Rebound effect and its decomposition-an analysis based on energy types in China

Rebound effect derived from energy efficiency improvement has been widely invested.However,most of studies focus on the rebound effect of the energy composite level and neither distinguish nor compare different energy types.We compare the differences in energy saving and energy rebound between primary and secondary energy sources,and further decompose the rebound effect into production rebound part and final demand component.To do so,we add a module for rebound into a comparative state China-CGE model.We design and test two simulation scenarios using the model.In Scenario 1,all production sectors' energy efficiency of using primary energy increases by 5%.In Scenario 2,all production sectors' energy efficiency of using secondary energy increases by 5%.The results show that Scenario 2 leads to more GDP growth and more energy saving.Our scenarios show rebound effects range between 9.6% and 27.9%,and in general are higher when energy efficiency of using primary energy sources is improved.Our decomposition analysis shows that improving energy efficiency in production sectors would stimulates energy use of final demand.Indeed,the consumption side has significant contribution to rebound in secondary energy use,especially in crude oil and gas.This study reveals that improving efficiency of using secondary energy is better than improving that of primary energy,both in terms of economic impact and energy rebound.And complementary policies that prevent energy services prices from falling too much can be adopted to reduce rebound.Controlling residential energy use could also be effective in reducing rebound,this has particular implication to economies in which residential energy consumption are far from saturation.

Energy Efficiency and Rebound Effect:Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy?

The aim of this study is to examine the theoric and empirical literature about “rebound effect”. This study summarizes energy efficiency policy and programs in general and in Turkey. Also it gives defination of the “rebound effect” concept. The rebound effect is related to consumer’s tendency to consume more energy due to economic benefit from efficiency improvement. The ‘rebound effect’ is the focus of a long-running dispute of energy economics but it is very new concept in the most developing countries. In literature according to some economist gains in energy efficiency will also reduce the real per unit price of energy services and hence the consumption of energy will rise and partially offset the initial reduction in the usage of energy sources. However for others size of the rebound effect is too small to take attention. The empirical literature shows that the size of rebound effect can change from country to country and sector to sector.

The rebound effect of dematerialization and decoupling:a case of energy efficiency

The two essential terms in environmental sciences-dematerialization and decoupling-have always been controversial. This study aims to trace the evolution path on the methodologies, the evidences and the policies, and to reflect on the implications of the development. We specifically present several classical definitions so as to summarize the similarities and differences thereinafter. Several commonly used methodologies, which are employed for evaluating the levels of dematerialization and decoupling, are discussed. As expected, the empirical evidences rarely support the absolute dematerialization and decoupling, which challenge the relevant policies implemented worldwide. In this context, the rebound effect, which is regarded as the main obstacle, is necessary to be examined in the various sectors and areas. However, the results of the rebound levels are far from unanimous. This article has a further discussion on the possible direction for the inconclusive debate in a broader perspective.

Direct energy rebound effect for road transportation in China

The enhancement of energy efficiency stands as the principal avenue for attaining energy conservation and emissions reduction objectives within the realm of road transportation.Nevertheless,it is imperative to acknowledge that these objectives may,in part or in entirety,be offset by the phenomenon known as the energy rebound effect(ERE).To quantify the long-term EREs and short-term EREs specific to China’s road transportation,this study employed panel cointegration and panel error correction models,accounting for asymmetric price effects.The findings reveal the following:The long-term EREs observed in road passenger transportation and road freight transportation range from 13%to 25%and 14%to 48%,respectively;in contrast,the short-term EREs in road passenger transportation and road freight transportation span from 36%to 41%and 3.9%to 32%,respectively.It is noteworthy that the EREs associated with road passenger transportation and road freight transportation represent a partial rebound effect,falling short of reaching the magnitude of a counterproductive backfire effect.This leads to the inference that the upsurge in energy consumption within the road transportation sector cannot be solely attributed to advancements in energy efficiency.Instead,various factors,including income levels,the scale of commodity trade,and industrial structure,exert more substantial facilitating influences.Furthermore,the escalation of fuel prices fails to dampen the demand for energy services,whether in the domain of road passenger transportation or road freight transportation.In light of these conclusions,recommendations are proffered for the formulation of energy efficiency policies pertinent to road transportation.

