Can a global mean sea-level rise reduce the Last Interglacial model-data mismatch in East Asia?

末次间冰期有着丰富的重建和模拟资料,为研究未来温暖气候提供了一个理想的参考.然而,关于末次间冰期的东亚气候,模拟与重建的结果间长期存在着不匹配的情况,模拟结果普遍较重建结果更为冷干。本研究利用挪威地球系统模式(NorESM1-F),探讨了在末次间冰期模拟试验中纳入全球平均海平面上升能否减少模式-数据的不匹配.该试验结果表明,海平面上升情况下东亚地区会产生一定的增温增湿效应,但不足以消除模式-数据不匹配.基于这些结果,作者探讨了其它可能造成不匹配的因素以供进一步研究.

THE RISE MODEL OF BUOYANT PLUME LIMITED BY MECHANICAL TURBULENCE

This paper has investigated the rise of bent-over buoyant plume in neutral condition. By means of the combined-effect model proposed at earlier time, authors have deduced a formula of final rise limited by mechanical turbulence and therefore have concluded that the corresponding formula neglecting the accumu- lated effect of ambient turbulence is only its particular case. By analyzing the function relation of the various affecting factors with the plume rise in the existing equations, it is proved that the formula derived from the combined-effect model is the most reasonable and shows more conformity to the observations.

A model for predicting bubble rise velocity in a pulsed gas solid fluidized bed

Bed stability, and especially the bed density distribution, is affected by the behavior of bubbles in a gas solid fluidized bed. Bubble rise velocity in a pulsed gas-solid fluidized bed was studied using photographic and computational fluid dynamics methods. The variation in bubble rise velocity was investigated as a function of the periodic pulsed air flow. A predictive model of bubble rise velocity was derived: ub=ψ(Ut+Up-Umf)+kp(gdb)(1/2). The software of Origin was used to fit the empirical coefficients to give ψ = 0.4807 and kp = 0.1305. Experimental verification of the simulations shows that the regular change in bubble rise velocity is accurately described by the model. The correlation coefficient was 0.9905 for the simulations and 0.9706 for the experiments.

Greenland Ice Sheet Contribution to Future Global Sea Level Rise based on CMIP5 Models

Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.

基于温升特性的强迫导向油循环风冷结构变压器负荷能力评估

针对强迫导向油循环风冷(oir directrd air forced,ODAF)结构变压器负荷能力受温升约束影响的问题,提出了3种负荷类型情况下变压器负荷能力评估方法。首先,考虑风扇与油泵的运行状态以及油粘度变化对热阻的影响等因素,基于热电类比法建立了变压器热路模型,以计算绕组热点与顶部油温度;其次,采用粒子群优化(particle swarm optimization,PSO)算法拟合热路模型参数,并基于2台不同型号变压器的运行数据,对热路模型的计算精度与拟合参数适用性进行有效性验证;最后,参考GB/T1094.7负载导则给出的温升限值,基于温升特性提出了负荷能力评估模型。分析结果表明,该研究所提热路模型计算热点温度的误差不大于2.35℃,在工程允许范围内;正常周期性负荷下当环境温度低于1℃时,关闭1组子散热器后仍满足温升约束。

Field measurements for calibration of simplified models of the stiffening effect of infill masonry walls in high-rise RC framed and shear-wall buildings

As a type of nonstructural component, infill walls play a significant role in the seismic behavior of high-rise buildings. However, the stiffness of the infill wall is generally either ignored or considered by simplified empirical criteria that lead to a period shortening. The difference can be greatly decreased by using a structural identification methodology. In this study, an ambient vibration test was performed on four on-site reinforced concrete high-rise buildings, and the design results were compared with the PKPM models using corresponding finite element(FE) models. A diagonal strut model was used to simulate the behavior of the infill wall, and the identified modal parameters measured from the on-site test were employed to calibrate the parameters of the diagonal strut in the FE models. The SAP2000 models with calibrated elastic modulus were used to evaluate the seismic response in the elastic state. Based on the load-displacement relationship of the infill wall, nonlinear dynamic analysis models were built in PERFORM-3 D and calibrated using the measured modal periods. The analysis results revealed that the structural performance under small/large earthquake records were both strengthened by infill walls, and the contribution of infill walls should be considered for better accuracy in the design process.

