Historical Changes of Ningxia Natural Disasters and Its Reason Analysis

A quantitative model is built and the historical variation of natural disasters is analyzed in this paper,by using materials as affected area(damaged area),affected population(dead and injured),casualty of livestock,collapsed houses(damaged houses),decrease of crops yield,economic loss(direct and indirect) and price index over the same period of Ningxia natural disasters(include drought,flood,gale and hail,frost,pest disasters and other disasters) during 1978-2007,and applying gray correlation analysis method.The long-term changes trend of natural disasters is analyzed by the application of the least squares method for linear trend,and the oscillation period is analyzed by using the maximum entropy statistical method.It is found that natural disasters have basically 2 to 3 years of variation period either in the whole region or in the individual regions;from the mid 1980s to the late 1990s,Ningxia is in an oscillation period with disasters attacked frequently in decadal and interannual scale under the background of climate;the increase of damage intensity of natural disasters slow down and tends to decrease since 2000.

Analysis on the Reason of Local Heavy Rainstorm Forecast Error in the Subtropical High Control

[Objective] The research aimed to study the reason of local heavy rainstorm forecast error in the subtropical high control. [Method] Started from summarizing the reason of forecast error, by using the conventional ground observation data, the upper air sounding data, T639, T213 and European Center (ECMWF) numerical prediction product data, GFS precipitation forecast product of U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, the weather situation, physical quantity field in a heavy rainstorm process which happened in the north of Shaoyang at night on August 5, 2010 were fully analyzed. Based on the numerical analysis forecast product data, the reason of heavy rainstorm forecast error in the subtropical high was comprehensively analyzed by using the comparison and analysis method of forecast and actual situation. [Result] The forecasters didn’t deeply and carefully analyze the weather situation. On the surface, 500 hPa was controlled by the subtropical high, but there was the weak shear line in 700 and 850 hPa. Moreover, they neglected the influences of weak cold air and easterlies wave. The subtropical high quickly weakened, and the system adjustment was too quick. The wind field variations in 850, 700 and 500 hPa which were forecasted by ECMWF had the big error with the actual situation. It was by east about 2 longitudes than the actual situation. In summer forecast, they only considered the intensity and position variations of 500 hPa subtropical high, and neglected the situation variations in the middle, low levels and on the ground. It was the most key element which caused the rainstorm forecast error in the subtropical high. The forecast error of numerical forecast products on the height field situation variation was big. The precipitation forecasts of Japan FSAS, U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction GFS, T639 and T213 were all small. The humidity field forecast value of T639 was small. In the rainstorm forecast, the local rainstorm forecast index and method weren’t used in the forecast practice. In the precipitation forecast process, they only paid attention to the score prediction of station and didn’t value the non-site prediction. Some important physical quantity factors weren’t carefully studied. [Conclusion] The research provided the reference basis for the forecast and early warning of local heavy rainstorm.

Formation Reason Analysis and Defense Countermeasure of Rare Frozen Disaster in Guizhou in 2008

[Objective] The research aimed to discuss the formation reason of low temperature and frozen disaster weather event in Guizhou in 2008.[Method] By using T213,ECMWF numerical forecast data and the conventional meteorological observation data which were provided by MICAPS,according to the variation situations of frozen rain,freezing,road freezing and ground surface 0 ℃ line range,the weather situation evolution characteristic of low temperature and frozen weather process (congelation for short) in Guizhou from January 13 to February 15,2008 was analyzed.The formation reason of low temperature and frozen disaster weather event in Guizhou was discussed,and the defense countermeasure was put forward.[Result] The low temperature and frozen weather process happened when the continuous precipitation was caused by that every scale weather system intersected in Guizhou under the abnormal atmospheric circulation background.East Asian inverted Ω flow type in the northern hemisphere made that the atmospheric circulation stabilized for a long time,and the north branch frontal zone was by south.The polar cold air continued to complement and went south to affect Jiangnan,South China.The south branch westerly fluctuation was active,and the frontal zone intensity of stationary front was big,which maintained for a long time.850 hPa shear line in the low level maintained to swing in the junction of Guangxi and Guizhou,Hunan.The southwest warm and wet airflow continued transporting to the south of China.The cold and warm air intersected in South China,which caused the long-time precipitation in Guizhou.The thermal inversion layer was deep and thick.The long-time precipitation based generally on the light rain.It was easy to form the supercooled water droplet.The verglas range expanded from Guizhou,the south of Hunan to the north of Guangxi.The frozen rain and frozen weather caused the long-time road and wire freezing.The disaster was serious.The ground surface temperature 0 ℃ line covered the cold mountain area in the whole province for a long time.The ground surface freezing was difficult to melt,and the low temperature and frozen weather affected Guizhou for a long time.[Conclusion] The research accumulated the experience for the disaster prevention and reduction of such weather.

