Recurrence scoring system predicting early recurrence for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma undergoing pancreatectomy and portomesenteric vein resection

BACKGROUND Pancreatectomy with concomitant portomesenteric vein resection(PVR)enables patients with portomesenteric vein(PV)involvement to achieve radical resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma,however,early recurrence(ER)is frequently observed.AIM To predict ER and identify patients at high risk of ER for individualized therapy.METHODS Totally 238 patients undergoing pancreatectomy and PVR were retrospectively enrolled and were allocated to the training or validating cohort.Univariate Cox and LASSO regression analyses were performed to construct serum recurrence score(SRS)based on 26 serum-derived parameters.Uni-and multivariate Cox regression analyses of SRS and 18 clinicopathological variables were performed to establish a Nomogram.Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy.Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test.RESULTS Independent serum-derived recurrence-relevant factors of LASSO regression model,including postoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9,postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen,postoperative carbohydrate antigen 125,preoperative albumin(ALB),preoperative platelet to ALB ratio,and postoperative platelets to lymphocytes ratio,were used to construct SRS[area under the curve(AUC):0.855,95%CI:0.786–0.924].Independent risk factors of recurrence,including SRS[hazard ratio(HR):1.688,95%CI:1.075-2.652],pain(HR:1.653,95%CI:1.052-2.598),perineural invasion(HR:2.070,95%CI:0.827-5.182),and PV invasion(HR:1.603,95%CI:1.063-2.417),were used to establish the recurrence nomogram(AUC:0.869,95%CI:0.803-0.934).Patients with either SRS>0.53 or recurrence nomogram score>4.23 were considered at high risk for ER,and had poor long-term outcomes.CONCLUSION The recurrence scoring system unique for pancreatectomy and PVR,will help clinicians in predicting recurrence efficiently and identifying patients at high risk of ER for individualized therapy.

Identifying timing and risk factors for early recurrence of resectable rectal cancer: A single center retrospective study

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common malignancy and various methods have been introduced to decrease the possibility of recurrence.Early recurrence(ER)is related to worse prognosis.To date,few observational studies have reported on the analysis of rectal cancer.Hence,we reported on the timing and risk factors for the ER of resectable rectal cancer at our institute.AIM To analyze a cohort of patients with local and/or distant recurrence following the radical resection of the primary tumor.METHODS Data were retrospectively collected from the institutional database from March 2011 to January 2021.Clinicopathological data at diagnosis,perioperative and postoperative data,and first recurrence were collected and analyzed.ER was defined via receiver operating characteristic curve.Prognostic factors were evaluated using the Kaplan–Meier method and Cox proportional hazards modeling.RESULTS We included 131 patients.The optimal cut off value of recurrence-free survival(RFS)to differentiate between ER(n=55,41.9%)and late recurrence(LR)(n=76,58.1%)was 8 mo.The median post-recurrence survival(PRS)of ER and LR was 1.4 mo and 2.9 mo,respectively(P=0.008)but PRS was not strongly associated with RFS(R^(2)=0.04).Risk factors included age≥70 years[hazard ratio(HR)=1.752,P=0.047],preoperative concurrent chemoradiotherapy(HR=3.683,P<0.001),colostomy creation(HR=2.221,P=0.036),and length of stay>9 d(HR=0.441,P=0.006).CONCLUSION RFS of 8 mo was the optimal cut-off value.Although ER was not associated with PRS,it was still related to prognosis;thus,intense surveillance is recommended.

