. The issue of optimal warehousing and transferring strategy is studied in this paper. Wal-Mart in Wuhan serves as an example to establish a (s, S) random storage strategy model, a Markov chain model, and a nonlinear discrete programming model, aiming at maximizing the profit per cycle of every branch and further maximizing the company’s total profit per cycle. Among them, the random storage strategy model establishes a security zone of inventory for every branch, that is, it can meet consumers’ demand without spending too much storage costs. The Markov chain model is used to get the probability of losing sales opportunities in every branch. The nonlinear discrete programming model takes into account the horizontal transferring among branches, which further maximizes the company’s overall profit expectations. The three models above can be used to formulate inventory strategies, assess risks, and provide advice for every branch in order to form a complete storage ecosystem and provide constructive suggestions for the company’s operations. 展开更多
关键词 MArKETING sTrATEGY (s s) random sTOrAGE sTrATEGY markov chain Discrete NONLINEAr Programming Model
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Entropy and Irreversibility in Classical and Quantum Mechanics 被引量:1
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作者 V.A.Antonov Boris P.Kondratyev 《Journal of Modern Physics》 2011年第6期519-532,共14页
Review of the irreversibility problem in modern physics with new researches is given. Some characteristics of the Markov chains are specified and the important property of monotonicity of a probability is formulated. ... Review of the irreversibility problem in modern physics with new researches is given. Some characteristics of the Markov chains are specified and the important property of monotonicity of a probability is formulated. Using one thin inequality, the behavior of relative entropy in the classical case is considered. Further we pass to studying of the irreversibility phenomena in quantum problems. By new method is received the Lindblad’s equation and its physical essence is explained. Deep analogy between the classical Markov processes and development described by the Lindblad’s equation is conducted. Using method of comparison of the Lind-blad’s equation with the linear Langevin equation we receive a system of differential equations, which are more general, than the Caldeira-Leggett equation. Here we consider quantum systems without inverse influ-ence on a surrounding background with high temperature. Quantum diffusion of a single particle is consid-ered and possible ways of the permission of the Schr?dinger’s cat paradox and the role of an external world for the phenomena with quantum irreversibility are discussed. In spite of previous opinion we conclude that in the equilibrium environment is not necessary to postulate the processes with collapses of wave functions. Besides, we draw attention to the fact that the Heisenberg’s uncertainty relation does not always mean the restriction is usually the product of the average values of commuting variables. At last, some prospects in the problem of quantum irreversibility are discussed. 展开更多
关键词 markov chains Irreversibility in Classical and Quantum Mechanics Lindblad Equation Caldeira-Leggett Equation Quantum Diffusion schrodingers Cat Paradox Heisenberg’s Uncertainty relation Collapse of Wave Function Effect of sokolov
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具有无限马尔可夫二维Roesser系统的模糊H∞状态反馈控制
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作者 叶志勇 严芳 +2 位作者 罗小玉 何鑫 赵红霞 《重庆理工大学学报(自然科学)》 CAS 北大核心 2022年第8期297-306,共10页
主要研究了带有无限状态空间马尔可夫链的二维Roesser Takagi-Sugeno(T-S)模糊模型系统的渐近均方稳定和H控制问题。首先,利用范数有界参数不确定性和转移概率矩阵,建立了离散时间无限马尔可夫链T-S模糊的Roesser模型系统;其次,通过构... 主要研究了带有无限状态空间马尔可夫链的二维Roesser Takagi-Sugeno(T-S)模糊模型系统的渐近均方稳定和H控制问题。首先,利用范数有界参数不确定性和转移概率矩阵,建立了离散时间无限马尔可夫链T-S模糊的Roesser模型系统;其次,通过构造一个李雅普诺夫函数,利用现代概率论和线性矩阵不等式等方法证明了闭环系统的渐近均方稳定性和H控制。最后,利用Matlab仿真模拟验证了其有效性和实用性。 展开更多
关键词 T-s模糊模型 李雅普诺夫函数 无限状态空间马尔可夫链
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基于IPAT-S脚本语言的土地利用情景分析及其应用 被引量:5
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作者 段增强 张凤荣 苗利梅 《农业工程学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2006年第7期75-81,F0002,共8页
建立一种土地利用情景分析方法,该方法以土地利用转换系统最小变动为原则,对不同土地利用的情景设置,利用线性目标优化的Markov链方法生成逐年土地利用面积转换矩阵和各土地利用类型面积。IPAT-S脚本语言实现了上述方法,并提供了上... 建立一种土地利用情景分析方法,该方法以土地利用转换系统最小变动为原则,对不同土地利用的情景设置,利用线性目标优化的Markov链方法生成逐年土地利用面积转换矩阵和各土地利用类型面积。IPAT-S脚本语言实现了上述方法,并提供了上述方法与土地利用空间格局模拟进行耦合的接口。应用上述方法对海淀区2002-2015年土地利用变化进行了多情景分析,结果表明不同的土地利用情景设置对土地利用结构具有明显影响,城镇和工矿用地的集约度对耕地和园地面积的缩减速度具有决定性的作用。 展开更多
关键词 土地利用 情景分析 线性目标规划 markov IPAT-s
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时隙ALOHA协议(S-ALOHA)的离散时间排队网络模型的建立及性能分析 被引量:3
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作者 金顺福 田乃硕 《计算机工程与应用》 CSCD 北大核心 2001年第20期35-36,71,共3页
文章分析了S-ALOHA协议的模型,并分别用马尔克夫链方法及离散时间排队网络方法完成了S-ALOHA吞吐量(S)的性能分析。
关键词 马尔柯夫链 离散时间排队网络 吞吐量 时隙ALOHA协议 性能分析 计算机网络
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