The rebound effect on energy efficiency improvements in China’s transportation sector:A CGE analysis

Energy use is becoming more efficient due to technological innovations.We focused on the transportation sector in China to develop a national multisector computable general equilibrium(CGE)model for analyzing the rebound effect from an improvement of 10%in the energy efficiency.We compared the size of the energy rebound effect at both the macroeconomic and sectoral levels in different transportation modal subsectors,namely rail,road,water,and air travel.The findings showed that the magnitude of the rebound effect varies across the transportation modes.This is particularly true for the air transportation sector,which has an economy-wide rebound effect of 30.1%and an own-sector rebound effect of 74.6%because of a sharp increase in the export demand for air transport services.We also quantitatively evaluated the contribution of energy efficiency improvement in the transportation sector to China’s economic growth and carbon reductions and found a positive dividend effect on the economy as well as the environment.The modeling results suggest that improving overall transportation energy efficiency by 10%generates an economy-wide welfare gain of approximately 29 billion yuan,while 19 billion yuan are attributable to a more efficient road transportation subsector.Furthermore,to offset the effects of these mode-specific rebound effects,we simulated the effectiveness of different policies and solutions.These included economic instruments in the form of energy,environmental,and carbon taxes,household transport consumption structure adjustments,and energy structure adjustments.This study revealed that combining these sustainable development policies offers opportunities for economy-wide multisectoral improvements in energy savings,emissions reduction,and economic benefits.

Energy rebound effect in China's manufacturing sector:Fresh evidence fromfirm-level data

The rebound effect refers to the phenomenon that individuals tend to consume more energy in the face of energy efficiency improvement,which reduces the expected energy-saving effect.Previous empirical studies on the rebound effect of regions and sectors do not provide microscopic evidence.To fill this gap,we use China's firmlevel data to estimate the rebound effect in China's manufacturing subsectors,providing a detailed picture of China's rebound effect across different sectors and different regions in 2001-2008.Results show that a partial rebound effect robustly appears in all industries,and the disparity between sectors is quite broad,ranging from 43.2%to 96.8%.As for the dynamic rebound effect of subsectors,most subsectors present an upward trend,whereas few subsectors show a clear downward trend.As a whole,the declined trend of the rebound effect is driven by the descent of minority sectors with high energy consumption and high energy-saving potential.In addition,we find that the disparity of the rebound effect across sectors is more significant than that across regions.

农业碳排放回弹及机制分析———基于农业技术进步的视角

新发展格局下,探究农业碳排放回弹效应及其影响机制对减排政策制定意义重大。利用1990—2020年中国29个省份的面板数据,采用非期望产出超效率SBM模型、GML指数分解、空间动态面板系统GMM模型,分析技术进步引致的碳排放回弹效应及其影响机制。研究发现:中国农业碳排放存在“部分回弹效应”,回弹效应均值约为0.88,表明技术进步带来的减排作用,会被回弹效应部分抵消。时间维度上,大部分年份表现出“回火效应”,表明在这些年份,技术进步反而致使农业碳排放总量增加;空间维度上,东北地区的碳排放回弹效应最大,且存在“回火效应”,西部地区回弹效应最小。机制分析发现,农业技术进步确实导致了农业碳排放回弹效应。农业技术进步通过提升农业碳排放效率直接引致回弹效应,通过促进农地经营规模扩大间接加剧回弹效应。

新能源回弹效应的理论逻辑、生成机理及规制取向

能源技术变革与能源效率的提升,既促进了新能源产品的推广与应用,也引致了新能源回弹效应。通过阐释新能源回弹效应的理论逻辑和生成机理,进而探讨该效应的规制取向。研究结果表明:在短期内,新能源及其产品的生产与消费可能呈现明显的回弹效应;在新能源政策的制定及其相关制度安排中,应审慎考虑新能源回弹效应的制约,建议完善新能源政策设计机制、优化新能源政策工具组合、扩大新能源消费节能减排效应。

数字经济、要素作用转变与城市碳排放——基于调节效应和门槛效应的检验

利用我国280个地级及以上城市的面板数据,基于要素作用转变视角系统探究数字经济对碳排放的影响及作用机制,通过构建调节效应模型,分别实证检验了数字经济对人口、经济和技术三种主要碳排放要素的调节作用,并进一步考察了SFA测算方法下技术进步在数字化驱动减排过程中的门槛异质效应。研究发现:数字经济与碳排放之间存在显著的倒U型关系;数字经济对碳减排的影响具有边际报酬递减的后发劣势,非特大城市以及三、四、五线城市将是未来数字化驱动减排的难点和痛点;城市数字经济的发展能明显改善传统经济要素、人口要素与碳排放之间的正相关关系,但却引发了技术要素的回弹效应;技术水平在数字经济减排效应中发挥着“双门槛”作用。因此,应加快能源结构转型,推进城市群和智慧城市建设,强化产业数字化转型和数字人才培育,积极推广碳交易制度,助力“双碳”目标实现。

