The Relationship between Extreme Precipitation Events in East Africa during the Short Rainy Season and Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature

The East African short rainy season (October-November-December) is one of the major flood seasons in the East African region. The amount of rainfall during the short rainy season is closely related to the lives of the people and the socio-economic development of the area. By using precipitation data and sea surface temperature data, this study reveals the spatial and temporal variation patterns of extreme precipitation during the East African short rainy season. Key findings include significant rainfall variability, with Tanzania experiencing the highest amounts in December due to the southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), while other regions receive less than 100 mm. Extreme rainfall events (90th percentiles) are evenly distributed, averaging 2 to 10 days annually. Historical data shows maximum seasonal rainfall often peaks at 15 mm, with frequent occurrences of daily rainfall exceeding 10 mm during OND. Additionally, a positive correlation (0.48) between OND precipitation extremes and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) anomalies is statistically significant. These findings highlight the climatic variability and potential trends in extreme rainfall events in East Africa, providing valuable insights for regional climate adaptation strategies.

Effect of ventilation on thermal and humidity environment of the underground utility tunnel in the plum rain season in southern China:Field measurement and CFD simulation

The underground utility tunnel(UUT)is one of the typical urban underground structures,which usually requires mechanical ventilation systems for forced ventilation.In addition to the ventilation scheme for accident scenarios,the normal operating ventilation scheme deserves equal attention as it has a great impact on the air quality as well as the thermal and humidity environment inside the UUT.In this study,a UUT located in southern China is taken as the research object,and the effect of ventilation on its internal thermal and humidity distribution is explored with a combined use of field measurements and numerical simulations.The results of field measurements show that the average temperature inside the closed UUT is 20.5℃and the average humidity ratio is 14.1 g/kgdry;both are lower than those of the external environment.In the plum rain season,if the tunnel is ventilated without any treatment of the external airflows,surface condensation tends to occur near the air inlet while the region with high relative humidity would be distributed on both sides far from the air inlet.The study also discusses the effect of different temperatures and humidity ratios of the inflow air on the humidity inside the UUT,and on this basis,the humidity control strategy for UUT in the plum rain season is proposed.

THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT PHYSICAL PROCESSES AND THEIR PARAMETERIZATIONS ON FORECAST OF A HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTH CHINA IN ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON

An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.

Fluxes of CH4 and N_2O from soil under a tropical seasonal rain forest in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China

CH4 and N2O fluxes from soil under a tropical seasonal rain forest in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China were measured for one year using closed static chamber technique and gas chromatography method. Three treatments were set in the studied field： （A） litter-free, （B） with litter, and （C） with litter and seedling. The results showed that the soil in our study was a sink of atmospheric CH4 and source of atmospheric N2O. The observed mean CH4 fluxes from treatments A, B, and C were -50.0 ± 4.0, -35.9 ± 2.8, -31.6 ± 2.8 μgC/（m^2·h）, respectively, and calculated annual fluxes in 2003 were -4.1, -3.1, and -2.9 kgC/hm^2, respectively. The observed mean N2O fluxes from treatments A, B, and C were 30.9 ± 3.1, 28.2 ± 3.5, 50.2±3.7 μgN/（m^2·h）, respectively, and calculated annual fluxes in 2003 were 2.8, 2.6, and 3.7 kgN/hm^2, respectively. Seasonal variations in CH4 and N2O fluxes were significant among all the three treatments. The presence of litter decreased CH4 uptake during wet season （P 〈 0.05）, but not during dry season. There was a similar increase in seedlings-mediated N2O emissions during wet and dry seasons, indicating that seedlings increased N2O emission in both seasons. A strong positive relationship existed between CH4 fluxes and soil moisture for all the three treatments, and weak relationship between CH4 fluxes and soil temperature for treatment B and treatment C. The N2O fluxes correlated with soil temperature for all the three treatments.

STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE FROM GMS-5 INFRARED CLOUD IMAGERY AND SURFACE RAIN RATES DURING THE RAINING SEASONS OF FUJIAN PROVINCE

The GMS-5 infrared cloud imagery for two yearly first raining seasons in 1998 and 1999 are used to study the relationship between brightness temperature and surface rain rates. The result shows that it is likely to have large probability of heavy precipitation with the decrease of brightness temperature and the gradual increase of rainfall intensity; for areas of low temperature, the brightness temperature is better determined for atmosphere above rain gauge stations with multiple points sampling than with single point one; for the yearly first raining season, the threshold brightness temperature is set at 4.6℃ for indication of heavy precipitation in the Fujian area.

Variation in photosynthetic photon flux density within a tropical seasonal rain forest of Xishuangbanna, south-western China

The effects of canopy development, solar angle, and weather conditions on temporal variation in photosynthetic photon flux density（PPFD） at three heights within a tropical rain forest canopy in Xishuangbanna, China, were examined. PPFD was measured every second and stored as 10-min averages from 1 December 2002 to 30 November 2003. PPFD variability was examined at three different temporal scales. Specific days in March, September, and December with clear and overcast sky conditions were selected to separate the effects of leaf area index（LAI） and solar angle on diurnal variability. On both clear and overcast days, mean daily average PPFD was significantly different between March and September at all heights, except 10 m on clear days, suggesting that LAI directly influences PPFD. In contrast, the differences in daily average PPFD among three heights between September and December were likely due to variation in solar angle. In addition, daily average PPFD at all locations were significantly lower under overcast than clear sky conditions in March, September and December. Over the year-long study, the mean daily total PPFD at 2! m, 10 m and 4 m was 2.8, 2.7 and 0.7 mol/（m^2·d）, which accounted for 9.7%, 9.4% and 2.4% of the daily PPFD above the canopy, respectively. Significant differences in mean daily total PPFD occurred at the same heights among different seasons, and diurnal, day-to-day and seasonal PPFD varied at different heights within the canopy. The possible effects of light variability on physiological and morphological responses of plants are discussed.

ANALYSES OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION CHARACTERISTICS OF FLOOD-CAUSING RAINSTORMS IN XIJIANG RIVER VALLEY DURING THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON IN THE PAST YEARS

Based on the daily precipitation data of nine stations representing the Xijiang River valley and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) reanalysis data, this study uses the wavelet analysis and band-pass filter methods to investigate the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation characteristics of flood-causing rainstorms in the valley during the annually first raining seasons in 1968, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2005. Results show that the daily precipitation in the valley exhibits significant quasi-biweekly (10 to 20 days) oscillations. The flood-causing rainstorms in the valley were mainly associated with the confluence of low-frequency warm and humid airflow in the lower latitudes and cold and dry airflow in the higher latitudes. The low-frequency vortexes were propagating or in control when this type of rainstorms took place over the valley, being favorable for the convergence of moisture at lower levels and thus vital to the formation of the rainstorms.

ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN THE FIRST RAINING SEASON (APRIL-JUNE) IN SOUTHERN CHINA AND SST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS IN CHINA

Precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China were analyzed,with the suggestion that there are obvious interannual variation of peak values.In the raining season,the general tendency of precipitation is not obvious and the anomalous oscillation is multi-scale.Corresponding to years of more or less precipitation in the raining season,there are sharply opposite distribution across the nation in the simultaneous periods.In addition,by studying the distribution of correlation between anomalous precipitation in southern China in the first raining season and SSTA over offshore waters of China in the preceding period (June ～August of the previous year),a sensitive zone of waters has been found that has steady effect on the precipitation of southern China in the season.Discussions are also made of the sensitive period,its simultaneous SSTA and subsequent anomalous circulation field in relation to precipitation anomalies and simultaneous circulation field in the first raining season of southern China.In the last part of the work,relationship between the SSTA in the sensitive zone and global SSTA is analyzed.A possible mechanism by which SSTA in offshore Chinese waters affects the precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China is put forward.