Analysis on the Influence of Spring Low Temperature on the Agriculture and the Formation Reason in Liaoning Province in 2010

[Objective] The research aimed to study the influence of spring low temperature on the agriculture and the formation reason in Liaoning Province in 2010. [Method] Based on the synoptics analysis principle, by analyzing the atmospheric circulation situation and satellite cloud map, the influence of spring low temperature on the agriculture and the formation reason of low temperature weather in Liaoning Province during April-May, 2010 were discussed. [Result] The high-altitude situation analysis showed that it was two-trough-two-ridge situation in the high latitude of Eurasia in April, 2010. Ural Mountains high-pressure ridge strengthened to move eastward. Lake Baikal cold air went down toward the southeast along the front of ridge and strengthened into the cold vortex. Liaoning was in the front of cold vortex. Affected by the cold vortex, the temperature in Liaoning area was low. In the first dekad of May, 2010, the activity of cold air was frequent. There were two times cold vortex influence, and the temperature was still low. In the later period of middle dekad of May, the warm ridge entered, and the temperature rose. The high-altitude trough and the low-level jet were the main system and the dynamic condition of precipitation generation respectively. The cold vortex was the main reason of spring continuous low temperature generation, and the secondary reason was the more precipitation. [Conclusion] The research provided the reference basis for the prevention and prediction of spring low temperature in Liaoning Province.

Analysis on Formation Reason of a Local Heavy Rainstorm in Linyi Area

[Objective] The research aimed to study formation reason of a local heavy rainstorm process in Linyi from night on August 3 to early morning on 4th, 2010. [Method] Based on MICAPS weather chart, actual situation data of NECP analysis field, data of automatic encryption station and Doppler radar product, a local heavy rainstorm and extra heavy rainstorm process in Linyi from night on August 3 to early morning on 4th, 2010 was detailedly analyzed from weather background, meso- and micro-scale characteristics, physical mechanisms of occurrences and developments of meso and micro-scale systems. The formation reason of heavy rainstorm process was discussed. Moreover, we tried to find some occurrence rules of short-time strong precipitation. [Result] The local heavy rainstorm process had large short-time rainfall and obvious local characteristics. The main influence systems were subtropical high, westerly trough, meso- and small-scale ground low pressures. It was affected by many systems which had different scales and heights. The up-cold-down-warm unstable stratification accumulated a large number of unstable energy, which was basic condition of strong precipitation occurrence. It was convergence shear line at the bottom layer of airspace. The vertical shear and turbosphere of deep southwest-northwest-easterly airflow were at airspace. The common effect of up and down systems triggered generation of updraft, and made unstable energy release. For the release of unstable energy, after northwest airflow was cut off, the updraft made southwest airflow develop upward. It linked with easterly wave to form new vertical shear, which was a reason of long duration of strong precipitation. The southwest airflow at the edge of subtropical high was water vapor source of precipitation process, which provided sufficient water vapor supply for generation of heavy rainstorm. The system which was developing and strengthening would make the moving speed of system slow down. Then, the rainfall increased. It was a reason of long duration of strong precipitation. [Conclusion] The research accumulated certain experience for forecast work in future.