Leveraging machine learning for early recurrence prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma:A step towards precision medicine

The high rate of early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)post curative surgical intervention poses a substantial clinical hurdle,impacting patient outcomes and complicating postoperative management.The advent of machine learning provides a unique opportunity to harness vast datasets,identifying subtle patterns and factors that elude conventional prognostic methods.Machine learning models,equipped with the ability to analyse intricate relationships within datasets,have shown promise in predicting outcomes in various medical disciplines.In the context of HCC,the application of machine learning to predict early recurrence holds potential for personalized postoperative care strategies.This editorial comments on the study carried out exploring the merits and efficacy of random survival forests(RSF)in identifying significant risk factors for recurrence,stratifying patients at low and high risk of HCC recurrence and comparing this to traditional COX proportional hazard models(CPH).In doing so,the study demonstrated that the RSF models are superior to traditional CPH models in predicting recurrence of HCC and represent a giant leap towards precision medicine.

Early gastric cancer recurrence after endoscopic submucosal dissection:Not to be ignored!

This editorial comments on the article“Efficacy of multi-slice spiral computed tomography in evaluating gastric cancer recurrence after endoscopic submucosal dissection”.We focus on the importance of paying more attention to postendoscopic submucosal dissection(ESD)gastric cancer recurrence in patients with early gastric cancer(EGC)and how to manage it effectively.ESD has been a wellknown treatment and the mainstay for EGC,with the advantages of less invasion and fewer complications when compared with traditional surgical procedures.Despite a lower local recurrence rate after ESD,the problem of postoperative recurrence in patients with EGC has become increasingly non-ignorable with the global popularization of ESD technology and the increasing number of post-ESD patients.

Computed tomography-based radiomics to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma post-hepatectomy in patients background on cirrhosis

BACKGROUND The prognosis for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)in the presence of cirrhosis is unfavourable,primarily attributable to the high incidence of recurrence.AIM To develop a machine learning model for predicting early recurrence(ER)of posthepatectomy HCC in patients with cirrhosis and to stratify patients’overall survival(OS)based on the predicted risk of recurrence.METHODS In this retrospective study,214 HCC patients with cirrhosis who underwent curative hepatectomy were examined.Radiomics feature selection was conducted using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and recursive feature elimination methods.Clinical-radiologic features were selected through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.Five machine learning methods were used for model comparison,aiming to identify the optimal model.The model’s performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve[area under the curve(AUC)],calibration,and decision curve analysis.Additionally,the Kaplan-Meier(K-M)curve was used to evaluate the stratification effect of the model on patient OS.RESULTS Within this study,the most effective predictive performance for ER of post-hepatectomy HCC in the background of cirrhosis was demonstrated by a model that integrated radiomics features and clinical-radiologic features.In the training cohort,this model attained an AUC of 0.844,while in the validation cohort,it achieved a value of 0.790.The K-M curves illustrated that the combined model not only facilitated risk stratification but also exhibited significant discriminatory ability concerning patients’OS.CONCLUSION The combined model,integrating both radiomics and clinical-radiologic characteristics,exhibited excellent performance in HCC with cirrhosis.The K-M curves assessing OS revealed statistically significant differences.

Postoperative serum tumor markers-based nomogram predicting early recurrence for patients undergoing radical resections of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND Early recurrence(ER)is associated with dismal outcomes in patients undergoing radical resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma(PDAC).Approaches for predicting ER will help clinicians in implementing individualized adjuvant therapies.Postoperative serum tumor markers(STMs)are indicators of tumor progression and may improve current systems for predicting ER.AIM To establish an improved nomogram based on postoperative STMs to predict ER in PDAC.METHODS We retrospectively enrolled 282 patients who underwent radical resection for PDAC at our institute between 2019 and 2021.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses of variables with or without postoperative STMs,were performed to identify independent risk factors for ER.A nomogram was constructed based on the independent postoperative STMs.Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to evaluate the area under the curve(AUC)of the nomogram.Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier survival plot and log-rank test.RESULTS Postoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 and carcinoembryonic antigen levels,preoperative carbohydrate antigen 125 levels,perineural invasion,and pTNM stage III were independent risk factors for ER in PDAC.The postoperative STMs-based nomogram(AUC:0.774,95%CI:0.713-0.835)had superior accuracy in predicting ER compared with the nomogram without postoperative STMs(AUC:0.688,95%CI:0.625-0.750)(P=0.016).Patients with a recurrence nomogram score(RNS)>1.56 were at high risk for ER,and had significantly poorer recurrence-free survival[median:3.08 months,interquartile range(IQR):1.80-8.15]than those with RNS≤1.56(14.00 months,IQR:6.67-24.80),P<0.001).CONCLUSION The postoperative STMs-based nomogram improves the predictive accuracy of ER in PDAC,stratifies the risk of ER,and identifies patients at high risk of ER for tailored adjuvant therapies.