中国粮食生产用水绿色效率与回弹效应研究——基于三阶段超效率SBM-Malmquist模型

提高粮食生产用水绿色效率是降低农业用水规模、实现农业绿色发展的有效途径之一。基于中国31个省(市、自治区)2010—2020年面板数据,以粮食生产水足迹作为投入指标,粮食生产灰水足迹作为非期望产出,采用三阶段超效率SBM-Malmquist指数模型,对中国粮食生产用水绿色效率进行评价,在此基础上,测算技术进步条件下粮食生产用水的回弹效应。结果表明:(1)种植结构、灌溉技术和氮肥施用量等因素对粮食生产用水效率影响显著;不同粮食生产水足迹、灰水足迹存在显著差异;灰水足迹平均增长速度排名为:中部>东部>西部。(2)外部环境对中国粮食生产用水绿色效率具有显著影响;剔除环境因素后,综合技术效率均值下降0.147,纯技术效率均值和规模效率均值分别下降0.018、0.250;粮食生产用水全要素生产率整体处于优化阶段,其主要依赖于技术进步变化。(3)技术作为提高农业水资源利用效率的主导因素,很大程度上影响了中国粮食生产用水回弹效应的变化节奏。除东部地区2017年粮食生产用水未产生回弹效应外,其他年份均存在回弹效应,农业节水技术地区发展不平衡特征明显。建议加强农业水资源管理,深挖用水效率提升潜力,优化粮食生产要素投入结构,推动节水技术推广与应用,从而减轻水环境污染,实现农业绿色可持续发展。

碳排放“回弹效应”是否存在?——基于数字金融发展视角的机制研究

数字金融是近年来的金融新业态,其发展对实现碳中和、碳达峰具有重要意义。研究发现,数字金融的规模效应、结构效应、技术效应和政策效应均会对碳排放产生不同影响;数字金融发展显著降低碳排放,同时会引发碳排放回弹效应,而异质性分析表明,第三产业的碳排放回弹效应并不明显。进一步使用调节效应模型探究回弹效应的影响机制,发现经济规模的增长会部分抵消数字金融的减碳效果,而绿色技术进步和环保政策实施会加强数字金融的减碳效果,产业结构的变化对碳排放的影响则存在异质性。因此,为实现碳达峰、碳中和目标,需要协调经济增长和产业结构之间的关系,加强绿色技术研发投入,统筹制订科学合理的环境政策。

新疆生产建设兵团农业碳排放回弹效应研究

碳排放回弹效应能够反应地区低碳减排效果。本研究基于2007-2020年间新疆生产建设兵团农业面板数据,测算由农业技术进步引起的农业碳排放回弹效应,并通过LMDI指数分析模型对农业碳排放回弹量进行影响因素分解。结果表明:1)兵团各师市农业碳排放总量峰值出现在2015年,碳排放总量变化呈现整体上升趋势;2)兵团各师市普遍存在农业碳排放回弹效应且地区差距较大,个别师市存在“回火效应”,技术减碳效果仍有提升空间;3)对兵团农业碳排放回弹量LMDI分解发现溢出效应和技术效应对农业碳排放回弹效应存在抑制作用,单产效应和面积效应对农业碳排放回弹效应存在正向驱动作用。基于此,建议兵团继续进行技术研发以增加农业要素生产效率,减少农业碳排放面积回弹效应和单产回弹效应并加快农业绿色发展。

