Modeling commuters' route choice behavior under pre-trip information system

Research about the auto commuter＇s pre-trip route choice behavior ignores the combined influence of the real-time information and all respondents＇ historical information in the existing documents.To overcome this shortcoming,an approach to describing the pre-trip route choice behavior with the incorporation of the real-time and historical information is proposed.Two types of real-time information are investigated,which are quantitative information and prescriptive information.By using the bounded rationality theory,the influence of historical information on the real-time information reference process is examined first.Estimation results show that the historical information has a significant influence on the quantitative information reference process,but not on the prescriptive information reference process.Then the route choice behavior is modeled.A comparison is also made among three route choice models,one of which does not incorporate the real-time information reference process,while the others do.Estimation results show that the route choice behavior is better described with the consideration of the reference process of both quantitative and prescriptive information.

Choices of medical institutions and associated factors in older patients with multimorbidity in stabilization period in China:A study based on logistic regression and decision tree model

Background:As China's population ages,its disease spectrum is changing,and the coexistence of multiple chronic diseases has become the norm with respect to the health status of its elderly population.However,the health institution choices of older patients with multimorbidity in stabilization period remains underresearched.This study investigate the factors influencing the choices of older patients with multimorbidity to provide references for the rational allocation of healthcare resources.Methods:A multistage,stratified,whole-group random-sampling method was used to select eligible older patients from September to December of 2022 who attended the Community Health Service Center of Guangdong Province.We adopted a self-designed questionnaire to collect patients'general,diseaserelated,social-support information,their intention to choose a healthcare provider.A binary logistic regression and decision tree model based on the Chi-squared automatic interaction detector algorithm were implemented to analyze the associated factors involved.Results:A total of 998 patients in stabilization period were included in the study,of which 593(59.42%)chose hospital and 405(40.58%)chose primary care.Our binary logistic regression results revealed that age,sex,individual average annual income,educational level,self-reported health status,activities of daily living,alcohol consumption,family doctor contracting,and family supervision of medication or exercise were the principal factors influencing the choice of medical institutions for older patients with multimorbidity(p<0.05).The decision-tree model reflected three levels and 11 nodes,and we screened a total of four influencing factors:activities of daily living,age,a family doctor contract,and patient sex.The data showed that the logistic regression model possessed an accuracy of 72.9%and that the decision tree model exhibited an accuracy of 68.7%.Prediction using the binary logistic regression was thus statistically superior to the categorical decision-tree model based on the Chisquared automatic interaction detector algorithm(Z=3.238,p=0.001).Conclusion:More than half of older patients with multimorbidity in stabilization period chose hospitals for healthcare.Efforts should be made to improve the quality of healthcare services and increase the medical contracting rate and recognition of family doctors so as to attract older patients with multimorbidity to primary medical institutions.

Research on Online Education Consumer Choice Behavior Path Based on Informatization

The application of information and communications technology(ICT)in the education industry is becoming more and more extensive,and online education realized through ICT is developing in full swing.The influence of ICT on online education consumer's choice behavior is the core issue of online education industry development research.The research on the interactive path and methods of information and online education consumer choice behavior is worth exploring and revealing.This study introduces the word-of-mouth factor as a new research variable under the framework of the Rational Choice Theory model(RCT)and the structural equation method to conduct empirical research and theoretical analysis to verify the validity of the hypothesis and model.The fifthGeneration mobile communication system(5 G)analyses the factors affecting online education consumer behavior choices based on the premise of ICT.Research on the path between ICT and choice behavior provides new ideas for online education consumer choice behavior research and ICT and content and provides a new scenario.This article is a cross-disciplinary research content in theory,and its innovation opens up a new path for the management of ICT research.The research results have innovative significance and value at both the theoretical and practical levels.

Research on group expandable optimization decision-making model for construction programme choice

Aiming at the decision-making problem of construction programme choice,this paper advanced a new group expandable optimization decision-making model.Various factors were comprehensively considered,and the new multi-attribute evaluation index system was established.Based on the assumption that decision-makers were rational,this paper formed a group of rational preferences through extracting the personal preferences pertinently,so the decision-makers position matrix was determined.The decision-makers position matrix integrated values given by group decision-makers to construction programme comprised a matrix,of which the entropy theory for datamining was adopted in this paper to determine the attribute weights.A decision was made by using the extension decision method.Eventually,the feasibility and practicability of the model were verified by the example.