Network Structure and Variability of Recurrence Fear in Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer:A Symptom Network Analysis

Background:Lung cancer,one of the most prevalent and deadly malignancies worldwide,not only poses a significant physical burden but also a profound psychological challenge to patients.Among these psychological challenges,the fear of recurrence stands out as a particularly distressing issue.This fear,often rooted in the patients’past experiences with the disease and its treatment,can significantly impact their quality of life,mental health,and even compliance with follow-up care.Moreover,this fear can be exacerbated by the lack of understanding and support from healthcare professionals and family members,further isolating patients and compounding their psychological burden.Therefore,understanding and addressing the fear of recurrence in lung cancer patients is crucial for improving their overall well-being and outcomes.Aims:This study aims to develop a symptom network model for fear of recurrence in early-stage lung cancer patients,analyzing symptom correlations to enhance healthcare providers’understanding and management of these symptoms,thereby improving patient outcomes and quality of life.Design:A cross-sectional study design was used.Method:We employed convenience sampling to recruit 551 lung cancer patients from the Thoracic Surgery Department of a tertiary hospital in Beijing between January 2023 and December 2023.A cross-sectional study was conducted using the General Information Questionnaire,Fear of Disease Progression Scale,and Level of Hope Scale.Network analysis was performed with JASP 0.18.3.0 using the EBICglasso method,and centrality metrics including Betweenness,Closeness,Degree centrality,and Expected influence were calculated.Results:Symptom network analysis identified fear of family impact and future work disruption as central to recurrence fear in these patients.Gender-based analysis revealed‘fear of being unable to continue work’as central in males,while‘fear of affecting family members’was central in females.Among adolescents,concerns about future work,medication side effects,and family impact showed the highest expected influence.In contrast,older patients predominantly feared major treatment implications.One-way ANOVA indicated that older age correlated with reduced recurrence fear,and higher hope levels significantly mitigated this fear.Conclusion:This study broadens understanding of fear of recurrence across demographic variables like gender and age,elucidating symptom interrelations and impacts.Future strategies should focus on patient-specific differences in recurrence fear to formulate targeted interventions.Relevance to Clinical Practice:Through in-depth analysis of the symptom network,healthcare professionals can more comprehensively understand the psychological responses of lung cancer patients when they face the risk of recurrence,and then formulate more precise and personalized treatment plans.At the same time,doctors and nurses can adjust treatment strategies in a timely manner according to the changes in the patient’s symptom network and provide more comprehensive psychological support,thus enhancing the patient’s treatment adherence and outcome.Patient Contribution:People who were invited to participate voluntarily completed a range of questionnaires.

Prognostic factors of early recurrence after complete cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy

BACKGROUND Although cytoreductive surgery(CRS)and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy(HIPEC)offer the potential for long-term survival in peritoneal carcinomatosis,outcomes following CRS/HIPEC vary significantly.AIM To identify the clinical factors associated with progression-free survival(PFS)after complete CRS/HIPEC in patients with colorectal/high-grade appendiceal,ovarian,and gastric cancers.METHODS We retrospectively evaluated the risk of recurrence within 1 year after CRS/HIPEC and its impact on overall survival(OS)in patients recruited between 2015 and 2020.Logistic regression models were used to assess the prognostic factors for the risk of recurrence within 1 year.Kaplan–Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between recurrence and OS.RESULTS Of the 80 enrolled patients,39 had an unfavorable PFS(<1 year)and 41 had a favorable PFS(≥1 year).Simple logistic models revealed that the patients with a completeness of cytoreduction score of 0(CC-0)or length of CRS≤6 h had a favorable PFS[odds ratio(OR)=0.141,P=0.004;and OR=0.361,P=0.027,respectively].In multiple logistic regression,achieving CC-0 was the strongest prognostic factor for a favorable PFS(OR=0.131,P=0.005).A peritoneal cancer index score>12 was associated with a lower rate of achieving CC-0(P=0.027).The favorable PFS group had a significantly longer OS(median 81.7 mo vs 17.0 mo,P<0.001).CONCLUSION Achieving CC-0 was associated with a lower early recurrence rate and improved long-term survival.This study underscores the importance of selecting appropriate candidates for CRS/HIPEC to manage peritoneal carcinomatosis.

Pre-operative enhanced magnetic resonance imaging combined with clinical features predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after radical resection

BACKGROUND Indentifying predictive factors for postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)has great significance for patient prognosis.AIM To explore the value of gadolinium ethoxybenzyl diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid(Gd-EOB-DTPA)enhanced magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)combined with clinical features in predicting early recurrence of HCC after resection.METHODS A total of 161 patients with pathologically confirmed HCC were enrolled.The patients were divided into early recurrence and non-early recurrence group based on the follow-up results.The clinical,laboratory,pathological results and Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI imaging features were analyzed.RESULTS Of 161 patients,73 had early recurrence and 88 were had non-early recurrence.Univariate analysis showed that patient age,gender,serum alpha-fetoprotein level,the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage,China liver cancer(CNLC)stage,microvascular invasion(MVI),pathological satellite focus,tumor size,tumor number,tumor boundary,tumor capsule,intratumoral necrosis,portal vein tumor thrombus,large vessel invasion,nonperipheral washout,peritumoral enhancement,hepatobiliary phase(HBP)/tumor signal intensity(SI)/peritumoral SI,HBP peritumoral low signal and peritumoral delay enhancement were significantly associated with early recurrence of HCC after operation.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that patient age,MVI,CNLC stage,tumor boundary and large vessel invasion were independent predictive factors.External data validation indicated that the area under the curve of the combined predictors was 0.861,suggesting that multivariate logistic regression was a reasonable predictive model for early recurrence of HCC.CONCLUSION Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI combined with clinical features would help predicting the early recurrence of HCC after operation.

Predictors of early and late hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence

Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)is the most frequent liver neoplasm,and its incidence rates are constantly increasing.Despite the availability of potentially curative treatments(liver transplantation,surgical resection,thermal ablation),long-term outcomes are affected by a high recurrence rate(up to 70%of cases 5 years after treatment).HCC recurrence within 2 years of treatment is defined as“early”and is generally caused by the occult intrahepatic spread of the primary neoplasm and related to the tumor burden.A recurrence that occurs after 2 years of treatment is defined as“late”and is related to de novo HCC,independent of the primary neoplasm.Early HCC recurrence has a significantly poorer prognosis and outcome than late recurrence.Different pathogenesis corresponds to different predictors of the risk of early or late recurrence.An adequate knowledge of predictive factors and recurrence risk stratification guides the therapeutic strategy and post-treatment surveillance.Patients at high risk of HCC recurrence should be referred to treatments with the lowest recurrence rate and when standardized to combined or adjuvant therapy regimens.This review aimed to expose the recurrence predictors and examine the differences between predictors of early and late recurrence.

