Assessing recent recurrence after hepatectomy for hepatitis Brelated hepatocellular carcinoma by a predictive model based on sarcopenia

BACKGROUND Sarcopenia may be associated with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)following hepatectomy.But traditional single clinical variables are still insufficient to predict recurrence.We still lack effective prediction models for recent recurrence(time to recurrence<2 years)after hepatectomy for HCC.AIM To establish an interventable prediction model to estimate recurrence-free survival(RFS)after hepatectomy for HCC based on sarcopenia.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 283 hepatitis B-related HCC patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for the first time,and the skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar spine was measured by preoperative computed tomography.94 of these patients were enrolled for external validation.Cox multivariate analysis was per-formed to identify the risk factors of postoperative recurrence in training cohort.A nomogram model was developed to predict the RFS of HCC patients,and its predictive performance was validated.The predictive efficacy of this model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve.RESULTS Multivariate analysis showed that sarcopenia[Hazard ratio(HR)=1.767,95%CI:1.166-2.678,P<0.05],alpha-fetoprotein≥40 ng/mL(HR=1.984,95%CI:1.307-3.011,P<0.05),the maximum diameter of tumor>5 cm(HR=2.222,95%CI:1.285-3.842,P<0.05),and hepatitis B virus DNA level≥2000 IU/mL(HR=2.1,95%CI:1.407-3.135,P<0.05)were independent risk factors associated with postoperative recurrence of HCC.Based on the sarcopenia to assess the RFS model of hepatectomy with hepatitis B-related liver cancer disease(SAMD)was established combined with other the above risk factors.The area under the curve of the SAMD model was 0.782(95%CI:0.705-0.858)in the training cohort(sensitivity 81%,specificity 63%)and 0.773(95%CI:0.707-0.838)in the validation cohort.Besides,a SAMD score≥110 was better to distinguish the high-risk group of postoperative recurrence of HCC.CONCLUSION Sarcopenia is associated with recent recurrence after hepatectomy for hepatitis B-related HCC.A nutritional status-based prediction model is first established for postoperative recurrence of hepatitis B-related HCC,which is superior to other models and contributes to prognosis prediction.

Recurrence scoring system predicting early recurrence for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma undergoing pancreatectomy and portomesenteric vein resection

BACKGROUND Pancreatectomy with concomitant portomesenteric vein resection(PVR)enables patients with portomesenteric vein(PV)involvement to achieve radical resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma,however,early recurrence(ER)is frequently observed.AIM To predict ER and identify patients at high risk of ER for individualized therapy.METHODS Totally 238 patients undergoing pancreatectomy and PVR were retrospectively enrolled and were allocated to the training or validating cohort.Univariate Cox and LASSO regression analyses were performed to construct serum recurrence score(SRS)based on 26 serum-derived parameters.Uni-and multivariate Cox regression analyses of SRS and 18 clinicopathological variables were performed to establish a Nomogram.Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy.Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test.RESULTS Independent serum-derived recurrence-relevant factors of LASSO regression model,including postoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9,postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen,postoperative carbohydrate antigen 125,preoperative albumin(ALB),preoperative platelet to ALB ratio,and postoperative platelets to lymphocytes ratio,were used to construct SRS[area under the curve(AUC):0.855,95%CI:0.786–0.924].Independent risk factors of recurrence,including SRS[hazard ratio(HR):1.688,95%CI:1.075-2.652],pain(HR:1.653,95%CI:1.052-2.598),perineural invasion(HR:2.070,95%CI:0.827-5.182),and PV invasion(HR:1.603,95%CI:1.063-2.417),were used to establish the recurrence nomogram(AUC:0.869,95%CI:0.803-0.934).Patients with either SRS>0.53 or recurrence nomogram score>4.23 were considered at high risk for ER,and had poor long-term outcomes.CONCLUSION The recurrence scoring system unique for pancreatectomy and PVR,will help clinicians in predicting recurrence efficiently and identifying patients at high risk of ER for individualized therapy.