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSIONS OF BASIC CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECIPITATION DURING RAINING SEASONS IN REGIONS SOUTH OF CHANGJIANG RIVER AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH SST ANOMALIES

Basic climatic characteristics are analyzed concerning the precipitation anomalies in raining seasons over regions south of the Changjiang River (the Yangtze). It finds that the regions are the earliest in eastern China where raining seasons begin and end. Precipitation there tends to decrease over the past 50 years. Waters bounded by 9(S -1(S, 121(E - 129(E are the key zones of SST anomalies that affect the precipitation in these regions over May ~ July in preceding years. Long-term air-sea interactions make it possible for preceding SST anomalies to affect the general circulation that come afterwards, causing precipitation anomalies in the raining seasons in regions south of the Changjiang River in subsequent years.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOUTH CHINA SEA SOUTHWEST MONSOON ANOMALIES AND IMPORTANT WEATHER IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE DURING THE RAINING SEASONS

The activity of South China Sea southwest monsoon (SCSSM) has direct impacts on the anomalies of important weather in Guangdong province during the raining seasons. So it is necessary to explore thoroughly the activity pattern of SCSSM and its relationship with important weather anomalies in the province. In this paper, the methods of composite analysis and correlation statistics are used to study the relationship between the onset date and intensity of SCSSM and the important weather, such as precipitation trends in Guangdong province during the annually first and second raining seasons, the timing of the annually first and last typhoon and the number of typhoons landing in Guangdong province. The results show that the rainfall is less than normal during the first raining season, but more than normal during the second one and there are more tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong province in the years of early SCSSM onset. The rainfall is more than normal during the second raining season and there are more tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong province in the years of strong SCSSM. The relationship between the SST of April - June, July - September and previous winter (December - February) and 500 hPa geopotential height and the onset date and intensity of SCSSM is analyzed. Some mechanisms between the onset dates and intensity of SCSSM and the important weather anomalies in Guangdong province are preliminarily explored. The results can be used for reference in short-term climate forecast.

ON STRONG SIGNALS OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN EARLY RAINING SEASON OF GUANGDONG AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF PREDICTION

Reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR are used to systematically study preceding signals of monthly precipitation anomalies in the early raining season of Guangdong province, from the viewpoints of 500-hPa geopotential height field, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) field, sea surface temperature (SST) and fourteen indexes of general circulation depicting atmosphere activity at high, middle and low latitutes. Being multiple tools of information, a number of conceptual models are formulated that are useful for prediction of the magnitude of monthly precipitation (drought, flood and normal conditionss).

IMPACT OF SSTA OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ON FLOOD SEASON PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN YUNNAN

Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean global SST and wind from the NCEP/NCAR and the observation data of rain seasons in 124 stations of Yunnan province from 1961 to 2006, we applied the analytical methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis and a significance testing method to two sets of samples of average differences. The goal is to investigate into the influence of the Southern Hemispheric(SH) SST on the summer precipitation in Yunnan from January to May so as to identify the key time and marine regions. Physical mechanisms are obtained by analyzing the influence of sea level wind and the key marine regions on the precipitation during Yunnan's rain season.Results show that there is indeed significant relationship between the SST in SH and summer precipitation in Yunnan.The key areas for influencing the summer precipitation are mainly distributed in a region called "West Wind Drift" in the SH, including the Southeast Indian, southern Australia, west coast of eastern Pacific off Chile, Peru and the southwest Atlantic Magellan. Besides, the most significant marine region is the west coast of Chile and Peru(cold-current areas of the eastern Pacific). Diagnostic analysis results also showed that monsoons in the Bay of Bengal, a cross-equatorial flow in the Indian Ocean near the equator and southwest monsoon in India weaken during the warm phase of the Peruvian cold current in the eastern Pacific. Otherwise, they strengthen.

Simulation and Projection of Monso on Rainfall and Rain Patterns over Eastern China under Global Warming by RegCM3

The authors investigate possible changes of monsoon rainfall and associated seasonal (June-JulyAugust) anomaly patterns over eastern China in the late 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) nested in a general circulation model (FvGCM/CCM3).Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate conditions.Results show that the RegCM3 reproduces the mean rainfall distribution;however the evolution of the monsoon rain belt from South China to North China is not well simulated.Concerning the rain pattern classifications,RegCM3 overestimates the occurrence of Pattern 1 (excessive rainfall in northern China) and underestimates that of Pattern 2 (increased rainfall over the Huai River basin).Under future climate conditions,RegCM3 projects less occurrence of Pattern 1,more of Pattern 2,and little change of Pattern 3 (rainfall increase along the Yangtze River).These results indicate that there might be increased rainfall over the Huai-Yellow River area and reduced rainfall over North China in the future,while rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin is not modified significantly.Uncertainties exist in the present study are also discussed.