Kuhn＇s Notion of Theory Choice and the Dual-Process Theory of Cognition

In The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Kuhn claimed that theory choice is a conversion experience and depends upon the personality or psychology of the individual scientist making the choice. Critics charged Kuhn with an irrational and a relativistic position concerning theory choice, arguing he advocated a subjective instead of an objective approach to how scientists choose one theory over another and thereby undercut epistemic accounts for the generation of scientific knowledge. In response to critics Kuhn insisted that his approach, although subjective, was still rational in that the criteria----vomposed of epistemic values--determining theory choice operate both objectively and subjectively. Recent work in cognitive neuropsychology, particularly in the dual-process theory of cognition, supports Kuhn＇s notion of theory choice. In this paper, I initially discuss Kuhn＇s approach to theory choice, along with criticism of it and his response to the criticism, followed by an examination of the dual-process theory of cognition. I then explore the application of dual-process theory to Kuhn＇s notion of theory choice, especially in terms of a historical case study from the biomedical sciences. I finally discuss briefly the implications of the dual-process theory for contemporary philosophy of science.

Satisficing as an Account of Kuhnian Rationality

The lack of an account of rationality in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions was a lacuna which Thomas Kuhn acutely felt. In this paper, I argue that Herbert Simon＇s notion of ＂satisficing＂ provides a formally well-developed and empirically well-established theory of rationality that fits well with Kuhn＇s general characterization of science. I start by considering two rival interpretations of the problem of Kuhnian rationality and introduce Simon＇s notion of satisficing. In Section 3, I show how satisficing can be used to interpret paradigm, change, rational theory-choice, relativism, and progress. On this account, Kuhnian scientists are not irrational. Rather they employ the same computational mechanism which allows humans to play chess.

边界与弹性:新时代教育评价改革的制度逻辑

新时代教育评价改革需要强化制度层面的认知与执行的双向路径,这正好切合于新制度主义理论关于制度研究主要关注的两个维度,一是属认知的制度分析、二是属实践的制度变迁。故此,在新制度主义理论的基础上,新时代教育评价改革需要依循制度“认知-执行”双向路径对应的“边界-弹性”的双层逻辑框架。认知层上,通过制度分析的相关理论分析,发现新时代教育评价改革的制度认知要基于边界逻辑,即执行主体要理清制度价值层面的“多元”价值边界、主体层面的“规范”权责边界、技术层面的“有限”技术边界,以塑造对制度的理性认知;实践层上,通过制度变迁的相关理论分析,发现新时代教育评价改革的制度执行要基于弹性逻辑,即在制度执行前秉持弹性理念、执行中开展弹性实践以及执行后进行弹性评价,以促使新时代教育评价改革充分落地。

高校教师自愿性流动的效应、困境与出路

高校教师合理有序流动对促进高等教育高质量发展具有重要的现实意义,然而,我国高校教师自愿性流动率长期偏低。高校教师自愿性流动是社会主义市场经济精神的内在要求,对教师具有利益最大化效应、对高校具有促进学科发展效应和“倒逼改革”效应,对国家建设具有推动人才辈出效应。高校教师自愿性流动的困境主要体现在高校教师自愿性流动意愿不足和高校阻碍教师自愿性流动两个方面。前者根源于受教师人力资本水平、学术市场需求、流动机会成本及心理成本的制约;后者根源于高校追求组织利益最大化、高校在与教师的博弈中具有优势地位及制度对高校的阻碍行为缺乏必要的硬性约束。提升高校教师自愿性流动的出路在于:教师应增强自愿性流动能力和意识;高校应消除对教师年龄和学历歧视、“不拘一格”引人才;政府应加大对教师自愿性流动权益的保障力度。

乔恩·埃尔斯特对马克思主义政治哲学的分析与建构

作为当代分析马克思主义的重要代表人物,埃尔斯特对马克思主义的政治哲学做了如下分析与建构:(1)方法论个人主义和理性选择理论作为现代社会科学研究方法,有助于为马克思主义奠定微观基础并增强其解释力。(2)资本主义存在异化、剥削和低效三个严重缺陷,这三个缺陷构成了消灭资本主义的道德应然和历史必然。(3)基于资源禀赋的行为是划分阶级的标准,要形成阶级行动就必须消除集体行动中的“搭便车”现象。(4)资产阶级与统治者之间存在博弈,国家政权因而既具阶级性又有一定公共性。(5)共产主义蕴含两个层级的价值诉求:一是分配正义,二是人的自由发展和自我实现。(6)社会益品和负担的分配适用局部正义原则,按照单一规范进行分配不具现实可行性。