Identifying timing and risk factors for early recurrence of resectable rectal cancer: A single center retrospective study

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common malignancy and various methods have been introduced to decrease the possibility of recurrence.Early recurrence(ER)is related to worse prognosis.To date,few observational studies have reported on the analysis of rectal cancer.Hence,we reported on the timing and risk factors for the ER of resectable rectal cancer at our institute.AIM To analyze a cohort of patients with local and/or distant recurrence following the radical resection of the primary tumor.METHODS Data were retrospectively collected from the institutional database from March 2011 to January 2021.Clinicopathological data at diagnosis,perioperative and postoperative data,and first recurrence were collected and analyzed.ER was defined via receiver operating characteristic curve.Prognostic factors were evaluated using the Kaplan–Meier method and Cox proportional hazards modeling.RESULTS We included 131 patients.The optimal cut off value of recurrence-free survival(RFS)to differentiate between ER(n=55,41.9%)and late recurrence(LR)(n=76,58.1%)was 8 mo.The median post-recurrence survival(PRS)of ER and LR was 1.4 mo and 2.9 mo,respectively(P=0.008)but PRS was not strongly associated with RFS(R^(2)=0.04).Risk factors included age≥70 years[hazard ratio(HR)=1.752,P=0.047],preoperative concurrent chemoradiotherapy(HR=3.683,P<0.001),colostomy creation(HR=2.221,P=0.036),and length of stay>9 d(HR=0.441,P=0.006).CONCLUSION RFS of 8 mo was the optimal cut-off value.Although ER was not associated with PRS,it was still related to prognosis;thus,intense surveillance is recommended.

Leveraging machine learning for early recurrence prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma:A step towards precision medicine

The high rate of early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)post curative surgical intervention poses a substantial clinical hurdle,impacting patient outcomes and complicating postoperative management.The advent of machine learning provides a unique opportunity to harness vast datasets,identifying subtle patterns and factors that elude conventional prognostic methods.Machine learning models,equipped with the ability to analyse intricate relationships within datasets,have shown promise in predicting outcomes in various medical disciplines.In the context of HCC,the application of machine learning to predict early recurrence holds potential for personalized postoperative care strategies.This editorial comments on the study carried out exploring the merits and efficacy of random survival forests(RSF)in identifying significant risk factors for recurrence,stratifying patients at low and high risk of HCC recurrence and comparing this to traditional COX proportional hazard models(CPH).In doing so,the study demonstrated that the RSF models are superior to traditional CPH models in predicting recurrence of HCC and represent a giant leap towards precision medicine.

Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery

Background:The high incidence of gallstone recurrence was a major concern for laparoscopic gallbladderpreserving surgery.This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery and to establish an individualized nomogram model to predict the risk of gallstone recurrence.Methods:The clinicopathological and follow-up data of 183 patients who were initially diagnosed with gallstones and treated with gallbladder-preserving surgery at our hospital from January 2012 to January 2019 were retrospectively collected.The independent predictive factors for gallstone recurrence following gallbladder-preserving surgery were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis.A nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence was constructed based on the selected variables.The C-index,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram model for gallstone recurrence.Results:During the follow-up period,a total of 65 patients experienced gallstone recurrence,and the recurrence rate was 35.5%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the course of gallstones>2 years[odds ratio(OR)=2.567,95%confidence interval(CI):1.270-5.187,P=0.009],symptomatic gallstones(OR=2.589,95%CI:1.059-6.329,P=0.037),multiple gallstones(OR=2.436,95%CI:1.133-5.237,P=0.023),history of acute cholecystitis(OR=2.778,95%CI:1.178-6.549,P=0.020)and a greasy diet(OR=2.319,95%CI:1.186-4.535,P=0.014)were independent risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery.A nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of gallstones was established based on the above five variables.The results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.692,suggesting it was valuable to predict gallstone recurrence.Moreover,the calibration curve showed good consistency between the predicted probability and actual probability.Conclusions:The nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence might help clinicians develop a proper treatment strategy for patients with gallstones.Gallbladder-preserving surgery should be cautiously considered for patients with high recurrence risks.