天目山常绿落叶阔叶混交林种子雨特征及其与群落组成的关系

林木种子是森林更新的重要物质基础,其数量多少与组成会对群落动态和生态系统的结构与功能产生深刻影响。为了更好的了解天目山常绿落叶阔叶混交林动态变化,利用种子收集器对天目山常绿落叶阔叶混交林种子雨进行了一年定位监测,分析了种子雨物种组成、季节动态、空间动态、种子性状以及种子雨与群落树种空间关系。结果表明:(1)天目山常绿落叶阔叶混交林种子雨密度为921.33粒m^(-2) a^(-1),一年中每月都能收集到一定数量种子,月平均种子雨密度为76.78粒/m^(2),种子雨密度最大高峰是在10月份,达到263.78粒/m^(2),种子雨散布具有很大的空间变异,群落种子雨空间分布格局呈聚集分布。(2)一年中共收集到30个物种的种子,单粒种子平均重量为0.065 g,其中小叶青冈重量最大为0.405 g,最小的为柳杉重量为0.003 g,不同散布方式和不同果实类型的物种种子重量差异显著,在散布方式中重力散布的种子重量最大,在果实类型中坚果的种子重量最大。(3)植物群落物种对种子雨组成,特别是优势种的物种丰富度有很大贡献,种子不同的散布方式会影响种子雨与母树组成的相似性,风力散布的相似系数的最高值(R_(max))和距种子雨收集器的距离(d)均最大(风力散布:R_(max)=0.212,d=8 m;动物散布:R_(max)=0.143,d=6 m;重力散布:R_(max)=0.100,d=7 m),种子雨密度与周围母树数量在一定范围内呈显著正相关。综上,天目山常绿落叶阔叶混交林种子物种种类丰富,种子雨具有明显的季节动态和空间变异,符合亚热带常绿落叶阔叶混交林种子雨时空动态的典型特征,通过风力散布的种子在远距离传播上有更大的优势。

2023年麦收期河南省连阴雨的气候特征和可能成因

2023年麦收期河南省出现了罕见的连阴雨天气,降水和阴雨日数异常偏多,分别为自1961年以来的历史第五位和第二位。分析连阴雨的可能气候成因,主要结论如下:(1)造成连阴雨的环流形势为欧亚中高纬度西高东低,乌拉尔山高压脊持续发展并出现阶段性阻塞,东北冷涡活跃,冷空气能持续南下,西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)偏北、偏强且异常偏西,来自副高西北侧边缘的暖湿气流和冷空气在河南省交汇。(2)副高偏强、偏北、偏西是由偏强、偏北、偏大、偏东的南亚高压和偏强、偏北的东亚副热带西风急流(以下简称西风急流)的引导所致,而东南亚对流层中高层的暖中心偏大、偏北和偏东且呈东西向带状分布,使南亚高压形成了上述的特征。暖中心和东北冷涡的共同作用,使东亚中高层的气温梯度增大,进而加强了西风急流。(3)2023年前期的La Ni1a事件有利于麦收期副高偏北,但不利于副高偏强和明显偏西。麦收期由于台风扰动由泰国湾至菲律宾群岛以东的热带西太平洋对流活跃释放的凝结潜热较多,以及麦收期前期的春季和麦收期伊朗高原至青藏高原的地面感热和潜热较强,使暖中心形成了上述的特征,进而决定了南亚高压和副高的特征。(4)2023年麦收期北大西洋海温偏高,以及北大西洋三极子为负位相,导致了乌拉尔山高压脊持续发展并出现阶段性阻塞,麦收期前期的春季和麦收期伏尔加河至贝加尔湖西北侧地面感热和潜热偏强,而下游贝加尔湖东南侧至鄂霍次克海地面感热和潜热偏弱一定程度上导致上述两区域分别出现了大范围的位势高度正距平和负距平。