道路生态滤沟回填黄土毛细持水特性试验研究

市政道路生态滤沟雨季积水渗透、旱季保墒是基本功能,而黄土生态滤沟回填土的设计无据可依,常导致景观植被雨季渍害或旱季枯死。为此,通过对重塑黄土进行小尺寸毛细水上升高度试验、大尺寸持水特性模型试验以及非饱和数值分析研究。结果表明:当干密度分别为1.3 g/cm^(3)、1.4 g/cm^(3)时,土柱的最终毛细水上升高度均可达到100 cm。土柱高度超过20 cm后,其含水率基本保持稳定,稳定含水率分别为30.0%、28.0%;在重塑黄土毛细水上升过程中,存在一个暂态饱和区,其中干密度越小,孔隙比越大,大孔隙数量增多,毛细吸力减弱,导致水分迁移速率较慢,同时被湿桥封闭的大气泡数量也较多,因此暂态饱和区的持续时间较长。对于1.3 g/cm^(3)的土柱,其湿润锋时程曲线的模拟值与实测值基本吻合。综合考虑黄土地层稳定的天然平均干密度、毛细水上升高度及其持水特性以及生态滤沟回填土在后期将经历反复的渗透固结与毛细作用,采用1.2 g/cm^(3)作为回填控制干密度,以确保市政道路生态滤沟中的植土在旱季仍能维持植被生长所需的土壤湿度。

Model Reduction Methods for High-Rise Buildings with Active Mass Damper Control Systems

To improve the performance of an active mass damper control system,the controller should be designed based on a reduced-order model. An improved method based on balanced truncation method was proposed to reduce the dimension of high-rise buildings,and was compared with other widely used reduction methods by using a framework with ten floors. This optimized method has improvement of reduction process and choice of the order. Based on the reduced-order model obtained by the improved method and pole-assignment algorithm,a controller was designed. Finally,a comparative analysis of structural responses,transfer functions,and poles was conducted on an actual high-rise building. The results show the effectiveness of the improved method.

Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models

Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

高层剪力墙结构多目标智能设计方法

高层剪力墙结构智能设计包括智能建模和智能优化两个环节。目前智能建模环节缺乏梁自动化布置和荷载自动化布置;智能优化环节只考虑材料成本而未考虑施工的便捷性。此外,现有的智能设计方法均局限于单标准层的高层剪力墙结构。为此,该文提出了高层剪力墙结构多目标智能设计方法,包括多标准层高层剪力墙结构的智能建模和多目标优化。多标准层高层剪力墙结构智能建模包含剪力墙智能布置、梁自动化布置、板自动化布置和荷载自动化布置;以材料成本和施工便捷性为目标,采用分步优化策略和基于小生境技术的遗传算法对高层剪力墙结构进行多目标优化。通过实际工程算例对所提出的方法进行了验证,结果表明,所提出的高层剪力墙结构多目标智能设计方法稳定、可靠,可以较好地兼顾材料成本和施工的便捷性,并能显著缩短设计周期。

某高层剪力墙结构不均匀沉降分析及处理

无新增荷载情况下的持续不均匀沉降常常发生在地基有缺陷的高层建筑中,该类沉降产生的破坏是缓慢持续的。地基不均匀沉降会导致建筑物开裂、倾斜,进一步发生结构安全事故。依据某高层剪力墙结构以及不均匀沉降监测数据,采用ABAQUS建立该高层剪力墙结构三维有限元计算模型,分析不均匀沉降工况下上部结构的内力分布及整体变形发展规律。结果显示,有限元计算得到的模型内力增大位置与实际外墙主要开裂位置相吻合,整体沉降变形发展规律与现场实测数据基本一致,证明上部结构三维有限元模型的可行性。进一步建立剪力墙结构-桩筏基础-地基耦合计算模型,开展不同筏板厚度对整体结构不均匀沉降的影响分析。同时结合实际案例制定“增设筏板+补桩”处理方法,加固完成后监测数据显示房屋处于稳定状态,变形与裂缝均无发展。