Computed tomography-based radiomics to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma post-hepatectomy in patients background on cirrhosis

BACKGROUND The prognosis for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)in the presence of cirrhosis is unfavourable,primarily attributable to the high incidence of recurrence.AIM To develop a machine learning model for predicting early recurrence(ER)of posthepatectomy HCC in patients with cirrhosis and to stratify patients’overall survival(OS)based on the predicted risk of recurrence.METHODS In this retrospective study,214 HCC patients with cirrhosis who underwent curative hepatectomy were examined.Radiomics feature selection was conducted using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and recursive feature elimination methods.Clinical-radiologic features were selected through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.Five machine learning methods were used for model comparison,aiming to identify the optimal model.The model’s performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve[area under the curve(AUC)],calibration,and decision curve analysis.Additionally,the Kaplan-Meier(K-M)curve was used to evaluate the stratification effect of the model on patient OS.RESULTS Within this study,the most effective predictive performance for ER of post-hepatectomy HCC in the background of cirrhosis was demonstrated by a model that integrated radiomics features and clinical-radiologic features.In the training cohort,this model attained an AUC of 0.844,while in the validation cohort,it achieved a value of 0.790.The K-M curves illustrated that the combined model not only facilitated risk stratification but also exhibited significant discriminatory ability concerning patients’OS.CONCLUSION The combined model,integrating both radiomics and clinical-radiologic characteristics,exhibited excellent performance in HCC with cirrhosis.The K-M curves assessing OS revealed statistically significant differences.

From prediction to prevention:Machine learning revolutionizes hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence monitoring

In this editorial,we comment on the article by Zhang et al entitled Development of a machine learning-based model for predicting the risk of early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma.Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),which is characterized by high incidence and mortality rates,remains a major global health challenge primarily due to the critical issue of postoperative recurrence.Early recurrence,defined as recurrence that occurs within 2 years posttreatment,is linked to the hidden spread of the primary tumor and significantly impacts patient survival.Traditional predictive factors,including both patient-and treatment-related factors,have limited predictive ability with respect to HCC recurrence.The integration of machine learning algorithms is fueled by the exponential growth of computational power and has revolutionized HCC research.The study by Zhang et al demonstrated the use of a groundbreaking preoperative prediction model for early postoperative HCC recurrence.Challenges persist,including sample size constraints,issues with handling data,and the need for further validation and interpretability.This study emphasizes the need for collaborative efforts,multicenter studies and comparative analyses to validate and refine the model.Overcoming these challenges and exploring innovative approaches,such as multi-omics integration,will enhance personalized oncology care.This study marks a significant stride toward precise,efficient,and personalized oncology practices,thus offering hope for improved patient outcomes in the field of HCC treatment.

In situ injectable hydrogel encapsulating Mn/NO-based immune nano-activator for prevention of postoperative tumor recurrence

Postoperative tumor recurrence remains a predominant cause of treatment failure. In this study, we developed an in situ injectable hydrogel, termed MPB-NO@DOX + ATRA gel, which was locally formed within the tumor resection cavity. The MPB-NO@DOX + ATRA gel was fabricated by mixing a thrombin solution, a fibrinogen solution containing all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA), and a Mn/NO-based immune nano-activator termed MPB-NO@DOX. ATRA promoted the differentiation of cancer stem cells, inhibited cancer cell migration, and affected the polarization of tumor-associated macrophages. The outer MnO2 shell disintegrated due to its reaction with glutathione and hydrogen peroxide in the cytoplasm to release Mn2+ and produce O2, resulting in the release of doxorubicin (DOX). The released DOX entered the nucleus and destroyed DNA, and the fragmented DNA cooperated with Mn2+ to activate the cGAS-STING pathway and stimulate an anti-tumor immune response. In addition, when MPB-NO@DOX was exposed to 808 nm laser irradiation, the Fe-NO bond was broken to release NO, which downregulated the expression of PD-L1 on the surface of tumor cells and reversed the immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment. In conclusion, the MPB-NO@DOX + ATRA gel exhibited excellent anti-tumor efficacy. The results of this study demonstrated the great potential of in situ injectable hydrogels in preventing postoperative tumor recurrence.