中国昼夜降水特征的空间分异规律

降水昼夜分配的时空特征,是干旱半干旱地区降水资源有效性的重要影响因素。我国昼夜降水空间分异复杂,在雨强、高程、季相等方面的规律还有待进一步研究。为此,采用空间分区、高程分带、雨强分级、季相对比等方法,基于全国839个气象站点1951~2019年的降水资料,研究了我国昼夜降水特征的空间分异规律。结果表明,在空间分区上,我国可划分为受夜间冷却和山谷风效应的青藏及周边夜雨典型区、受辐射对流效应的秦-淮以南昼雨典型区、秦-淮以北降水昼夜相对均衡区;在垂直分异方面,青藏高原及周边山地最为明显,年夜间降水量的高程递减率大于昼间,昼夜差异随海拔升高而减弱;降水的雨强特征为中高雨强降水比重大,尤其是青藏东缘中高强度夜雨显著;季相规律为青藏及西南地区月降水均为夜雨大于昼雨,而南方4~10月昼雨典型。我国昼夜降水特征的空间分异规律,可作为农业与生态水资源气候评估的参考,对山洪预警也有重要意义。

中国汛期雨带的客观划分及其相关环流特征

本文利用1961—2016年中国汛期逐候降水的旋转经验正交函数分解(Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function,REOF)方法对中国汛期雨带进行客观划分。根据REOF模态空间分布以及主成分的气候态平均确定了中国汛期6个主要雨带的落区和时间,并揭示了各雨带气候态环流特征。江南春雨雨带主要发生在长江以南地区,对应时间为26—27候;南方雨季的雨带落区主要在两广至福建地区,对应时间为33—34候;江南及中下游梅雨主要落区在长江以南和长江中下游流域,对应时间分别为34—35和36—37候;华北东北雨季落区在华北至东北地区,发生时间为41—42候;华西秋雨落区在秦岭及其周围地区,对应发生时间为49—52候。在雨带划分的基础上,进一步揭示了各个雨带典型的对流层中高低气候态环流特征。可为客观定义汛期雨带及各雨带气候预测提供参考。

一起10 kV线路连续故障分析及供电可靠性提升措施探讨

梅雨季潮湿天气使沿海地区变电站的安全运行受到一定威胁,而且2座变电站共计7条10 kV线路连续出现故障实属罕见。因此,开展对此次故障线路的事故分析,对于沿海地区供电企业重新审视配电网的潜在威胁并针对性制定供电可靠性提升措施具有重要的现实意义。

南方梅雨季节新会陈皮贮藏技术探究

新会陈皮是广东新会地区的知名药食同源道地药材,在南方阴雨连绵,湿气弥漫的梅雨潮湿季节,贮藏方式会影响其药食品质。本文探讨了新会陈皮在南方梅雨潮湿季节常见的贮藏方式,以供参考。

华南前汛期的锋面降水和夏季风降水 I.划分日期的确定

前汛期暴雨常常引发华南地区的洪涝，但是前汛期降水的预报能力却相当低。降水的预报在很大程度上依赖于对降水性质的理解，而华南前汛期降水通常被认为只是锋面性质的降水。事实上，南海夏季风在6月（甚至5月）就可以影响到华南地区并产生季风对流降水。因此，华南前汛期包含了两种不同性质的降水，即锋面降水和夏季风降水，如何区分它们是非常重要的。为了区分它们，利用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料、CMAP资料和中国730站降水资料，分析气候平均（1971-2000年）状态下锋面降水和季风降水期间大气性质和特征的差异，得到华南前汛期夏季风降水开始的基本判据：100hPa纬向风由西风转为东风并维持5天以上。利用该判据得出气候平均条件下的华南夏季风降水开始于5月24日，并得到1951-2004年逐年华南前汛期锋面降水和季风降水的划分日期。合成分析的结果表明，得到的划分日期是基本合理的，因为它将锋面降水和季风降水期间大气特点的显著差别区分开来。