Development of a machine learning-based model for predicting risk of early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND Surgical resection is the primary treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).However,studies indicate that nearly 70%of patients experience HCC recurrence within five years following hepatectomy.The earlier the recurrence,the worse the prognosis.Current studies on postoperative recurrence primarily rely on postoperative pathology and patient clinical data,which are lagging.Hence,developing a new pre-operative prediction model for postoperative recurrence is crucial for guiding individualized treatment of HCC patients and enhancing their prognosis.AIM To identify key variables in pre-operative clinical and imaging data using machine learning algorithms to construct multiple risk prediction models for early postoperative recurrence of HCC.METHODS The demographic and clinical data of 371 HCC patients were collected for this retrospective study.These data were randomly divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 8:2.The training set was analyzed,and key feature variables with predictive value for early HCC recurrence were selected to construct six different machine learning prediction models.Each model was evaluated,and the bestperforming model was selected for interpreting the importance of each variable.Finally,an online calculator based on the model was generated for daily clinical practice.RESULTS Following machine learning analysis,eight key feature variables(age,intratumoral arteries,alpha-fetoprotein,preoperative blood glucose,number of tumors,glucose-to-lymphocyte ratio,liver cirrhosis,and pre-operative platelets)were selected to construct six different prediction models.The XGBoost model outperformed other models,with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the training,validation,and test datasets being 0.993(95%confidence interval:0.982-1.000),0.734(0.601-0.867),and 0.706(0.585-0.827),respectively.Calibration curve and decision curve analysis indicated that the XGBoost model also had good predictive performance and clinical application value.CONCLUSION The XGBoost model exhibits superior performance and is a reliable tool for predicting early postoperative HCC recurrence.This model may guide surgical strategies and postoperative individualized medicine.

Radiomics model based on contrast-enhanced computed tomography to predict early recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after radical resection

BACKGROUND Radical resection remains an effective strategy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).Unfortunately,the postoperative early recurrence(recurrence within 2 years)rate is still high.AIM To develop a radiomics model based on preoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomography(CECT)to evaluate early recurrence in HCC patients with a single tumour.METHODS We enrolled a total of 402 HCC patients from two centres who were diagnosed with a single tumour and underwent radical resection.First,the features from the portal venous and arterial phases of CECT were extracted based on the region of interest,and the early recurrence-related radiomics features were selected via the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator proportional hazards model(LASSO Cox)to determine radiomics scores for each patient.Then,the clinicopathologic data were combined to develop a model to predict early recurrence by Cox regression.Finally,we evaluated the prediction performance of this model by multiple methods.RESULTS A total of 1915 radiomics features were extracted from CECT images,and 31 of them were used to determine the radiomics scores,which showed a significant difference between the early recurrence and nonearly recurrence groups.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that radiomics scores and serum alphafetoprotein were independent indicators,and they were used to develop a combined model to predict early recurrence.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values for the training and validation cohorts were 0.77 and 0.74,respectively,while the C-indices were 0.712 and 0.674,respectively.The calibration curves and decision curve analysis showed satisfactory accuracy and clinical utilities.Kaplan-Meier curves based on recurrence-free survival and overall survival showed significant differences.CONCLUSION The preoperative radiomics model was shown to be effective for predicting early recurrence among HCC patients with a single tumour.

Metastatic bone cancer as a recurrence of early gastric cancer - characteristics and possible mechanisms

The surgical outcome of most early gastric cancer （EGC） is usually satisfactory. Some cases show bone metastasis even though the depth of cancer invasion is confined to the mucosa. The most frequent site for recurrence of EGC is the liver. Cases of EGC with bone metastasis are reviewed to clarify the clinicopathological characteristics of EGC giving rise to bone metastasis. Possible mechanisms and risk factors underlying this rare condition are proposed. Forty-six cases of bone metastasis from EGC are reviewed from published reports and meeting proceedings in Japan. This investigation suggests that risk factors for bone metastasis from EGC include depressed-type signet-ring cell carcinoma, poorly differentiated carcinoma, and/or the likely involvement of lymph node metastasis, even though the cancer is confined to the gastric mucosa. The risk factors do not include recurrence of EGC in the liver. We speculate that the mechanism of bone metastasis from EGC is via lymphatic channels and systemic circulation. Postoperative follow-up of cases should consider the development of bone metastasis from EGC. We propose the use of elevated alkaline phosphatase levels for the detection of bone metastasis and recommend bone scintigraphy in positive cases. 2005 The WJG Press and Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