Recurrence and influencing factors of hepatitis B surface antigen seroclearance induced by peginterferon alpha-based regimens

BACKGROUND The long-term stability of hepatitis B surface antigen(HBsAg)seroclearance following peginterferon alpha(peg-IFN-α)-based therapy has not been extensively studied,leaving the full potential and limitations of this strategy unclear.AIM To assess HBsAg recurrence after seroclearance achieved by peg-IFN-αregimens.METHODS This prospective,multicenter,observational study was conducted from November 2015 to June 2021 at three Chinese hospitals:The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University,Ankang Central Hospital,and The Affiliated Hospital of Yan’an University.Participants who achieved HBsAg seroclearance following peg-IFN-α-based treatments were monitored every 4-12 weeks post-treatment for hepatitis B virus(HBV)markers,HBV DNA,and liver function.The primary outcome was HBV recurrence,defined as the reemergence of HBsAg,HBV DNA,or both,at least twice within 4-8 weeks of follow-up.RESULTS In total,121 patients who achieved HBsAg seroclearance were enrolled.After a median follow-up of 84.0(48.0,132.0)weeks,four subjects were lost to follow-up.HBsAg recurrence was detected in 16 patients.The cumulative HBsAg recurrence rate in the intention-to-treat population was 15.2%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that consolidation time<12 weeks[odds ratio(OR)=28.044,95%CI:4.525-173.791]and hepatitis B surface antibody disappearance during follow-up(OR=46.445,95%CI:2.571-838.957)were strong predictors of HBsAg recurrence.HBV DNA positivity and decompensation of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma were not observed.CONCLUSION HBsAg seroclearance following peg-IFN-αtreatment was durable over 84 weeks of follow-up with a cumulative recurrence rate of 15.2%.

Early gastric cancer recurrence after endoscopic submucosal dissection:Not to be ignored!

This editorial comments on the article“Efficacy of multi-slice spiral computed tomography in evaluating gastric cancer recurrence after endoscopic submucosal dissection”.We focus on the importance of paying more attention to postendoscopic submucosal dissection(ESD)gastric cancer recurrence in patients with early gastric cancer(EGC)and how to manage it effectively.ESD has been a wellknown treatment and the mainstay for EGC,with the advantages of less invasion and fewer complications when compared with traditional surgical procedures.Despite a lower local recurrence rate after ESD,the problem of postoperative recurrence in patients with EGC has become increasingly non-ignorable with the global popularization of ESD technology and the increasing number of post-ESD patients.

Pre-operative enhanced magnetic resonance imaging combined with clinical features predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after radical resection

BACKGROUND Indentifying predictive factors for postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)has great significance for patient prognosis.AIM To explore the value of gadolinium ethoxybenzyl diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid(Gd-EOB-DTPA)enhanced magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)combined with clinical features in predicting early recurrence of HCC after resection.METHODS A total of 161 patients with pathologically confirmed HCC were enrolled.The patients were divided into early recurrence and non-early recurrence group based on the follow-up results.The clinical,laboratory,pathological results and Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI imaging features were analyzed.RESULTS Of 161 patients,73 had early recurrence and 88 were had non-early recurrence.Univariate analysis showed that patient age,gender,serum alpha-fetoprotein level,the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage,China liver cancer(CNLC)stage,microvascular invasion(MVI),pathological satellite focus,tumor size,tumor number,tumor boundary,tumor capsule,intratumoral necrosis,portal vein tumor thrombus,large vessel invasion,nonperipheral washout,peritumoral enhancement,hepatobiliary phase(HBP)/tumor signal intensity(SI)/peritumoral SI,HBP peritumoral low signal and peritumoral delay enhancement were significantly associated with early recurrence of HCC after operation.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that patient age,MVI,CNLC stage,tumor boundary and large vessel invasion were independent predictive factors.External data validation indicated that the area under the curve of the combined predictors was 0.861,suggesting that multivariate logistic regression was a reasonable predictive model for early recurrence of HCC.CONCLUSION Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI combined with clinical features would help predicting the early recurrence of HCC after operation.