法国国民议会“友台小组”的功能、结构与政治立场动因--以第十五届国民议会为例

欧洲是美国之外台湾当局最主要的“议会外交”方向。国民议会是法国外交政策的积极参与者,其“友台小组”成为台湾当局撬动“议会外交”的重要杠杆。“友台小组”有两大功能:一是在议会内推动出台“友台”涉华法案,在议会外联署公开声明展现“挺台”立场;二是负责协调双方“议员”、官员接触,提升台当局“国际能见度”。该小组共80人,可分为“友美友华派”“反美友华派”“友美反华派”。有三个动因可以解释小组成员的政治态度:一是政党身份对法国政治人物的政治态度有显著影响,执政党联盟在中美间坚持“均势思想”,左翼的对华政策存分歧,右翼总体亲美;二是议员个人意识形态光谱形塑其政治立场;三是作为理性选择之一,议员参加“友台”活动是出于对连任的考量。

情感、理性与选择——叶芝《骸骨之梦》的文学伦理学批评解读

戏剧《骸骨之梦》叙述了男青年从子夜到黎明的思想发展过程,从而对1916年的爱尔兰复活节起义作了隐晦的回应。从文学伦理学批评的角度来看,迪尔米德和德沃吉拉是斯芬克斯式的人物形象。为了私人性的情感纠葛,他们受到兽性因子中自然意志和自由意志的驱使,犯下了引狼入室的非理性罪行。他们身上理性意志的萌生,让其灵魂一直得不到安宁,从而悔恨了700多年。在情感和理性的冲突当中,参与了复活节起义的男青年最终做出了绝不原谅两位卖国者的伦理选择。通过描写迪尔米德和德沃吉拉的“灵魂梦回”以及男青年的坚定选择,叶芝为爱尔兰民众和广大读者提供了伦理警示和道德教诲的实例,推动人们去思考个人、民族、国家等更深入的政治伦理问题。

中国农村基层协商民主制度变迁研究——基于理性选择制度主义视角

农村基层协商民主制度建设是凸显全过程人民民主在广大农村地区治理优势的必然要求,它既是乡村治理的重要内容,也是实现治理有效的关键路径。以理性选择制度主义为视角对农村基层协商民主制度进行研究,根据理性选择制度主义的3种典型制度模式,对农村协商民主制度的子集进行类型划分,突出不同制度集合具有的作为集体决策规则、嵌入委托代理结构的功能性特征,基层试点与顶层设计相结合的总体性特征及强调配套制度辅助、注重程序机制设计的现时性特征,从而弥补当前农村协商民主制度类型学研究的不足。在农村协商民主制度演变过程中,环境设定、利益驱动、主体推动、绩效评价形成了其结构性逻辑,而供需匹配下的制度创新、绩效驱动下的制度扩散、偏好稳定下的制度设计构成了农村协商民主制度变迁的主要内容。在“制度—行为”分析视角下,农村基层协商民主制度的变迁过程是由诸多制度创新点连接起来的,过程中伴随着制度的模仿与扩散,变迁所带来的结果则是全面的顶层制度安排。

教育选择有限理性模型:教育选择阶层分化的两种范式之争及整合路径

关于教育选择阶层分化的机制,长期以来一直存在文化再生产和理性选择两种范式之争。在经验研究中,文化再生产理论占据了相对主导地位。回顾两种理论范式之争的历史,两者争论的焦点在于教育选择阶层分化的机制究竟是理性还是非理性因素占据主导。通过对两种理论范式的优势与缺点进行对比分析发现,单一的理论范式解释力有限,两种理论范式存在整合的可能性和必要性,但目前尚缺乏有效的整合路径。借助西蒙的有限理性模型,可以将两种分析范式整合成更有解释力的教育选择有限理性模型,为具体的经验研究和教育政策的改进提供更有效的理论工具。

规范、制度与选择:大学教师的学术职业发展

从学术职业的视角出发,大学教师职业发展面临内部角色冲突与外部发展理念选择的双重困境。由学术职业历史变迁生成的教学、科研、社会服务三大职能构成了大学教师职业发展的社会规范,社会规范与个人能力间的差距产生了内部角色的张力;国家、市场、学术共同体三种力量相互交织构成大学教师职业发展的学术制度,而学术制度与学术性的内在矛盾塑造了大学教师的利益与理念抉择。从大学教师主体出发,突破困境的核心在于认清自身主观意愿与外在客观条件的现实情况,明晰自身学术职业的发展方向,释放三重角色间的张力,在理念的指引下对利益进行取舍,做出理性选择。

寒门学子艺考的合理性抉择与“三重挑战”

