THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT PHYSICAL PROCESSES AND THEIR PARAMETERIZATIONS ON FORECAST OF A HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTH CHINA IN ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON

An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.

STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE FROM GMS-5 INFRARED CLOUD IMAGERY AND SURFACE RAIN RATES DURING THE RAINING SEASONS OF FUJIAN PROVINCE

The GMS-5 infrared cloud imagery for two yearly first raining seasons in 1998 and 1999 are used to study the relationship between brightness temperature and surface rain rates. The result shows that it is likely to have large probability of heavy precipitation with the decrease of brightness temperature and the gradual increase of rainfall intensity; for areas of low temperature, the brightness temperature is better determined for atmosphere above rain gauge stations with multiple points sampling than with single point one; for the yearly first raining season, the threshold brightness temperature is set at 4.6℃ for indication of heavy precipitation in the Fujian area.

ANALYSES OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION CHARACTERISTICS OF FLOOD-CAUSING RAINSTORMS IN XIJIANG RIVER VALLEY DURING THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON IN THE PAST YEARS

Based on the daily precipitation data of nine stations representing the Xijiang River valley and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) reanalysis data, this study uses the wavelet analysis and band-pass filter methods to investigate the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation characteristics of flood-causing rainstorms in the valley during the annually first raining seasons in 1968, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2005. Results show that the daily precipitation in the valley exhibits significant quasi-biweekly (10 to 20 days) oscillations. The flood-causing rainstorms in the valley were mainly associated with the confluence of low-frequency warm and humid airflow in the lower latitudes and cold and dry airflow in the higher latitudes. The low-frequency vortexes were propagating or in control when this type of rainstorms took place over the valley, being favorable for the convergence of moisture at lower levels and thus vital to the formation of the rainstorms.

ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN THE FIRST RAINING SEASON (APRIL-JUNE) IN SOUTHERN CHINA AND SST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS IN CHINA

Precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China were analyzed,with the suggestion that there are obvious interannual variation of peak values.In the raining season,the general tendency of precipitation is not obvious and the anomalous oscillation is multi-scale.Corresponding to years of more or less precipitation in the raining season,there are sharply opposite distribution across the nation in the simultaneous periods.In addition,by studying the distribution of correlation between anomalous precipitation in southern China in the first raining season and SSTA over offshore waters of China in the preceding period (June ～August of the previous year),a sensitive zone of waters has been found that has steady effect on the precipitation of southern China in the season.Discussions are also made of the sensitive period,its simultaneous SSTA and subsequent anomalous circulation field in relation to precipitation anomalies and simultaneous circulation field in the first raining season of southern China.In the last part of the work,relationship between the SSTA in the sensitive zone and global SSTA is analyzed.A possible mechanism by which SSTA in offshore Chinese waters affects the precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China is put forward.

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSIONS OF BASIC CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECIPITATION DURING RAINING SEASONS IN REGIONS SOUTH OF CHANGJIANG RIVER AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH SST ANOMALIES

Basic climatic characteristics are analyzed concerning the precipitation anomalies in raining seasons over regions south of the Changjiang River (the Yangtze). It finds that the regions are the earliest in eastern China where raining seasons begin and end. Precipitation there tends to decrease over the past 50 years. Waters bounded by 9(S -1(S, 121(E - 129(E are the key zones of SST anomalies that affect the precipitation in these regions over May ~ July in preceding years. Long-term air-sea interactions make it possible for preceding SST anomalies to affect the general circulation that come afterwards, causing precipitation anomalies in the raining seasons in regions south of the Changjiang River in subsequent years.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOUTH CHINA SEA SOUTHWEST MONSOON ANOMALIES AND IMPORTANT WEATHER IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE DURING THE RAINING SEASONS