Dual-wavelength pumped latticed Fermi-Pasta-Ulam recurrences in nonlinear Schrödinger equation

We show that the nonlinear stage of the dual-wavelength pumped modulation instability(MI)in nonlinear Schrödinger equation(NLSE)can be effectively analyzed by mode truncation methods.The resulting complicated heteroclinic structure of instability unveils all possible dynamic trajectories of nonlinear waves.Significantly,the latticed-Fermi-Pasta-Ulam recurrences on the modulated-wave background in NLSE are also investigated and their dynamic trajectories run along the Hamiltonian contours of the heteroclinic structure.It is demonstrated that there has much richer dynamic behavior,in contrast to the nonlinear waves reported before.This novel nonlinear wave promises to inject new vitality into the study of MI.

Prognostic factors of early recurrence after complete cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy

BACKGROUND Although cytoreductive surgery(CRS)and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy(HIPEC)offer the potential for long-term survival in peritoneal carcinomatosis,outcomes following CRS/HIPEC vary significantly.AIM To identify the clinical factors associated with progression-free survival(PFS)after complete CRS/HIPEC in patients with colorectal/high-grade appendiceal,ovarian,and gastric cancers.METHODS We retrospectively evaluated the risk of recurrence within 1 year after CRS/HIPEC and its impact on overall survival(OS)in patients recruited between 2015 and 2020.Logistic regression models were used to assess the prognostic factors for the risk of recurrence within 1 year.Kaplan–Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between recurrence and OS.RESULTS Of the 80 enrolled patients,39 had an unfavorable PFS(<1 year)and 41 had a favorable PFS(≥1 year).Simple logistic models revealed that the patients with a completeness of cytoreduction score of 0(CC-0)or length of CRS≤6 h had a favorable PFS[odds ratio(OR)=0.141,P=0.004;and OR=0.361,P=0.027,respectively].In multiple logistic regression,achieving CC-0 was the strongest prognostic factor for a favorable PFS(OR=0.131,P=0.005).A peritoneal cancer index score>12 was associated with a lower rate of achieving CC-0(P=0.027).The favorable PFS group had a significantly longer OS(median 81.7 mo vs 17.0 mo,P<0.001).CONCLUSION Achieving CC-0 was associated with a lower early recurrence rate and improved long-term survival.This study underscores the importance of selecting appropriate candidates for CRS/HIPEC to manage peritoneal carcinomatosis.

Medical imaging for the diagnosis,recurrence and metastasis evaluation of clear cell sarcoma

Clear cell sarcoma(CCS)of soft tissue is extremely rare,accounting for approximately 1%of all soft tissue tumours.It is very difficult to diagnose CCS based on clinical manifestations.Magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)provides highresolution images of soft tissues and pathological features such as mucus,necrosis,bleeding,and fat through high and low signals on T1 weighted image(T1WI)and T2 weighted image(T2WI).On the other hand,the paramagnetism of melanin in CCS shortens the relaxation time of T1 and T2,and high signal intensity on T1WI and low signal intensity on T2WI can be found.This is different from most other soft tissue sarcomas.At present,the treatment method for CCS is surgical resection.MRI can effectively display the tumour edge,extent of surrounding oedema,and extent of fat involvement,which is highly important for guiding surgical resection and predicting postoperative recurrence.As an invasive sarcoma,CCS has a high risk of metastasis.Regardless of the pathological condition of the resected tumour,MRI or computed tomography(CT)should be performed every 1-2 years to assess recurrence at the primary site and to screen for metastasis in the lungs,liver,and bones.If necessary,PET-CT can be performed to evaluate the overall condition of the patient.