育种科研项目绩效评价创新研究:RISE模型构建及实证检验

本文构建了合理性(Rationality)、包容性(Inclusiveness)、显著性(Significance)、高效性(Efficiency)RISE绩效评价模型及以及"定性定量兼顾、线性非线性交叉"方法体系,并以"十二五"育种攻关为例进行了实证检验。该模型探索解决了现有绩效评价模型不能契合科研项目特点、不能满足对政府进行绩效评价需要、不能满足非线性绩效评价要求、不能体现育种科研项目个性等问题。

马铃薯发育期模型精度及其对升温的敏感性比较

马铃薯是世界第四大主粮作物,马铃薯发育期的准确模拟是评估气候变化对马铃薯生长发育影响的基础。通过研究筛选在全国马铃薯种植区发育期模拟效果最优的模型,并基于模型探究历史气候变化对马铃薯生育期的影响差异以及模型对升温(1~5℃)的敏感性,可为模型改进提供方向。针对当前对覆盖不同气候和品种类型的发育期模型综合对比研究较少,本研究选取3种温度响应函数与2种日长响应函数,组合形成3种温度模型和6种光温模型,运用模拟退火算法对模型进行调参,对比其在全国8个站点模拟马铃薯全生育期的精度,结果表明:1)线性温度函数+负指数日长函数光温模型(M3)、Logistic温度函数+负指数日长函数光温模型(M6)和Beta温度函数+负指数日长函数光温模型(M9)的模拟效果最优, 3个模型模拟和观测的全生育期长度RMSE分别为7.7 d、6.8 d和7.1 d, R^(2)均大于0.90。2)基于最优模型在4个代表性站点的模拟结果显示,历史气候变化导致马铃薯生育期总体呈缩短趋势,但在不同站点模型间存在差异。3)升温1~5℃,模型M3和M6模拟的马铃薯全生育期日数呈线性缩短,每升温1℃, 4个站点的生育期缩短3.0~8.2 d;而模型M9模拟的全生育期日数呈非线性变化,随温度升高生育期缩短趋势先增加后减小。筛选出的3种光温模型均可有效模拟马铃薯发育期;基于3种模型模拟的历史气候变化总体均使马铃薯生育期缩短,但变化率不同;温度响应函数的不同,使得3种模型对升温的敏感性不同,且模型间差异随着升温而增加。研究结果为马铃薯发育期模型选择和改进提供了重要参考。

A Model for Temperature Infl uence on Concrete Hydration Exothermic Rate (Part one: Theory and Experiment)

Recent achievements in concrete hydration exothermic models based on Arrhenius equation have improved computation accuracy for mass concrete temperature field. But the properties of the activation energy and the gas constant （Ea/R） have not been well studied yet. From the latest experiments it is shown that Ea/R obviously changes with the hydration degree without fixed form. In this paper, the relationship between hydration degree and Ea/R is studied and a new hydration exothermic model is proposed. With those achievements, the mass concrete temperature field with arbitrary boundary condition can be calculated more precisely.