The 10-Year Local Recurrence and Partial Breast Radiotherapy for Early Breast Cancer Treated by Conservative Surgery

To study the local recurrence and the role of whole breast radiotherapy for early breast cancer treated by conservative surgery. METHODS From April 1990 to December 2000, 49 patients with early primary breast cancer were treated by conservative surgery in our hospital. The cases were comprised of Stage 0, 1; Stage Ⅰ, 31; and Stage Ⅱa, 17. Forty cases underwent quadrantectomy plus axillary lymph node dissection, and the other 9 cases had lumpectomy alone. Irradiation, which was received by 39 patients, was administered by using low tangential half fields with 6 MV X-ray to decrease the pulmonary irradiative volume. The dose to the whole breast was 45 Gy/22 ～23f/4.5W, then a 15 Gy boost dose was delivered to the tumor bed by an electron beam. The other patients underwent an irradiated regional field according to postoperative pathology. RESULTS All patients were followed-up for 10 years or more. The 10- year local recurrence rates, distant metastasis rates and survival rates were 6.1%, 4.1% and 98.0% respectively. All of the 3 patients who had a local recurrence had infiltrative carcinomas and negative lymph nodes. The 10-year local recurrence rate was higher （2.6% vs. 20.0%） with nonpostoperative whole breast radootherapy, but the statistical difference was not marked because of the low number of cases. All of the recurrent lesions localized within 3 cm of the primary lesion. CONCLUSION Original recurrence of the tumor was the main type of local recurrence. Radiotherapy after conservative surgery is very essential. After conservative surgery it is feasible that irradiation can be delivered alone to the neighboring region of the tumor bed. Partial breast radiotherapy can substitute for whole breast radiotherapy.

Optimal duration of the early and late recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

AIM: To determine the best cut-off value between the early and late recurrence periods after the initial recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).METHODS: The clinical records of 404 patients who underwent macroscopic curative hepatectomy for HCC between 1980 and 2010 were retrospectively examined. We divided the 252 patients experienced a recurrence of HCC into two groups, the early and late recurrence groups using the "minimum P-value" approach. Factors for early recurrence were investigated using all 404 patients, and factors related to late recurrence were investigated in the patients who were confirmed to be recurrence free at the end of the early recurrence period.RESULTS: For the 252 patients who experienced a recurrence, the optimal cut-off value for differentiating early and late recurrence based on the overall survival after initial recurrence was 17 mo(5-year overall survival after initial recurrence: 15.4% vs 36.3%, P = 0.000018). Cox proportional hazard analysis identified early recurrence(P = 0.003) as one of the independent prognostic factors associated with overall survival after initial recurrence. A logistic regression model showed that an alpha-fetoprotein level > 100 ng/m L(P < 0.001), multiple HCC(P < 0.001), serosal invasion(P = 0.031), and microvascular invasion(P = 0.012) were independent factors associated with early recurrence, whereas the only independent factor related to late recurrence was liver cirrhosis(P = 0.002).CONCLUSION: Seventeen months after hepatectomy is a useful cut-off value between early and late recurrence of HCC based on the prognosis and different etiologies.