Development and validation of a circulating tumor DNA-based optimization-prediction model for short-term postoperative recurrence of endometrial cancer

BACKGROUND Endometrial cancer(EC)is a common gynecological malignancy that typically requires prompt surgical intervention;however,the advantage of surgical management is limited by the high postoperative recurrence rates and adverse outcomes.Previous studies have highlighted the prognostic potential of circulating tumor DNA(ctDNA)monitoring for minimal residual disease in patients with EC.AIM To develop and validate an optimized ctDNA-based model for predicting shortterm postoperative EC recurrence.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 294 EC patients treated surgically from 2015-2019 to devise a short-term recurrence prediction model,which was validated on 143 EC patients operated between 2020 and 2021.Prognostic factors were identified using univariate Cox,Lasso,and multivariate Cox regressions.A nomogram was created to predict the 1,1.5,and 2-year recurrence-free survival(RFS).Model performance was assessed via receiver operating characteristic(ROC),calibration,and decision curve analyses(DCA),leading to a recurrence risk stratification system.RESULTS Based on the regression analysis and the nomogram created,patients with postoperative ctDNA-negativity,postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen 125(CA125)levels of<19 U/mL,and grade G1 tumors had improved RFS after surgery.The nomogram’s efficacy for recurrence prediction was confirmed through ROC analysis,calibration curves,and DCA methods,highlighting its high accuracy and clinical utility.Furthermore,using the nomogram,the patients were successfully classified into three risk subgroups.CONCLUSION The nomogram accurately predicted RFS after EC surgery at 1,1.5,and 2 years.This model will help clinicians personalize treatments,stratify risks,and enhance clinical outcomes for patients with EC.

Impact of different anastomosis methods on post-recurrence after intestinal resection for Crohn's disease:A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Crohn's disease(CD)is a chronic inflammatory disease of the gastrointestinal tract,often requiring intestinal resection as a common treatment.However,recurrence after surgery is common.The anastomotic configuration after bowel resection appears to be associated with the recurrence of CD.Previous studies have suggested that the Kono-S anastomosis may help to reduce the recurrence rate.However,the results remain controversial.Therefore,evidence-based evidence is needed to prove the advantages of Kono-S anastomosis.AIM To measure the influence of anastomosis techniques on the long-term relapse rate of CD by conducting a meta-analysis.METHODS PubMed,Scopus,and Cochrane Library were searched until October 8,2023.Patients who underwent intestinal resection due to CD were included.The intervention measures included Kono-S anastomosis,whereas the control group received traditional anastomosis such as end-to-end,end-to-side,and side-to-side anastomosis.Only randomized clinical trials and observational studies were included.The primary outcome measures were hospital stay post-surgery,overall postoperative complication incidence,the proportion of Clavien-Dindo grade IIIa or higher,overall postoperative recurrence rate,and Rutgeerts score.RESULTS From 2011 to 2023,six articles met the inclusion and exclusion criteria.The results indicated that Kono-S anastomosis can reduce the hospital stay post-surgery of patients with CD[MD=-0.26,95%CI:-0.42 to-0.10,P=0.002]than other traditional anastomosis methods.Compared to other traditional anastomosis methods,Kono-S anastomosis can significantly reduce the total recurrence rate[MD=0.40,95%CI:0.17 to 0.98,P=0.05]and postoperative Rutgeerts score[MD=-0.81,95%CI:-0.96 to-0.66,P<0.001]in patients with CD.However,there is no significant disparity in the overall occurrence of postoperative complications and the proportion of Clavien-Dindo≥IIIa.CONCLUSION Kono-S anastomosis has the potential to expedite the recuperation of CD and diminish relapse hazards;however,additional larger trials are necessary to authenticate its effectiveness.