The activity of South China Sea southwest monsoon (SCSSM) has direct impacts on the anomalies of important weather in Guangdong province during the raining seasons. So it is necessary to explore thoroughly the activity pattern of SCSSM and its relationship with important weather anomalies in the province. In this paper, the methods of composite analysis and correlation statistics are used to study the relationship between the onset date and intensity of SCSSM and the important weather, such as precipitation trends in Guangdong province during the annually first and second raining seasons, the timing of the annually first and last typhoon and the number of typhoons landing in Guangdong province. The results show that the rainfall is less than normal during the first raining season, but more than normal during the second one and there are more tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong province in the years of early SCSSM onset. The rainfall is more than normal during the second raining season and there are more tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong province in the years of strong SCSSM. The relationship between the SST of April - June, July - September and previous winter (December - February) and 500 hPa geopotential height and the onset date and intensity of SCSSM is analyzed. Some mechanisms between the onset dates and intensity of SCSSM and the important weather anomalies in Guangdong province are preliminarily explored. The results can be used for reference in short-term climate forecast.

ON STRONG SIGNALS OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN EARLY RAINING SEASON OF GUANGDONG AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF PREDICTION

Reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR are used to systematically study preceding signals of monthly precipitation anomalies in the early raining season of Guangdong province, from the viewpoints of 500-hPa geopotential height field, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) field, sea surface temperature (SST) and fourteen indexes of general circulation depicting atmosphere activity at high, middle and low latitutes. Being multiple tools of information, a number of conceptual models are formulated that are useful for prediction of the magnitude of monthly precipitation (drought, flood and normal conditionss).

The Relationship between Extreme Precipitation Events in East Africa during the Short Rainy Season and Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature

The East African short rainy season (October-November-December) is one of the major flood seasons in the East African region. The amount of rainfall during the short rainy season is closely related to the lives of the people and the socio-economic development of the area. By using precipitation data and sea surface temperature data, this study reveals the spatial and temporal variation patterns of extreme precipitation during the East African short rainy season. Key findings include significant rainfall variability, with Tanzania experiencing the highest amounts in December due to the southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), while other regions receive less than 100 mm. Extreme rainfall events (90th percentiles) are evenly distributed, averaging 2 to 10 days annually. Historical data shows maximum seasonal rainfall often peaks at 15 mm, with frequent occurrences of daily rainfall exceeding 10 mm during OND. Additionally, a positive correlation (0.48) between OND precipitation extremes and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) anomalies is statistically significant. These findings highlight the climatic variability and potential trends in extreme rainfall events in East Africa, providing valuable insights for regional climate adaptation strategies.

IMPACT OF SSTA OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ON FLOOD SEASON PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN YUNNAN

Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean global SST and wind from the NCEP/NCAR and the observation data of rain seasons in 124 stations of Yunnan province from 1961 to 2006, we applied the analytical methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis and a significance testing method to two sets of samples of average differences. The goal is to investigate into the influence of the Southern Hemispheric(SH) SST on the summer precipitation in Yunnan from January to May so as to identify the key time and marine regions. Physical mechanisms are obtained by analyzing the influence of sea level wind and the key marine regions on the precipitation during Yunnan's rain season.Results show that there is indeed significant relationship between the SST in SH and summer precipitation in Yunnan.The key areas for influencing the summer precipitation are mainly distributed in a region called "West Wind Drift" in the SH, including the Southeast Indian, southern Australia, west coast of eastern Pacific off Chile, Peru and the southwest Atlantic Magellan. Besides, the most significant marine region is the west coast of Chile and Peru(cold-current areas of the eastern Pacific). Diagnostic analysis results also showed that monsoons in the Bay of Bengal, a cross-equatorial flow in the Indian Ocean near the equator and southwest monsoon in India weaken during the warm phase of the Peruvian cold current in the eastern Pacific. Otherwise, they strengthen.

Variation in photosynthetic photon flux density within a tropical seasonal rain forest of Xishuangbanna, south-western China