Patients with early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma have poor prognosis

BACKGROUND： Early recurrence （ER） after hepatic resection （HR） is a poor prognostic factor for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma （HCC）. This study aimed to identify the clinico- pathological features, outcomes, and risk factors for ER after HR for small HCC in order to clarify the reasons why ER is a worse recurrence pattern. METHODS： We retrospectively examined 130 patients who underwent HR for small HCC （___30 mm）. Recurrence was clas- sifted into ER （〈2 years） and late recurrence （LR） （_〉2 years）. The clinicopathological features, outcomes, and risk factors for ER were analyzed by multivariate analysis. RESULTS： ER was observed in 39 patients （30.0%）. The sur- vival rate of the ER group was significantly lower than that of the LR group （P〈0.005）, and ER was an independent prognos- tic factor for poor survival （P=0.0001）. The ER group had a significantly higher frequency （P=0.0039） and shorter interval （P=0.027） of development to carcinoma beyond the Milan criteria （DBMC） compared with the LR group, and ER was an independent risk factor for DBMC （P〈0.0001）. Multi-nodularity, non-simple nodular type, and microvascular invasion were independent predictors for ER （P=0.012, 0.010, and 0.019, respectively）.CONCLUSIONS： ER was a highly malignant recurrence pattern associated with DBMC and subsequent poor survival after HR for small HCC. Multi-nodularity, non-simple nodular type, and microvascular invasion predict ER, and taking these factors into consideration may be useful for the decision of the treatment strategy for small HCC after HR.

Risk factors for local recurrence after en bloc endoscopic submucosal dissection for early gastric cancer

AIM: To investigate factors related to recurrence following en bloc resection using endoscopic submucosal dissection(ESD) in patients with early gastric cancer(EGC). METHODS: A total of 1121 patients(1215 lesions) who had undergone ESD for gastric neoplasia between April 2003 and May 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. Data from 401 patients(415 lesions) were analyzed, following the exclusion of those who underwent piecemeal resection, with deep resection margin invasion or lateral margin infiltration, and diagnosed with benign lesions. RESULTS: Local recurrence after en bloc ESD was found in 36 cases(8.7%). Unclear resection margins, long procedure times, and narrow safety margins were identified as risk factors for recurrence. Lesions located in the upper third of the stomach showed a higher rate of recurrence than those located in the lower third of the stomach(OR = 2.9, P = 0.03). The probability of no recurrence for up to 24 mo was 79.9% in those with a safety resection margin ≤ 1 mm and 89.5% in those with a margin > 1 mm(log-rank test, P = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Even in cases in which en bloc ESD is performed for EGC, local recurrence still occurs. To reduce local recurrences, more careful assessment will be needed prior to the implementation of ESD in casesin which the tumor is located in the upper third of the stomach. In addition, clear identification of tumor boundaries as well as the securing of sufficient safety resection margins will be important.

Early extrahepatic recurrence as a pivotal factor for survival after hepatocellular carcinoma resection:A 15-year observational study

BACKGROUND Surgical resection is one of the most widely used modalities for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).Early extrahepatic recurrence(EHR)of HCC after surgical resection is considered to be closely associated with poor prognosis.However,data regarding risk factors and survival outcomes of early EHR after surgical resection remain scarce.AIM To investigate the clinical features and risk factors of early EHR and elucidate its association with survival outcomes.METHODS From January 2004 to December 2019,we enrolled treatment-naïve patients who were≥18 years and underwent surgical resection for HCC in two tertiary academic centers.After excluding patients with tumor types other than HCC and/or ineligible data,this retrospective study finally included 779 patients.Surgical resection of HCC was performed according to the physicians’decisions and the EHR was diagnosed based on contrast-enhanced computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging,and pathologic confirmation was performed in selected patients.Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify the variables associated with EHR.RESULTS Early EHR within 2 years after surgery was diagnosed in 9.5%of patients during a median followup period of 4.4 years.The recurrence-free survival period was 5.2 mo,and the median time to EHR was 8.8 mo in patients with early EHR.In 52.7%of patients with early EHR,EHR occurred as the first recurrence of HCC after surgical resection.On multivariate analysis,serum albumin<4.0 g/dL,serum alkaline phosphatase>100 U/L,surgical margin involvement,venous and/or lymphatic involvement,satellite nodules,tumor necrosis detected by pathology,tumor size≥7 cm,and macrovascular invasion were determined as risk factors associated with early EHR.After sub-categorizing the patients according to the number of risk factors,the rates of both EHR and survival showed a significant correlation with the risk of early EHR.Furthermore,multivariate analysis revealed that early EHR was associated with substantially worse survival outcomes(Hazard ratio,6.77;95%confidence interval,4.81-9.52;P<0.001).CONCLUSION Early EHR significantly deteriorates the survival of patients with HCC,and our identified risk factors may predict the clinical outcomes and aid in postoperative strategies for improving survival.