Analysis on Formation Reason of "0902" Blizzard in Northeast China

[Objective]The research aimed to analyze formation reason of ＂ 0902＂ blizzard in northeast China. [Method]By using timely observation data,NCEP reanalysis data and Doppler radar data at Baishan station,blizzard process in southeast part of northeast China during 12-13 February,2009 was analyzed. [Result]Snowfall zone of the blizzard process was wide,snowfall was more,snowfall gradient was big,and snowfall time relatively concentrated. These characteristics reflected that the blizzard process had significant convection characteristics. Baroclinic disturbance at high-altitude straight frontal zone and ground warm frontogenesis caused by eastward movement and northward advancement of North China low vortex at low altitude were the circulation characteristics in the process. Water vapor from the sea went northward as southwest airflow,and strongly converged in blizzard zone,which provided sufficient water vapor condition for the blizzard. Before heavy snowfall occurred,there was accumulation process of heat and energy. Conditional symmetric instability was main unstable mechanism of the blizzard. During heavy snowfall period,ascending branch of secondary vertical circulation at exit zone of high-altitude jet coupled with ascending branch of secondary vertical circulation of warm frontegenesis at low layer,inducing strong development of the vertical motion. Doppler radar intensity echo revealed that it was easy to generate blizzard in the area where echo intensity was consistently above 20 dBz. Strong wind velocity convergence zone at radical velocity field especially adverse wind zone was favorable for the generation of blizzard. [Conclusion]The research could provide reference for blizzard forecast in northeast China.

Analysis on the Disastrous Weather of Serious Drought in Northwest Hunan in Summer and Autumn of 2009

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the disastrous weather of serious drought in Northwest Hunan in summer and autumn of 2009.[Method] According to the meteorological data in Zhangjiajie of Northwest Hunan during the drought period from June to September,2009,the disaster characteristics of continuous drought in summer and autumn were analyzed.Based on NCEP/NCAR 2.5°×2.5° reanalysis data,by using the climatic diagnostic method,the formation reason of serious drought was initially analyzed from the circulation characteristics in the middle and high latitudes,Western Pacific subtropical high,the abnormal characteristics of sea surface temperature in the equatorial Middle Eastern Pacific Ocean and the tropical system activity.[Result] The characteristics of serious drought in Northwest Hunan in summer and autumn of 2009 were the quick developed speed,wide influence range,long duration,big disaster loss and long high temperature time.The influence range,duration and harm degree were rare to see in the history.During the arid period(June-September),the atmospheric circulation was abnormal.The polar vortex in the northern hemisphere was weak,and the center was by north.It was two-trough-one-ridge type in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia.The long-wave trough existed respectively near Balkhash Lake and from Sea of Okhotsk to the east coast in China.The long-wave ridge maintained from Lake Baikal to Central Asia and stabilized in 90°-110° E of Central Asia.From the middle dekad of June to the middle dekad of September,the westerly index increased.The zonal circulation was the main one in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia.The cold air in the high-latitude frontal zone spread eastward with the small-amplitude fluctuation form along the latitude circle direction,and was difficult to pass the westerly barrier near 45° N to reach the low latitude.Meanwhile,Western Pacific subtropical high jumped northward to control Jiangnan and South China for a long time.The down airflow was prevalent.It was hot and rainless.The drought developed quickly.The sea surface temperature in the equatorial Middle Eastern Pacific Ocean started to rise in June,and it entered into El Nino state.When El Nino event of obvious temperature increasing started to appear in spring and summer,the plum rain amount was less in the middle and low reaches of Yangtze River in the year or next year.The probability was 80%.In El Nino year,the typhoon was less.In addition,for the influence of strong Western Pacific subtropical high,the landing pathway of typhoon was by east or south.The kind of typhoon had the small role for easing the drought in Northwest Hunan.[Conclusion] The research provided the theory basis for improving the prediction level of short-term climate and the understanding of extreme climate event.

Behaviors analysis of on-coming cluster based on knowledge under cluster security requirements

Analysis of cluster behaviors of the on-coming cluster is an essential measure for high value locations on the battlefield.Unlike target tracking and clustering analysis,cluster behaviors analysis under cluster security requirements remains an open issue,which is a joint analysis of clus-tering,intent reasoning and activity regions.To address this issue,a framework for cluster behav-iors analysis is proposed by incorporating expert knowledge and domain knowledge,and a knowledge-assisted score function with is designed to improve the accuracy of intent reasoning net-work,overcoming the effects of possible knowledge errors.The framework consists of three mod-ules for cluster analysis,intent reasoning and activity region analysis for typical tasks,in which an intent reasoning network is constructed to obtain cluster intents by using a hybrid knowledge and data driven approach.Furthermore,considering the complexity of the battlefield environment,dif-ferent tasks and corresponding activity region optimization functions are designed for cluster activ-ity region analysis,which are vital elements of cluster behaviors analysis.Simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed cluster behaviors analysis framework.