Establishment and evaluation of prediction model of recurrence after laparoscopic choledocholithotomy

BACKGROUND Choledocholithiasis is a common clinical bile duct disease,laparoscopic choledocholithotomy is the main clinical treatment method for choledocho-lithiasis.However,the recurrence of postoperative stones is a big challenge for patients and doctors.AIM To explore the related risk factors of gallstone recurrence after laparoscopic choledocholithotomy,establish and evaluate a clinical prediction model.METHODS A total of 254 patients who underwent laparoscopic choledocholithotomy in the First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University from December 2017 to December 2020 were selected as the research subjects.Clinical data of the patients were collected,and the recurrence of gallstones was recorded based on the postope-rative follow-up.The results were analyzed and a clinical prediction model was established.RESULTS Postoperative stone recurrence rate was 10.23%(26 patients).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that cholangitis,the diameter of the common bile duct,the diameter of the stone,number of stones,lithotripsy,preoperative total bilirubin,and T tube were risk factors associated with postoperative recurrence(P<0.05).The clinical prediction model was ln(p/1-p)=-6.853+1.347×cholangitis+1.535×choledochal diameter+2.176×stone diameter+1.784×stone number+2.242×lithotripsy+0.021×preoperative total bilirubin+2.185×T tube.CONCLUSION Cholangitis,the diameter of the common bile duct,the diameter of the stone,number of stones,lithotripsy,preoperative total bilirubin,and T tube are the associated risk factors for postoperative recurrence of gallstone.The prediction model in this study has a good prediction effect,which has a certain reference value for recurrence of gallstone after laparoscopic choledocholi-thotomy.

Proposal for a new classification of anorectal abscesses based on clinical characteristics and postoperative recurrence

BACKGROUND Current surgical procedures for anorectal abscesses,including incision and drainage alone or combined concurrent fistulotomy,remain controversial primarily due to the unpredictability of postoperative recurrence or the progression to anal fistula.AIM To evaluate factors that predict postoperative recurrence of anorectal abscesses and propose a new classification to guide surgical procedures.METHODS In this retrospective study,525 patients with anorectal abscesses treated by incision and drainage alone,at a tertiary general hospital from August 2012 to July 2022,were included.A new classification for anorectal abscesses based on their propensity to develop into fistulas,considering 18 other potential risk factors,was established.These factors,from electronic medical records,were screened for significance using theχ^(2)test and subsequently analyzed with multivariate logistic regression to evaluate their relationship with postoperative recurrence of anorectal abscesses.RESULTSOne year post-follow-up,the overall recurrence rate was 39%:81.0%and 23.5%for fistula-prone and non-fistulaproneabscesses,respectively.Univariateχ^(2)analysis showed significant differences in recurrence rates based onanatomical classifications and pus culture results(P<0.05).Fistula-prone abscess,≥7 days between symptomonset and surgery,chronic diarrhea,preoperative antibiotic use,and local anesthesia were risk factors for recurrence,while diabetes mellitus was protective(P<0.05).Moreover,fistula-prone abscess[odds ratio(OR)=7.651,95%CI:4.049–14.458,P<0.001],≥7 days from symptom onset to surgery(OR=2.137,95%CI:1.090–4.190,P=0.027),chronic diarrhea(OR=2.508,95%CI:1.216–5.173,P=0.013),and local anesthesia(OR=2.308,95%CI:1.313–4.059,P=0.004)were independent risk factors for postoperative anorectal abscess recurrence using multivariatelogistic regression.Body mass index≥28(OR=2.935,95%CI:1.203–7.165,P=0.018)was an independentrisk factor for postoperative recurrence of non-fistula-prone abscess.CONCLUSIONThe choice of surgical procedure for treating anorectal abscesses should follow this new classification.Prompt andthorough incision and drainage can significantly reduce postoperative recurrence.