PBL与RISE教学法在医学免疫学教学实践中的探讨

目的:通过对PBL、RISE和LBL教学效果比较,研究对本科生免疫学学习的更有效的教学法。方法:将实验对象分为PBL、RISE和LBL组,分别实施相应教学方式,并对教学效果进行考核和评估。结果:PBL和RISE教学法期末考核明显优于传统教学法,而在提高创新性方面RISE教学方式明显强于PBL组。结论:PBL和RISE教学法的教学效果优于传统教学法,提高了学生的学习积极性和综合能力。

复杂环境地埋电缆群暂态温升热路模型适应性仿真验证研究

简易可行、快速准确地评估电缆实时温升,是释放潜在输送能力,提高运行效率的基础。目前,评估电缆线芯温升的方法主要有测量方法与计算方法,借鉴热电比拟的方法,提出了引入平衡热阻与平衡热感的电缆群暂态温升热路模型。然而实际运行中,电缆的运行环境更为复杂,电缆回数多少、负荷波动程度等因素也可能影响模型的准确性。为充分验证热路模型的适应性,文中通过构建一个复杂环境、工况条件下的电缆群暂态温升有限元算例,并与热路模型结果进行比较。验证结果表明,针对不同影响因素,原有热路模型可进行灵活调整扩展,参数求解方法不变,模型的便捷性与准确性不受影响;电缆回数数量、介质均匀性、负荷波动程度、日照与环温变化幅度均不明显降低模型的准确性。研究成果不仅验证了模型的适应性,而且可为类似模型的检验方法提供重要参考。

配电变压器强波动负荷动态热点温度计算模型

配电变压器是居民、工业配电系统的核心设备,准确获取运行时变压器的动态温度对其安全运行至关重要,尤其是在工厂大型设备频繁启停的波动负荷下。文中提出了一种基于改进遗传编程算法的配电变压器动态热点温度计算方法,并搭建了配电变压器热点温度实验平台,以获得的实验数据作为训练集和预测集。研究结果表明,所提计算方法相较于传统遗传编程算法可以更高效地获得最优个体,预测结果和实测结果的最大误差仅为1.44 K,为配电变压器智能运维和温度监测无传感器化提供了新的技术手段。

RISE教学模式在《温病学》教学中的应用

"以文献为导向的自我学习"是一种以提高学生主动学习的能力以及加强学生科研能力为主要目的的教学模式。通过对RISE教学模式在温病学教学中的应用,旨在探索RISE教学模式在温病学教学改革中的教学效果。

涂层传热性能对母线散热能力影响分析

为提升电力开关柜散热性能、提高供配电稳定性,本文依据传热学基础理论对电力开关柜传热过程进行分析,采用溶液共混法成功制备了适用于电力开关柜母线散热的涂层材料,并基于电磁-热-流多物理场耦合原理构建了电力开关柜涂层-热分析模型,结合母线负载电流计算理论,从涂层热导率、发射率等方面对涂覆散热涂层前后的电力开关柜传热特性进行分析。结果表明:涂层热导率相比于涂层发射率对母线温升影响较小,母线表面涂覆涂层之后,B相母线表面发射率由0.2增大到0.846时,三相母线最大负载电流与未涂覆相比提升18.75%。

考虑非线性行为相似的高层结构动力试验模型简化设计方法研究

随着物理试验技术的快速发展,结构模型试验可较准确获得结构在环境荷载作用下的动力响应,但在土-结相互作用、区域群体结构、大型复杂结构的风洞、拟静力及动力等模型试验问题研究中,简单、实用、准确的结构试验简化模型仍是研究的重点。针对现有模型简化方法中非线性力学参数标定复杂、试验可行性不足等问题,提出了一种考虑非线性行为相似的高层结构动力试验模型简化设计方法,将模拟高层结构的弯、剪恢复力模型分解为线性和非线性行为的组合,其中结构非线性行为采用库仑摩擦模型模拟,因其参数简单,具有一定物理意义,可直接适用于缩尺模型动力试验研究中。基于上述理论方法,将弯剪耦合模型和平扭摩擦装置有效结合,提出了用于缩尺动力试验的物理模型设计方法及等效刚度、屈服后刚度和承载力等参数的计算方法,并建立了对应的“层间双剪切、双弯曲弹簧”力学计算模型,可通过模型试验结果较好地预测原型结构弹性及非线性阶段的动力响应。以某高层结构为例,通过数值模拟和振动台试验验证了该方法的准确性和可行性。