经济资本的匮乏、文化资本的欠缺使寒门学子参加艺考被视为不理性行为,但通过深度访谈和文本分析研究发现,寒门学子艺考是目的合理性行动和文化合理性行动共同驱动的结果,价值合理性在其中仅起辅助作用。在学习艺术的过程中,寒门学子要面对摆脱资本困境的努力与非预期后果的落差、工具理性与价值理性的博弈、机械模仿训练与高雅艺术气息培养间错配的“三重挑战”。将中国社会的文化生产逻辑和底层物语纳入寒门学子艺考的理论矛盾中,在超越“资本欠缺论”中发现,文化资本的区隔具有情境性,寒门学子艺考之路体现了惯习的契合、迟滞与流动;在超越“理性选择论”中发现,寒门学子学艺术过程中存在有限理性的可能,因此在高等教育普及化阶段有必要呼唤价值理性的回归。保障寒门学子艺考的获得感,需要个体、中学、高校和教育主管部门携手努力。

他们为何难以理性地选择中职学校?——基于10名初中毕业生的深度访谈

如何解决中等职业教育生源数量下滑的生存危机,已经成为职业教育改革发展的关键议题。采用深度访谈与类属分析方法,对10名初中毕业生进行质性研究发现:初中毕业生难以理性选择中职学校的关键原因不在于他们对中职学校没有利益需求或个人偏好,而在于他们所获得的中职学校相关信息既不完全,也不准确。在理性相对缺位的情况下,初中毕业生信任社会普遍存在的“职普选择文化”,主动放弃或避免选择中职学校。因此,亟须提升初中毕业生在职普教育选择中的理性水平,提高初中毕业生获知中职学校相关信息的全面性和真实性,推动“职普选择文化”朝着“普通教育与职业教育各方面真正平等”的核心目标变迁,以确保初中毕业生对中职学校的理性选择不会受到不合理文化的侵扰。

理性选择视域下的乡村振兴困境与对策——针对重庆市武隆区堰塘村文旅发展的个案研究

乡村振兴战略是新时代党对“三农”工作的重大决策部署,而理性选择是与乡村振兴战略目标耦合关联的过程。文章通过对重庆市武隆区堰塘村的田野调查,从经济理性、生活理性、文化理性、生态理性和社会理性5个维度对其发展成效与困境进行了剖析,并指出堰塘村发展需要在经济、组织、人才、文化等方面通过统筹产业升级发展、聚用留育专业人才、激发农民主体意识、提升文化供给效能方面加以提升改进。

全球信任赤字的形成原因与生成机制

多重因素加剧世界不稳定性和不确定性,全球信任赤字成为制约国际合作的重要障碍。基于理性选择制度主义,从偏好、行为和结构三个核心维度来看,全球信任赤字形成的原因主要包括:一是国内工具理性思维传导,国际理性思维发展两极化;二是国家间冲突集中表现为压制性竞争和武力对抗;三是国际结构趋于安全阵营化、发展两极化、合作碎片化。三者相互作用影响,致使国际信任呈螺旋式下降。尽管全球信任结构呈现破碎化,但国际结构本身处于动态调整过程后趋向稳定,中国方案有望在其中发挥积极作用。

理性选择:基层社区党组织领办物业行动的生成机理分析

基层党组织、物业企业均在社区治理情境中扮演重要角色,发挥关键作用。基层治理创新实践中,党组织领办物业企业、引领多治理主体良性互动的集体行动的生成机理是一个具有实践探索意义的研究问题。基于理性选择理论视角,审视领办集体行动的逻辑,可以发现:个体偏好是领办这一集体行动中个体初始性触发因素,价值理性、责任规范、制度规范、互惠规范是集体行动聚合的激发因素,内外因素相互作用,生成了党组织领办物业企业集体行动的逻辑。

理性选择制度主义的基础共识和理论范式述评

理性选择制度主义兴盛于20世纪70-80年代,与历史制度主义、社会学制度主义呈鼎足之势,共同构成政治学“新制度主义”理论谱系的支柱。它脱胎于新古典经济学的理性选择理论,经历了政治科学的实证研究和行为主义运动的洗礼,受博弈论等经济和社会理论的影响,坚持将个体视为政治活动的基本单位,将制度视作一种可供选择的人为设计方案和最优对策。在长期遭遇诸多批评和挑战的过程中,理性选择制度主义逐渐形成与其他制度主义范式的融合趋势,呈现为一种具有成长态势的理论和相对开放的研究范式。但就理论和实践的解释力而言,理性选择制度主义还需要回答制度本身是什么等根本问题,才能进一步彰显制度及其理论的价值。