Postoperative serum tumor markers-based nomogram predicting early recurrence for patients undergoing radical resections of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND Early recurrence(ER)is associated with dismal outcomes in patients undergoing radical resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma(PDAC).Approaches for predicting ER will help clinicians in implementing individualized adjuvant therapies.Postoperative serum tumor markers(STMs)are indicators of tumor progression and may improve current systems for predicting ER.AIM To establish an improved nomogram based on postoperative STMs to predict ER in PDAC.METHODS We retrospectively enrolled 282 patients who underwent radical resection for PDAC at our institute between 2019 and 2021.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses of variables with or without postoperative STMs,were performed to identify independent risk factors for ER.A nomogram was constructed based on the independent postoperative STMs.Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to evaluate the area under the curve(AUC)of the nomogram.Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier survival plot and log-rank test.RESULTS Postoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 and carcinoembryonic antigen levels,preoperative carbohydrate antigen 125 levels,perineural invasion,and pTNM stage III were independent risk factors for ER in PDAC.The postoperative STMs-based nomogram(AUC:0.774,95%CI:0.713-0.835)had superior accuracy in predicting ER compared with the nomogram without postoperative STMs(AUC:0.688,95%CI:0.625-0.750)(P=0.016).Patients with a recurrence nomogram score(RNS)>1.56 were at high risk for ER,and had significantly poorer recurrence-free survival[median:3.08 months,interquartile range(IQR):1.80-8.15]than those with RNS≤1.56(14.00 months,IQR:6.67-24.80),P<0.001).CONCLUSION The postoperative STMs-based nomogram improves the predictive accuracy of ER in PDAC,stratifies the risk of ER,and identifies patients at high risk of ER for tailored adjuvant therapies.

Risk factors for recurrence of common bile duct stones after surgical treatment and effect of ursodeoxycholic acid intervention

BACKGROUND Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP)is an accurate diagnostic method for choledocholithiasis and treatment option for stone removal.Additionally,ursodeoxycholic acid(UDCA)can dissolve cholesterol stones and prevent their development and reappearance by lowering the cholesterol concen-tration in bile.Despite these treatment options,there are still patients who experience stone recurrence.The clinical data of 100 patients with choledochal stones who were hospitalized at the Yixing People’s Hospital and underwent ERCP for successful stone extraction between June 2020 and December 2022 were retrospectively collected.According to the post-ERCP treatment plan,100 patients were classified into UDCA(n=47)and control(n=53)groups.We aimed to assess the clinical efficacy and rate of relapse in the two patient populations.We then collected information(basic demographic data,clinical characteristics,and serum biochemical indicators)and determined the factors contributing to relapse using logistic regression analysis.Our secondary goal was to determine the effects of UDCA on liver function after ERCP.Compared to the control group,the UDCA group demonstrated a higher clinical effectiveness rate of 92.45%vs 78.72%(P<0.05).No significant differences were observed in liver function indices,including total bilirubin,direct bilirubin,gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase,alanine aminotransferase,alkaline phosphatase,and aspartate aminotransferase,between the two groups before treatment.After treatment,all liver function indices were significantly reduced.Comparing the control vs UDCA groups,the UDCA group exhibited significantly lower levels of all indices(55.39±6.53 vs 77.31±8.52,32.10±4.62 vs 45.39±5.69,142.32±14.21 vs 189.63±16.87,112.52±14.25 vs 149.36±15.36,122.61±16.00 vs 171.33±22.09,96.98±10.44 vs 121.35±11.57,respectively,all P<0.05).The stone recurrence rate was lower in the UDCA group(13.21%)in contrast with the control group(44.68%).Periampullary diverticula(OR:6.00,95%CI:1.69-21.30),maximum stone diameter(OR:1.69,95%CI:1.01-2.85),stone quantity>3(OR:4.23,95%CI:1.17-15.26),and positive bile culture(OR:7.61,95%CI:2.07-27.91)were independent factors that influenced the relapse of common bile duct stones after ERCP(P<0.05).Furthermore,postoperative UDCA was identified as a preventive factor(OR:0.07;95%CI:0.08-0.09).CONCLUSION The intervention effect of UDCA after ERCP for common bile duct stones is adequate,providing new research directions and references for the prevention and treatment of stone recurrence.