Prediction of early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation based on computed tomography radiomics nomogram

Background:Early recurrence results in poor prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)after liver transplantation(LT).This study aimed to explore the value of computed tomography(CT)-based radiomics nomogram in predicting early recurrence of patients with HCC after LT.Methods:A cohort of 151 patients with HCC who underwent LT between December 2013 and July 2019 were retrospectively enrolled.A total of 1218 features were extracted from enhanced CT images.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm(LASSO)logistic regression was used for dimension reduction and radiomics signature building.The clinical model was constructed after the analysis of clin-ical factors,and the nomogram was constructed by introducing the radiomics signature into the clinical model.The predictive performance and clinical usefulness of the three models were evaluated using re-ceiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis and decision curve analysis(DCA),respectively.Cali-bration curves were plotted to assess the calibration of the nomogram.Results:There were significant differences in radiomics signature among early recurrence patients and non-early recurrence patients in the training cohort(P<0.001)and validation cohort(P<0.001).The nomogram showed the best predictive performance,with the largest area under the ROC curve in the training(0.882)and validation(0.917)cohorts.Hosmer-Lemeshow testing confirmed that the nomogram showed good calibration in the training(P=0.138)and validation(P=0.396)cohorts.DCA showed if the threshold probability is within 0.06-1,the nomogram had better clinical usefulness than the clinical model.Conclusions:Our CT-based radiomics nomogram can preoperatively predict the risk of early recurrence in patients with HCC after LT.

Preoperative serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels predict early recurrence after the resection of early-stage pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma(PDAC)is a serious disease with a poor prognosis.Only a minority of patients undergo surgery due to the advanced stage of the disease,and patients with early-stage disease,who are expected to have a better prognosis,often experience recurrence.Thus,it is important to identify the risk factors for early recurrence and to develop an adequate treatment plan.AIM To evaluate the predictive factors associated with the early recurrence of earlystage PDAC.METHODS This study enrolled 407 patients with stage I PDAC undergoing upfront surgical resection between January 2000 and April 2016.Early recurrence was defined as a diagnosis of recurrence within 6 mo of surgery.The optimal cutoff values were determined by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)analyses.Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the risk factors for early recurrence.RESULTS Of the 407 patients,98 patients(24.1%)experienced early disease recurrence:26(26.5%)local and 72(73.5%)distant sites.In total,253(62.2%)patients received adjuvant chemotherapy.On ROC curve analysis,the optimal cutoff values for early recurrence were 70 U/mL and 2.85 cm for carbohydrate antigen 19-9(CA 19-9)levels and tumor size,respectively.Of the 181 patients with CA 19-9 level>70 U/mL,59(32.6%)had early recurrence,compared to 39(17.4%)of 226 patients with CA 19-9 level≤70 U/mL(P<0.001).Multivariate analysis revealed that CA 19-9 level>70 U/mL(P=0.006),tumor size>2.85 cm(P=0.004),poor differentiation(P=0.008),and non-adjuvant chemotherapy(P=0.025)were significant risk factors for early recurrence in early-stage PDAC.CONCLUSION Elevated CA 19-9 level(cutoff value>70 U/mL)can be a reliable predictive factor for early recurrence in early-stage PDAC.As adjuvant chemotherapy can prevent early recurrence,it should be recommended for patients susceptible to early recurrence.