中国家庭资源消费的二氧化碳反弹效应研究——基于“水-能源-粮食”系统视角

二氧化碳反弹效应是造成碳排放效率改进与碳排放量增长“相伴而行”的深层原因。为了进一步释放我国家庭资源消费的节能减排潜力,本文在探究家庭“水-能源-粮食”系统二氧化碳反弹效应(CRE)产生机制的基础上,首先利用IPCC碳排放系数法分别核算2015—2020年我国30个省份(自治区、直辖市)家庭用水消费、家庭能源消费、家庭粮食消费的二氧化碳排放量,然后再运用可变系数面板数据模型估算家庭“水-能源-粮食”系统的二氧化碳反弹效应,并且还分析了影响二氧化碳反弹效应的主要因素。研究结果表明:1)2015—2020年我国家庭“水-能源-粮食”系统的二氧化碳排放量在30个省份之间呈现出了异质性特征。具体而言,2015—2020年我国各省份家庭用水消费的二氧化碳排放量整体变化比较平稳,基本处于稳定状态;家庭能源消费的二氧化碳排放量整体呈现出了上升趋势;家庭粮食消费的二氧化碳排放量在大多省份呈现出了持平状态或者下降趋势。2)2015—2020年我国各省份家庭“水-能源-粮食”系统的二氧化碳反弹效应类型有回火效应、部分反弹效应、超级节能效应3种,其中家庭用水消费的二氧化碳反弹效应的主要类型为部分反弹效应和超级节能效应,家庭能源消费的二氧化碳反弹效应的主要类型为部分反弹效应,家庭粮食消费的二氧化碳反弹效应的主要类型为超级节能效应。3)家庭人均可支配收入和家庭规模是影响我国各省份家庭“水-能源-粮食”系统二氧化碳反弹效应的主要因素。我国各省份家庭人均可支配收入水平与家庭用水消费二氧化碳反弹效应的变化趋势较为一致,而家庭规模则与家庭能源消费二氧化碳反弹效应的变化趋势比较一致。

区域创新能力对绿色发展效率的影响

在当前倡导低碳发展、高质量发展的背景下,探究区域创新能力对经济效益和环境效益的影响具有重要意义。文章主要从经济增长效应、资源与环境效应、结构优化效应和回弹效应的角度出发,提出其相互之间线性与非线性关系假设。同时,采用双向固定面板模型、系统GMM模型以及中介效应模型,实证2006—2020年间我国区域创新能力对绿色发展效率的影响,并进行内生性检验、稳健性检验、机制检验以及异质性检验等。实证研究表明,区域创新能力对绿色发展效率呈现出显著的非线性影响和先抑制后促进的“U”型变化。当重视绿色创新且创新效率提高时,区域创新能力对绿色发展效率显示出显著的促进作用;创新的增长效率对绿色发展效率具有“遮掩效应”,同时区域创新能力会通过资源和环境效益、结构优化效益促进绿色发展效率;从区域异质性来看,我国东部和西部地区的区域创新能力对绿色发展效率仍然呈现出显著的“U”型变化关系,而其在中部地区的影响并不明显。

农业能源碳排放回弹效应:时空演变及影响机制——基于农业技术进步视角

理清农业技术进步与能源碳排放回弹效应之间的关系,有助于加快中国农业绿色发展、实现“双碳”目标。基于2011—2020年的中国省际面板数据,在构建农业能源碳排放回弹效应模型的基础上,使用系统GMM模型检验农业技术进步对农业能源碳排放回弹效应的影响机制。结果表明:2012—2020年,中国农业能源碳排放回弹效应为0.9661,总体呈现部分回弹效应;当年处于部分回弹效应的省份,一至两年后转为回火效应;处于过度储存效应的省份,一至两年后呈现弱回弹效应或回火效应;不同区域农业能源碳排放回弹效应呈现下降、差异缩小的态势;农业技术进步通过提高农业能源效率、扩大农户种植规模和促进种植结构“经济化”,引致农业能源碳排放回弹效应。

农业灌溉用水效率悖论:技术进步与反弹效应--基于京津冀面板数据的实证分析

农业节水技术被认为是提高农业用水效率、减少农业用水总量的关键途径。然而,农业技术的进步导致农业用水效率的提高一定会减少区域农业用水总量么?通过构建农业用水反弹效应模型,利用2000—2019年京津冀地区的农业生产面板数据,运用Malmquist指数测算农业技术进步增长率,进而估算京津冀地区的农业用水反弹效应。研究结果表明:(1)节水灌溉技术的使用有效减少了农业灌溉用水,京津冀三地均存在不同程度的农业用水反弹效应。北京市农业用水反弹效应最低,天津市次之,河北省最高。(2)三个地区农业用水反弹效应年际波动较为明显,大体呈现出下降趋势。(3)农业灌溉面积、耗水作物面积、农业用水管理是影响农业用水反弹效应的关键因素。据此,政府应从加大节水宣传、完善农业水权水价市场、发展基层农业用水组织等方面降低农业用水反弹效应。

