Statistical biases may be introduced by imprecisely quantifying background radiation reference levels. It is, therefore, imperative to devise a simple, adaptable approach for precisely describing the reference backgro...Statistical biases may be introduced by imprecisely quantifying background radiation reference levels. It is, therefore, imperative to devise a simple, adaptable approach for precisely describing the reference background levels of naturally occurring radionuclides (NOR) in mining sites. As a substitute statistical method, we suggest using Bayesian modeling in this work to examine the spatial distribution of NOR. For naturally occurring gamma-induced radionuclides like 232Th, 40K, and 238U, statistical parameters are inferred using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. After obtaining an accurate subsample using bootstrapping, we exclude any possible outliers that fall outside of the Highest Density Interval (HDI). We use MCMC to build a Bayesian model with the resampled data and make predictions about the posterior distribution of radionuclides produced by gamma irradiation. This method offers a strong and dependable way to describe NOR reference background values, which is important for managing and evaluating radiation risks in mining contexts.展开更多
通过对我国西南地区3个洞穴9根大型石笋272个初始234U/238U数据的分析研究,发现石笋初始234U/238U值长尺度变化与海洋沉积SPECMAP曲线δ18O记录有一定的正相关关系,与北纬25°夏季太阳辐射能量变化曲线呈一定的负相关关系,石笋初始2...通过对我国西南地区3个洞穴9根大型石笋272个初始234U/238U数据的分析研究,发现石笋初始234U/238U值长尺度变化与海洋沉积SPECMAP曲线δ18O记录有一定的正相关关系,与北纬25°夏季太阳辐射能量变化曲线呈一定的负相关关系,石笋初始234U/238U值的变化在冰期时波动强烈,而在间冰期波动相对平缓,在间冰期和冰期(间冰阶和冰阶)转化阶段该值呈跳跃状态变化。末次冰期及全新世阶段石笋初始234U/238U变化记录了该时段内的BA暖期和YD突变冷事件;全新世8200 a BP、7200 a BP、5200 a BP、4200 a BP、2800 a BP、1400 a BP发生的几次较强冷事件在石笋初始234U/238U值都有相应记录,并且和长尺度的变化规律一致,冷事件发生时石笋初始234U/238U值偏重,暖期偏轻。封闭系统形成的洞穴石笋初始234U/238U变化类似于同地区洞穴石笋的δ18O对气候变化的记录特征,在我国西南地区两者与夏季风变化的强弱呈现一种负相关的关系,洞穴石笋初始234U/238U值可以作为一个有用的古气候替代指标来研究古降水的变化。展开更多
文摘Statistical biases may be introduced by imprecisely quantifying background radiation reference levels. It is, therefore, imperative to devise a simple, adaptable approach for precisely describing the reference background levels of naturally occurring radionuclides (NOR) in mining sites. As a substitute statistical method, we suggest using Bayesian modeling in this work to examine the spatial distribution of NOR. For naturally occurring gamma-induced radionuclides like 232Th, 40K, and 238U, statistical parameters are inferred using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. After obtaining an accurate subsample using bootstrapping, we exclude any possible outliers that fall outside of the Highest Density Interval (HDI). We use MCMC to build a Bayesian model with the resampled data and make predictions about the posterior distribution of radionuclides produced by gamma irradiation. This method offers a strong and dependable way to describe NOR reference background values, which is important for managing and evaluating radiation risks in mining contexts.
文摘通过对我国西南地区3个洞穴9根大型石笋272个初始234U/238U数据的分析研究,发现石笋初始234U/238U值长尺度变化与海洋沉积SPECMAP曲线δ18O记录有一定的正相关关系,与北纬25°夏季太阳辐射能量变化曲线呈一定的负相关关系,石笋初始234U/238U值的变化在冰期时波动强烈,而在间冰期波动相对平缓,在间冰期和冰期(间冰阶和冰阶)转化阶段该值呈跳跃状态变化。末次冰期及全新世阶段石笋初始234U/238U变化记录了该时段内的BA暖期和YD突变冷事件;全新世8200 a BP、7200 a BP、5200 a BP、4200 a BP、2800 a BP、1400 a BP发生的几次较强冷事件在石笋初始234U/238U值都有相应记录,并且和长尺度的变化规律一致,冷事件发生时石笋初始234U/238U值偏重,暖期偏轻。封闭系统形成的洞穴石笋初始234U/238U变化类似于同地区洞穴石笋的δ18O对气候变化的记录特征,在我国西南地区两者与夏季风变化的强弱呈现一种负相关的关系,洞穴石笋初始234U/238U值可以作为一个有用的古气候替代指标来研究古降水的变化。