The effects of canopy development, solar angle, and weather conditions on temporal variation in photosynthetic photon flux density（PPFD） at three heights within a tropical rain forest canopy in Xishuangbanna, China, were examined. PPFD was measured every second and stored as 10-min averages from 1 December 2002 to 30 November 2003. PPFD variability was examined at three different temporal scales. Specific days in March, September, and December with clear and overcast sky conditions were selected to separate the effects of leaf area index（LAI） and solar angle on diurnal variability. On both clear and overcast days, mean daily average PPFD was significantly different between March and September at all heights, except 10 m on clear days, suggesting that LAI directly influences PPFD. In contrast, the differences in daily average PPFD among three heights between September and December were likely due to variation in solar angle. In addition, daily average PPFD at all locations were significantly lower under overcast than clear sky conditions in March, September and December. Over the year-long study, the mean daily total PPFD at 2! m, 10 m and 4 m was 2.8, 2.7 and 0.7 mol/（m^2·d）, which accounted for 9.7%, 9.4% and 2.4% of the daily PPFD above the canopy, respectively. Significant differences in mean daily total PPFD occurred at the same heights among different seasons, and diurnal, day-to-day and seasonal PPFD varied at different heights within the canopy. The possible effects of light variability on physiological and morphological responses of plants are discussed.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DIPOLE OSCILLATION OF SSTA OF INDIAN OCEAN REGION AND PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE IN CHINA

The work is a general survey using SSTA data of the Indian Ocean and of precipitation at 160Chinese weather stations over 1951～1997 (47 years). It reveals that the dipole oscillation of SST, especially the dipole index of March～May, in the eastern and western parts of the ocean correlates well with the precipitation during the June～August raining season in China. As shown in analysis of 500-hPa Northern Hemisphere geopotential height height by NCEP for 1958～1995, the Indian Ocean dipole index (IODI) is closely related with geopotential height anomalies in the middle- and higher- latitudes in the Eurasian region. As a negative phase year of IODI corresponds to significant Pacific-Japan (P J) wavetrain, it is highly likely that the SST for the dipole may affect the precipitation in China through the wavetrain. Additionally, correlation analysis of links between SST dipole index of the Indian Ocean region and air temperature in China also shows good correlation between the former and wintertime temperature in southern China.

Effect of ventilation on thermal and humidity environment of the underground utility tunnel in the plum rain season in southern China:Field measurement and CFD simulation

The underground utility tunnel(UUT)is one of the typical urban underground structures,which usually requires mechanical ventilation systems for forced ventilation.In addition to the ventilation scheme for accident scenarios,the normal operating ventilation scheme deserves equal attention as it has a great impact on the air quality as well as the thermal and humidity environment inside the UUT.In this study,a UUT located in southern China is taken as the research object,and the effect of ventilation on its internal thermal and humidity distribution is explored with a combined use of field measurements and numerical simulations.The results of field measurements show that the average temperature inside the closed UUT is 20.5℃and the average humidity ratio is 14.1 g/kgdry;both are lower than those of the external environment.In the plum rain season,if the tunnel is ventilated without any treatment of the external airflows,surface condensation tends to occur near the air inlet while the region with high relative humidity would be distributed on both sides far from the air inlet.The study also discusses the effect of different temperatures and humidity ratios of the inflow air on the humidity inside the UUT,and on this basis,the humidity control strategy for UUT in the plum rain season is proposed.

Simulation of thermal and humid environment of rural residence envelope inner surface during the plum rains season in Changsha China

The Plum Rains Season(PRS)has the typical characteristics of outdoor air temperature dramatic changes and high air humidity in the hot summer and cold winter region in China.Even if the indoor heat source and moisture production is constant,when the outdoor air temperature rises rapidly during high air humidity PRS,the build-ing envelope temperature heats up much more slower than the indoor air temperature and therefore the wall surface temperature is lower than the indoor air dewpoint which leads to condensation phenomenon,resulting in deterioration of insulation performance,mouldy walls,deterioration of indoor air quality.At present,there is a lack of research on the factors affecting condensation in rural residence during PRS.This paper evaluates the impact of occupants’habit of window opening modes and building construction parameters on the building envelope surface condensation in Changsha during PRS.Using Designer’Simulation Toolkit(DeST)simulated and analysed the impact of key parameters such as window-to-wall ratio,exterior wall reflectivity,window opening mode(open/close),and external wall insulation on the building indoor thermal and humid environment.The condensation risk X is proposed to evaluate the condensation possibility on the building envelope’s inner sur-face.The results show that from the perspective of anti-condensation:The rural residential building in Changsha should balance the window-wall ratio against better natural lighting;Keeping windows closed during PRS can effectively alleviate the condensation problem while the insulation in the external wall layer could aggravate the condensation.