绿色技术创新与碳排放效率:影响机制及回弹效应

推动绿色技术创新,加快构建绿色低碳循环发展经济体系,已成为推进减污降碳协同增效的内在要求。基于发明型与改进型绿色技术创新视角,分析绿色技术创新对碳排放效率的影响及其区域异质性,并采用中介效应模型检验其作用机理,同时,采用调节效应模型进一步探究绿色技术创新对碳排放效率的“回弹效应”。研究结果显示:首先,发明型和改进型绿色技术创新总体上均有利于提升碳排放效率,其中,改进型绿色技术创新的提升作用更大且存在显著的区域异质性;其次,环境规制和产业结构高级化在发明型与改进型绿色技术创新对碳排放效率的影响中存在部分中介效应,而城镇化则存在遮掩效应。此外,不同绿色技术创新对碳排放效率的影响存在明显的“回弹效应”,且发明型绿色技术创新对碳排放效率的“回弹效应”大于改进型绿色技术创新。

考虑反弹效应的空调负荷可调潜力评估与控制策略研究

当前需求侧响应研究以需求侧响应发生时段为研究重点,很少关注需求侧响应后反弹效应对电网的冲击。文章提出了一种考虑反弹效应的空调负荷可调潜力评估与控制策略。首先,从统计学角度出发,选取空调负荷运行功率和室外温度两个特征,基于用户历史数据评估空调负荷的可调潜力区间。然后,以负荷历史功率在不同温度出现的频率衡量负荷可削减的难易程度,建立用户激励成本模型,并以负荷聚合商激励成本与通信成本之和最小为目标函数,建立用户挑选模型。最后,为减轻用电反弹现象对于电网的冲击,轮换选取不同用户参与需求侧响应,提出了一种考虑反弹效应的时序循环控制策略。通过美国Pecan数据集分析不同削减量下全员参与策略、增加延迟单元策略与所提的时序循环控制策略的平抑反弹效应效果,验证了所提策略的有效性。

我国地方政府公共服务支出“回弹效应”:机制与检验

从2003年中央政府明确提出“建立预算绩效评价体系”,到2018年强调加快建成全方位、全过程、全覆盖的预算绩效管理体系,中国的财政资金使用效益得到了显著的提升。由于预算绩效管理提质增效与健全国家公共服务制度体系紧密相关,因此财政支出效率的变化会影响地方政府的公共服务投入意愿。首先,借鉴能源回弹效应,从收入效应与替代效应两方面阐释财政支出效率影响公共服务投入规模的理论机制。其次,利用2007—2019年中国31个省份相关数据建立实证模型,分析得到地方政府公共服务支出效率和支出比重之间存在着显著的倒U型关系,即地方政府公共服务支出效率在达到一定的临界值前,支出效率提高会促进当地公共服务支出比重的增加,表现为“直接回弹效应”;而在地方政府公共服务支出效率超过这一临界点后,公共服务支出比重则会不增反减。另外,某地的经济增长预期目标越高,效率改善带来的“替代效应”会越快地超过“收入效应”,导致在一个较低的支出效率值下,支出比重随之下降,因此地方政府经济增长目标约束会对支出效率和支出比重的倒U型关系产生调节效应,说明中国公共服务支出效率的提升也并不一定会促进地方政府增加相应的财政投入,导致这种变化的原因是地方政府较强的经济竞争压力和较低的财政自主度水平。

新疆农业技术进步下农业用水反弹效应测算

【目的/意义】引入农业用水反弹效应对新疆各地区进行量化评级,研究新疆地区农业技术进步对农业用水总量和节水效果的推动影响程度,为新疆分地区农业技术节水提供改进依据。【方法/过程】基于2005—2020年新疆地区各地州面板数据,运用DEA模型测算新疆地区农业技术进步率,通过带有农业技术进步率的农业用水反弹效应结合实际情况,探究农业节水技术进步、农业用水反弹效应、农业用水总量之间关系。【结果/结论】结果表明:(1)新疆地区及各地州农业技术进步率为正值且均值大于0.9;(2)新疆地区用水反弹效应均值为0.96,农业节水技术增加了水资源利用效率减少了农业用水总量,但效果并不明显;(3)各地州反弹效应各有不同且均出现了不同程度的农业用水反弹效应,其中南疆地区反弹效应最为平均且总反弹最低,北疆地区反弹效应分布离散且出现“回火”现象,东疆地区较为平均;(4)农业技术进步对新疆各地州农业用水反弹效应影响显著。据此提出相应改进措施,包括:加强种植结构调整,实行“以水定地”差异化执行和监管措施,加快水利工程建设,推进用水分级补贴政策,因地制宜推出节水政策等。